Chiefs (

30.25) at
WFT (

23.75)

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• The top game environment on the slate. This game left me feeling exactly as JM relayed in the Angles email on Thursday (quite clearly the best expected game environment on the slate, let’s not overthink things here).
• Clyde Edwards-Helaire suffered a sprained MCL in Week 5, leaving the Kansas City backfield to Darrel Williams and Jerick McKinnon.
• In addition to CEH being out, all of cornerback Charvarius Ward, wide receiver Tyreek Hill, defensive tackle Chris Jones, and offensive lineman Joe Thuney have yet to practice this week for the Chiefs.
• Washington’s pass-catching corps appears extremely thin, with tight end Logan Thomas out and Curtis Samuel and Cam Sims unlikely to play.
• These defenses rank as the first and second-worst defenses in points allowed over expectation this season; both teams rank bottom five in the league in drive success rate allowed on defense.

How Kansas City Will Try To Win ::

Kansas City’s 62% situation-neutral pass rate through five weeks ranks 11^th in the league, but, as we’ve explored in this space previously, they have one of the higher pass rates on second down. When we then consider the injury to starting running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire and the extreme pass-funnel nature of the Washington defense, we can assume with a great deal of confidence that we see inflated pass rates from the Chiefs this week. The beauty of this Chiefs team lies in their offensive and defensive efficiency metrics. The Chiefs rank first in the NFL in offensive efficiency and dead last in the NFL in defensive efficiency, a potent combination when considering their potential game environments. Finally, keep an eye on the expected status of Tyreek Hill this week, who has yet to practice.

It’s anyone’s guess as to the potential running back oppourtunity dispersal in the absence of CEH, but we’re likely to see Darrel Williams operate as the early down rusher with Jerrick McKinnon utilized as the change of pace and third down back. The matchup on the ground yields a below average 4.185 net-adjusted line yards metric and the standard 15-18 running back opportunities seen by CEH over the first five weeks are likely to be split amongst the remaining backs. I’d tentatively expect 12-14 running back opportunities for Williams with most of them being rushes and eight to 10 for McKinnon with likely a handful of targets. 

Like we alluded to above, it is likely we see increased pass rates from the Chiefs this week. Not only that, but the matchup tilts in favor of the pass as well as Washington has allowed a massive 11.6 average yards per completion and moderate 64.64% completion rate in coverage. Patrick Mahomes somehow ranks towards the bottom of the league in intended air yards per pass attempt this season, but the biggest draw is in the expected efficiency. Washington has surrendered the second most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position and second most points over expectation overall. Tyreek Hill’s status is one to monitor. His absence would likely mean increased snap rates for Byron Pringle, who profiles the best to attempt to replicate Cheetah’s routes and profile, leaving both Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson’s roles largely unchanged as 70-80% snap rate players. The biggest boost as far as expected volume goes would likely fall to tight end Travis Kelce, but we can expect Kansas City to continue to attack vertically with the remaining wide receivers as well. Should Tyreek play, it is likely he is doing so at a “healthy enough” level of health to warrant strong consideration. 

How Washington Will Try To Win ::

Washington’s balanced offense has been hit or miss from an efficiency standpoint with Taylor Heinicke at quarterback. I expect running back Antonio Gibson to play this weekend, while wide receivers Cam Sims and Curtis Samuel have already been ruled out and rookie wide receiver Dyami Brown is legitimately questionable. With every-down tight end Logan Thomas also out, expect a narrowed dispersal of volume in a matchup where pass volume should be plentiful. We spoke to Washington’s shortcomings against opposing quarterbacks earlier, well, Kansas City is the only team to allow more fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks and more total points allowed over expectation. Giddy up.

The matchup on the ground yields an average 4.345 net-adjusted line yards metric and should be considered a plus matchup for the Football Team. Expect Antonio Gibson to continue playing through a fracture in his shin, which is reportedly somehow not painful. Gibson has seen between 14 and 25 (first game of the season) running back opportunities in each game this year, which should be considered his standard range of outcomes. He is obviously more likely to land towards the top end of that range in neutral to positive game scripts while more likely to land towards the low end of that range in negative game scripts. Behind Gibson, expect the standard change of pace and third-down duties to fall to JD McKissic, who should also serve as the two-minute back and negative game script back. The Chiefs have allowed 29.6 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields, including filtering 34 targets to the position through five games. Considering the dearth of viable pass-catchers, it doesn’t take a large stretch of the imagination to envision a scenario where McKissic saunters into double-digit target territory in negative game flows here.

Speaking of the dearth of pass-catching options, wide receiver Terry McLaurin and tight end Ricky Seals-Jones should be the sole remaining every-down pass-catchers this week, with some combination of Dyami Brown (if healthy), DeAndre Carter, and Dax Milne seeing meaningful snaps. Terry McLaurin has surpassed 11 targets in three of five games and is highly likely to do so again here, while Ricky Seals-Jones saw nine targets in his first full game as the starter and is likely to pierce double-digit looks as well. Realistically, there is a scenario where the trio of McLaurin, RSJ, and McKissic sees 30 targets combined if the game script tilts the Football Team pass-heavy sooner rather than later. There just aren’t many healthy bodies remaining here.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

It’s easy to envision a game scenario where the Chiefs completely wipe the Football Team off the field, but equally as likely is this game developing into a back-and-forth, shootout-style affair. More important than the actual likeliest game flow is the idea that the Chiefs should be primarily attacking through the air. This is the main realization that affects the rest of this game. So, instead of a likeliest game flow, we’re going to explore the “likeliest plan of attack transferred to DFS decision-making tree”. Because the Chiefs are likeliest to attack primarily through the air here, and because we know they are likely to find success in doing so, we can make the conclusion that there will be additional plays available for both teams and that the Chiefs will be able to score fairly quickly. If the Chiefs are able to score fairly quickly, then Washington will be charged with keeping pace. The best way for them to do so is likely to begin on the ground but could turn away from that avenue of attack fairly quickly. If they are forced into aerial aggression (which they have shown the propensity and willingness to do) early in the first half, the vast majority of that pass game work is likeliest to flow through three players: Terry McLaurin, Ricky Seals-Jones, and JD McKissic. Although unlikely, a tributary scenario involves Washinton scoring on the ground early, which would set Antonio Gibson up to approach 20 running back opportunities and lower the likelihood of a boost in receiving usage for McKissic. 

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DFS+ Interpretation ::