Kickoff Sunday, Oct 10th 4:25pm Eastern

49ers (
21.75) at

Cards (
26.75)

Over/Under 48.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
49ers Run D
4th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per carry
Cardinals Run O
16th DVOA/10th Yards per carry
49ers Pass D
3rd DVOA/6th Yards allowed per pass
Cardinals Pass O
24th DVOA/10th Yards per pass
Cardinals Run D
14th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per carry
49ers Run O
20th DVOA/7th Yards per carry
Cardinals Pass D
30th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per pass
49ers Pass O
19th DVOA/12th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • Two of the top six offenses in drive success rate; Niners are the only team in the NFL that has scored a touchdown on every red zone trip this season
  • I’m sorry but Jimmy Garoppolo must not want to be a starting quarterback in the NFL. The dude missed half of Week 4’s contest with a calf contusion (a bruise!!!!) while a first-round quarterback is breathing down his neck
  • Cardinals have allowed the most running back yards per carry in the league (5.21), primarily due to the second level (most second-level yards allowed per carry)
  • Elijah Mitchell expected back after missing the previous two weeks with a shoulder injury

How san francisco Will Try To Win ::

Regardless of who starts at quarterback for the Niners, we should expect this team to lean on the run for as long as possible. Their 54% situation-neutral rush rate in games Raheem Mostert or Elijah Mitchell played ranked third in the league. Over the past two weeks (both games Mostert and Mitchell missed), that rush rate dropped to 37%, highly telling with respect to how this team views Trey Sermon in my opinion. In all but negative game scripts, this is a team that would like to manage the clock via low pace of play and elevated rush rates, a plan of attack that should remain consistent if Trey Lance is forced to start due to Jimmy Garoppolo’s calf ouchie. It became clear to the world just how far Lance has to go to be an NFL caliber starting quarterback in Week 4. He looked absolutely lost, was slow to progress through reads, and was quick to tuck the football and run (not necessarily the worst thing for fantasy). His deep touchdown to Deebo Samuel was severely underthrown and completely a testament to Deebo’s ability to adjust, secure the catch, and do the rest with his legs. All of that was said to highlight the expected rush-heavy approach against a Cardinals team ceding the most running back yards per carry in the league.

For all the pushback head coach Kyle Shanahan has received from the fantasy community, particularly surrounding the two Treys (Lance and Sermon), maybe this dude knows a little bit more than Joe Schmoe sitting on the couch? Sermon and Lance have both failed to impress over their short stints of meaningful opportunities, with Sermon clearly a poor fit to a zone-blocking run scheme (out-snapped by fullback Kyle Juszczyk 82% to 51% in Week 4), and Lance clearly overmatched in a fast-paced NFL game. It remains to be seen if Jimmy G’s calf bruise is something he can play through (I can’t even with this dude, to be honest; one of the softest quarterbacks in the league), but we should expect a run-heavy approach here for as long as they are afforded the opportunity, regardless of who is under center for the Niners. The team expects running back Elijah Mitchell back for Week 5 and he should immediately regain the lion’s share of running back opportunities after seeing 19 running back opportunities in each healthy week on 64% and 61% of the offensive snaps. The matchup on the ground yields an above average 4.52 net-adjusted line yards metric and the Cardinals struggle containing running backs in the second level, exactly what this Niners zone-blocking run scheme is designed to spring open for running backs.

The pass game is quite literally Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and a large gap before anyone else. Brandon Aiyuk appeared to come out of Shanahan’s doghouse in Week 3, only to cede meaningful snaps to Mohamed Sanu and Trent Sherfield once more in Week 4. Look for Samuel and Kittle to remain the only pass-catchers that approach every-down status. With the overall pass volume on this team so highly reliant on game flow, all members would require a negative game script in order to see a bump in volume. Outside of that, you’re betting on extreme efficiency here.

