Thought Taysom for sure at beginning of week, but Nick Underhill making it seem like it’s Siemian (at least for this week) and not Taysom (returning from concussion). Nick was early to Taysom last year when everyone thought Jameis, so I’d almost be surprised now if it WASN’T Siemian (at least that’s how much I trust Nick’s reporting)
Deonte Harris been Saints best receiver this season but he’s still 5’6” in a limited passing offense
Siemian better for AK’s scoring chances but Taysom is playing some role regardless, which means even some of AKs immense TD upside is now limited again
Get right spot for Brandin Cooks vs Defense hemorrhaging WR & QB production, and now missing multiple starters too. May attach Cooks to any Taylor roster to mitigate Taylor ownership, as he’s the most likely to push IND into keeping Taylor on the field more vs Mack in blowout.
Hilton’s return would muddle Pittman’s dominant market share a little bit so I will keep eye on that. Pittman an interesting leverage play off Taylor, but may stay away if all of Pittman, Hilton, Pascal, Campbell are playing
Antonio Brown still the best “man-beater” of the three. A few better throws or he makes that catch at end of game vs heavy-man NE and he’s coming off a big score. This sets up well for him in same way last week did imo, and the most likely of the three for the top score, especially if Fournette disappoints.
TB been bad vs TEs throughout Bowles tenure in TB, down most of their secondary, Gesicki basically an oversized WR and has been Brissett’s top target beyond the line of scrimmage. TB strong vs YAC makes Waddle far less interesting.
Notable running back production vs NE:
– Gore / Yeldon: 17 att 109yds / 4 rec (4) 68yds
– Chubb: 20 att 131yds (2 FL)
– Ingram: 15 att 115yds, 2 rec (3) 29yds
– Elliott: 21 att 86yds, 4 rec (4) 40yds
– Duke: 9 att 36yds, 5 rec (6) 54yds, TD
– Mixon: 25 att 136yds, 3 rec (3) 20yds
Derrick Henry last 6 games:
– 23 att 188yds, 2 TD
– 19 att 159yds, 2 TD
– 26 att 149yds, TD
– 18 att 103yds, 2 TD
– 21 att 86yds
– 32 att 211yds, 3 TD
Brady vs Dean Pees since he left NE:
BAL DC:
– (’12, L 30-31) 335yds, TD
– (’12, L 13-28) 320yds, TD, 2 INT
– (’13, W 41-7) 172yds, TD
– (’14, W 35-31) 367yds, 3 TD, INT, rush TD
– (’16, W 30-23) 406yds, 3 TD, INT
TEN DC:
– (’18, L 10-34) 254yds
Wilson vs Jim Schwartz:
DET HC:
– (‘12, L 24-28) 236yds, 2 TD, INT; 1 att 9yds
PHI DC:
– (‘16, W 26-15) 272yds, TD; 8 att 19yds; rec TD
– (’17, W 24-10) 227yds, 3 TD; 6 att 31yds
– (’19, W 17-9) 200yds, TD, INT; 3 att 15yds
Brees at home in the playoffs:
– (2006, PHI, W 27-24) 243yds, TD; FL
– (2009, ARI, W 45-14) 247yds, 3 TD
– (2009, MIN, W 31-28) 197yds, 3 TD
– (2011, DET, W 45-28) 466yds, 3 TD, FL
– (2017, CAR, W 31-26) 376yds, 2 TD, INT
– (2018, PHI, W 20-14) 301yds, 2 TD, INT
– (2018, LAR, L 23-26) 249yds, 2 TD, INT
Brees vs Mike Zimmer:
– W (2006, DAL DC) 384yds, 5 TD
– W (2007, ATL DC) 219yds, 2 TD, INT
– W (2007, ATL DC) 328yds, 3 TD
– W (2010, CIN DC) 313yds, 2 TD, INT
– W (2014, MIN HC) 293yds, 2 TD
– L (2017, MIN HC) 291yds, TD
– L (2017, MIN HC) 294yds, 3 TD, 2 INT
– W (2018, MIN HC) 120yds, TD, INT
Brees hot finish (pass eff def rank)
– (SF, L 46-48) 349yds, 6 TD (2nd)
– (IND, W 34-7) 307yds, 4 TD (14th)
– (TEN, W 38-28) 279yds, 3 TD (23rd)
– (CAR, W 42-10) 253yds, 3 TD (8th)
Notable QBs vs MIN 2019 (11th in pass eff def):
– Ryan: 304yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
– Rodgers: 209yds, 2 TD; 216yds, INT
– Carr: 242yds, 2 TD, INT
– Wentz: 306yds, 2 TD, INT
– Stafford: 364yds, 4 TD, INT
– Prescott: 397yds, 3 TD, INT
– Wilson: 240yds, 2 TD, INT
– Rivers: 307yds, TD, 3 INT
Jared Cook with Brees since both returned:
– 6 rec (10) 74yds
– 2 rec (2) 33yds, TD
– 6 rec (8) 99yds, TD
– 3 rec (6) 85yds
– 2 rec (2) 64yds, 2 TD (INJ on TD in 1st Q)
– 4 rec (4) 54yds
– 3 rec (4) 84yds, 2 TD
– 2 rec (2) 44yds, TD
– Leads team in endzone targets
MIN vs RBs:
– Only 3 RBs over 100 rush yds (D Will, Carson, Jones x2)
o Williams needed 80yd TD to do it
– Some notable RB receiving lines allowed:
o Jones/Williams: 7 rec (10) 47yds, TD
o Sanders: 3 rec (3) 86yds, TD
o McKissic/Ty: 6 rec (7) 59yds
o Penny: 4 rec (5) 33yds, TD
o Ekeler: 5 rec (7) 62yds
o Gordon: 5 rec (7) 36yds
– T-9th with 12 RB TDs allowed
– Eric Kendricks is questionable to play
Kamara vs MIN as full-time player:
– (2017 Div) 11 att 43yds; 4 rec (7) 62yds, TD
– (2018) 13 att 45yds, TD; 7 rec (8) 31yds, TD
Kirk Cousins vs Dennis Allen & the Saints:
– (2017, L 31-34) 322yds, 3 TD; 2 sacks
o Lattimore out early
– (2018, L 20-30) 359yds, 2 TD, INT; 4 sacks
o Rank/Davenport 4 sacks: both on IR
Ertz may miss game with rib injury
– Raybon’s injury study showed an 18% decrease in fantasy production across 17 TE rib injury designations (13% decrease for 45 WR designations)
Greg Ward:
– NYG allowing 3rd most WR DK ppg
– Since taking 70% of snaps:
o (NYG) 4 rec (9) 34yds
o (WAS) 7 rec (9) 61yds, TD
o (DAL) 4 rec (5) 71yds
Boston Scott last 3 games:
– (NYG) 10 att 59yds, TD; 6 rec (6) 69yds (43% snaps)
– (WAS) 6 att 26yds; 7 rec (7) 39yds (45% snaps)
– (DAL) 3 att 12yds; 6 rec (6) 7yds (28% snaps)
**Important motivation notes:
– Saints will go in trying to win, but if they start scoreboard watching GB and see an obvious win taking place over DET, the Saints winning no longer matters. They will be the 2 or 3 seed depending on SF/SEA and irregardless of their own loss. This isn’t to say you can’t trust Saints players here, but just go in prepared with this information.
– Thomas needs just under 100yds to join the top 5 yardage seasons of all time
CAR has the worst run defense in NFL and has allowed an unholy amount of running back touchdowns on the year (28, last by 7)
– Kamara still doesn’t look quite like himself after a high ankle sprain in Week 6. He can still be effective enough in this offense + matchup, but his unique abilities that allowed him to overcome his high price on less touches are just not there right now
– Murray has been an effective runner this year but he’s still not getting enough touches to matter outside of Showdown slates
Although CAR has been strong vs TEs, Cook dominated this matchup in Week 12. He even had multiple near-TDs on EZ targets and a huge gain wiped out from a bad OPI.
– Averaging 3.7 rec (5.1) for 70.43yds per game and 6 TDs while leading team in EZ targets since both he and Brees returned 7 games ago
Miles Sanders:
– Avg 3 rec on 3.7 targets for 30.9yds per game
– 5 games above 40yds receiving
– Touches last 6 weeks:
o 10 att, 3 targ
o 11 att, 4 targ
o 12 att, 5 targ
o 17 att, 5 targ
o 15 att, 5 targ
o 19 att, 6 targ
Boston Scott last 2 weeks:
– 10 att 59yds, TD; 6 rec (6) 69yds; (43% snaps)
– 6 att 26yds; 7 rec (7) 39yds; (45% snaps)
Saints are 10-2 with some big offensive performances, but Brees has still only cleared 300yds once. Pay attention to the statuses of Larry Warford and Terron Armstead as well. Offensive line play fell off severely due to injuries end of 2018 and Brees’s fantasy performance suffered (also sacked twice a game during those last 4 games which is unusual for Brees)
Brees career vs Dean Pees as a Def Coord:
– (NE 2009, 38-17 W) 371yds, 5 TD
– (BAL 2014, 27-34 L) 420yds, 3 TD, INT
– Both games were in Superdome
Jared Cook with Brees since both returned:
– 6 rec (10) 74yds
– 2 rec (2) 33yds, TD
– 6 rec (8) 99yds, TD
– 3 rec (6) 85yds
– 2 rec (2) 64yds, 2 TD (INJ on TD in 1st Q)
– 4 rec (4) 54yds
– Leads team in endzone targets
Derrick Henry been on INJ report for hamstring last 2 weeks
Raybon’s Injury Study (2008-15):
– 85 hamstring designations
– 3.2% drop in fantasy production
– 12.9% drop in 38 truly questionable games
NOR injuries to Rankins (IR), Davenport (IR), Bell (Q), Alonso (Q) are significant hits to the run defense and pass rush
Grady Jarrett made life difficult on SF’s banged up interior:
– RB trio combined for 22 att 105yds, TD, 2 FL
– SF scored 22 (8pts below season avg)
– 313 yds of offense (70yds below season avg)
– This is against the 25th/20th ranked D in Points/Yards
Now SF gets Aaron Donald and the 15th/12th ranked D in Points/Yards
Winston targets after Godwin left game:
– 4: Brate
– 2: Barber
– 1: Perriman (TD), Hudson, Watson, Hyman
Cam Brate:
– Only 2 games above 60% snaps
– (67%, TEN) 3 rec (6) 32yds
– (75%, NOR) 10 rec (14) 73yds
– 3 highest target games were those 2 + last week
OJ Howard (Season-high 8 targets last week):
– Last 3:
o 5 rec (6) 61yds
o 4 rec (5) 73yds
o 4 rec (8) 46yds
TB allowing 5th most QB DK ppg:
Deshaun Watson has 7 huge games out of 14:
– 31.7, 29.8, 44.7, 31.4, 27.8, 28.9, 30.1
Opponent points in those 7 games:
– 30, 20, 32, 24, 24, 22, 38
Although with major injuries, TB avg 3rd-highest 29.7ppg
Cooper Kupp last 2 weeks:
– 6 rec (6) 65yds, TD (72% snaps)
– 4 rec (4) 45yds, TD (29% snaps)
– Kupp was above 85% in every game but 1 before last 2 weeks
#1 WRs have underperformed vs DAL, but here’s Woods last 4:
– 7 rec (11) 95yds
– 6 rec (9) 97yds
– 13 rec (18) 172yds
– 7 rec (9) 98yds, TD; 2 att 29yds
SF D’s stretch of efficient offenses is over
– D is still really good even if not historic like early schedule led some to believe
– After ARI, SEA, GB, BAL, NOR, now gets #21 ATL minus Ridley
– SF and NOR both lost key defensive players in that great game last week, so SF will be without Sherman, Ford, and possibly Tartt again
– ATL O-Line has been so ineffective that this probably won’t matter too much this week, but guarding Julio without Sherman could present a big issue
Only game Ridley didn’t play a normal amount of snaps (hurt early):
– (vs TB WK6 2018): 14 and 10 targets for Julio and Hooper
Julio Jones:
– 5 targets on Ryan’s 11 attempts in 2nd half without Ridley
Desmond Trufant on IR with already stuggling secondary:
– Sanders saw most targets since W9 vs ARI (huge game, at least looked like he was past his rib injury)
– Deebo’s last 5 games:
o 8 rec (11) 112yds
o 8 rec (10) 134yds
o 2 rec (2) 50yds, TD
o 2 rec (4) 41yds, TD; 1 att 20yds
o 5 rec (8) 76yds; 2 att 33yds
CAR has the worst run defense in the league:
– 30.8 DK ppg to RBs (31st)
– 21 rush TDs to RBs (32nd by 7 TDs!)
– 3 rec TDs to RBs
– 120.85 rush yd/g to RBs (31st)
– 25.38 rec yd/g to RBs (1st)
Rashad Penny to IR
Chris Carson:
– Touches: 22, 18, 16, 26, 29, 28, 26, 21, 19, 29, 12, 25, 19
– 5 games over 100 rush yds
– 5 rush TDs, 2 rec TDs
Saquon Barkley:
– Only other game vs bottom-12 rush eff D:
o (BUF) 18 att 107yds, TD, 3 rec (7) 28yds
– Only other game in top-10 RB matchup:
o (DET) 19 att 64yds, 8 rec (10) 79yds, TD
– Only other game in both:
o (GB) 19 att 83yds, 3 rec (7) 32yds
Unless Brady goes off vs CIN, this is probably a lock for Brees to break another all-time record on primetime (Manning 539, Brady 536, Brees 537). I will have actual data to follow, but personally I’ll always back Brees/Payton on primetime when a record is in reach
– ATL 2011: 307yds, 4 TD, 2 INT (W 45-16)
– SD 2012: 370yds, 4 TD, INT (W 31-24)
– WAS 2018: 363yds, 3 TD (W 43-19)
IND vs QBs:
– 300+yds: Rivers, Ryan, Mahomes, Watson, Winston
– Foles & Watson also had games of 296 & 298
– 2+ TDs: Rivers, Ryan, Carr, Foles, Watson, Tanny, Winston
– Flacco only QB not to score vs IND
– 2+ TDs 4 weeks straight
Drew Brees 2019:
– 300.3 passing yds/g in 7 full games
– Touchdowns: 2, 3, 0, 3, 3, 1, 6
– DK pts: 24.8, 28.9, 11.5, 21.1, 26.4, 11.3, 43.1
19/23 games over 300yds
15/23 games 3+ touchdowns
23/23 games 1+ touchdowns
TD/INT ratio of 68 : 10
W/L record of 19-4
IND D designed to limit big plays and WR production, yet it has struggled more this year with injuries and execution
– IND D ranks 27th in Explosive Pass rate allowed to WRs
Jared Cook with Brees:
– 2 rec (3) 37yds
– Targeted on 2 deep routes on Brees’s 6 att
– 6 rec (10) 74yds
– 2 rec (2) 33yds, TD
– 6 rec (8) 99yds, TD (+deep catch called back)
– 3 rec (6) 85yds (dropped TD; just missed deep ball)
– 2 rec (2) 64yds, 2 TD (INJ on TD in 1st Q)
Jared Cook vs Eberflus’s Colts D in 2018:
– 4 rec (5) 74yds, TD
IND RB D:
– 5th in RB DK ppg allowed
– 28th in RB receptions allowed
– T-3rd in RB TDs allowed
– 21st in Rush Eff Def
Only notable RB games vs IND:
– Ekeler: 12 att 58yds, TD; 6 rec (7) 96yds, 2 TD
– Henry: 15 att 81yds, TD; 2 rec (3) 12yds
– Samuels: 8 att 10yds; 13 rec (13) 73yds
– Henry: 26 att 149yds, TD; 3 rec (3) 17yds
Kamara/Murray since AK return from ankle sprain:
– AK: 4 att 24yds; 8 rec (10) 50yds
– Lat: 5 att 12yds; 2 rec (2) 7yds
–
– AK: 13 att 75yds; 10 rec (10) 47yds
– Lat: 10 att 27yds; 2 rec (3) 5yds
–
– AK: 11 att 54yds; 9 rec (9) 48yds
– Lat: 7 att 64yds, TD
–
– AK: 11 att 61yds; 4 rec (8) 23yds
– Lat: 4 att 2yds
–
– AK: 13 att 25yds; 4 rec (6) 18yds
– Lat: 7 att 69yds; 2 rec (3) 25yds
IND Run Game:
– NOR got run on by SF due to 3 things: Shanahan scheming, NOR missing LBs Anzalone, Klein, & Alonso and having Robertson get picked on all day, and SF execution with a strong line and special TE blocking by Kittle
– No individual running back has surpassed 100yds on ground vs NOR since Week 11, 2017
– RBs in pass game is way to attack this matchup, but Mack only has 12 rec for 76yds on the season
– Klein and Alonso still questionable (Anzalone IR)
– Davenport and Rankins both done for the year (this is SIGNIFICANT, but I would probably expect this problem to be on full display against Derrick Henry next week)
CHI has been hit on the ground through heavy volume
– Jacobs: 26 att 123yds, 2 TD; 3 rec (4) 20yds
– Murray: 27 att 119yds, 2 TD; 5 rec (6) 31yds
– Howard: 19 att 82yds, TD
– Gurley: 25 att 97yds, TD; 3 rec (3) 36yds
– Scarbrough: 21 att 83yds
– Elliott: 19 att 81yds, 2 TD; 2 rec (5) 12yds
Aaron Jones:
– Cleared 20 touches for first time since Davante returned
– When he gets 20+ touches in 2019:
o (vs MIN) 23 att 116yds, TD; 4 rec (6) 34yds
o (vs PHI) 13 att 21yds, TD; 6 rec (7) 37yds
o (@ DAL) 19 att 107yds, 4 TD; 7 rec (8) 75yds
o (@ KC) 13 att 67yds; 7 rec (8) 159yds, 2 TD
o (vs WAS) 16 att 134yds, TD; 6 rec (7) 58yds
Aaron Rodgers 1st vs 2nd game vs CHI since 2015:
– 189yds, 3 TD; 35 rush yds 202yds, TD, INT; 33 rush yds
– 326yds, 3 TD; 7 rush yds 252yds; 19 rush yds
– 179yds, 4 TD; -1 rush yds DNP
– 286yds, 3 TD; 15 rush yds 274yds, INT; 25 rush yds
– 203yds, TD; 8 rush yds ?
