Kickoff Sunday, Oct 10th 1:00pm Eastern

Dolphins (
18.5) at

Bucs (
29.5)

Over/Under 48.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Dolphins Run D
21st DVOA/8th Yards allowed per carry
Buccaneers Run O
29th DVOA/32nd Yards per carry
Dolphins Pass D
18th DVOA/12th Yards allowed per pass
Buccaneers Pass O
15th DVOA/6th Yards per pass
Buccaneers Run D
11th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per carry
Dolphins Run O
3rd DVOA/1st Yards per carry
Buccaneers Pass D
15th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per pass
Dolphins Pass O
2nd DVOA/2nd Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>
  • Miami has struggled to move the ball offensively but their relative strength matches up well here with the weakness of the Bucs defense
  • Tampa Bay is coming off an ugly, emotional win at New England. They should be focused here and want to play a clean game to get back on track after a poor offensive showing
  • This game sets up as one that could have a lot of plays due to the likelihood that Miami leans pass-heavy, and the efficiency with which the Bucs should move the ball
  • Dolphins Head Coach Brian Flores is a Belichick disciple and is likely to try to implement a similar plan to the one New England used to slow down Tampa last week

How miami Will Try To Win ::

Miami’s offensive line is a mess. Ranked 26th in adjusted sack rate and 27th in adjusted line yards, they are poor in both the run and pass game. The result has been Jacoby Brissett attempting 119 passes over the past three weeks to the tune of 583 passing yards, an average of 4.9 yards per attempt. To put that in perspective, the lowest team in yards per attempt in 2020 was the Eagles at 6.2, and there are currently six teams in the NFL averaging more yards per RUSH than the Dolphins are getting from Brissett pass attempts. The Dolphins also have the 29th ranked rushing offense by DVOA and are facing Tampa’s top-5 run defense, making it highly unlikely they have success on the ground. 

The weakness of the Tampa defense has been their secondary as they have given up some very good performances this year. However, with the ineptness of the Dolphins offensive line, it is unlikely Miami will be able to truly attack that weakness. There really isn’t a whole lot further that we need to dig here, as incompetence in the trenches stomps out any other things the Dolphins would try to exploit in this game. Miami will need a host of things to go their way — some fluky bounces, busted coverages or missed tackles, maybe a key injury for the Bucs early — in order to keep this one close into the second half.

How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::

There are two issues at play here that will dictate how Tampa Bay approaches this game. First, Miami’s defense definitely encourages offenses towards a run-heavy approach due to their high-end personnel in the secondary and poor middle of the defense. Second, the Bucs offense (and Tom Brady in particular) looked the worst they have all season last week at New England. 

Last week, I had the Edge writeup for the Colts/Dolphins game and talked about how the Colts were likely to attack that run defense weakness, in what was projected as a very competitive game, and the Colts lacking high-end passing game talent. This week could not be more different. The Bucs are ten point favorites and have to view the Dolphins as a team they can and should take it to. Elite teams like the Bucs do not have their tendencies decided by inferior competition, rather they dictate terms to the teams they are facing. By that I mean, sure the Bucs know they can probably run the ball on the Dolphins here but they also believe in who they are and won’t be skewing to some crazy run-heavy splits just to exploit that. Coming off last week’s ugly game, I expect the Bucs to want to put up a clean game with some explosiveness and chunk plays.

After a great 2020 season, the Dolphins’ pass defense has been disappointing by their standards to start the season and is not going to strike fear in the Bucs. All-Pro CB Xavien Howard has been disappointing by his standards, ranking 47th among qualifying CBs in PFF coverage grade. If Howard shadows, it would likely be to follow Mike Evans, but all of the Bucs WRs are talented enough to win any matchup. Even if Howard were to play at his All-Pro level from past seasons, the Bucs have the weapons to simply target other matchups. If the Bucs can score points early, the Dolphins have almost no chance with Jacoby Brissett throwing dump-offs all game. This is the 2021 NFL, you don’t go about trying to score bunches of points by pounding the ball up the middle against bad teams when you have an MVP candidate as your quarterback.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The Bucs should be aggressive in this spot against a struggling team that they should be able to move the ball on with relative ease. The Bucs will also likely be aggressive on the defensive side of the ball, as Brissett fails to push the ball down the field; with the 31st graded pass-blocking offensive line by PFF, the Bucs will be able to mask their secondary deficiencies by getting to the quarterback early and often. This game has all the makings of a rout, with Tampa motivated and focused while Miami is going to have huge struggles to put points up while also struggling to keep Brady from moving the ball down the field. Because the Dolphins are likely to throw a lot of short passes, there is also a good chance that the Bucs see more opportunities in terms of drives and play volume than you would usually see in a spot like this. Tom Brady is not one to take his foot off the gas early and will likely stay aggressive deep into this game, even with a lead.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Alex88 >>

OVERVIEW

  • Tampa Bay has the third highest implied team total of Week 5
  • Miami has the second lowest
  • Tampa’s -10.5 spread is the largest in Week 5
  • Tampa is 4-1 ATS in their last five games
  • Tampa is ranked first in adjusted pass rate, per numberFire
  • Miami ranks seventh in adjust pass rate

Jacoby Brissett

  • Brissett ranks 24th in PFF grade among QBs
  • Brissett has two seasons as a starter under his belt, 2017 & 2019 in Indianapolis
  • His ranking in PFF grades were 39th & 44th, respectively
  • In those seasons, he averaged 13.9 & 15.8 DK ppg
  • He’s averaging 18.03 this year
  • In all 32 career games, Brissett has exceeded 25 DK pts just twice
  • TB ranks 29th in DK ppg allowed to QBs (26)