How arizona Will Try To Win ::

The basic identities of this team are a high pace of play, moderate rush rates, heavy red zone rush rates, and downfield passing mixed in with a horizontally-spread pass offense. On defense, Arizona has a top pass rush and poor rush defense. We’re finally starting to see bankable trends establish from this team now that we have four weeks’ worth of data. Expect Chase Edmonds to see about 65% of the offensive snaps, leading to 15-20 running back opportunities including significant pass game work but almost no red or green zone opportunities. Expect James Conner to eat up the remaining 35% of snaps and handle primary green zone and goal line work, with very little pass game involvement. DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green are the starting perimeter wide receivers and should play most snaps most weeks, followed by slot-man Christian Kirk in the 60-70% snap rate range and Rondale Moore in the 35-45% snap rate range. Moore’s snaps appeared the most reliant on game flow heading into Week 4, but the Cardinals dominated the game flow and he saw his second highest snap rate of the season.

The matchup on the ground yields a below average 4.00 net-adjusted line yards metric but the primary allure of Edmonds resides with his involvement in the pass game. There will be games this year where he scores through the air, giving him solid cost-considered upside albeit with a moderate floor. Behind Edmonds, James Conner can’t be relied upon for a sustainable workload barring an injury ahead of him. His heavy red zone role simply dents the utility of all members of this backfield.

As we brought up earlier, DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green remain the only pass-catchers with bankable volume. Both carry moderate aDOTs and viable red zone roles, but the overall volume of the offense is spread out enough to sap the upside of each barring extremely negative game flows. Behind those two, Christian Kirk is the primary deep threat out of the slot while Rondale Moore sees the field at a low rate but carries high per-route target rates to all areas of the field. The overall composition and utilization of this pass offense leave all four with low to moderate floors and moderate ceilings. Tight end Maxx Williams saw his lowest snap rate of the season in Week 4 at 58% and isn’t highly involved in the offensive game plan.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The Niners are likely to start the game with a heavy dose of rushing, and it is likelier than not that they experience some level of success. As the game wears on, however, it is difficult to see them sticking with the high octane offense of the Cardinals, likely forced into increased aerial aggression as this game plays out. Elijah Mitchell, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle should be the primary pistons of this engine. The Cardinals should be able to generate increasing pressure as the game moves on but it is unlikely they see a substantial boost to offensive play volume. The game day status of the Niners quarterbacks are likely to have an effect on Niners skill players more than it should affect the likeliest plan of attack or game flow.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Dwprix >>

Overview:

  • Total opened as the highest on the slate but has since moved down to third highest (bet down three pts)
  • ARZ is favored by 5.0 moving from an open of 4.5
  • ARZ has run the ninth most plays/g (66.5)
  • SF runs the 14th most (65.0)
  • ARZ pt totals: 37 @ LAR  // 31 @ JAX  // 34 vs MIN // 38 vs TEN
  • ARZ has scored 30+ in every game this season and is first in pts/g (33.5)
  • SF is seventh in pts/g (26.8) 
  • ARZ is second in point differential at +55 (BUF is first at +90 & they lost a game)
  • SF pt totals this season: 28 // 28 // 17 // 41
  • SF/ARZ point total last two seasons w/ Murray & Kingsbury: 32 // 44 // 62 // 53
  • SF is 3-1

Jimmy Garoppolo/Trey Lance:

  • Garoppolo didn’t play the second half last week due to a calf injury
  • He’s questionable this week and didn’t practice Wednesday
  • Trey Lance played the second half last week after Garoppolo left with a calf injury
  • Lance season stats: 10:19:162 yds:3 TDs:0 INTs // Rush: 11:44:1 TD
  • He had 20.38 DK pts last week playing just the second half
  • ARZ started the season w/ ten sacks in three games but got zero last week against Matthew Stafford
  • SF QBs have been sacked seven times
  • ARZ has allowed the ninth fewest DK pts to QBs (18.6) having faced Matthew Stafford (20.30), Trevor Lawrence (11.46), Kirk Cousins (25.26), & Ryan Tannehill (17.18)

RBs:

  • Elijah Mitchell was a limited participant Wednesday & is questionable this week
  • Mitchell took over for Mostert after he was injured week 1 
  • He handled 73% of the rush attempts going 19:104:1 TD against DET
  • Trey Sermon w/o Mitchell Weeks 3 & 4: 58% rush share // 29:120:1 TD
  • ARZ allows the most rush yds/att (5.4) & seventh most yds/g (135.8) but only two rush TDs (5th least)

SF WRs:

  • Deebo Samual NFL Ranks: Fifth in receptions (28) // Fifth in tgts (42)  // First in yds/g (122.5) // First in yac (270) // Second in DK pts/g (25.2)
  • Deebo SF Shares: Target-32% // Rec yds-45%
  • Despite the large target volume for Deebo, he has just 3 RZ tgts
  • Routes Run: Deebo: 90% // Brandon Aiyuk-65% // Mohamed Sanu-46% // Trent Sherfield-28% 
  • Tgts: Deebo-42 // Sanu-13 // Aiyuk-11 // Sherfield-8
  • Aiyuk averaged 8.0 tgts/g last season but only 3.7 this season

George Kittle:

  • Kittle saw only nine tgts the first two weeks but 19 the past two
  • He has zero TDs on the season and zero RZ tgts
  • His DK price has fallen from a Week 2 price of $6.3k to $5.6k
  • It’s been 11 games since Kittle had a 100+ rec yd game and also 11 since his last 10+ tgt game
  • ARZ has allowed the third least DK pts to TEs (5.6)

Kyler Murray:

  • SF has allowed the 5th most DK pts/g to QBs (24.1)
  • Kyler Murray is averaging the most QB DK pts/g  (29.5)
  • His $8k price tag is $600 more than the next expensive QB on this slate (Tom Brady is second at $7.4k)
  • Murray DK pts: @ LAR-22.6 // @ JAX-22.5 // vs MIN-38.1 // @ TEN 34.6
  • Rush atts/g: 5.75 // Rush yds/g: 27.25 // 3 Rush TDs
  • Despite passing just 33.5 time/g (21st), ARZ is third in pass yds/g
  • SF is allowing the 11th least yds/pass att (6.4)
  • Murray DK pts vs SF: 23.04 // 26.7 // 27.3 // 16.38

Chase Edmonds/James Conner:

  • Rush Share: Edmonds-35% // Conner-43% (Murray-19%)
  • Edmonds is third in team tgts (22, 17.0%) but is the only ARZ player (besides Conner who has seen just 3 tgts) not to score a rec TD
  • Conner has 14 RZ rush attempts (8th in NFL) w/ four TDs (second in NFL behind Sam Darnold’s five) // Edmonds has six w/ zero TDs (Murray has five w/ two TDs)
  • Edmonds rushed 12:120 yds last week while Conner rushed 18:50:2 TDs
  • This is Conners second week in a row w/ two rush TDs
  • Nine of Conners 14 RZ rush atts have came within the ten yd line (third in NFL behind Jonathon Taylor’s ten & Derrick Henry’s ten)

ARZ Recievers:

  • ARZ WR Routes Run (of 159): DeAndre Hopkins-155 // AJ Green-140 // Christian Kirk-119 // Rondale Moore-103
  • Team tgts: Hopkins-25 // Green-24 // Moore-18 // Kirk-18
  • WR TDs: Hopkins-3 // Green-2 // Kirk-2 // Moore-1
  • ARZ WRs have scored 20+ DK pts four times
  • Last week was the only week they didn’t have WR score 20+ but AJ Green did manage a 3.93x score
  • WR DK pts vs SF: DK Metcalf-16.5 // Tyler Lockett-6.4 // Davante Adams-34.2 // Marques Valdes-Scantling 14.9 // Quez Watkins 16.7 // Jalen Reagor-2.5 // Devonta Smith-3.6 // Quintez Cephus-12.2
  • Maxx Williams is the only ARZ TE to get any targets this season (16 tgts, one TD)