– 5-0 in 1st game; 1-2 in 2nd game
I shared the following about Trubisky last week before he played 19th ranked DAL, and now DAL is ranked 23rd after playing CHI. GB is currently ranked 18th in Pass Eff Def so one spot ahead of where DAL ranked before playing CHI last week. So GB is still a tougher matchup than the others on Trubisky’s list here, but not by much again.
Trubisky vs. the 5 teams he’s faced outside the top 20 in pass eff def:
– WAS: 25/31 for 231yds, 3 TD, INT
– DET: 16/23 for 173yds, 3 TD
– NYG: 25/41 for 278yds, 1 TD, 2 INT; 7 att 18yds, TD
– DET: 29/38 for 338yds, 3 TD, INT
– DAL: 23/31 for 244yds, 3 TD, INT; 10 att 63yds, TD
– 20.4, 19.7, 20.9, 27.9, 33.1
Lamar Jackson has the 2nd best passer rating in NFL vs blitz
Gregg Williams looooves to blitz
With healthy secondary and Peters addition, BAL has intercepted Dalton, Wilson, Brady, Finley, Watson, & Goff (x2) while allowing point totals of 17, 16, 20, 13, 7, 6, 17, 17 in these last 8 games
Teams in top half of Off Eff that SF has faced:
– (14) ARI: 25pts, 26pts
– (4) SEA: 27pts
– (7) GB: 8pts
– (1) BAL: 20pts
NOR ranks 5th in Offensive Efficiency
Those QBs vs SF:
– Kyler: 241yds, 2 TD; 5 att 34yds
– Russ: 232yds, 1 TD, 1 INT; 6 att 53yds
– Kyler: 150yds, 2 TD; 8 att 67yds, TD
– Rodgers: 104yds, TD; 3 att 13yds
– Lamar: 105yds, TD; 16 att 101yds, TD
Drew Brees:
– 292.2 passing yds/g in 6 full games
– Touchdowns: 2, 3, 0, 3, 3, 1
– DK pts: 24.8, 28.9, 11.5, 21.1, 26.4, 11.3
Terron Armstead played sick W10 vs ATL and missed W13 vs ATL, Brees’s two worst games this year. He is a HUGE factor in this matchup vs SF’s top defensive line. Saints already playing with backup LG
Those RBs vs SF (plus CMC):
– CMC: 14 att 117yds, TD; 4 rec (5) 38yds
– Drake: 15 att 110yds, TD; 4 rec (4) 52yds
– Carson: 25 att 89yds, TD; 3 rec (4) 12yds
– Drake: 16 att 67yds; 6 rec (7) 13yds
– Williams: 11 att 45yds; 7 rec (8) 35yds
– Ingram: 15 att 59yds; 2 rec (2) 3yds
Alvin Kamara:
– Since return from injury:
o 4 att 24yds, 8 rec (10) 50yds
o 13 att 75yds, 10 rec (10) 47yds
o 11 att 54yds, 9 rec (9) 48yds
o 11 att 61yds, 4 rec (8) 23yds
o 15.4, 22.2, 19.2, 12.4
– Touchdowns have been missing for Kamara this year, partially due to Brees injury, his own ankle injury, penalties bringing plays back, and probably regression from his crazy TD rate to start career
– SF has only allowed 3 TDs to RBs all year, only behind NE at 2
Jared Cook with Brees:
– 2 rec (3) 37yds
– Targeted on 2 deep routes on Brees’s 6 att
– 6 rec (10) 74yds
– 2 rec (2) 33yds, TD
– 6 rec (8) 99yds, TD (+deep catch called back)
– 3 rec (6) 85yds (dropped easy TD; just missed deep ball)
NOR QB D:
– Jameis and Kyle Allen had nice fantasy days vs NOR without Lattimore
– Ryan struggled with Lattimore back until he put up a bunch of late points
– Other than Deshaun Watson, the only strong QB fantasy performances (Russ, Trubisky, Winston, Ryan) against the Saints with Lattimore have all come via heavy 4th quarter volume in garbage time
– A Saints blowout probably on the extreme low end of possible scenarios
NOR RB D:
– NOR tied for 30th in RB receptions allowed
– Signed Teo back due to LB injuries (Anzalone, Klein, Alonso)
– Juszczyk has led RBs in pass game in 3 of his 7 games
TEs continue to perform well vs TEN as Doyle just hit season-highs
Darren Waller:
– Only behind Kittle & Andrews in air yards market share and WOPR
Multiple RBs have performed well vs TEN, but the best games have included heavy pass-game usage, something we have not seen by OAK with Jacobs all year
Ryan Tannehill since starting (Pass Eff Def rank):
– (22) 312yds, 2 TD, INT; 5 att 7yds
– (19) 193yds, 3 TD; 4 att -3yds
– (7) 331yds, 1 TD, 2 INT; 4 att 38yds, TD
– (6) 181yds, 2 TD; 3 att 37yds; 2pm
– (16) 259yds, 2 TD; 7 att 40yds, 2 TD
– (10) 182yds, 2 TD, 4 att 5yds
OAK D ranks 28th in Pass Eff Def
Looking at a more improbable angle:
– Turnovers w/ Tanny: 1 (half), 1, 1, 3, 1, 2, 2
– Tanny also had 3 more fumbles recovered
– Sacks allowed: 4 (half), 2, 3, 4, 4, 1, 6
OAK D:
– Turnovers forced: 0, 1, 0, 2, 2, 0, 0, 2, 3, 2, 1, 0
– Team QBs without TOs: Flacco, Cousins, Rodgers, Watson, Mahomes
– 24th in sacks per game, but averaging 1 more sack per game at Home (6th in Home sacks per game)
IND D designed to limit big plays and WR production, yet it has struggled more this year with injuries and execution
– IND D ranks 25th in Explosive Pass rate allowed to WRs
Chris Godwin:
– After an early season explosion, only has 1 game in the last 6 that you wanted, and considering his price since then, only 1 score that didn’t really set back your roster scoring pace
– His aDOT of 10.5 compared to Evans’s 15.2 is better suited to this matchup’s desire to limit plays downfield
Mike Evans:
– Price has been boosted by his early season production as well, even as he’s only had 4 catches in 4 straight games and between 50 and 82yds
– #2 WR on Hermsmeyer’s Buy-Low model for Week 14, indicating his usage is projecting a big game
Zach Pascal:
– Priced up after his 7 rec (10) 109yds performance, but gets the softest WR matchup in football vs TB
– Landed on Hermsmeyer’s Buy-Low Model for Week 14
Jack Doyle:
– Basically just absorbed all of Ebron’s usage in first game without Ebron, receiving a season high 11 targets (6 rec 73yds, TD)
– TB is the 29th ranked TE Def in DK ppg allowed
Jacoby Brissett:
– The only 3 times you wanted Brissett on your roster came against the #30, #28, #27 defenses in QB DK ppg allowed
– TB Def ranks 31st in QB DK ppg allowed
– No Hilton hurts him, but Hilton only played 52% and 0% of the snaps in the first 2 of those games due to injury
CIN RB D:
– 24th in Rush Eff Def
– 30th in Explosive Rush Def
– 31st in RB Pass Eff Def
As one of the most explosive backs in football, Chubb has the ability to take advantage of this Bengals run defense in the same way several others have this year
Nick Chubb:
– 16 att is his lowest total of the year!
– 20+ att in every game since W5 before last week (PIT)
– 24, 28, 24, 18 touches with Kareem Hunt
– Rush Eff DEF faced: 4, 2, 3, 25, 19, 16, 13, 6, 27, 8, 29, 8
– In 25, 27, 29 games:
o 20 att 165yds, 3 TD; 3 rec (4) 18yds
o 20 att 116yds; 2 rec (4) 5yds
o 21 att 106yds, TD; 3 rec (3) 58yds
Chubb vs CIN in 2018:
– 28 att 84yds, TD; 3 rec (3) 44yds, TD
– 19 att 112yds; 2 rec (3) 3yds
Kareem Hunt in 2019:
– 4 att 30yds; 7 rec (9) 44yds
– 6 att 12yds; 6 rec (8) 46yds
– 8 att 37yds, TD; 2 rec (3) 9yds
– 7 att 46yds; 5 rec (5) 19yds, TD
– Out-snapped Chubb vs PIT (trailed all 2nd half)
Kareem Hunt vs CIN in 2018:
– 15 att 86yds, TD; 5 rec (6) 55yds, 2 TD
CAR has the worst run defense in the league:
– 30.7 DK ppg to RBs (31st)
– 19 rush TDs to RBs (32nd by 6 TDs!)
– 3 rec TDs to RBs
– 118.25 rush yd/g to RBs (30th)
– 26.67 rec yd/g to RBs (2nd)
ATL has faced a brutal schedule of run defenses:
– IND (#23) is best matchup Freeman has had (16 att 88yds while trailing all game)
– Freeman’s others in rank: 5, 7, 4, 10, 15, 3, 16, 9, 9
ATL vs CAR in W11 without Freeman
– Brian Hill: 15 att 30yds; 1 rec (3) 8yds
– Ollison: 4 att 11yds, TD
– Barner: 2 att 15yds
Offensive line has been really rough
After absolutely destroying CAR for 21 rec (26) 478yds, 2 TD in back to back games, Julio vs Ron Rivera’s CAR D has gone:
– 4 rec (7) 60yds
– 6 rec (12) 118yds
– 5 rec (11) 80yds
– 5 rec (9) 64yds
– 4 rec (5) 28yds, TD
– 6 rec (8) 91yds
Calvin Ridley vs CAR career:
– 4 rec (5) 64yds, TD
– 3 rec (5) 90yds, TD
– 8 rec (8) 143yds, TD (no Hooper)
CHI has been hit on the ground through heavy volume
– Jacobs: 26 att 123yds, 2 TD; 3 rec (4) 20yds
– Murray: 27 att 119yds, 2 TD; 5 rec (6) 31yds
– Howard: 19 att 82yds, TD
– Gurley: 25 att 97yds, TD; 3 rec (3) 36yds
– Scarbrough: 21 att 83yds
Not the Zeke volume of past, but touches still:
– 15, 25, 22, 25, 15, 34, 29, 23, 23, 19, 25, 22
– Lowest snaps since W4: 80% in blowout win (PHI)
– Lowest touches: 15 in blowout loss (GB)
Amari Cooper is Questionable
Gallup target totals as the #2 all year:
– 7, 8, 14, 7, 4, 6, 10, 13, 6, 6
Keenum, Teddy, Driskel, Jones, Blough managed useful fantasy days vs CHI
Dak’s 3 worst games correlate with Cooper:
– NOR: Dak (8.6), Cooper (9.8)
– NYJ: Dak (18.2), Cooper left injured (3 snaps)
– NE: Dak (7.9), Cooper (0.0)
Dak has been between 21.6 and 36.4 in the 9 other games
Trubisky vs. the 4 teams he’s faced outside the top 20 in pass eff def:
– WAS: 25/31 for 231yds, 3 TD, INT
– DET: 16/23 for 173yds, 3 TD
– NYG: 25/41 for 278yds, 1 TD, 2 INT; 7 att 18yds, TD
– DET: 29/38 for 338yds, 3 TD, INT
– 20.4, 19.7, 20.9, 27.9
DAL ranks 19th in Pass Eff D (so still better than those other 4 but not by a lot)
Only 2 passers have cleared 240yds vs DAL all year
ARI vs QBs:
– 32nd in DK ppg allowed to QBs (27.8)
– 32nd in pass ypg allowed
– 29 pass TDs allowed (26 next closest)
Jared Goff:
– As bad as he’s been (19 DK pts last 3wks combined), he does has 3 big games (27.7, 25.0, 25.9)
– Goff has been super matchup-dependent, and the matchup doesn’t get better than this
Only teams in top 20 of OFF EFF that SF has faced:
– (9) ARI: 25pts, 26pts
– (4) SEA: 27pts
– (5) GB: 8pts
BAL ranks 3rd in Offensive Efficiency
Those 3 QBs vs SF:
– Kyler: 241yds, 2 TD; 5 att 34yds
– Russ: 232yds, 1 TD, 1 INT; 6 att 53yds
– Kyler: 150yds, 2 TD; 8 att 67yds, TD
– Rodgers: 104yds, TD; 3 att 13yds
Lamar Jackson:
– 220.6 passing yds/g
– 79.6 rushing yds/g (87 after W1)
– 24 pass TDs, 6 rush TDs
– 6/11 games over 30 DK pts
Those RBs vs SF (plus CMC):
– CMC: 14 att 117yds, TD; 4 rec (5) 38yds
– Drake: 15 att 110yds, TD; 4 rec (4) 52yds
– Carson: 25 att 89yds, TD; 3 rec (4) 12yds
– Drake: 16 att 67yds; 6 rec (7) 13yds
– Williams: 11 att 45yds; 7 rec (8) 35yds
Mark Ingram:
– 12 att in every game but one (9 att)
– Only more than 16 att once (19 att)
– Below 52% of snaps since Week 6
– 5 games you wanted (25.7, 38.5, 18.4, 23.5, 27.8), and 6 games that put you on pace to underperform
BAL vs TEs:
– Basically just a schedule of min-priced TEs plus Kelce and McDonald (with Rudolph/Hodges)
– Kelce: 7 rec (8) 89yds
– McDonald: 3 rec (3) 34yds
– BAL CBs much better than SF WRs, so this is where SF has advantage with Kittle
George Kittle:
– 2 low target games vs Anarumo’s D and puddle game
– 6+ targets in all others: 10, 8, 8, 8, 7, 8, 6
– Last 5 non-puddle games:
o 70+ yds, 6+ rec, 3 TDs
o 20.8, 21.3, 14.6, 19.9, 27.9
TB 31st in ppg allowed to QBs
TB 31st in ypg and TDs allowed to QBs
Nick Foles:
– 75yds, TD on just 11 snaps
– 296yds, 2 TD, INT
– 272yds; 20 rush yds
– 2018 vs Bucs: 334yds, TD
JAC Rush Def:
– Henry, Williams, Mack, Hyde have all gone 100+ last 3 weeks
– 30th in Rush Eff Def
– JAC is only the second rush D below 19th in efficiency that TB has faced (CAR 2x)
Ronald Jones with double-digit touches 2019:
– (SF) 13 att 75yds; 1 rec (1) 18yds
– (NYG) 14 att 80yds; 1 rec (1) 41yds
– (LAR) 19 att 70yds, TD; 1 rec (1) 12yds
– (NOR) 9 att 35yds; 2 rec (3) 21yds
– (TEN) 11 att 35yds; 1 rec (3) 17yds
– (SEA) 18 att 67yds, TD; 2 rec (2) 15yds
– (ARI) 11 att 29yds, TD; 8 rec (8) 77yds
– (ATL) 12 att 51yds, TD; 3 rec (3) 16yds
– 10.3, 13.1, 15.2, 7.6, 6.2, 16.2, 23.6, 15.7
Christian McCaffrey
– Zeke, Gallman, Michel, Cook, Singletary all excelled vs WAS
– 29+ DK pts in 8/10 games!
