Game Overview ::
By MJohnson86 >>
- The Rams enter this game with 10 days of rest and now start a ridiculously easy stretch of the schedule as they face the Giants >> Lions >> Texans over the next three weeks — teams with a combined 2-13 record.
- The Giants are a team in disarray in both performance and their injury situation, with 14 players currently on the injury report — many of which are starters.
- The Rams offense has a huge advantage at every level of the field, while the Rams defense has struggled by their standards this season but has a huge talent advantage in this matchup.
How Los Angeles Will Try To Win ::
Matthew Stafford and the Rams should have their way with the Giants on the offensive side of the ball. The Giants rank in the bottom-10 of the league in DVOA against both the run and the pass, with their PFF grades also falling into that bottom tier category. The Rams play at the third fastest pace in the NFL and should certainly keep that pace up in this matchup against a defense that has looked in disarray most of the year. We can look to the Giants matchup last week with Dallas to give us a glimpse of what to expect from the Rams offense here as both Dallas and Los Angeles are highly efficient offenses that play at a top five pace and have playmakers at every skill position group and top-10 offensive lines. Dallas scored 44 points with relative ease as Dak Prescott averaged nearly 10 yards per pass attempt and both Dallas running backs averaged over 5 yards per carry. Last week the Cowboys went for over 500 yards of total offense and the Rams should have a good chance to approach that number as well.
The Rams pass at a league average rate of about 58% and there is nothing about this matchup that would lead them to do anything other than playing how they want to — balanced, aggressive, and with pace. After a bad loss to the Cardinals in Week 4 and an ugly win against the Seahawks on a short week, the Rams are likely to want to get back to being who they are and rediscovering their high-scoring identity. The Giants defense is the perfect remedy for them to get back on track and I fully expect the Rams to take advantage of all of their advantages here.
How new york Will Try To Win ::
For a team that is, by all accounts and most metrics, near the bottom of the league in terms of talent and execution, the Giants actually play at a pretty high pace and throw at an above-average rate. While many teams who are talent deficient will try to slow things down, the Giants haven’t shown those tendencies and the loss of Saquon Barkley makes it unlikely that they will start slowing things down with the run game in Week 6. As of this writing (Thursday afternoon), Daniel Jones has had limited practices on both Wednesday and Thursday which gives him a pretty good shot at being cleared from his concussion in time for Sunday’s game. Assuming Jones plays, it is likely that the Giants will lean on him to move the ball through the air rather than using a backup running back to slam the ball into the Rams #1 graded rush defense by PFF, led by All-Pro defensive tackle Aaron Donald.
The Giants will be without Kenny Golladay, but it appears that Kadarius Toney, Sterling Shepard, and Darius Slayton all have a good chance to play as they have all practiced in some capacity the last two days. Assuming at least two of those receivers are cleared, the Giants would have respectable weapons in the passing game which would raise their chances of success and keeping pace — at least for a little while. The problem for the Giants is that their offensive success will only serve to push the Rams to be more aggressive as well and they really don’t have the firepower to keep up. The Giants are unlikely to have much choice in the matter as far as how they try to win. They have a poor offensive line and a replacement-level RB facing a stout run defense, while the Rams offense will not allow them to settle for short drives and just trying to play a field position game. Attempting to move the ball through the air is the only chance the Giants have and, even then, they’ll need a few breaks to keep this one close.
Likeliest Game Flow ::
Both teams play at an above-average pace and this game has a very good chance of turning uptempo in a hurry. The Rams play fast and should have a lot of success here — moving the ball down the field quickly either through tempo or chunk plays. While the Giants will likely be forced to the air, even more so than usual, and also play at a fast pace. This sets the game up for a high volume of plays with the Rams likely to have success with that volume and efficiency and the Giants needing heavy volume to see success but they are likely to get that volume.
The likely game flow here is that the Rams take control early and the Giants abandon the run, almost completely, relatively early in the game. The Rams are unlikely to totally take their foot off the gas until late in the game, at which point there is a good chance they have had an incredible amount of offensive success. I think the Rams are a sneaky bet to score the most points of any team on the main slate this week and this spot reminds me of Tampa Bay’s spot against the Dolphins last week — a severe mismatch that will lend itself to significant volume for an offensive juggernaut who is trying to “get right”. This could very easily be an “it all falls down” game for the Giants.
