Kickoff Saturday, Dec 21st 4:30pm Eastern

Bills (
15.5) at

Patriots (

Over/Under 37.5


Key Matchups
Bills Run D
18th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per carry
Patriots Run O
23rd DVOA/24th Yards per carry
Bills Pass D
9th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per pass
Patriots Pass O
29th DVOA/28th Yards per pass
Patriots Run D
1st DVOA/1st Yards allowed per carry
Bills Run O
5th DVOA/9th Yards per carry
Patriots Pass D
13th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per pass
Bills Pass O
3rd DVOA/7th Yards per pass

The entire Saturday Main Slate writeup can be found in the Texans // Bucs game!

Xandamere’s “quick thoughts & pricing notes” for Showdown ::

  • I may just end up skipping this showdown because ewwww it just looks ugly.
  • The safest floor play is probably a coin flip between Edelman and Allen.
  • James White is overpriced for his ceiling but his floor is nice.
  • Broadly, I view the Bills skill position players as safer because the team has a narrower distribution of volume. Both matchups suck but, Edelman aside, it’s easier to project the Bills’ volume than the Patriots’.
  • Isaiah McKenzie is awfully cheap for a receiver playing half the snaps.
  • Pricing on Harry and Sanu should be flipped based on their usage (which, yes, makes Sanu a solid play despite ugly results lately).

Some groups to consider:

  • At most 1 kicker
  • At most 1 defense
  • Pair captain receivers with their QB
  • Pair captain Brady with at least 2 receivers and captain Allen with at least 1 receiver
  • At most 2 of the Pats running backs
  • At most 2 of Pats receivers not named Edelman
  • At most 1 of Singletary and Gore (but really, probably just don’t play Gore)