– 2 games below (7.3, 21.7) both vs TB (2nd in RB pts allowed)
– 3 games over 40 DK pts
CAR has one of the worst run defenses and has allowed the most RB TDs, but you have to believe Haskins can keep drives alive to trust Peterson or Guice to produce
GB RB Def:
– 30th in RB DK ppg allowed
– 29th in RB TDs allowed (13 rush, 1 rec)
– 28th in Rush Eff Def
– 12th in Explosive Rush Def
Saquon Barkley:
– Only other game vs bottom-12 rush eff D:
o (BUF) 18 att 107yds, TD, 3 rec (7) 28yds
– Only other game in top-10 RB matchup:
o (DET) 19 att 64yds, 8 rec (10) 79yds, TD
NYG WR Def:
– 31st in WR DK ppg allowed
– T-28th in WR TDs allowed
– 29th in WR yards allowed
MIA Rush Def:
– 29th in Rush Eff Def
– 24th in Explosive Rush Def
– 27th in RB DK ppg allowed
– 32nd in rush yds allowed to RBs
– 6 100+ yd rushers in 11 games
Miles Sanders with double-digit touches (Rush Eff D rank)
– (9th) 11 att 25yds; 1 rec (2) 2yds
– (11th) 10 att 28yds; 3 rec (4) 9yds
– (8th) 13 att 53yds; 2 rec (4) 73yds
– (12th) 11 att 72yds
– (2nd) 9 att 15yds; 4 rec (5) 49yds
– (4th) 10 att 42yds; 3 rec (3) 31yds
– (15th) 11 att 38yds; 2 rec (4) 9yds
– (16th) 12 att 63yds; 3 rec (5) 23yds
Other notable games:
– (5th) 3 att 6yds; 3 rec (3) 86yds, TD
– (31st) 3 att 74yds, TD; 3 rec (3) 44yds, 2pm
Jordan Howard:
– Last 2 before injury:
o 23 att 96yds, TD; 1 rec (2) 15yds
o 19 att 82yds, TD; 1 rec (1) 1yd
– Other notable:
o 11 att 37yds, TD
o 15 att 87yds, 2 TD; 3 rec (4) 28yds, TD
o 13 att 62yds, TD
Zach Ertz:
– Target boost amidst PHI WR injuries
– Last 3:
o 9 rec (11) 103yds, TD
o 9 rec (11) 94yds
o 12 rec (14) 91yds, TD
Dallas Goedert:
– Also benefiting from PHI WR injuries
– Targets since W6: 8, 4, 5, 5, 6, 8
– Used a lot in red zone
Darnold vs bottom-10 Pass Eff Def in 2019:
– (MIA) 260yds, TD, INT
– (NYG) 230yds, TD; 3 att 25yds, TD
– (WAS) 293yds, 4 TD, INT
– (OAK) 315yds, 2 TD; 4 att 16yds, TD
– These also happen to be his last 4 games
CIN Pass D:
– 31st in Pass Eff Def
– Facing least amount of pass att in NFL
– 29th in DK ppg allowed to QBs
NYJ WR D:
– 30th in WR DK ppg allowed
– T-31st in WR TDs allowed
– Bottom 10 in Rec and Yds allowed to WRs
Tyler Boyd:
– Between 6-14 targets every week except 1
– Gets Dalton back
To be honest, I don’t know how much is really here since some of this can be looked at from a game-script perspective. Thomas’s numbers have dropped off significantly vs ATL last 2 years, but the Saints also went from trailing a lot in first game to completely controlling the 2nd game. Atlanta offense at home (plus potentially no Lattimore) makes it hard to believe the Saints won’t continue to pepper Thomas with targets all game. He hasn’t dropped below 10 targets since W4 vs DAL with Teddy. He’s also on just another level this year.
Alvin Kamara:
– Only 1 of 4 full games vs ATL has produced a strong score (No Ingram, 43-37 OT shootout)
– This is a better ATL D on ground than any previous matchup
– 2019 ATL: #11 Rush Eff D, #16 RB Pass Eff D, #11 Explosive Rush D
– No Armstead could mean even more emphasis on quick hitters to Kamara, though this might be more important vs ferocious SF pass rush next week than ATL spotty one this week
– He’s from ATL playing in front of family for whatever that’s worth to you
NOR TEs vs ATL (2018):
– Watson: 5 rec (6) 71yds
– Arnold: 4 rec (6) 45yds, TD
Jared Cook with Brees:
– 2 rec (3) 37yds
– Targeted on 2 deep routes on Brees’s 6 att
– 6 rec (10) 74yds
– 2 rec (2) 33yds, TD
– 6 rec (8) 99yds, TD (deep catch called back on questionable OPI and 2 other end zone targets as well)
Drew Brees:
– Probably not here to stay, but Brees attacked deep vs CAR: Sideline completions to Ginn and Thomas, INC to Cook in endzone, Ginn drop on perfect throw, underthrow to Ginn, INT to Trequan, miscommunication on throw to open Ginn
– Brees fell behind Brady in the race to pass Peyton for all-time TDs while out with thumb injury, but I would believe it if you told me Payton tries to help Brees get there first
– Will be without Armstead, and Peat, who usually moves to LT when he’s out, is also out. So kind of 3rd-string LT and backup LG with a, albeit already good, rookie center
QB rushing vs DAL:
– Jones: 6 att 54yds
– Driskel: 8 att 51yds, TD
Josh Allen rushing:
– 35.2 yds/g
– 7 rush TDs
– 4 att is lowest of year
– 10 att is highest of year (twice)
DAL has only allowed 2 passers to clear 240yds all year (Eli/Darnold)
– Josh Allen season-high in pass yds is just 266yds
– DAL ranks 19th in Pass Eff Def
Devin Singletary:
– 3 best receiving games:
o 5 rec (6) 28yds
o 4 rec (6) 30yds, TD
o 3 rec (4) 45yds
– Since coming back from injury:
o 3 att 19yds; 4 rec (6) 30yds, TD; (68% snaps)
o 20 att 95yds, TD; 3 rec (4) 45yds (66%)
o 8 att 42yds; 3 rec (6) 8yds (68%)
o 15 att 75yds; 1 rec (1) 4yds (73%)
o 21 att 106yds; 1 rec (2) 8yds (71%)
Not only did most of these #1’s struggle, but the only other WRs to even post usable scores vs DAL were:
– Crowder: 6 rec (9) 98yds
– M Jones: 4 rec (5) 43yds, 2 TD; 1 att -4yds
John Brown:
– 50+ yards in 10/11, but only 3 big weeks (NYJ, MIA 2x)
BUF QB D:
– #2 in DK ppg allowed (12.4)
– Pass Off Eff Sched: 32, 27, 30, 14, 16, 28, 17, 31, 21, 28, 26
– DAL is ranked #3 in Pass Eff Off
– Dak is the best 2019 QB BUF has faced
Dak vs top-half pass eff def:
– (NOR) 223 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT; 1 att 7yds
– (GB) 463 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT; 4 att 27yds
– (PHI) 239yds, 1 TD, 1 INT; 5 att 30yds, TD
– (MIN) 397yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
– (NE) 212yds, 0 TD, INT; 1 att 4yds
Ezekiel Elliott:
– BUF: #27 in Rush Eff Def, #31 in Explosive Rush D
– Only games vs teams outside top 20 in rush eff def:
o (WAS) 23 att 111yds, TD; 2 rec (2) 9yds
o (MIA) 19 att 125yds; 2 rec (3) 14yds
o (GB) 12 att 62yds, TD; 2 rec (3) 29yds
Trubisky has obviously been bad, but here are his numbers vs. the only 3 teams he’s faced outside the top 20 in pass eff def:
– WAS: 25/31 for 231yds, 3 TD, INT
– DET: 16/23 for 173yds, 3 TD
– NYG: 25/41 for 278yds, 1 TD, 2 INT; 7 att 18yds, TD
– 20.4, 19.7, 20.9
DET ranks 24th in pass efficiency def
Trubisky’s only game vs DET last year:
– 23/30 for 355yds, 3 TD; 3 att 18yds, TD
Montgomery last 5 (Rush Eff D Rank):
– (#26) 27 att 135yds, TD; 4 rec (5) 12yds
– (#7) 14 att 40yds, 2 TD; 3 rec (4) 36yds
– (#18) 17 att 60yds
– (#3) 14 att 31yds; 1 rec (3) 19yds
– (#14) 13 att 22yds; 2 rec (3) 9yds
Cohen last 3:
– 3 att 14yds; 4 rec (4) 23yds, TD
– 9 att 39yds; 5 rec (6) 35yds, TD
– 6 att 25yds; 7 rec (9) 29yds
CHI has been hit hard on the ground by heavy volume from Jacobs, Murray, Howard, and Gurley, but unless you think it’s Bo, DET doesn’t have a RB to fit that mold
– Scarbrough went for 18 att 98yds last week vs WAS
Kamara vs CAR:
2017 (5th in Rush Def DVOA):
– 2 att 37yds, TD; 3 rec (5) 5yds (17 snaps)
– 9 att 60yds, 2 TD; 5 rec (6) 66yds
– 10 att 23yds, TD; 1 rec (3) 10yds
2018 (18th in Rush Def DVOA):
– 14 att 67yds, TD; 7 rec (9) 36yds
2019 CAR currently ranks 32nd in Rush Def DVOA
– Also allowed 3 RB rec TDs (DJ, Coleman, Henry)
– 15 RB rush TD allowed (11 is next closest team)
Kamara will be 6 weeks removed from spraining ankle in W6
– Whether you think he’ll ever be fully right all year is up to you
– Raybon’s injury study from ’08-’15 had 107 RB “Probable” designations for “ankle,” and those RBs dropped an average of 15.2% PPR ppg
Thomas with Brees in 2019 (DEF rank in ppg to WRs):
2 trailing gamescripts:
– 10 rec (13) 123yds (24th)
– 13 rec (14) 152yds (26th)
2 leading gamescripts:
– 11 rec (11) 112yds, TD (25th)
– 8 rec (11) 114yds, TD (32nd)
CAR may be 3rd in Pass Def DVOA, but they’re 28th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
– Thomas does move to slot as well where he can exploit the weakness of CAR pass D
This game is often a Brees-Keuchly chess match pre-snap for anyone who enjoys watching two football geniuses adapt and react to each other 60 times a game.
MIA Rush DEF:
– 30th in Rush DEF DVOA
– 30th in Rush Eff Def
– 27th in RB DK ppg allowed
– 32nd in rush yards allowed to RBs
– 5 100+ yd rushers in 10 games
Nick Chubb:
– 16 att is his lowest total of the year!
– 20+ att in every game since W5
– Hunt has 10 att & 17 targets in 2 games, but even with him playing Chubb had 24 and 28 touches
– Rush Eff DEF faced: 4, 2, 3, 28, 17, 18, 14, 9, 27, 11
– In 28 & 27 games: 20 att 165yds, 3 TD & 20 att 116yds
Hey guys, sorry for not getting much up last week and possibly this week as well. I had surgery last week so I’m still dealing with all that. Hopefully I’ll start getting some useful info up for you all again soon. Really appreciate the support I’ve gotten thus far!
HOU Pass Def:
– 3rd most QB ppg allowed
– 5 of 10 hit 300+ yd bonus
– Minshew and Allen combined for 1 TD in 3 games; All others:
o 2: Brees, Rivers
o 3: Ryan (+1 rush), Mahomes, Carr
o 4: Brissett, Lamar
–
– 9th most WR ppg allowed
– Big game or 2-WR stack in non-Minshew/Allen/Lamar games
o Thomas/Ginn: 25.3 – 20.1
o Chark: 18.5
o Keenan: 46.6
o Ridley/Sanu: 19.8 – 15.3
o Tyreek: 25
o Hilton/Pascal: 19.4 – 31.6
o Tyrell/Renfrow: 18.1 – 18.8
Although a scheme usually stronger against WRs, multiple good receivers have performed well against Indy this year:
– Hopkins 2nd best game of the year vs IND
– Hopkins targets since W6: 12, 12, 13, 11, 12
Sharp’s RZ Blend Off that NE has faced:
– 30, 21, 31, 18, 32, 24, 31, 23, 6
– BAL, the 6th, scored 4 TDs on 4 RZ possessions
– PHI ranks 13th in this metric
Sharp’s Off Eff that NE has faced:
– 28, 31, 32, 26, 30, 24, 32, 25, 4
– BAL, the 4th, scored 30 offensive points
– PHI ranks 17th in this metric
Sharp’s 3rd Down Conv Off that NE has faced:
– 21, 26, 32, 23, 31, 18, 32, 29, 5
– BAL, the 5th, converted 5 of 10 3rd downs
– PHI ranks 4th in this metric
Falcons at Saints, Week 9
Thought Taysom for sure at beginning of week, but Nick Underhill making it seem like it’s Siemian (at least for this week) and not Taysom (returning from concussion). Nick was early to Taysom last year when everyone thought Jameis, so I’d almost be surprised now if it WASN’T Siemian (at least that’s how much I trust Nick’s reporting)
Deonte Harris been Saints best receiver this season but he’s still 5’6” in a limited passing offense
Siemian better for AK’s scoring chances but Taysom is playing some role regardless, which means even some of AKs immense TD upside is now limited again
Texans at Colts, Week 6
Get right spot for Brandin Cooks vs Defense hemorrhaging WR & QB production, and now missing multiple starters too. May attach Cooks to any Taylor roster to mitigate Taylor ownership, as he’s the most likely to push IND into keeping Taylor on the field more vs Mack in blowout.
Hilton’s return would muddle Pittman’s dominant market share a little bit so I will keep eye on that. Pittman an interesting leverage play off Taylor, but may stay away if all of Pittman, Hilton, Pascal, Campbell are playing
Dolphins at Buccaneers, Week 5
Antonio Brown still the best “man-beater” of the three. A few better throws or he makes that catch at end of game vs heavy-man NE and he’s coming off a big score. This sets up well for him in same way last week did imo, and the most likely of the three for the top score, especially if Fournette disappoints.
TB been bad vs TEs throughout Bowles tenure in TB, down most of their secondary, Gesicki basically an oversized WR and has been Brissett’s top target beyond the line of scrimmage. TB strong vs YAC makes Waddle far less interesting.