OWS FAM GOOGLE DRIVE
TOP PLAYS OF THE WEEKEND
SORTABLE GREEN ZONE TOUCHES
TEAM & PLAYER DK POINTS
DFS+ Interpretation ::
By Alex88 >>
- Totals have gone over in 4 out of 5 Rams games
- Totals have gone over in 3 out of 5 Giants games
- Rams offense ranks 8th per PFF, defense ranks 1st
- Giants offense ranks 16th, defense ranks 27th
- Stafford is PFF’s 15th ranked QB in passing grade
- His ADOT ranks 11th, QBR ranks 4th
- With play action, he grades out as 3rd best
- Without it, Stafford ranks 19th
- LAR ranks 4th in passing usage inside of the 10 yard line (54.6%)
- Stafford’s DK log: 27.34 // 18.22 // 32.52 // 20.3 // 20.5
- NYG ranks 26th in DK ppg to QBs (23.7)
LAR Passing Attack
- LAR leads the league in 11 personnel usage (81%)
- They’ve utilized 12 personnel at an 18% rate
- Snap shares: Robert Woods 92% // Cooper Kupp 91.6% // Tyler Higbee 86.8% // Van Jefferson 86.8% // DeSean Jackson 25.7%
- Target shares: Kupp 32.6% // Woods 22.7% // Jefferson 12.8% // Higbee 11.6% // Jackson 7.6%
- Kupp has double digit targets all 5 games
- He ranks 2nd in target share and 6th in WOPR among all WRs
- Kupps DK log: 26.8 // 39.8 // 30.6 // 11.4 // 16.2
- His 25 ppg rank 1st
- Woods had 14 targets in Week 5, the highest single game total by any Ram WR and the third most by any WR in the league
- He ranks 19th in target share
- Woods DK log: 12.4 // 12 // 6.8 // 14.8 // 30
- Jefferson averages 4 targets per game
- His DK log: 16 // 2.4 // 8.2 // 21 // 2.6
- Jackson’s highest total targets (5) came in Week 3 when Darrell Henderson was absent
- He leads all qualified WRs in the league with a 21.8 ADOT
- NYG ranks 13th against WRs (38.1 DK ppg)
- Higbee averages 9.1 DK ppg on 4 targets per game
- DK log: 11.8 // 1.8 // 15 // 7.6 // 9.4
- NYG ranks 25th against TEs (16.5)
- In four games, Darrell Henderson has a 62.4% snap share versus Michel’s 31.2% share in five games
- He’s averaging 3.2 targets to Michel’s 1
- In touches per game, Henderson leads 17.5 to 9.8
- Henderson ranks 9th in goal line share and 10th in RBOPR
- His DK log: 15.7 // 17.2 // 16.6 // 16.9
- NYG ranks 27th against RBs (29.4)
- Daniel Jones is averaging 20.8 DK ppg (tied for 11th)
- He ranks 6th in PFF passing grade (86.5)
- His ADOT ranks 10th
- DK log: 22.38 // 29.46 // 16.54 // 30.78 // 4.82 before entering the concussion protocol
- His status for Week 6 is not yet known
- Mike Glennon has PFF’s 32nd best passing grade (61.0)
NYG Passing Attack
- Through an injury riddled season, NYG has utilized 11 personnel at a 64% rate and 12 personnel at 25%
- Snap counts: Kenny Golladay (52, 58, 48, 58, 24) // Kyle Rudolph (47, 49, 29, 37, 41) // John Ross (-, -, -, 28, 41) // Kadarius Toney (5, 19, 46, 49, 37) // Sterling Shepard (58, 64, 24, -, -) // Evan Engram (-, -, 39, 43, 50) // Darius Slayton (43, 39, 9, -, -)
- Target counts: Kenny (6, 8, 5, 7, 3) // Toney (2, 0, 3, 9, 13) // Shepard (9, 10, 3, -, -) // Engram (-, -, 6, 6, 4) // Slayton (7, 6, 1, -, -) // Rudolph (5, 2, 0, 3, 1) // Ross (-, -, -, 4, 5)
- DK logs: Kenny (10.4, 6.8, 10.4, 20.6, 0) // Toney (1.8, 0, 3.6, 13.9, 32.6) // Shepard (27.3, 17.5, 3.6, -, -) // Engram (-, -, 3.1, 7.4, 9.5) // Slayton (9.5, 14.4, 1.8, -, -) // Rudolph (2.8, 4.5, 0, 4.4, 2.4) // Ross (-, -, -, 16.7, 2.3)
- Toney’s 13 targets in Week 5 were the third highest on the week
- LAR ranks 23rd against WRs (41)
- They rank 19th against TEs (14)
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