Kickoff Sunday, Oct 17th 1:00pm Eastern

Texans (
16.5) at
Colts (
28)

Over/Under 44.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Texans Run D
2nd DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per carry
Colts Run O
9th DVOA/16th Yards per carry
Texans Pass D
23rd DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per pass
Colts Pass O
17th DVOA/15th Yards per pass
Colts Run D
24th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per carry
Texans Run O
30th DVOA/26th Yards per carry
Colts Pass D
14th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per pass
Texans Pass O
12th DVOA/5th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>
  • A Colts blowout is likely
  • Jonathan Taylor has smash spot upside
  • Wentz/Taylor/Pittman block cost $17,500 on DK
  • The Colts D is $1,400 cheaper on DK than the Patriots D was last week in this matchup

How houston Will Try To Win ::

Football is a funny game, but the Texans are hilarious. Was that Tom Brady in a Davis Mills costume? Can Brady be in two places at once? I wouldn’t put it past him. After a historically ugly start to his career, Mills (or Brady with a lot of Botox), came out and slung the ball all over the Patriots defense which is known to confuse young QBs. His 312 yards and 3 TDs weren’t cheap stats piled up late, as the game was close throughout, and Mills went 21/29. Wow! Who saw that coming? Mills dressing up as Brady for Halloween wasn’t enough, as the Texans still managed to find a way to lose and extend their winless streak to four games.

The Texans draw a Colts team in Week 6 that is also 1-4, despite boasting a far superior roster. Given that the Colts just held the Ravens under 100 yards rushing as a team for the first time in years and have a strong DVOA against the run mark (ranked 2nd), it would make sense for the Texans to hope Davis Mills can keep injecting himself with Brady serum for at least one more week. Expect the Texans to try and attack the pass funnel Colts (30th in pass DVOA) as best they can through the air.  

How indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

The Colts are a disappointing 1-4 having had playoff aspirations coming into the season. Frank Reich has long been one of the better coaches in the NFL and it’s easy to argue this year’s Colt’s squad is his most talented. He was even reunited with Carson Wentz who he made a success during his time with the Eagles. What happened?  The schedule makers didn’t do him any favors, starting the year with the Seahawks/Rams/Titans/Ravens in the first five games. The Colts are 0-4 in those games but have lost by only a combined 30 points, including a heartbreaking OT loss last week on primetime. The Colts are better than their record.

Reich has always been willing to game plan (amazing that game planning is highlighted as a special thing about an NFL coach) creatively attacking the weakness of his opponent. This week, his opponent’s weakness is obvious with the Texans rushing defense (30th in DVOA) coming to town. This lines up well with the Colts preferred method of attack, creating a highly likely game scenario where the Colts run over the Texans. There is no reason to expect the Colts to take a different approach unless forced out of their game plan which is unlikely in this spot.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game checks in with the lowest total on the main slate at 42.5. The total is low because only one team is expected to do any scoring. The betting markets aren’t buying Davis Mills’ disguise, and the Texans are sporting a pitiful 16.5 team total. The Colts on the other hand have one of the higher team totals on the slate sitting at 26. This sets up as a game where the Colts manhandle the Texans upfront, forcing them to abandon the run (they should do this on their own anyway) and letting Davis Mills try to keep them in the game. Expect the Colts to take an early lead and maintain it throughout the game, with real blowout possibilities if Davis Mills reverts back to the guy we saw before last week’s impressive performance.

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DFS+ Interpretation ::

By LexMiraglia10 >>

Carson Wentz:

  • Wentz hadn’t topped 251 pass yds in four games until last week’s 402 yd explosion vs BAL
  • Wentz was returning at the front end of an injury timeline for a serious foot injury at the start of the season
  • Wentz has 2 TD in 3 of 5 games
  • QB TDs allowed by HOU: 3 // 2 // 2 // 3 // 1
  • HOU ranks 9th in def pass DVOA after facing Lawrence/Baker/Darnold/Allen/Mac
  • Pass att vs HOU: 51 // 24 // 34 // 30 // 30
  • Wentz pass att: 38 // 31 // 37 // 32 // 35

IND Pass-Catchers:

  • Campbell, Cox, & Doyle all have just one game of 50+ rec yds on the season each
  • Pascal has between 31-48 yds in all five games
  • Pittman yds: 29 // 123 // 68 // 59 // 89:1
  • Targets: Pittman (43) // Pascal (28) // Campbell (16) // Doyle (16) // Cox (15)
  • HOU has allowed the 9th highest yds/att to WRs
  • WRs with 70+ yds vs HOU: Chark (86:1), MJJ (77:1) // Moore (126) // Diggs (114), Sanders (74)
  • TEs with 40+ yds vs HOU: O’Shag (48) // Bryant (49), Hooper (40) // Henry (75:1)
  • HOU has allowed four TE TDs
  • HOU has allowed the 3rd highest success rate to TEs
  • Cox has out-targeted Doyle 9 to 2 in the last two games

Jonathan Taylor:

  • Backfields vs HOU are averaging 142.4 total yds; HOU allowed a league-high 190.9 yds/g in 2020 so that’s a positive increase for the Texans
  • Nine RBs in five games have topped 50 total yds vs HOU
  • Taylor has topped 50 total yds in every game, and 100+ total yds in three games
  • HOU ranks 30th in defensive rush DVOA
  • Taylor rush att: 17 // 15 // 10 // 16 // 15
  • RBs with 14+ rush att vs HOU: Singletary (14:79), Moss (14:61:1) // Harris (14:58:1)
  • Taylor (18) has just one less target on the season than Hines (19)
  • Taylor has two games of 60+ rec yds (60 // 116:1) in 2021
  • Taylor as a Home Favorite (yds:TD): 110:1 // 62:1 // 115 // 114 // 95:1 // 254:2
  • Taylor vs 2020 HOU: 13:91, 3:44:1 // 16:83:1, 4:12

Davis Mills:

  • In 10 Quarters vs CLE/CAR/BUF, Mills totaled 357 yds, 2 TD, 5 INT, 8 sacks, and HOU scored 16 total points
  • In 4 Quarters vs NE, Mills totaled 312 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, 3 sacks, and HOU scored 22 points
  • IND is allowing the most fantasy points per pass att in 2021 (per @TJHernandez), and they were allowing the most even before Lamar’s eruption
  • IND has allowed the 4th highest yds/att (9.0)
  • Mills pass att in starts: 28 // 21 // 29
  • Lamar was the first to throw for more than 30 passes vs IND
  • IND has allowed 15 pass TDs in five games

Brandin Cooks:

  • IND has already allowed 10 WR TDs in five games
  • IND has allowed the highest success rate and 3rd highest yds/att to WRs
  • Top WR vs IND by week: Lockett (4:100:2) // Kupp (9:163:2) // Westbrook (4:53:1) // Parker (4:77:1) // Hollywood (9:125:2)
  • Starting CB Xavier Rhodes & S Andrew Sendejo are expected to miss this game
  • Cooks targets on Mills pass att: 9/18, 11/28, 7/21, 5/29
  • Cooks in 10 quarters with Mills: 4:28:1, 9:112, 5:47, 3:23
  • WR rec:yds:TD allowed by last 3 HOU opponents: CAR (51:641:5) // BUF (63:558:2) // NE (58:803:4)
  • WR rec:yds allowed by IND: 60:866:10
  • Those opponents all rank in the top 8 for DK pts allowed to WRs, whereas IND has allowed the 8th most DK pts to WRs