Titans at Patriots, Wild Card
Notable running back production vs NE:
– Gore / Yeldon: 17 att 109yds / 4 rec (4) 68yds
– Chubb: 20 att 131yds (2 FL)
– Ingram: 15 att 115yds, 2 rec (3) 29yds
– Elliott: 21 att 86yds, 4 rec (4) 40yds
– Duke: 9 att 36yds, 5 rec (6) 54yds, TD
– Mixon: 25 att 136yds, 3 rec (3) 20yds
Derrick Henry last 6 games:
– 23 att 188yds, 2 TD
– 19 att 159yds, 2 TD
– 26 att 149yds, TD
– 18 att 103yds, 2 TD
– 21 att 86yds
– 32 att 211yds, 3 TD
Brady vs Dean Pees since he left NE:
BAL DC:
– (’12, L 30-31) 335yds, TD
– (’12, L 13-28) 320yds, TD, 2 INT
– (’13, W 41-7) 172yds, TD
– (’14, W 35-31) 367yds, 3 TD, INT, rush TD
– (’16, W 30-23) 406yds, 3 TD, INT
TEN DC:
– (’18, L 10-34) 254yds
Seahawks at Eagles, Wild Card
Wilson vs Jim Schwartz:
DET HC:
– (‘12, L 24-28) 236yds, 2 TD, INT; 1 att 9yds
PHI DC:
– (‘16, W 26-15) 272yds, TD; 8 att 19yds; rec TD
– (’17, W 24-10) 227yds, 3 TD; 6 att 31yds
– (’19, W 17-9) 200yds, TD, INT; 3 att 15yds
TEs with 6+ targets vs SEA in 2019:
– McDonald: 7 rec (7) 38yds, 2 TD
– Everett: 7 rec (11) 136yds
– Seals-Jones: 3 rec (6) 47yds, TD
– Andrews: 2 rec (8) 39yds
– Hooper: 6 rec (7) 65yds, TD
– Dwelley: 3 rec (7) 24yds
– Ertz: 12 rec (14) 91yds, TD
– Goedert: 7 rec (8) 32yds
– Rudolph: 4 rec (6) 50yds, TD
– Higbee: 7 rec (11) 116yds
– Kittle: 7 rec (7) 86yds
– Goedert has 6+ targets in all 7 games post-bye
– Goedert’s last 2 games with Ertz hurt: 9 rec (12) 91yds, TD and 4 rec (10) 65yds
Bills at Texans, Wild Card
Devin Singletary since becoming more full-time:
– 20 att 95yds, TD; 3 rec (4) 45yds
– 8 att 42yds; 3 rec (6) 8yds
– 15 att 75yds; 1 rec (1) 4yds
– 21 att 106yds; 1 rec (2) 8yds
– 14 att 63yds; 3 rec (4) 38yds, TD
– 17 att 89yds; 6 rec (8) 29yds
– 21 att 87yds; 2 rec (3) 2yds; FL
– 15 att 46yds; 1 rec (1) 2yds
Singletary averaging 5.6 yds/touch
PFF grades HOU D as 30th in total missed tackles
HOU D vs RBs:
– 4th most receptions allowed
– 3rd most rec yards allowed
– Most rec TDs allowed
Notable stacks vs HOU:
– Brees/Thomas/Ginn/Kamara: 24.8 – 25.3 – 20.1 – 23.9
– Rivers/Keenan: 23.6 – 46.6
– Ryan/Ridley/Freeman: 35.9 – 19.8 – 18.0
– Mahomes/Hill: 20.8 – 25
– Brissett/Hilton/Pascal/Ebron: 31.6 – 19.4 – 31.6 – 17.0
– Carr/Tyrell/Renfrow: 23.4 – 18.1 – 18.8
– Jackson/Ingram/Edwards: 32.8 – 23.5 – 20.2
– Brady/Edelman/White: 28.3 – 24.9 – 37.7
– Lock/Fant: 27.9 – 24.3
– Tannehill/Brown/Jonnu: 25.2 – 28.4 – 16.7
– Winston/Perriman/Jones: 18.0 – 20.2 – 19.9
– Tannehill/Brown/Henry: 17.9 – 25.4 – 42.1
Watson vs top-12 pass efficiency def:
– (CAR) 160yds; 3 att 12yds, TD
– (KC) 280yds, TD, 2 INT; 10 att 42yds, TD
– (BAL) 169yds, INT; 3 att 12yds
– (NE) 234yds, 3 TD; 4 att -1yds; rec TD
– (TB) 184yds, INT; 7 att 37yds
– 12.6, 31.4, 6.0, 28.9, 10.1
Hopkins vs top-12 pass eff def:
– 5 rec (8) 41yds
– 9 rec (12) 55yds
– 7 rec (12) 80yds
– 5 rec (8) 64yds; pass TD
– 5 rec (9) 23yds
Vikings at Saints, Wild Card
Brees at home in the playoffs:
– (2006, PHI, W 27-24) 243yds, TD; FL
– (2009, ARI, W 45-14) 247yds, 3 TD
– (2009, MIN, W 31-28) 197yds, 3 TD
– (2011, DET, W 45-28) 466yds, 3 TD, FL
– (2017, CAR, W 31-26) 376yds, 2 TD, INT
– (2018, PHI, W 20-14) 301yds, 2 TD, INT
– (2018, LAR, L 23-26) 249yds, 2 TD, INT
Brees vs Mike Zimmer:
– W (2006, DAL DC) 384yds, 5 TD
– W (2007, ATL DC) 219yds, 2 TD, INT
– W (2007, ATL DC) 328yds, 3 TD
– W (2010, CIN DC) 313yds, 2 TD, INT
– W (2014, MIN HC) 293yds, 2 TD
– L (2017, MIN HC) 291yds, TD
– L (2017, MIN HC) 294yds, 3 TD, 2 INT
– W (2018, MIN HC) 120yds, TD, INT
Brees hot finish (pass eff def rank)
– (SF, L 46-48) 349yds, 6 TD (2nd)
– (IND, W 34-7) 307yds, 4 TD (14th)
– (TEN, W 38-28) 279yds, 3 TD (23rd)
– (CAR, W 42-10) 253yds, 3 TD (8th)
Notable QBs vs MIN 2019 (11th in pass eff def):
– Ryan: 304yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
– Rodgers: 209yds, 2 TD; 216yds, INT
– Carr: 242yds, 2 TD, INT
– Wentz: 306yds, 2 TD, INT
– Stafford: 364yds, 4 TD, INT
– Prescott: 397yds, 3 TD, INT
– Wilson: 240yds, 2 TD, INT
– Rivers: 307yds, TD, 3 INT
Thomas with Brees in 2019:
Home:
– 10 rec (13) 123yds
– 11 rec (11) 112yds, TD
– 13 rec (14) 152yds
– 10 rec (11) 101yds, TD
– 11 rec (15) 134yds, TD
– 12 rec (12) 128yds, TD
Away:
– 8 rec (11) 114yds, TD
– 6 rec (8) 48yds
– 12 rec (17) 136yds, TD
– 4 rec (9) 37yds
Thomas in the Playoffs:
– (2017, H, CAR) 8 rec (9) 131yds
– (2017, A, MIN) 7 rec (13) 85yds, 2 TD
– (2018, H, PHI) 12 rec (16) 171yds, TD
– (2018, H, LAR) 4 rec (7) 36yds
High-usage TEs vs MIN 2019:
– Hooper: 9 rec (9) 77yds
– Waller: 13 rec (14) 134yds
– Engram: 6 rec (11) 42yds
– Ertz: 4 rec (9) 54yds
– Goedert: 5 rec (8) 48yds
– Kelce: 7 rec (9) 62yds (Matt Moore)
– Fant: 4 rec (11) 60yds
– Hollister: 6 rec (8) 44yds
Jared Cook with Brees since both returned:
– 6 rec (10) 74yds
– 2 rec (2) 33yds, TD
– 6 rec (8) 99yds, TD
– 3 rec (6) 85yds
– 2 rec (2) 64yds, 2 TD (INJ on TD in 1st Q)
– 4 rec (4) 54yds
– 3 rec (4) 84yds, 2 TD
– 2 rec (2) 44yds, TD
– Leads team in endzone targets
MIN vs RBs:
– Only 3 RBs over 100 rush yds (D Will, Carson, Jones x2)
o Williams needed 80yd TD to do it
– Some notable RB receiving lines allowed:
o Jones/Williams: 7 rec (10) 47yds, TD
o Sanders: 3 rec (3) 86yds, TD
o McKissic/Ty: 6 rec (7) 59yds
o Penny: 4 rec (5) 33yds, TD
o Ekeler: 5 rec (7) 62yds
o Gordon: 5 rec (7) 36yds
– T-9th with 12 RB TDs allowed
– Eric Kendricks is questionable to play
Kamara vs MIN as full-time player:
– (2017 Div) 11 att 43yds; 4 rec (7) 62yds, TD
– (2018) 13 att 45yds, TD; 7 rec (8) 31yds, TD
Kirk Cousins vs Dennis Allen & the Saints:
– (2017, L 31-34) 322yds, 3 TD; 2 sacks
o Lattimore out early
– (2018, L 20-30) 359yds, 2 TD, INT; 4 sacks
o Rank/Davenport 4 sacks: both on IR
Diggs & Thielen vs Dennis Allen Saints D:
– 7 rec (8) 93yds, 2 TD
– 6 rec (10) 137yds, TD
o (5 rec (9) 76yds before miracle play)
– 10 rec (11) 119yds, TD
–
– 9 rec (10) 157yds
– 6 rec (9) 74yds
– 7 rec (7) 103yds, TD
Notable WRs vs NOR 2019:
– Hopkins: 8 rec (13) 111yds, 2 TD
– Kupp: 5 rec (9) 120yds (down at 1)
– Lockett: 11 rec (14) 154yds, TD
– Cooper: 5 rec (8) 48yds
– Godwin: 7 rec (9) 125yds, 2 TD; 3 rec (6) 47yds, TD
– Evans: 0 rec 0yds; 4 rec (8) 69yds
– Chark: 3 rec (7) 43yds
– Robinson: 10 rec (16) 87yds, TD
– Kirk: 8 rec (11) 79yds; 19 rush yds
– Moore: 6 rec (9) 126yds, 2 TD
– Ridley: 8 rec (10) 91yds
– Sanders: 7 rec (9) 157yds, TD
– Deebo: 5 rec (8) 76yds; 33 rush yds
– Hilton: 4 rec (9) 25yds
– AJ Brown: 1 rec (2) 34yds; 49 rush yds, TD
– Sharpe: 5 rec (6) 69yds, 2 TD
Eagles at Giants, Week 17
Miles Sanders since Jordan Howard went down:
– (NE) 11 att 38yds; 2 rec (4) 9yds (85% snaps)
– (SEA) 12 att 63yds; 3 rec (5) 23yds (85%)
– (MIA) 17 att 83yds; 5 rec (5) 22yds, TD (88%)
– (NYG) 15 att 45yds; 4 rec (5) 24yds (57%)
– (WAS) 19 att 122yds, TD; 6 rec (6) 50yds, TD (71%)
– (DAL) 20 att 79yds, TD; 5 rec (6) 77yds (82%)
Ertz/Goedert amidst Philly injuries:
– 9 rec (11) 103yds, TD / 4 rec (5) 39yds
– 9 rec (11) 94yds / 3 rec (6) 36yds, TD
– 12 rec (14) 91yds, TD / 7 rec (8) 32yds
– 3 rec (6) 24yds / 6 rec (7) 66yds
– 9 rec (13) 91yds, 2 TD / 3 rec (6) 41yds
– 5 rec (10) 61yds, TD / 5 rec (6) 55yds
– 4 rec (6) 28yds / 9 rec (12) 91yds, TD
Ertz may miss game with rib injury
– Raybon’s injury study showed an 18% decrease in fantasy production across 17 TE rib injury designations (13% decrease for 45 WR designations)
Greg Ward:
– NYG allowing 3rd most WR DK ppg
– Since taking 70% of snaps:
o (NYG) 4 rec (9) 34yds
o (WAS) 7 rec (9) 61yds, TD
o (DAL) 4 rec (5) 71yds
Boston Scott last 3 games:
– (NYG) 10 att 59yds, TD; 6 rec (6) 69yds (43% snaps)
– (WAS) 6 att 26yds; 7 rec (7) 39yds (45% snaps)
– (DAL) 3 att 12yds; 6 rec (6) 7yds (28% snaps)
Browns at Bengals, Week 17
CIN RB D:
– 28th in Rush Eff Def
– 28th in Explosive Rush Def
– 31st in RB Pass Eff Def
Nick Chubb vs. bottom-12 Rush Eff D:
– (BAL) 20 att 165yds, 3 TD; 3 rec (4) 18yds
– (SEA) 20 att 122yds, 2 TD; 5 rec (6) 17yds
– (MIA) 21 att 106yds, TD; 3 rec (3) 58yds
– (CIN) 15 att 106yds; 1 rec (1) 11yds
– (BAL) 15 att 45yds
Kareem Hunt in 2019:
– 4 att 30yds; 7 rec (9) 44yds
– 6 att 12yds; 6 rec (8) 46yds
– 8 att 37yds, TD; 2 rec (3) 9yds
– 7 att 46yds; 5 rec (5) 19yds, TD
– 9 att 28yds, TD; 2 rec (2) 40yds
– 4 att 14yds; 8 rec (9) 62yds
– 3 att 0yds; 4 rec (4) 33yds
Snaps: Chubb leads when ahead, Hunt leads when trailing
Saints at Panthers, Week 17
**Important motivation notes:
– Saints will go in trying to win, but if they start scoreboard watching GB and see an obvious win taking place over DET, the Saints winning no longer matters. They will be the 2 or 3 seed depending on SF/SEA and irregardless of their own loss. This isn’t to say you can’t trust Saints players here, but just go in prepared with this information.
– Thomas needs just under 100yds to join the top 5 yardage seasons of all time
CAR has the worst run defense in NFL and has allowed an unholy amount of running back touchdowns on the year (28, last by 7)
– Kamara still doesn’t look quite like himself after a high ankle sprain in Week 6. He can still be effective enough in this offense + matchup, but his unique abilities that allowed him to overcome his high price on less touches are just not there right now
– Murray has been an effective runner this year but he’s still not getting enough touches to matter outside of Showdown slates
Although CAR has been strong vs TEs, Cook dominated this matchup in Week 12. He even had multiple near-TDs on EZ targets and a huge gain wiped out from a bad OPI.
– Averaging 3.7 rec (5.1) for 70.43yds per game and 6 TDs while leading team in EZ targets since both he and Brees returned 7 games ago
Thomas with Brees in 2019 (DEF rank in ppg to WRs):
Home:
– 10 rec (13) 123yds (19th)
– 11 rec (11) 112yds, TD (23rd)
– 13 rec (14) 152yds (17th)
– 10 rec (11) 101yds, TD (25th)
– 11 rec (15) 134yds, TD (13th)
– 12 rec (12) 128yds, TD (22nd)
Away:
– 8 rec (11) 114yds, TD (32nd)
– 6 rec (8) 48yds (17th)
– 12 rec (17) 136yds, TD (20th)
Notable Saints vs CAR since 2017:
’17 Week 3 (A):
– Brees: 220yds, 3 TD
– Thomas: 7 rec (8) 87yds, TD
– Ginn: 2 rec (3) 44yds, TD; 1 att 15yds
– Kamara: 2 att 37yds, TD; 3 rec (5) 5yds
’17 Week 13 (H):
– Brees: 269yds, TD
– Thomas: 5 rec (9) 70yds, TD
– Kamara: 9 att 60yds, 2 TD; 5 rec (6) 66yds
– Ingram: 14 att 85yds, TD; 6 rec (7) 37yds
’17 Wildcard (H):
– Brees: 376yds, 2 TD, INT
– Thomas: 8 rec (9) 131yds
– Ginn: 4 rec (6) 115yds, TD
– Kamara: 10 att 23yds, TD; 1 rec (3) 10yds
’18 Week 15 (A):
– Brees: 203yds, INT
– Thomas: 7 rec (9) 49yds
– Kamara: 14 att 67yds, TD; 7 rec (9) 36yds
– Ingram: 12 att 63yds; 2 rec (2) 11yds
’19 Week 12 (H):
– Brees: 311yds, 3 TD, INT
– Thomas: 10 rec (11) 101yds, TD
– Cook: 6 rec (8) 99yds, TD
– Kamara: 11 att 54yds; 9 rec (9) 48yds
– Murray: 7 att 64yds, TD
Saints have allowed the 5th most receptions to running backs
CMC receiving lines since Week 11:
– 11 rec (15) 121yds
– 9 rec (9) 69yds, TD
– 7 rec (12) 58yds
– 11 rec (12) 82yds
– 8 rec (10) 88yds
– 15 rec (15) 119yds
CMC vs NOR career:
– 4 att 16yds; 9 rec (11) 101yds
– 6 att 16yds; 5 rec (6) 33yds, TD
– 6 att 16yds; 6 rec (8) 101yds, TD
– 15 att 53yds; 8 rec (11) 67yds; 50yd pass TD
– 22 att 64yds, TD; 9 rec (9) 69yds, TD
– 23.7, 15.9, 26.7, 26.0, 34.3
Saints dealing with a load of defensive injuries and have had some tackling miscues of late (see Jonnu and AJ Brown TDs, Dion Lewis evading guys)
Cowboys at Eagles, Week 16
DAL has allowed 3rd most receptions to TEs
Ertz/Goedert amidst Philly injuries:
– 9 rec (11) 103yds, TD / 4 rec (5) 39yds
– 9 rec (11) 94yds / 3 rec (6) 36yds, TD
– 12 rec (14) 91yds, TD / 7 rec (8) 32yds
– 3 rec (6) 24yds / 6 rec (7) 66yds
– 9 rec (13) 91yds, 2 TD / 3 rec (6) 41yds
– 5 rec (10) 61yds, TD / 5 rec (6) 55yds
Notable RB receiving vs DAL:
– Gallman: 3 rec (3) 24yds
– Thompson: 5 rec (8) 48yds
– Drake: 3 rec (6) 34yds
– Kamara: 3 rec (3) 20yds
– Jones: 7 rec (8) 75yds
– Saquon: 6 rec (8) 67yds
– Dalvin: 7 rec (7) 86yds
– McKissic: 3 rec (4) 40yds
– Singletary: 3 rec (4) 38yds, TD
– Cohen: 6 rec (6) 24yds
– Gurley: 3 rec (6) 18yds, TD
Miles Sanders:
– Avg 3 rec on 3.7 targets for 30.9yds per game
– 5 games above 40yds receiving
– Touches last 6 weeks:
o 10 att, 3 targ
o 11 att, 4 targ
o 12 att, 5 targ
o 17 att, 5 targ
o 15 att, 5 targ
o 19 att, 6 targ
Boston Scott last 2 weeks:
– 10 att 59yds, TD; 6 rec (6) 69yds; (43% snaps)
– 6 att 26yds; 7 rec (7) 39yds; (45% snaps)
Saints at Titans, Week 16
Brees Outdoors since start of 2017:
– (CAR, 34-13) 220yds, 3 TD
– (MIA, 20-0) 268yds, 2 TD
– (GB, 26-17) 331, TD, 2 INT, rush TD
– (BUF, 47-10) 184yds, rush TD
– (LAR, 20-26) 246yds, TD
– (TB, 24-31) 245yds, TD
– (NYG, 33-18) 217yds
– (BAL, 24-23) 212yds, 2 TD
– (CIN, 51-14) 265yds, 3 TD, rush TD
– (TB, 28-14) 201yds, TD, INT; rush TD
– (CAR, 12-9) 203yds, INT
– (TB, 34-17) 228yds, 3 TD
Saints are 10-2 with some big offensive performances, but Brees has still only cleared 300yds once. Pay attention to the statuses of Larry Warford and Terron Armstead as well. Offensive line play fell off severely due to injuries end of 2018 and Brees’s fantasy performance suffered (also sacked twice a game during those last 4 games which is unusual for Brees)
Brees career vs Dean Pees as a Def Coord:
– (NE 2009, 38-17 W) 371yds, 5 TD
– (BAL 2014, 27-34 L) 420yds, 3 TD, INT
– Both games were in Superdome