MIA Passing Attack

  • MIA has used 11 personnel on 55% of snaps and 12 personnel on 33%
  • Team snap shares: DeVante Parker 80.2% // Jaylen Waddle 77.6% // Mike Gesicki 60.5% // Durham Smythe 43.7% // Albert Wilson 33.5% // Will Fuller 31.1% // Adam Shaheen 25.9%
  • Target shares: Parker 21.3% // Waddle 20.7% // Gesicki 17.3%
  • No other WR or TE has received 10% of targets through four weeks
  • Fuller is now on IR
  • Albert Wilson had 2 and 6 targets in the games before Fuller made his debut
  • Parker ranks 17th in air yards, 16th in air yard market share, and 21st in WOPR among all players
  • He’s averaging 11.8 DK ppg this year
  • Out of 37 games in which his team’s implied total was 20 or less, here are Parker’s notable DK outputs: 24.6 // 21.6 // 21.9 // 22.4 // 23.5 // 37.9 // 24.7
  • Waddle’s DK log: 16.1 // 9.8 // 17.8 // 6.3
  • Waddle leads the WRs in slot usage (77.4%)
  • Slot WRs against TB this season: Cedrick Wilson 3/3-24-0 // Russell Gage 5/7-28-0 // Cooper Kupp 9/12-96-2 // Jakobi Meyers 8/11-70-0
  • Albert Wilson has hit 20+ DK points just three times out of 69 games
  • TB ranks 32nd in DK ppg to WRs (56.1)
  • Gesicki is 4th in air yards, 7th in target share, 2nd in air yard market share, 6th in WOPR, and 12th in DK ppg among all TEs this year
  • His DK log: 7.1 // 18.6 // 16.7
  • Gesicki’s notable DK scores out of 21 games with an implied total of 20 or less: 15.5 // 18.9 // 13.4 // 30
  • TB ranks 30th in DK ppg to TEs (17.5)

MIA RBs

  • Team snap shares: Myles Gaskin 49% // Malcolm Brown 35.7% // Salvon Ahmed 16.7%
  • Target shares: Gaskin 10.7% // Ahmed 5.3% // Brown 2%
  • Touches per game: Gaskin 10.2 // Brown 6.5 // Ahmed 4
  • Brown has 8 red zone opportunities to Ahmed’s 3 and Gaskin’s 1
  • Gaskin’s DK log this season: 12.6 // 8.3 // 10.4 // 0.3
  • When his team is implied for 20 or fewer points, Gaskin has never hit 15 pts (only 5 games in the sample)
  • Tampa ranked 2nd in DK ppg to RBs in 2019 (17.1), 9th in 2020 (20.9), and currently 8th (19.7)

Tom Brady

  • Tom Brady holds the highest PFF grade among QBs through four games
  • Week 4 was the first time Brady did not score a passing TD since a 3-38 loss versus New Orleans in Week 9 last season
  • Brady has averaged 23.73 DK ppg as a Buccaneer
  • In 23 games, he has topped 30 pts 8 times
  • He’s scored at least 25 pts 11 times (48%)
  • Brady leads the league in attempts and completions within the red zone (3rd in TDs)
  • MIA ranks 11th in DK ppg to QBs (18.9)

TB Passing Attack

  • Tampa uses 11 personnel on 67% of snaps and 12 personnel on 22%
  • Team snap shares: Chris Godwin 94.3% // Mike Evans 84.9% // Gronk 54.8% // Brate 43.7% // Antonio Brown 39.4% // OJ Howard 29.4% // Scotty Miller 25.9% // Tyler Johnson 25.4%
  • Target shares: Evans 20.1% // Godwin 16.8% // Brown 11.4% // Gronk 11.4% // Brate 6.5%
  • Evans’s target counts: 6 // 9 // 10 // 12
  • Godwin’s: 14 // 5 // 7 // 5
  • Brown’s: 7 // 3 // – // 11
  • Gronk’s: 8 // 5 // 7 // –
  • Godwin ranks 4th in snap share among all players
  • Evans ranks 7th in total air yards
  • No Tampa WR ranks in the top 25 in target share, air yard market share, or WOPR
  • Godwin’s DK log this season: 27.5 // 16.2 // 19.6 // 8.5
  • Evans: 5.4 // 24.5 // 21.6 // 14.5
  • Brown: 26.7 // 2.7 // 13.3
  • MIA ranks 12th in ppg to WRs (33.9)
  • Gronk is tied for 1st among all players in red zone receiving TDs (4)
  • Among TEs, he’s 10th in targets, 9th in air yards, 10th in target share, 11th in air yard market share, 10th in WOPR, and 2nd in DK ppg (19.5)
  • Gronk’s DK log: 29 // 19.9 // 9.5
  • Gronk will now miss several weeks
  • Howard has blocked on 26.8% of his passing snaps
  • Brate has blocked on just 2.2%
  • Brate has run a route on 94.4% of his passing snaps to Howard’s 68.3%
  • MIA ranks 22nd in ppg to TEs (15.5)

TB RBs

  • Team snap shares: Leonard Fournette 58.4% // Ronald Jones 20.4% // Giovani Bernard 20.1%
  • Target shares: Fournette 10.3% // Gio 8.2% // Ronald 1.6%
  • Touches per game: Fournette 14.8 // Ronald 5.5 // Gio 4.3
  • Fournette’s DK log: 10.9 // 11.6 // 6.4 // 16.8
  • Ronald: 0.4 // 4.6 // 1.1 // 8.5
  • Gio: 3.2 // 3.6 // 20.1
  • In 19 games as a Buccaneer, Fournette has scored 20+ DK pts four times
  • MIA ranks 30th in ppg to RBs (33.4)