Dolphins (

18.5) at
Bucs (

29.5)

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>

• Miami has struggled to move the ball offensively but their relative strength matches up well here with the weakness of the Bucs defense
• Tampa Bay is coming off an ugly, emotional win at New England. They should be focused here and want to play a clean game to get back on track after a poor offensive showing
• This game sets up as one that could have a lot of plays due to the likelihood that Miami leans pass-heavy, and the efficiency with which the Bucs should move the ball
• Dolphins Head Coach Brian Flores is a Belichick disciple and is likely to try to implement a similar plan to the one New England used to slow down Tampa last week

How miami Will Try To Win ::

Miami’s offensive line is a mess. Ranked 26th in adjusted sack rate and 27th in adjusted line yards, they are poor in both the run and pass game. The result has been Jacoby Brissett attempting 119 passes over the past three weeks to the tune of 583 passing yards, an average of 4.9 yards per attempt. To put that in perspective, the lowest team in yards per attempt in 2020 was the Eagles at 6.2, and there are currently six teams in the NFL averaging more yards per RUSH than the Dolphins are getting from Brissett pass attempts. The Dolphins also have the 29th ranked rushing offense by DVOA and are facing Tampa’s top-5 run defense, making it highly unlikely they have success on the ground. 

The weakness of the Tampa defense has been their secondary as they have given up some very good performances this year. However, with the ineptness of the Dolphins offensive line, it is unlikely Miami will be able to truly attack that weakness. There really isn’t a whole lot further that we need to dig here, as incompetence in the trenches stomps out any other things the Dolphins would try to exploit in this game. Miami will need a host of things to go their way — some fluky bounces, busted coverages or missed tackles, maybe a key injury for the Bucs early — in order to keep this one close into the second half.

How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::

There are two issues at play here that will dictate how Tampa Bay approaches this game. First, Miami’s defense definitely encourages offenses towards a run-heavy approach due to their high-end personnel in the secondary and poor middle of the defense. Second, the Bucs offense (and Tom Brady in particular) looked the worst they have all season last week at New England. 

Last week, I had the Edge writeup for the Colts/Dolphins game and talked about how the Colts were likely to attack that run defense weakness, in what was projected as a very competitive game, and the Colts lacking high-end passing game talent. This week could not be more different. The Bucs are ten point favorites and have to view the Dolphins as a team they can and should take it to. Elite teams like the Bucs do not have their tendencies decided by inferior competition, rather they dictate terms to the teams they are facing. By that I mean, sure the Bucs know they can probably run the ball on the Dolphins here but they also believe in who they are and won’t be skewing to some crazy run-heavy splits just to exploit that. Coming off last week’s ugly game, I expect the Bucs to want to put up a clean game with some explosiveness and chunk plays.

After a great 2020 season, the Dolphins’ pass defense has been disappointing by their standards to start the season and is not going to strike fear in the Bucs. All-Pro CB Xavien Howard has been disappointing by his standards, ranking 47th among qualifying CBs in PFF coverage grade. If Howard shadows, it would likely be to follow Mike Evans, but all of the Bucs WRs are talented enough to win any matchup. Even if Howard were to play at his All-Pro level from past seasons, the Bucs have the weapons to simply target other matchups. If the Bucs can score points early, the Dolphins have almost no chance with Jacoby Brissett throwing dump-offs all game. This is the 2021 NFL, you don’t go about trying to score bunches of points by pounding the ball up the middle against bad teams when you have an MVP candidate as your quarterback.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The Bucs should be aggressive in this spot against a struggling team that they should be able to move the ball on with relative ease. The Bucs will also likely be aggressive on the defensive side of the ball, as Brissett fails to push the ball down the field; with the 31st graded pass-blocking offensive line by PFF, the Bucs will be able to mask their secondary deficiencies by getting to the quarterback early and often. This game has all the makings of a rout, with Tampa motivated and focused while Miami is going to have huge struggles to put points up while also struggling to keep Brady from moving the ball down the field. Because the Dolphins are likely to throw a lot of short passes, there is also a good chance that the Bucs see more opportunities in terms of drives and play volume than you would usually see in a spot like this. Tom Brady is not one to take his foot off the gas early and will likely stay aggressive deep into this game, even with a lead.

DFS+ Interpretation ::