Jared Cook with Brees since both returned:
– 6 rec (10) 74yds
– 2 rec (2) 33yds, TD
– 6 rec (8) 99yds, TD
– 3 rec (6) 85yds
– 2 rec (2) 64yds, 2 TD (INJ on TD in 1st Q)
– 4 rec (4) 54yds
– Leads team in endzone targets
Michael Thomas with Brees 2019:
– (vs HOU) 10 rec (13) 123yds
– (vs ARI) 11 rec (11) 112yds, TD
– (vs ATL) 13 rec (14) 152yds
– (@ TB) 8 rec (10) 114yds, TD
– (vs CAR) 10 rec (11) 101yds, TD
– (@ ATL) 6 rec (8) 48yds
– (vs SF) 11 rec (15) 134yds, TD
– (vs IND) 12 rec 128yds, TD
Derrick Henry been on INJ report for hamstring last 2 weeks
Raybon’s Injury Study (2008-15):
– 85 hamstring designations
– 3.2% drop in fantasy production
– 12.9% drop in 38 truly questionable games
NOR injuries to Rankins (IR), Davenport (IR), Bell (Q), Alonso (Q) are significant hits to the run defense and pass rush
Rams at 49ers, Week 16
Kittle last 4 vs. Wade Phillips Rams D:
– 4 rec (6) 100yds
– 5 rec (8) 98yds, TD
– 9 rec (14) 149yds, TD
– 8 rec (8) 103yds
Grady Jarrett made life difficult on SF’s banged up interior:
– RB trio combined for 22 att 105yds, TD, 2 FL
– SF scored 22 (8pts below season avg)
– 313 yds of offense (70yds below season avg)
– This is against the 25th/20th ranked D in Points/Yards
Now SF gets Aaron Donald and the 15th/12th ranked D in Points/Yards
Bills at Patriots, Week 16
Notable running back production vs NE:
– Gore/Yeldon: 17 att 109yds / 4 rec (4) 68yds
– Chubb: 20 att 131yds (2 FL)
– Ingram: 15 att 115yds, 2 rec (3) 29yds
– Elliott: 21 att 86yds, 4 rec (4) 40yds
– Duke: 9 att 36yds, 5 rec (6) 54yds, TD
– Mixon: 25 att 136yds, 3 rec (3) 20yds
Devin Singletary since becoming more full-time:
– 20 att 95yds, TD; 3 rec (4) 45yds
– 8 att 42yds; 3 rec (6) 8yds
– 15 att 75yds; 1 rec (1) 4yds
– 21 att 106yds; 1 rec (2) 8yds
– 14 att 63yds; 3 rec (4) 38yds, TD
– 17 att 89yds; 6 rec (8) 29yds
– 21 att 87yds; 2 rec (3) 2yds; FL
Singletary averaging 5.6 yds/touch (Kamara was 5.8 in 2018)
Texans at Buccaneers, Week 16
Notable stacks vs HOU:
– Brees/Thomas/Ginn/Kamara: 24.8 – 25.3 – 20.1 – 23.9
– Rivers/Keenan: 23.6 – 46.6
– Ryan/Ridley/Freeman: 35.9 – 19.8 – 18.0
– Mahomes/Hill: 20.8 – 25
– Brissett/Hilton/Pascal/Ebron: 31.6 – 19.4 – 31.6 – 17.0
– Carr/Tyrell/Renfrow: 23.4 – 18.1 – 18.8
– Jackson/Andrews/Ingram/Edwards: 32.8 – 17.5 – 23.5 – 20.2
– Brady/Edelman/White: 28.3 – 24.9 – 37.7
– Lock/Fant: 27.9 – 24.3
– Tannehill/Brown/Jonnu: 25.2 – 28.4 – 16.7
Winston targets after Godwin left game:
– 4: Brate
– 2: Barber
– 1: Perriman (TD), Hudson, Watson, Hyman
Cam Brate:
– Only 2 games above 60% snaps
– (67%, TEN) 3 rec (6) 32yds
– (75%, NOR) 10 rec (14) 73yds
– 3 highest target games were those 2 + last week
OJ Howard (Season-high 8 targets last week):
– Last 3:
o 5 rec (6) 61yds
o 4 rec (5) 73yds
o 4 rec (8) 46yds
TB allowing 5th most QB DK ppg:
Deshaun Watson has 7 huge games out of 14:
– 31.7, 29.8, 44.7, 31.4, 27.8, 28.9, 30.1
Opponent points in those 7 games:
– 30, 20, 32, 24, 24, 22, 38
Although with major injuries, TB avg 3rd-highest 29.7ppg
Texans at Titans, Week 15
Notable stacks vs HOU:
– Brees/Thomas/Ginn/Kamara: 24.8 – 25.3 – 20.1 – 23.9
– Rivers/Keenan: 23.6 – 46.6
– Ryan/Ridley/Freeman: 35.9 – 19.8 – 18.0
– Mahomes/Hill: 20.8 – 25
– Brissett/Hilton/Pascal/Ebron: 31.6 – 19.4 – 31.6 – 17.0
– Carr/Tyrell/Renfrow: 23.4 – 18.1 – 18.8
– Jackson/Andrews/Ingram/Edwards: 32.8 – 17.5 – 23.5 – 20.2
– Brady/Edelman/White: 28.3 – 24.9 – 37.7
– Lock/Fant: 27.9 – 24.3
TEN stacks with Tannehill:
– Tanny/Davis/Henry: 23.2 – 20.0 – 17.8
– Tanny/Jonnu: 19.4 – 19.8
– Tanny/Henry: 28.0 – 24.9
– Tanny/Firkser/Henry: 19.9 – 12.6 – 36.1
– Tanny/Brown/Henry: 33.4 – 26.5 – 32.5
– Tanny/Henry: 14.8 – 27.6
– Tanny/Brown/Henry: 31.5 – 26.5 – 26.9
Per @ScottBarrettDFB, HOU has most missed tackles (8 more than #31)
– Next up: Derrick Henry
Rams at Cowboys, Week 15
DAL is 24th in Pass Eff Def
Jared Goff vs DEF outside top-20 in Pass Eff Def (2019):
– (26th ATL) 268yds, 2 TD, Rush TD; 25.0pts
– (30th CIN) 372yds, 2 TD; 25.9pts
– (29th ARI) 424yds, 2 TD; 28.0pts
Notable RB receiving vs DAL:
– Gallman: 3 rec (3) 24yds
– Thompson: 5 rec (8) 48yds
– Drake: 3 rec (6) 34yds
– Kamara: 3 rec (3) 20yds
– Jones: 7 rec (8) 75yds
– Saquon: 6 rec (8) 67yds
– Dalvin: 7 rec (7) 86yds
– McKissic: 3 rec (4) 40yds
– Singletary: 3 rec (4) 38yds, TD
– Cohen: 6 rec (6) 24yds
If you don’t include annihilation to BAL, Gurley’s last 3 games:
– (CHI) 25 att 97yds, TD; 3 rec (3) 36yds
– (ARI) 19 att 95yds, TD; 1 rec (1) 20yds
– (SEA) 23 att 79yds, TD; 4 rec (4) 34yds
Slot WRs vs DAL last 4 weeks:
– Amendola: 4 rec (5) 47yds
– Edelman: 8 rec (13) 93yds
– Beasley: 6 rec (7) 110yds, TD
– Miller: 3 rec (4) 42yds, TD
Cooper Kupp last 2 weeks:
– 6 rec (6) 65yds, TD (72% snaps)
– 4 rec (4) 45yds, TD (29% snaps)
– Kupp was above 85% in every game but 1 before last 2 weeks
#1 WRs have underperformed vs DAL, but here’s Woods last 4:
– 7 rec (11) 95yds
– 6 rec (9) 97yds
– 13 rec (18) 172yds
– 7 rec (9) 98yds, TD; 2 att 29yds
Falcons at 49ers, Week 15
SF D’s stretch of efficient offenses is over
– D is still really good even if not historic like early schedule led some to believe
– After ARI, SEA, GB, BAL, NOR, now gets #21 ATL minus Ridley
– SF and NOR both lost key defensive players in that great game last week, so SF will be without Sherman, Ford, and possibly Tartt again
– ATL O-Line has been so ineffective that this probably won’t matter too much this week, but guarding Julio without Sherman could present a big issue
Only game Ridley didn’t play a normal amount of snaps (hurt early):
– (vs TB WK6 2018): 14 and 10 targets for Julio and Hooper
Julio Jones:
– 5 targets on Ryan’s 11 attempts in 2nd half without Ridley
Desmond Trufant on IR with already stuggling secondary:
– Sanders saw most targets since W9 vs ARI (huge game, at least looked like he was past his rib injury)
– Deebo’s last 5 games:
o 8 rec (11) 112yds
o 8 rec (10) 134yds
o 2 rec (2) 50yds, TD
o 2 rec (4) 41yds, TD; 1 att 20yds
o 5 rec (8) 76yds; 2 att 33yds
Notable TEs vs ATL:
– Ertz: 8 rec (16) 72yds
– Ebron/Doyle: 7 rec (8) 93yds
– Fells: 2 rec (2) 20yds, 2 TD
– Williams: 3 rec (3) 34yds, TD
– Everett: 4 rec (10) 50yds, TD
– Cook: 6 rec (10) 74yds, 3 rec (6) 85yds (dropped TDs in both)
– Olsen: 5 rec (5) 57yds
– Thomas: 5 rec (10) 57yds, TD
Kittle since return from injury:
– 6 rec (6) 129yds, TD (79% snaps)
– 2 rec (4) 17yds (100% snaps)
– 6 rec (8) 67yds, TD (93% snaps)
Seahawks at Panthers, Week 15
CAR has the worst run defense in the league:
– 30.8 DK ppg to RBs (31st)
– 21 rush TDs to RBs (32nd by 7 TDs!)
– 3 rec TDs to RBs
– 120.85 rush yd/g to RBs (31st)
– 25.38 rec yd/g to RBs (1st)
Rashad Penny to IR
Chris Carson:
– Touches: 22, 18, 16, 26, 29, 28, 26, 21, 19, 29, 12, 25, 19
– 5 games over 100 rush yds
– 5 rush TDs, 2 rec TDs
Eagles at Redskins, Week 15
Zach Ertz amidst PHI injuries:
– 9 rec (11) 103yds, TD
– 9 rec (11) 94yds
– 12 rec (14) 91yds, TD
– 3 rec (6) 24yds
– 9 rec (13) 91yds, 2 TD
Notable TEs vs WAS:
– Ertz: 5 rec (7) 54yds
– Engram: 4 rec (7) 54yds
– Gesicki: 3 rec (7) 51yds
– Kittle: 3 rec (5) 38yds
– Griffin: 5 rec (5) 109yds, TD
– Olsen: 3 rec (3) 22yds (INJ in game)
– Graham: 3 rec (5) 49yds
– Others to score: Witten, Izzo, Brown, Thomas, Tonyan
Dolphins at Giants, Week 15
Saquon Barkley:
– Only other game vs bottom-12 rush eff D:
o (BUF) 18 att 107yds, TD, 3 rec (7) 28yds
– Only other game in top-10 RB matchup:
o (DET) 19 att 64yds, 8 rec (10) 79yds, TD
– Only other game in both:
o (GB) 19 att 83yds, 3 rec (7) 32yds
NYG D RB Receiving:
– RoJo: 1 rec (1) 41yds
– Thompson: 4 rec (5) 56yds
– Dalvin: 6 rec (6) 86yds
– White: 9 rec (9) 46yds
– Bell: 4 rec (4) 34yds
– Cohen: 7 rec (9) 29yds
– Williams: 4 rec (4) 26yds
– Boston Scott: 6 rec (6) 69yds
– Last 3 wks (CHI, GB, PHI): 9, 8, 10 rec to RBs
Patrick Laird receiving:
– 2 rec (2) 15yds (8 snaps)
– 6 rec (6) 51yds (16 snaps)
– 0 rec (1) 0yds (23 snaps)
– 4 rec (5) 43yds (42 snaps)
– 4 rec (5) 38yds (59 snaps)
Colts at Saints, Week 15
Unless Brady goes off vs CIN, this is probably a lock for Brees to break another all-time record on primetime (Manning 539, Brady 536, Brees 537). I will have actual data to follow, but personally I’ll always back Brees/Payton on primetime when a record is in reach
– ATL 2011: 307yds, 4 TD, 2 INT (W 45-16)
– SD 2012: 370yds, 4 TD, INT (W 31-24)
– WAS 2018: 363yds, 3 TD (W 43-19)
IND vs QBs:
– 300+yds: Rivers, Ryan, Mahomes, Watson, Winston
– Foles & Watson also had games of 296 & 298
– 2+ TDs: Rivers, Ryan, Carr, Foles, Watson, Tanny, Winston
– Flacco only QB not to score vs IND
– 2+ TDs 4 weeks straight
Drew Brees 2019:
– 300.3 passing yds/g in 7 full games
– Touchdowns: 2, 3, 0, 3, 3, 1, 6
– DK pts: 24.8, 28.9, 11.5, 21.1, 26.4, 11.3, 43.1
Brees dominance Home on Primetime last 10 years:
– (2019 HOU) 370yd, 2 TD, INT
– (2018 ATL Thurs) 171yds, 4 TD, INT
– (2018 WAS) 363yds, 3 TD
– (2016 ATL) 376yds, 3 TD, INT
– (2015 DET) 341yds, 3 TD
– (2015 ATL Thurs) 312yds, TD
– (2015 DAL) 359yds, 2 TD
– (2014 BAL) 420yds, 3 TD, INT
– (2014 GB) 311yds, 3 TD
– (2013 DAL) 392yds, 4 TD
– (2013 MIA) 413yds, 4 TD
– (2012 PHI) 239yds, 2 TD
– (2012 SD) 370yds, 4 TD, INT
– (2011 DET) 466yds, 3 TD & 342yds, 3 TD
– (2011 ATL) 307yd, 4 TD, 2 INT
– (2011 NYG) 363yds, 4 TD, rush TD
– (2011 IND) 325yds, 5 TD
– (2010 PIT) 305yds, 2 TD, INT
– (2010 MIN Thurs) 237yds, TD
– (2009 DAL) 298yds, TD, INT
– (2009 NE) 371yds, 5 TD
– (2009 ATL) 308yds, 2 TD, INT
19/23 games over 300yds
15/23 games 3+ touchdowns
23/23 games 1+ touchdowns
TD/INT ratio of 68 : 10
W/L record of 19-4
IND D designed to limit big plays and WR production, yet it has struggled more this year with injuries and execution
– IND D ranks 27th in Explosive Pass rate allowed to WRs
Here are WRs to produce vs IND in 2019:
– Keenan: 8 rec (10) 123yds, TD
– Julio: 8 rec (9) 128yds, TD
– Tyrell: 3 rec (7) 36yds, TD
– Pringle: 6 rec (9) 103yds, TD
– Hopkins: 9 rec (12) 106yds, TD
– Stills: 4 rec (5) 105yds
– Chark: 8 rec (15) 104yds, 2 TD
– Fuller: 7 rec (11) 140yds
– Hopkins: 6 rec (8) 94yds, 2 TD
– Evans: 1 rec (1) 61yds, TD (INJ on TD)
– Godwin: 7 rec (9) 91yds
Michael Thomas with Brees 2019:
– (vs HOU) 10 rec (13) 123yds
– (vs ARI) 11 rec (11) 112yds, TD
– (vs ATL) 13 rec (14) 152yds
– (@ TB) 8 rec (10) 114yds, TD
– (vs CAR) 10 rec (11) 101yds, TD
– (@ ATL) 6 rec (8) 48yds
– (vs SF) 11 rec (15) 134yds, TD
IND vs notable TEs:
– Henry: 4 rec (5) 60yds
– Walker: 4 rec (6) 39yds
– Hooper: 6 rec (7) 66yds, 2 TD
– Waller: 7 rec (8) 53yds
– Moreau: 3 rec (3) 30yds, TD
– Kelce: 4 rec (10) 70yds
– Fant: 5 rec (8) 26yds
– Vance: 5 rec (7) 30yds, TD
– Gesicki: 3 rec (6) 28yds
– Howard: 4 rec (5) 73yds
– Brate: 4 rec (4) 30yds, TD
Jared Cook with Brees:
– 2 rec (3) 37yds
– Targeted on 2 deep routes on Brees’s 6 att
– 6 rec (10) 74yds
– 2 rec (2) 33yds, TD
– 6 rec (8) 99yds, TD (+deep catch called back)
– 3 rec (6) 85yds (dropped TD; just missed deep ball)
– 2 rec (2) 64yds, 2 TD (INJ on TD in 1st Q)
Jared Cook vs Eberflus’s Colts D in 2018:
– 4 rec (5) 74yds, TD
IND RB D:
– 5th in RB DK ppg allowed
– 28th in RB receptions allowed
– T-3rd in RB TDs allowed
– 21st in Rush Eff Def
Only notable RB games vs IND:
– Ekeler: 12 att 58yds, TD; 6 rec (7) 96yds, 2 TD
– Henry: 15 att 81yds, TD; 2 rec (3) 12yds
– Samuels: 8 att 10yds; 13 rec (13) 73yds
– Henry: 26 att 149yds, TD; 3 rec (3) 17yds
Kamara/Murray since AK return from ankle sprain:
– AK: 4 att 24yds; 8 rec (10) 50yds
– Lat: 5 att 12yds; 2 rec (2) 7yds
–
– AK: 13 att 75yds; 10 rec (10) 47yds
– Lat: 10 att 27yds; 2 rec (3) 5yds
–
– AK: 11 att 54yds; 9 rec (9) 48yds
– Lat: 7 att 64yds, TD
–
– AK: 11 att 61yds; 4 rec (8) 23yds
– Lat: 4 att 2yds
–
– AK: 13 att 25yds; 4 rec (6) 18yds
– Lat: 7 att 69yds; 2 rec (3) 25yds
IND Run Game:
– NOR got run on by SF due to 3 things: Shanahan scheming, NOR missing LBs Anzalone, Klein, & Alonso and having Robertson get picked on all day, and SF execution with a strong line and special TE blocking by Kittle
– No individual running back has surpassed 100yds on ground vs NOR since Week 11, 2017
– RBs in pass game is way to attack this matchup, but Mack only has 12 rec for 76yds on the season
– Klein and Alonso still questionable (Anzalone IR)
– Davenport and Rankins both done for the year (this is SIGNIFICANT, but I would probably expect this problem to be on full display against Derrick Henry next week)
Bears at Packers, Week 15
CHI has been hit on the ground through heavy volume
– Jacobs: 26 att 123yds, 2 TD; 3 rec (4) 20yds
– Murray: 27 att 119yds, 2 TD; 5 rec (6) 31yds
– Howard: 19 att 82yds, TD
– Gurley: 25 att 97yds, TD; 3 rec (3) 36yds
– Scarbrough: 21 att 83yds
– Elliott: 19 att 81yds, 2 TD; 2 rec (5) 12yds
Aaron Jones:
– Cleared 20 touches for first time since Davante returned
– When he gets 20+ touches in 2019:
o (vs MIN) 23 att 116yds, TD; 4 rec (6) 34yds
o (vs PHI) 13 att 21yds, TD; 6 rec (7) 37yds
o (@ DAL) 19 att 107yds, 4 TD; 7 rec (8) 75yds
o (@ KC) 13 att 67yds; 7 rec (8) 159yds, 2 TD
o (vs WAS) 16 att 134yds, TD; 6 rec (7) 58yds
Aaron Rodgers 1st vs 2nd game vs CHI since 2015:
– 189yds, 3 TD; 35 rush yds 202yds, TD, INT; 33 rush yds
– 326yds, 3 TD; 7 rush yds 252yds; 19 rush yds
– 179yds, 4 TD; -1 rush yds DNP
– 286yds, 3 TD; 15 rush yds 274yds, INT; 25 rush yds
– 203yds, TD; 8 rush yds ?
– 5-0 in 1st game; 1-2 in 2nd game
CHI ranks 9th in total WR DK ppg allowed
#1 WRs vs CHI:
– Adams: 4 rec (6) 52yds
– Sanders: 11 rec (13) 98yds, TD
– McLaurin: 6 rec (8) 70yds, TD
– Diggs: 7 rec (7) 108yds
– Thomas: 9 rec (11) 131yds
– Allen: 7 rec (10) 53yds
– Jeffrey: 4 rec (8) 36yds
– Golladay: 3 rec (9) 57yds, TD
– Kupp: 3 rec (3) 53yds
– Tate: 3 rec (7) 33yds, TD
– Golladay: 4 rec (5) 158yds, TD
– Cooper: 6 rec (8) 83yds, TD
Davante Adams since return from injury:
– (LAC) 7 rec (11) 41yds
– (CAR) 7 rec (10) 118yds
– (SF) 7 rec (12) 43yds, TD
– (NYG) 6 rec (10) 64yds, 2 TD
– (WAS) 4 rec (6) 41yds
I shared the following about Trubisky last week before he played 19th ranked DAL, and now DAL is ranked 23rd after playing CHI. GB is currently ranked 18th in Pass Eff Def so one spot ahead of where DAL ranked before playing CHI last week. So GB is still a tougher matchup than the others on Trubisky’s list here, but not by much again.
Trubisky vs. the 5 teams he’s faced outside the top 20 in pass eff def:
– WAS: 25/31 for 231yds, 3 TD, INT
– DET: 16/23 for 173yds, 3 TD
– NYG: 25/41 for 278yds, 1 TD, 2 INT; 7 att 18yds, TD
– DET: 29/38 for 338yds, 3 TD, INT
– DAL: 23/31 for 244yds, 3 TD, INT; 10 att 63yds, TD
– 20.4, 19.7, 20.9, 27.9, 33.1
Allen Robinson in these 5 games:
– 6 rec (7) 60yds
– 6 rec (9) 86yds
– 6 rec (10) 131yds, TD
– 8 rec (12) 86yds, TD
– 5 rec (8) 48yds, 2 TD
Anthony Miller last 4:
– 6 rec (11) 54yds
– 6 rec (9) 77yds
– 9 rec (13) 140yds
– 3 rec (4) 42yds, TD
Jets at Ravens, Week 15
Lamar Jackson has the 2nd best passer rating in NFL vs blitz
Gregg Williams looooves to blitz
With healthy secondary and Peters addition, BAL has intercepted Dalton, Wilson, Brady, Finley, Watson, & Goff (x2) while allowing point totals of 17, 16, 20, 13, 7, 6, 17, 17 in these last 8 games
49ers at Saints, Week 14
Teams in top half of Off Eff that SF has faced:
– (14) ARI: 25pts, 26pts
– (4) SEA: 27pts
– (7) GB: 8pts
– (1) BAL: 20pts
NOR ranks 5th in Offensive Efficiency
Those QBs vs SF:
– Kyler: 241yds, 2 TD; 5 att 34yds
– Russ: 232yds, 1 TD, 1 INT; 6 att 53yds
– Kyler: 150yds, 2 TD; 8 att 67yds, TD
– Rodgers: 104yds, TD; 3 att 13yds
– Lamar: 105yds, TD; 16 att 101yds, TD
Drew Brees:
– 292.2 passing yds/g in 6 full games
– Touchdowns: 2, 3, 0, 3, 3, 1
– DK pts: 24.8, 28.9, 11.5, 21.1, 26.4, 11.3
Terron Armstead played sick W10 vs ATL and missed W13 vs ATL, Brees’s two worst games this year. He is a HUGE factor in this matchup vs SF’s top defensive line. Saints already playing with backup LG
Those RBs vs SF (plus CMC):
– CMC: 14 att 117yds, TD; 4 rec (5) 38yds
– Drake: 15 att 110yds, TD; 4 rec (4) 52yds
– Carson: 25 att 89yds, TD; 3 rec (4) 12yds
– Drake: 16 att 67yds; 6 rec (7) 13yds
– Williams: 11 att 45yds; 7 rec (8) 35yds
– Ingram: 15 att 59yds; 2 rec (2) 3yds
Alvin Kamara:
– Since return from injury:
o 4 att 24yds, 8 rec (10) 50yds
o 13 att 75yds, 10 rec (10) 47yds
o 11 att 54yds, 9 rec (9) 48yds
o 11 att 61yds, 4 rec (8) 23yds
o 15.4, 22.2, 19.2, 12.4
– Touchdowns have been missing for Kamara this year, partially due to Brees injury, his own ankle injury, penalties bringing plays back, and probably regression from his crazy TD rate to start career
– SF has only allowed 3 TDs to RBs all year, only behind NE at 2
Notable TEs vs SF:
– Howard: 4 rec (5) 32yds
– Olsen: 2 rec (2) 13yds
– Hollister: 8 rec (10) 62yds, TD
– Graham: 1 rec (2) 7yds
– Andrews: 3 rec (6) 50yds, TD
Jared Cook with Brees:
– 2 rec (3) 37yds
– Targeted on 2 deep routes on Brees’s 6 att
– 6 rec (10) 74yds
– 2 rec (2) 33yds, TD
– 6 rec (8) 99yds, TD (+deep catch called back)
– 3 rec (6) 85yds (dropped easy TD; just missed deep ball)
NOR QB D:
– Jameis and Kyle Allen had nice fantasy days vs NOR without Lattimore
– Ryan struggled with Lattimore back until he put up a bunch of late points
– Other than Deshaun Watson, the only strong QB fantasy performances (Russ, Trubisky, Winston, Ryan) against the Saints with Lattimore have all come via heavy 4th quarter volume in garbage time
– A Saints blowout probably on the extreme low end of possible scenarios
NOR RB D:
– NOR tied for 30th in RB receptions allowed
– Signed Teo back due to LB injuries (Anzalone, Klein, Alonso)
– Juszczyk has led RBs in pass game in 3 of his 7 games
Titans at Raiders, Week 14
TEs continue to perform well vs TEN as Doyle just hit season-highs
Darren Waller:
– Only behind Kittle & Andrews in air yards market share and WOPR
Multiple RBs have performed well vs TEN, but the best games have included heavy pass-game usage, something we have not seen by OAK with Jacobs all year
Ryan Tannehill since starting (Pass Eff Def rank):
– (22) 312yds, 2 TD, INT; 5 att 7yds
– (19) 193yds, 3 TD; 4 att -3yds
– (7) 331yds, 1 TD, 2 INT; 4 att 38yds, TD
– (6) 181yds, 2 TD; 3 att 37yds; 2pm
– (16) 259yds, 2 TD; 7 att 40yds, 2 TD
– (10) 182yds, 2 TD, 4 att 5yds
OAK D ranks 28th in Pass Eff Def
Looking at a more improbable angle:
– Turnovers w/ Tanny: 1 (half), 1, 1, 3, 1, 2, 2
– Tanny also had 3 more fumbles recovered
– Sacks allowed: 4 (half), 2, 3, 4, 4, 1, 6
OAK D:
– Turnovers forced: 0, 1, 0, 2, 2, 0, 0, 2, 3, 2, 1, 0
– Team QBs without TOs: Flacco, Cousins, Rodgers, Watson, Mahomes
– 24th in sacks per game, but averaging 1 more sack per game at Home (6th in Home sacks per game)
Ravens at Bills, Week 14
BUF Run D:
– 22nd in Rush Eff Def
– 31st in Explosive Run Rate
BAL ranks #1 in Explosive Run Rate (and #1 in overall explosive play rate)
Colts at Buccaneers, Week 14
IND D designed to limit big plays and WR production, yet it has struggled more this year with injuries and execution
– IND D ranks 25th in Explosive Pass rate allowed to WRs
Here are WRs to produce vs IND in 2019:
– Keenan: 8 rec (10) 123yds, TD
– Julio: 8 rec (9) 128yds, TD
– Tyrell: 3 rec (7) 36yds, TD
– Pringle: 6 rec (9) 103yds, TD
– Hopkins: 9 rec (12) 106yds, TD
– Stills: 4 rec (5) 105yds
– Chark: 8 rec (15) 104yds, 2 TD
– Fuller: 7 rec (11) 140yds
– Hopkins: 6 rec (8) 94yds, 2 TD
Chris Godwin:
– After an early season explosion, only has 1 game in the last 6 that you wanted, and considering his price since then, only 1 score that didn’t really set back your roster scoring pace
– His aDOT of 10.5 compared to Evans’s 15.2 is better suited to this matchup’s desire to limit plays downfield
Mike Evans:
– Price has been boosted by his early season production as well, even as he’s only had 4 catches in 4 straight games and between 50 and 82yds
– #2 WR on Hermsmeyer’s Buy-Low model for Week 14, indicating his usage is projecting a big game
Zach Pascal:
– Priced up after his 7 rec (10) 109yds performance, but gets the softest WR matchup in football vs TB
– Landed on Hermsmeyer’s Buy-Low Model for Week 14
Jack Doyle:
– Basically just absorbed all of Ebron’s usage in first game without Ebron, receiving a season high 11 targets (6 rec 73yds, TD)
– TB is the 29th ranked TE Def in DK ppg allowed
Jacoby Brissett:
– The only 3 times you wanted Brissett on your roster came against the #30, #28, #27 defenses in QB DK ppg allowed
– TB Def ranks 31st in QB DK ppg allowed
– No Hilton hurts him, but Hilton only played 52% and 0% of the snaps in the first 2 of those games due to injury
Redskins at Packers, Week 14
WAS ranks 26th in Pass Eff Def
Rodgers vs bottom-10 Pass Eff Def in 2019:
– (DET) 283yds, 2 TD, INT; 3 att 10yds
– (OAK) 429yds, 5 TD; 2 att 6yds, TD
– (NYG) 243yds, 4 TD; 3 att 24yds
– 19.3, 46.8, 28.1
Rodgers vs Manusky WAS D in 2018:
– 27/44 for 265yds, 2 TD; 2 att 13yds; 4 sacks
GB RB Def:
– 28th in RB DK ppg allowed
– 31st in RB rush TDs allowed (13)
– 28th in Rush Eff Def
– 12th in Explosive Rush Def
Derrius Guice since return from injury (Rush Eff D rank)
– (2nd) 7 att 24yds; 1 rec (2) 45yds, TD (31% snaps)
– (18th) 10 att 32yds; 1 rec (2) 6yds (41% snaps)
– (32nd) 10 att 129yds, 2 TD; 2 rec (3) 8yds (30% snaps)
Guice, Peterson, Thompson splitting snaps doesn’t help for fantasy
Bengals at Browns, Week 14
CIN RB D:
– 24th in Rush Eff Def
– 30th in Explosive Rush Def
– 31st in RB Pass Eff Def
As one of the most explosive backs in football, Chubb has the ability to take advantage of this Bengals run defense in the same way several others have this year
Nick Chubb:
– 16 att is his lowest total of the year!
– 20+ att in every game since W5 before last week (PIT)
– 24, 28, 24, 18 touches with Kareem Hunt
– Rush Eff DEF faced: 4, 2, 3, 25, 19, 16, 13, 6, 27, 8, 29, 8
– In 25, 27, 29 games:
o 20 att 165yds, 3 TD; 3 rec (4) 18yds
o 20 att 116yds; 2 rec (4) 5yds
o 21 att 106yds, TD; 3 rec (3) 58yds
Chubb vs CIN in 2018:
– 28 att 84yds, TD; 3 rec (3) 44yds, TD
– 19 att 112yds; 2 rec (3) 3yds
Kareem Hunt in 2019:
– 4 att 30yds; 7 rec (9) 44yds
– 6 att 12yds; 6 rec (8) 46yds
– 8 att 37yds, TD; 2 rec (3) 9yds
– 7 att 46yds; 5 rec (5) 19yds, TD
– Out-snapped Chubb vs PIT (trailed all 2nd half)
Kareem Hunt vs CIN in 2018:
– 15 att 86yds, TD; 5 rec (6) 55yds, 2 TD
Panthers at Falcons, Week 14
CAR has the worst run defense in the league:
– 30.7 DK ppg to RBs (31st)
– 19 rush TDs to RBs (32nd by 6 TDs!)
– 3 rec TDs to RBs
– 118.25 rush yd/g to RBs (30th)
– 26.67 rec yd/g to RBs (2nd)
ATL has faced a brutal schedule of run defenses:
– IND (#23) is best matchup Freeman has had (16 att 88yds while trailing all game)
– Freeman’s others in rank: 5, 7, 4, 10, 15, 3, 16, 9, 9
ATL vs CAR in W11 without Freeman
– Brian Hill: 15 att 30yds; 1 rec (3) 8yds
– Ollison: 4 att 11yds, TD
– Barner: 2 att 15yds
Offensive line has been really rough
After absolutely destroying CAR for 21 rec (26) 478yds, 2 TD in back to back games, Julio vs Ron Rivera’s CAR D has gone:
– 4 rec (7) 60yds
– 6 rec (12) 118yds
– 5 rec (11) 80yds
– 5 rec (9) 64yds
– 4 rec (5) 28yds, TD
– 6 rec (8) 91yds
Calvin Ridley vs CAR career:
– 4 rec (5) 64yds, TD
– 3 rec (5) 90yds, TD
– 8 rec (8) 143yds, TD (no Hooper)
DJ Moore last 5:
– 7 rec (10) 101yds (TEN)
– 9 rec (11) 120yds (GB)
– 8 rec (15) 95yds (ATL)
– 6 rec (9) 126yds, 2 TD (NOR)
– 6 rec (12) 75yds, TD (WAS)
Cowboys at Bears, Week 14
CHI has been hit on the ground through heavy volume
– Jacobs: 26 att 123yds, 2 TD; 3 rec (4) 20yds
– Murray: 27 att 119yds, 2 TD; 5 rec (6) 31yds
– Howard: 19 att 82yds, TD
– Gurley: 25 att 97yds, TD; 3 rec (3) 36yds
– Scarbrough: 21 att 83yds
Not the Zeke volume of past, but touches still:
– 15, 25, 22, 25, 15, 34, 29, 23, 23, 19, 25, 22
– Lowest snaps since W4: 80% in blowout win (PHI)
– Lowest touches: 15 in blowout loss (GB)
CHI ranks 7th in total WR DK ppg allowed
#1 WRs vs CHI:
– Adams: 4 rec (6) 52yds
– Sanders: 11 rec (13) 98yds, TD
– McLaurin: 6 rec (8) 70yds, TD
– Diggs: 7 rec (7) 108yds
– Thomas: 9 rec (11) 131yds
– Allen: 7 rec (10) 53yds
– Jeffrey: 4 rec (8) 36yds
– Golladay: 3 rec (9) 57yds, TD
– Kupp: 3 rec (3) 53yds
– Tate: 3 rec (7) 33yds, TD
– Golladay: 4 rec (5) 158yds, TD
Amari Cooper is Questionable
Gallup target totals as the #2 all year:
– 7, 8, 14, 7, 4, 6, 10, 13, 6, 6
Keenum, Teddy, Driskel, Jones, Blough managed useful fantasy days vs CHI
Dak’s 3 worst games correlate with Cooper:
– NOR: Dak (8.6), Cooper (9.8)
– NYJ: Dak (18.2), Cooper left injured (3 snaps)
– NE: Dak (7.9), Cooper (0.0)
Dak has been between 21.6 and 36.4 in the 9 other games
Trubisky vs. the 4 teams he’s faced outside the top 20 in pass eff def:
– WAS: 25/31 for 231yds, 3 TD, INT
– DET: 16/23 for 173yds, 3 TD
– NYG: 25/41 for 278yds, 1 TD, 2 INT; 7 att 18yds, TD
– DET: 29/38 for 338yds, 3 TD, INT
– 20.4, 19.7, 20.9, 27.9
DAL ranks 19th in Pass Eff D (so still better than those other 4 but not by a lot)
Only 2 passers have cleared 240yds vs DAL all year
RB receiving vs DAL:
– Gallman: 3 rec (3) 24yds
– Thompson: 5 rec (8) 48yds
– Drake: 3 rec (6) 34yds
– Kamara: 3 rec (3) 20yds
– Jones: 7 rec (8) 75yds
– Ty-Mont: 3 rec (3) 17yds
– Sanders: 3 rec (3) 11yds
– Saquon: 6 rec (8) 67yds
– Dalvin: 7 rec (7) 86yds
– McKissic: 3 rec (4) 40yds
– Burkhead: 2 rec (5) 14yds
– Singletary: 3 rec (4) 38yds, TD
Cohen last 4:
– 3 att 14yds; 4 rec (4) 23yds, TD
– 9 att 39yds; 5 rec (6) 35yds, TD
– 6 att 25yds; 7 rec (9) 29yds
– 3 att 9yds; 4 rec (4) 26yds
Beasley & Edelman produced vs DAL from slot last 2 weeks
Anthony Miller last 3 weeks:
– 6 rec (11) 54yds
– 6 rec (9) 77yds
– 9 rec (13) 140yds
Raiders at Chiefs, Week 13
Tyreek Hill vs Guenther’s OAK D:
– 1 rec (6) 13yds; 2 att 37yds
– 5 rec (7) 101yds, TD; 1 att 15yds, TD
Tyreek Hill since return from shoulder injury:
– 5 rec (10) 82yds, 2 TD
– 3 rec (5) 74yds, TD
– 6 rec (9) 76yds; 1 att 5yds
– 6 rec (9) 140yds, TD; 1 att 5yds
– 11 rec (19) 157yds, TD; 1 att 3yds
– Left game with hamstring injury
Raybon’s Injury Study (2008-2015):
– 204 hamstring designations: -8.0% ppr pts/g
– 109 (Probable): -3.0%
– 95 (Questionable): -13.8%
OAK Pass D has been making QBs happy all year:
– Mahomes: 443yds, 4 TD
– Brissett: 265yds, 3 TD, INT
– Daniel: 231yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
– Rodgers: 429yds, 5 TD, rush TD
– Watson: 279yds, 3 TD, 46 rush yds
– Stafford: 406yds, 3 TD, INT
– Rivers: 207yds, 2 TD, 3 INT
– Darnold: 315yds, 2 TD, rush TD
Mahomes vs Guenther’s OAK D:
– 295yds, 4 TD; 9 att 52yds
– 281yds, 2 TD, INT
– 443yds, 4 TD (no Hill)
Kelce vs Guenther’s OAK D:
– 12 rec (13) 168yds, 2 TD
– 5 rec (9) 62yds
– 7 rec (9) 107yds, TD
Travis Kelce:
– Targets: 8, 9, 8, 8, 10, 6, 8, 8, 9, 7, 10
– Mahomes returns: (7 rec 75yds, TD) & (7 rec 92yds, TD)
Chargers at Broncos, Week 13
LAC RB D:
– 26th in RB DK ppg allowed
– 26th in Rush Eff Def
– 10th in Explosive Rush D
Philip Lindsay:
– Last 3: Out-carried Freeman 38 to 15
– 2 games vs LAC:
o 11 att 79yds, 2 TD; 4 rec (5) 27yds
o 15 att 114yds, TD; 4 rec (4) 33yds
Rams at Cardinals, Week 13
ARI vs QBs:
– 32nd in DK ppg allowed to QBs (27.8)
– 32nd in pass ypg allowed
– 29 pass TDs allowed (26 next closest)
Jared Goff:
– As bad as he’s been (19 DK pts last 3wks combined), he does has 3 big games (27.7, 25.0, 25.9)
– Goff has been super matchup-dependent, and the matchup doesn’t get better than this
Pass-catchers in Goff’s 3 big games:
Kupp:
– 9 rec (15) 121yds, TD
– 6 rec (8) 50yds
– 7 rec (10) 220yds, TD
Woods:
– 13 rec (15) 164yds
– 5 rec (7) 80yds
– 2 rec (2) 36yds
Cooks:
– 6 rec (9) 71yds
– 4 rec (7) 59yds
– Concussion
Everett:
– 5 rec (8) 44yds, TD
– 4 rec (10) 50yds, TD
– 2 rec (3) 15yds
49ers at Ravens, Week 13
Only teams in top 20 of OFF EFF that SF has faced:
– (9) ARI: 25pts, 26pts
– (4) SEA: 27pts
– (5) GB: 8pts
BAL ranks 3rd in Offensive Efficiency
Those 3 QBs vs SF:
– Kyler: 241yds, 2 TD; 5 att 34yds
– Russ: 232yds, 1 TD, 1 INT; 6 att 53yds
– Kyler: 150yds, 2 TD; 8 att 67yds, TD
– Rodgers: 104yds, TD; 3 att 13yds
Lamar Jackson:
– 220.6 passing yds/g
– 79.6 rushing yds/g (87 after W1)
– 24 pass TDs, 6 rush TDs
– 6/11 games over 30 DK pts
Those RBs vs SF (plus CMC):
– CMC: 14 att 117yds, TD; 4 rec (5) 38yds
– Drake: 15 att 110yds, TD; 4 rec (4) 52yds
– Carson: 25 att 89yds, TD; 3 rec (4) 12yds
– Drake: 16 att 67yds; 6 rec (7) 13yds
– Williams: 11 att 45yds; 7 rec (8) 35yds
Mark Ingram:
– 12 att in every game but one (9 att)
– Only more than 16 att once (19 att)
– Below 52% of snaps since Week 6
– 5 games you wanted (25.7, 38.5, 18.4, 23.5, 27.8), and 6 games that put you on pace to underperform
BAL vs TEs:
– Basically just a schedule of min-priced TEs plus Kelce and McDonald (with Rudolph/Hodges)
– Kelce: 7 rec (8) 89yds
– McDonald: 3 rec (3) 34yds
– BAL CBs much better than SF WRs, so this is where SF has advantage with Kittle
George Kittle:
– 2 low target games vs Anarumo’s D and puddle game
– 6+ targets in all others: 10, 8, 8, 8, 7, 8, 6
– Last 5 non-puddle games:
o 70+ yds, 6+ rec, 3 TDs
o 20.8, 21.3, 14.6, 19.9, 27.9
Buccaneers at Jaguars, Week 13
TB last in ppg allowed to WRs: 6.4/g more than the next closest team!
TB last in ypg and TDs allowed to WRs
“Receivers” you could’ve played together vs TB:
– Samuel/Moore/Olsen: 14.3 – 17.9 – 20 (Showdown)
– Shepard/Engram: 28.1 – 26.3
– Woods/Kupp/Everett: 32.4 – 29.9 – 15.4
– Thomas/Cook: 44.2 – 14.1
– Samuel/Moore: 23.8 – 15.6
– Lockett/Metcalf/Hollister: 43.2 – 28 – 19.7
– Kirk/Fitzgerald: 40.8 – 15.1
– Thomas/Cook: 28.4 – 11.3
– Ridley/Gage: 20.5 – 15.6
JAC receivers you could’ve played:
– (KC) Chark/Conley/Dede: 27.6 – 21.7 – 14.2
– (HOU) Chark: 18.5
– (TEN) Chark: 17.6
– (CAR) Chark/Dede: 39.4 – 15.2
– (CIN) Dede: 20.7
– (NYJ) Chark/Conley: 19.9 – 23.3
– (IND) Chark: 33.4
TB 31st in ppg allowed to QBs
TB 31st in ypg and TDs allowed to QBs
Nick Foles:
– 75yds, TD on just 11 snaps
– 296yds, 2 TD, INT
– 272yds; 20 rush yds
– 2018 vs Bucs: 334yds, TD
JAC Rush Def:
– Henry, Williams, Mack, Hyde have all gone 100+ last 3 weeks
– 30th in Rush Eff Def
– JAC is only the second rush D below 19th in efficiency that TB has faced (CAR 2x)
Ronald Jones with double-digit touches 2019:
– (SF) 13 att 75yds; 1 rec (1) 18yds
– (NYG) 14 att 80yds; 1 rec (1) 41yds
– (LAR) 19 att 70yds, TD; 1 rec (1) 12yds
– (NOR) 9 att 35yds; 2 rec (3) 21yds
– (TEN) 11 att 35yds; 1 rec (3) 17yds
– (SEA) 18 att 67yds, TD; 2 rec (2) 15yds
– (ARI) 11 att 29yds, TD; 8 rec (8) 77yds
– (ATL) 12 att 51yds, TD; 3 rec (3) 16yds
– 10.3, 13.1, 15.2, 7.6, 6.2, 16.2, 23.6, 15.7
Notable WR performances vs JAC:
– Watkins: 9 rec (11) 198yds, 3 TD
– Hopkins: 5 rec (8) 40yds
– Humphries: 6 rec (9) 93yds
– Sanders: 5 rec (9) 104yds
– Sutton: 6 rec (9) 62yds, 2 TD
– Moore: 6 rec (8) 91yds
– Thomas: 8 rec (12) 89yds (overthrown on open TD)
– Erickson: 8 rec (14) 137yds
– Boyd: 5 rec (14) 55yds
– Crowder: 3 rec (5) 24yds
– Hopkins: 8 rec (11) 48yds, TD
– Johnson: 4 rec (4) 38yds, TD
– AJ Brown: 4 rec (5) 135yds, TD
Godwin:
– Likely sees less AJ Bouye
– Targets have dropped since a midseason spike, but still has 8, 9, 12, 6, 8 in last 5 weeks
Redskins at Panthers, Week 13
Christian McCaffrey
– Zeke, Gallman, Michel, Cook, Singletary all excelled vs WAS
– 29+ DK pts in 8/10 games!
– 2 games below (7.3, 21.7) both vs TB (2nd in RB pts allowed)
– 3 games over 40 DK pts
CAR has one of the worst run defenses and has allowed the most RB TDs, but you have to believe Haskins can keep drives alive to trust Peterson or Guice to produce
Packers at Giants, Week 13
GB RB Def:
– 30th in RB DK ppg allowed
– 29th in RB TDs allowed (13 rush, 1 rec)
– 28th in Rush Eff Def
– 12th in Explosive Rush Def
Saquon Barkley:
– Only other game vs bottom-12 rush eff D:
o (BUF) 18 att 107yds, TD, 3 rec (7) 28yds
– Only other game in top-10 RB matchup:
o (DET) 19 att 64yds, 8 rec (10) 79yds, TD
NYG WR Def:
– 31st in WR DK ppg allowed
– T-28th in WR TDs allowed
– 29th in WR yards allowed
Davante Adams since return from injury:
– (LAC) 7 rec (11) 41yds
– (CAR) 7 rec (10) 118yds
– (SF) 7 rec (12) 43yds, TD
Eagles at Dolphins, Week 13
MIA Rush Def:
– 29th in Rush Eff Def
– 24th in Explosive Rush Def
– 27th in RB DK ppg allowed
– 32nd in rush yds allowed to RBs
– 6 100+ yd rushers in 11 games
Miles Sanders with double-digit touches (Rush Eff D rank)
– (9th) 11 att 25yds; 1 rec (2) 2yds
– (11th) 10 att 28yds; 3 rec (4) 9yds
– (8th) 13 att 53yds; 2 rec (4) 73yds
– (12th) 11 att 72yds
– (2nd) 9 att 15yds; 4 rec (5) 49yds
– (4th) 10 att 42yds; 3 rec (3) 31yds
– (15th) 11 att 38yds; 2 rec (4) 9yds
– (16th) 12 att 63yds; 3 rec (5) 23yds
Other notable games:
– (5th) 3 att 6yds; 3 rec (3) 86yds, TD
– (31st) 3 att 74yds, TD; 3 rec (3) 44yds, 2pm
Jordan Howard:
– Last 2 before injury:
o 23 att 96yds, TD; 1 rec (2) 15yds
o 19 att 82yds, TD; 1 rec (1) 1yd
– Other notable:
o 11 att 37yds, TD
o 15 att 87yds, 2 TD; 3 rec (4) 28yds, TD
o 13 att 62yds, TD
Zach Ertz:
– Target boost amidst PHI WR injuries
– Last 3:
o 9 rec (11) 103yds, TD
o 9 rec (11) 94yds
o 12 rec (14) 91yds, TD
Dallas Goedert:
– Also benefiting from PHI WR injuries
– Targets since W6: 8, 4, 5, 5, 6, 8
– Used a lot in red zone
Since getting Jalen Mills and Ronald Darby back:
– Cooper: 5 rec (5) 106yds (only Mills)
– Gallup: 3 rec (4) 34yds (only Mills)
– J Brown: 5 rec (8) 54yds
– Beasley: 3 rec (7) 41yds, TD
– Robinson: 1 rec (5) 6yds
– Gabriel: 3 rec (3) 69yds
– Edelman: 5 rec (10) 53yds
– Dorsett: 3 rec (5) 33yds, TD (Trick play)
– Lockett: 1 rec (2) 38yds
– Metcalf: 3 rec (6) 35yds
PHI isn’t the matchup it was early in year
Titans at Colts, Week 13
Derrick Henry last 5 vs IND:
– (W) 19 att 131yds, TD; 1 rec (1) 14yds
– (W) 13 att 79yds, 0 TD; 1 rec (2) 10yds
– (L) 9 att 46yds
– (L) 16 att 93yds, 0 TD; 1 rec (1) 13yds
– (L) 15 att 82yds, TD; 2 rec (3) 12yds
2019 IND RB Def:
– 6th in DK ppg allowed to RBs
– 7th in ypg allowed to RBs
– Only 5 TDs allowed to RBs (3 rush, 2 rec)
Last 5 QBs vs TEN:
– Rivers: 329yds, 2 TD
– Winston: 301yds, 2 TD, 2 INT; 8 att 53yds
– K Allen: 232yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
– Mahomes: 446yds, 3 TD
– Foles: 272yds
Jacoby Brissett:
– vs TEN: 146yds, 3 TD, INT; 7 att 25yds
– 6/10 games above 16 DK pts:
o 16.1, 16.5, 18.3, 23.5, 23.8, 31.6
Notable TEs vs TEN:
– Njoku: 4 rec (6) 37yds, TD
– Ebron: 3 rec (4) 25yds, TD
– O’Shag: 2 rec (3) 18yds, TD
– Hooper: 9 rec (11) 130yds
– Henry: 6 rec (8) 97yds
– Olsen: 3 rec (5) 40yds
– Kelce: 7 rec (7) 75yds, TD
Doyle/Ebron last 5 games:
– Doyle:
o 4 rec (5) 61yds
o 3 rec (4) 22yds, TD
o 3 rec (4) 44yds, TD
o 0 rec
o 3 rec (4) 28yds
– Ebron:
o 3 rec (4) 26yds
o 2 rec (2) 16yds
o 5 rec (12) 56yds
o 4 rec (4) 27yds
o 4 rec (5) 44yds
With Ebron on IR, Doyle usage likely increases
Jets at Bengals, Week 13
Darnold vs bottom-10 Pass Eff Def in 2019:
– (MIA) 260yds, TD, INT
– (NYG) 230yds, TD; 3 att 25yds, TD
– (WAS) 293yds, 4 TD, INT
– (OAK) 315yds, 2 TD; 4 att 16yds, TD
– These also happen to be his last 4 games
CIN Pass D:
– 31st in Pass Eff Def
– Facing least amount of pass att in NFL
– 29th in DK ppg allowed to QBs
NYJ WR D:
– 30th in WR DK ppg allowed
– T-31st in WR TDs allowed
– Bottom 10 in Rec and Yds allowed to WRs
Tyler Boyd:
– Between 6-14 targets every week except 1
– Gets Dalton back
Saints at Falcons, Week 13
Michael Thomas 1st vs 2nd game vs team that season:
CAR:
– (’16) 5 rec (5) 78yds, TD 5 rec (5) 68yds
– (’17) 7 rec (8) 87yds, TD 5 rec (9) 70yds, TD 8 rec (9) 131yds
ATL:
– (’16) 7 rec (11) 71yds, TD 10 rec (14) 156yds, TD
– (’17) 10 rec (14) 117yds, TD 4 rec (5) 66yds
– (’18) 10 rec (10) 129yds 4 rec (6) 38yds
– (’19) 13 rec (14) 152yds
TB:
– (’17) 8 rec (11) 65yds 6 rec (8) 94yds
– (’18) 16 rec (17) 180yds, TD 11 rec (13) 98yds
– (’19) 11 rec (13) 182yds, 2 TD 8 rec (10) 114yds, TD
MIN:
– (’17) 5 rec (8) 45yds 7 rec (13) 85yds, 2 TD
PHI:
– (’18) 4 rec (4) 92yds, TD 12 rec (16) 171yds, TD
LAR:
– (’18) 12 rec (15) 211yds, TD 4 rec (7) 36yds
To be honest, I don’t know how much is really here since some of this can be looked at from a game-script perspective. Thomas’s numbers have dropped off significantly vs ATL last 2 years, but the Saints also went from trailing a lot in first game to completely controlling the 2nd game. Atlanta offense at home (plus potentially no Lattimore) makes it hard to believe the Saints won’t continue to pepper Thomas with targets all game. He hasn’t dropped below 10 targets since W4 vs DAL with Teddy. He’s also on just another level this year.
Alvin Kamara:
– Only 1 of 4 full games vs ATL has produced a strong score (No Ingram, 43-37 OT shootout)
– This is a better ATL D on ground than any previous matchup
– 2019 ATL: #11 Rush Eff D, #16 RB Pass Eff D, #11 Explosive Rush D
– No Armstead could mean even more emphasis on quick hitters to Kamara, though this might be more important vs ferocious SF pass rush next week than ATL spotty one this week
– He’s from ATL playing in front of family for whatever that’s worth to you
ATL TE D (2019):
– Ertz: 8 rec (16) 72yds
– Colts trio: 9 rec (10) 118yds
– Walker: 1 rec (2) 4yds
– Fells: 2 rec (2) 20yds, 2 TD
– Maxx: 3 rec (3) 34yds, TD
– Everett: 4 rec (10) 50yds, TD
– Hollister: 2 rec (2) 18yds
– Cook: 6 rec (10) 74yds
– Olsen: 5 rec (5) 57yds
– Howard: 1 rec (2) 10yds
NOR TEs vs ATL (2018):
– Watson: 5 rec (6) 71yds
– Arnold: 4 rec (6) 45yds, TD
Jared Cook with Brees:
– 2 rec (3) 37yds
– Targeted on 2 deep routes on Brees’s 6 att
– 6 rec (10) 74yds
– 2 rec (2) 33yds, TD
– 6 rec (8) 99yds, TD (deep catch called back on questionable OPI and 2 other end zone targets as well)
Drew Brees:
– Probably not here to stay, but Brees attacked deep vs CAR: Sideline completions to Ginn and Thomas, INC to Cook in endzone, Ginn drop on perfect throw, underthrow to Ginn, INT to Trequan, miscommunication on throw to open Ginn
– Brees fell behind Brady in the race to pass Peyton for all-time TDs while out with thumb injury, but I would believe it if you told me Payton tries to help Brees get there first
– Will be without Armstead, and Peat, who usually moves to LT when he’s out, is also out. So kind of 3rd-string LT and backup LG with a, albeit already good, rookie center
Julio/Ridley vs NOR since 2017:
– 5 rec (11) 98yds
– 7 rec (11) 149yds
– 5 rec (6) 96yds – 7 rec (8) 146yds, 3 TD
– 11 rec (14) 147yds – 8 rec (13) 93yds, TD
– 3 rec (9) 79yds – 3 rec (5) 28yds, 1 att 19yds
Ridley last 2 with no Hooper:
– 8 rec (8) 143yds, TD
– 6 rec (14) 85yds, TD; 1 att 15yds
Matt Ryan vs NOR since 2017
– 221yds, 1 TD, 3 INT, 1 sack
– 288yds, 1 TD, 1 INT; 5 sacks
– 374yds, 5 TD, 0 INT; 3 sacks
– 377yds, 2 TD, 1 INT; 6 sacks
– 182yds, 2 TD, 1 INT; 1 sack
Matt Ryan (2019):
– 300+ yds in 7 of 10 games
– 2+ TDs in 6 of 10 games
– 10 INTs
– 29 sacks
– Still maybe dealing with sprained ankle from Week 7
Bills at Cowboys, Week 13
QB rushing vs DAL:
– Jones: 6 att 54yds
– Driskel: 8 att 51yds, TD
Josh Allen rushing:
– 35.2 yds/g
– 7 rush TDs
– 4 att is lowest of year
– 10 att is highest of year (twice)
DAL has only allowed 2 passers to clear 240yds all year (Eli/Darnold)
– Josh Allen season-high in pass yds is just 266yds
– DAL ranks 19th in Pass Eff Def
RB receiving vs DAL:
– Gallman: 3 rec (3) 24yds
– Thompson: 5 rec (8) 48yds
– Drake: 3 rec (6) 34yds
– Kamara: 3 rec (3) 20yds
– Jones: 7 rec (8) 75yds
– Ty-Mont: 3 rec (3) 17yds
– Sanders: 3 rec (3) 11yds
– Saquon: 6 rec (8) 67yds
– Dalvin: 7 rec (7) 86yds
– McKissic: 3 rec (4) 40yds
– Burkhead: 2 rec (5) 14yds
Devin Singletary:
– 3 best receiving games:
o 5 rec (6) 28yds
o 4 rec (6) 30yds, TD
o 3 rec (4) 45yds
– Since coming back from injury:
o 3 att 19yds; 4 rec (6) 30yds, TD; (68% snaps)
o 20 att 95yds, TD; 3 rec (4) 45yds (66%)
o 8 att 42yds; 3 rec (6) 8yds (68%)
o 15 att 75yds; 1 rec (1) 4yds (73%)
o 21 att 106yds; 1 rec (2) 8yds (71%)
DAL vs #1 WRs:
– Shepard: 6 rec (7) 42yds
– McLaurin: 5 rec (9) 62yds, TD
– Williams: 4 rec (12) 68yds
– Thomas: 9 rec (9) 95yds
– MVS: 1 rec (4) 18yds
– Anderson: 5 rec (8) 125yds, TD; (92 on one play)
– Alshon: 2 rec (5) 38yds
– Tate: 6 rec (6) 42yds; 1 att 16yds
– Diggs: 3 rec (6) 49yds
– Golladay: 1 rec (5) 34yds
– Edelman: 8 rec (12) 93yds
Not only did most of these #1’s struggle, but the only other WRs to even post usable scores vs DAL were:
– Crowder: 6 rec (9) 98yds
– M Jones: 4 rec (5) 43yds, 2 TD; 1 att -4yds
John Brown:
– 50+ yards in 10/11, but only 3 big weeks (NYJ, MIA 2x)
BUF QB D:
– #2 in DK ppg allowed (12.4)
– Pass Off Eff Sched: 32, 27, 30, 14, 16, 28, 17, 31, 21, 28, 26
– DAL is ranked #3 in Pass Eff Off
– Dak is the best 2019 QB BUF has faced
Dak vs top-half pass eff def:
– (NOR) 223 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT; 1 att 7yds
– (GB) 463 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT; 4 att 27yds
– (PHI) 239yds, 1 TD, 1 INT; 5 att 30yds, TD
– (MIN) 397yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
– (NE) 212yds, 0 TD, INT; 1 att 4yds
Ezekiel Elliott:
– BUF: #27 in Rush Eff Def, #31 in Explosive Rush D
– Only games vs teams outside top 20 in rush eff def:
o (WAS) 23 att 111yds, TD; 2 rec (2) 9yds
o (MIA) 19 att 125yds; 2 rec (3) 14yds
o (GB) 12 att 62yds, TD; 2 rec (3) 29yds
Bears at Lions, Week 13
DET Def has completely fallen apart since a respectable start
QBs Week 5 on:
– Rodgers: 283yds, 2 TD
– Cousins: 337yds, 4 TD
– Jones: 322yds, 4 TD
– Carr: 289yds, 2 TD
– Trubisky: 173yds, 3 TD
– Prescott: 444yds, 3 TD
– Haskins: 156yds, INT
Trubisky has obviously been bad, but here are his numbers vs. the only 3 teams he’s faced outside the top 20 in pass eff def:
– WAS: 25/31 for 231yds, 3 TD, INT
– DET: 16/23 for 173yds, 3 TD
– NYG: 25/41 for 278yds, 1 TD, 2 INT; 7 att 18yds, TD
– 20.4, 19.7, 20.9
DET ranks 24th in pass efficiency def
Trubisky’s only game vs DET last year:
– 23/30 for 355yds, 3 TD; 3 att 18yds, TD
Montgomery last 5 (Rush Eff D Rank):
– (#26) 27 att 135yds, TD; 4 rec (5) 12yds
– (#7) 14 att 40yds, 2 TD; 3 rec (4) 36yds
– (#18) 17 att 60yds
– (#3) 14 att 31yds; 1 rec (3) 19yds
– (#14) 13 att 22yds; 2 rec (3) 9yds
Cohen last 3:
– 3 att 14yds; 4 rec (4) 23yds, TD
– 9 att 39yds; 5 rec (6) 35yds, TD
– 6 att 25yds; 7 rec (9) 29yds
DET RB D:
– 18th in Rush Eff Def
– 8th in Explosive Rush Def
– 32nd in Explosive passes to RBs
– RBs averaging 5.4 rec/g
– DJ: 82 rush yds, 55 rec yds, TD
– Ekeler: 66 rush yds, 67 rec yds, TD
– Sanders: 53 rush yds, 73 rec yds
– McCoy: 56 rush yds, 33 rec yds, TD
– Williams: 104 rush yds, 32 rec yds, TD
– Cook: 142 rush yds, 7 rec yds, 2 TD
– Saquon: 64 rush yds, 79 rec yds, TD
– Jacobs: 120 rush yds, 0 rec yds, 2 TD
– Montgomery: 60 rush yds, 0 rec yds
– Cohen: 14 rush yds, 23 rec yds, TD
– Elliot: 45 rush yds, 28 rec yds, 2 TD
– Pollard: 12 rush yds, 44 rec yds, TD
– Peterson: 27 rush yds, 22 rec yds
CHI has been hit hard on the ground by heavy volume from Jacobs, Murray, Howard, and Gurley, but unless you think it’s Bo, DET doesn’t have a RB to fit that mold
– Scarbrough went for 18 att 98yds last week vs WAS
CHI ranks 4th in WR DK ppg allowed
Buccaneers at Falcons, Week 12
TB last in ppg allowed to WRs: 6.3 more than the next closest team!
TB last in ypg and TDs allowed to WRs
Julio vs TB at home in career:
– 4 rec (5) 72yds, 2 TD
– 3 rec (6) 56yds
– 9 rec (11) 161yds, 2 TD
– 12 rec (13) 162yds, TD
– 4 rec (8) 66yds, TD
– 12 rec (15) 253yds, 2 TD
– 10 rec (14) 144yds
No Sanu anymore, no Hooper, no Freeman
7+ targets in every game this year
Last 5: 108, 93, 152, 79, 91
“Receivers” you could’ve played together vs TB:
– Samuel/Moore/Olsen: 14.3 – 17.9 – 20 (Showdown)
– Shepard/Engram: 28.1 – 26.3
– Woods/Kupp/Everett: 32.4 – 29.9 – 15.4
– Thomas/Ginn/Cook: 44.2 – 11.6 – 14.1
– Samuel/Moore: 23.8 – 15.6
– Lockett/Metcalf/Hollister: 43.2 – 28 – 19.7
– Kirk/Fitzgerald: 40.8 – 15.1
– Thomas/Cook: 28.4 – 11.3
Outside of IND, Ridley has at least 6 “touches” in every game
Last week with no Hooper: 8 rec (8) 143yds, TD
Panthers at Saints, Week 12
Kamara vs CAR:
2017 (5th in Rush Def DVOA):
– 2 att 37yds, TD; 3 rec (5) 5yds (17 snaps)
– 9 att 60yds, 2 TD; 5 rec (6) 66yds
– 10 att 23yds, TD; 1 rec (3) 10yds
2018 (18th in Rush Def DVOA):
– 14 att 67yds, TD; 7 rec (9) 36yds
2019 CAR currently ranks 32nd in Rush Def DVOA
– Also allowed 3 RB rec TDs (DJ, Coleman, Henry)
– 15 RB rush TD allowed (11 is next closest team)
Kamara will be 6 weeks removed from spraining ankle in W6
– Whether you think he’ll ever be fully right all year is up to you
– Raybon’s injury study from ’08-’15 had 107 RB “Probable” designations for “ankle,” and those RBs dropped an average of 15.2% PPR ppg
Thomas vs CAR:
2016 (26th in WR ppg allowed):
– 5 rec (5) 78yds, TD
– 5 rec (5) 68yds
2017 (29th in WR ppg allowed):
– 7 rec (8) 87yds, TD
– 5 rec (9) 70yds, TD
– 8 rec (9) 131yds
2018 (26th in WR ppg allowed):
– 7 rec (9) 49yds
Thomas with Brees in 2019 (DEF rank in ppg to WRs):
2 trailing gamescripts:
– 10 rec (13) 123yds (24th)
– 13 rec (14) 152yds (26th)
2 leading gamescripts:
– 11 rec (11) 112yds, TD (25th)
– 8 rec (11) 114yds, TD (32nd)
CAR may be 3rd in Pass Def DVOA, but they’re 28th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
– Thomas does move to slot as well where he can exploit the weakness of CAR pass D
This game is often a Brees-Keuchly chess match pre-snap for anyone who enjoys watching two football geniuses adapt and react to each other 60 times a game.
Dolphins at Browns, Week 12
#1 WRs vs MIA:
– M Brown: 4 rec (5) 147yds, 2 TD
– A Brown: 4 rec (8) 56yds, TD
– Cooper: 6 rec (7) 88yds, 2 TD
– Keenan: 5 rec (6) 48yds
– McLaurin: 4 rec (7) 100yds, 2 TD
– J Brown: 5 rec (6) 83yds, TD
– Juju: 5 rec (9) 103yds, TD
– Crowder: 8 rec (9) 83yds, TD
– J Brown: 9 rec (14) 137yds, 2 TD
Odell W1-9:
– 11.6 aDOT
– 34% air yds market share
– 0.60 WOPR
– 8.4 targets/g
Odell W10-11:
– 13.2 aDOT
– 59% air yds market share
– 0.89 WOPR
– 11 targets/g
MIA Rush DEF:
– 30th in Rush DEF DVOA
– 30th in Rush Eff Def
– 27th in RB DK ppg allowed
– 32nd in rush yards allowed to RBs
– 5 100+ yd rushers in 10 games
Nick Chubb:
– 16 att is his lowest total of the year!
– 20+ att in every game since W5
– Hunt has 10 att & 17 targets in 2 games, but even with him playing Chubb had 24 and 28 touches
– Rush Eff DEF faced: 4, 2, 3, 28, 17, 18, 14, 9, 27, 11
– In 28 & 27 games: 20 att 165yds, 3 TD & 20 att 116yds
Colts at Texans, Week 12
Hey guys, sorry for not getting much up last week and possibly this week as well. I had surgery last week so I’m still dealing with all that. Hopefully I’ll start getting some useful info up for you all again soon. Really appreciate the support I’ve gotten thus far!
HOU Pass Def:
– 3rd most QB ppg allowed
– 5 of 10 hit 300+ yd bonus
– Minshew and Allen combined for 1 TD in 3 games; All others:
o 2: Brees, Rivers
o 3: Ryan (+1 rush), Mahomes, Carr
o 4: Brissett, Lamar
–
– 9th most WR ppg allowed
– Big game or 2-WR stack in non-Minshew/Allen/Lamar games
o Thomas/Ginn: 25.3 – 20.1
o Chark: 18.5
o Keenan: 46.6
o Ridley/Sanu: 19.8 – 15.3
o Tyreek: 25
o Hilton/Pascal: 19.4 – 31.6
o Tyrell/Renfrow: 18.1 – 18.8
Although a scheme usually stronger against WRs, multiple good receivers have performed well against Indy this year:
– Hopkins 2nd best game of the year vs IND
– Hopkins targets since W6: 12, 12, 13, 11, 12
Patriots at Eagles, Week 11
Sharp’s RZ Blend Off that NE has faced:
– 30, 21, 31, 18, 32, 24, 31, 23, 6
– BAL, the 6th, scored 4 TDs on 4 RZ possessions
– PHI ranks 13th in this metric
Sharp’s Off Eff that NE has faced:
– 28, 31, 32, 26, 30, 24, 32, 25, 4
– BAL, the 4th, scored 30 offensive points
– PHI ranks 17th in this metric
Sharp’s 3rd Down Conv Off that NE has faced:
– 21, 26, 32, 23, 31, 18, 32, 29, 5
– BAL, the 5th, converted 5 of 10 3rd downs
– PHI ranks 4th in this metric