Kickoff Sunday, Oct 17th 1:00pm Eastern

Packers (
24.75) at

Bears (
19.25)

Over/Under 44.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Packers Run D
28th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per carry
Bears Run O
22nd DVOA/14th Yards per carry
Packers Pass D
15th DVOA/10th Yards allowed per pass
Bears Pass O
27th DVOA/30th Yards per pass
Bears Run D
23rd DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per carry
Packers Run O
8th DVOA/18th Yards per carry
Bears Pass D
10th DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per pass
Packers Pass O
2nd DVOA/8th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>
  • This is an interesting matchup with strength vs. strength on one side of the ball (Green Bay offense against Chicago defense) and weakness vs. weakness on the other side of the ball (Chicago offense against Green Bay defense).
  • This projects to be a slow paced game as both teams bleed the play clock and have play calling tendencies that usually have the clock running.
  • While this game is viewed by most as a clear mismatch (and it very well may be just that), it has huge division ramifications for a Week 6 game. A Bears win would put them at the top of the division, while a Packers win would effectively give them a 2.5 game lead on the field.

How green bay Will Try To Win ::

As discussed in the game overview above, this game is a big one for division purposes. The Packers have one goal in mind this season in what could be Aaron Rodgers’ last season with the team — winning a Super Bowl. The first step in that process is locking up the division. While they still have a long ways to go in that process, a road win at their current top competition would certainly be helpful. The Packers sit at 4-1 but could just as easily sit at 2-3 if not for last-second heroics in San Francisco and barely escaping in overtime from Cincinnati. It would be easy to look at their record and say, “this is the same Packers team as last year,” but that would be jumping the gun. Last season the Packers also sat at 4-1 entering Week 6, but their average margin of victory was 12.75 points (8.25 this year), and they were averaging 38 points per game in victories (29 ppg this year). While those numbers are still solid, it is worth noting that they are grinding out victories rather than smashing teams this year, something that is important because their output has always been dependent on efficiency rather than volume due to their plodding pace. Also, this year’s numbers are somewhat inflated by their Week 2 game against the Lions’ 29th rated defense.

What this all means for “how Green Bay will try to win” is that they should enter this game very focused and approach it ready to play a clean game. I don’t expect them to get “cute” with things (playcalling, personnel, usage, etc.) which means that we should expect Davante Adams to operate as an offensive centerpiece and Aaron Jones to be used as a feature back, even if he cedes 30-40% of snaps to AJ Dillon. The Bears have a top-5 defense in DVOA and are stronger against the pass (4th) than the run (11th). Still, this is not a matchup that should scare them away from their usual strategy of heavily targeting Davante Adams — who currently leads the NFL with a 37.9% target share. Simply put, he is not someone you can stop. You can only hope to contain him. Last week, the Packers offense combined for 57 total offensive opportunities (carries + targets), and Davante Adams and Aaron Jones combined for a whopping 35 of them — a 61.4% share. We should expect a very similar approach this week, with the likelihood of the Packers controlling the game against a less potent Bears offense potentially sliding more of that workload away from Adams and towards Jones.

How chicago Will Try To Win ::

Chicago is running the ball at a very high rate, especially since Justin Fields took over as their starting quarterback. Fields has attempted 57 total passes (19 per game) in his three games as the starter, a number that is unheard of in the NFL in 2021. It is unlikely that the Bears stray from this strategy this week as they will attempt to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field and shorten the game, hoping to win a slug-it-out game and emerge on top of the division. Even if the Packers take control, the Bears are unlikely to really open things up until mid to late in the 3rd quarter.

While the conservative nature of the Bears offense has drawn attention, only those who have watched the Bears games the last two weeks have seen the differences in how the offense operates since Bill Lazor took over play-calling duties. In Week 4, against the Lions, Lazor dialed up more downfield looks that took advantage of Fields’ deep ball accuracy and arm strength. Last week against the Raiders, the Bears operated out of the shotgun and spread formations more frequently while also getting Fields out of the pocket and on the move — giving him easier half-field reads where he has a couple of options, and if they aren’t there, he can run the ball or throw it away. It is not moving as fast as all of the Fields truthers would have liked, but the Bears are slowly but surely building an offense around what their franchise QB does well.

With Jaire Alexander and Za’Darius Smith both missing from the Packers’ defense, this matchup is not overly concerning for the Bears, and their usage of their all-purpose QB could keep them in this game. It is hard to believe it until we see it, but the Bears are likely going to have to lean on Fields here more than they have been if they want a chance to win. It is good to see that they are at least installing the concepts that are needed for that to even be a possibility. The Bears will still operate at a plodding pace and lean run-heavy, but they also must understand that they will need to score points to beat an Aaron Rodgers offense, and that should lead to slightly more aggressive play-calling than the snooze fest we’ve seen the last couple weeks.

Likeliest Game Flow ::

This game is going to be slow-paced and likely move quickly due to the fact that the clock should be running consistently. Chicago runs the ball at the 3rd highest rate in the NFL while also operating the 5th slowest offense in terms of pace of play (33.16 seconds between snaps). Aaron Rodgers is notorious for using as much of the play clock as he can to gather information and make adjustments to play calls, hot routes, and blocking assignments before pulling the trigger on the snap. The Packers also run the ball at a league-average rate, and when they throw, Rodgers is very accurate, meaning that most of their plays also result in a running clock. The result of those tendencies is that the clock will continue to run between most plays on both sides of the ball, and both teams are going to use most of their 40 seconds between each play.

The Bears’ defense is good enough that it should be able to at least contain the Packers offense from having the high-efficiency games they usually need to have offensive explosions. The Bears’ offense is so conservative that they will also not push the pace or scoring. The result is that this game should be controlled by the Packers, but likely not in a manner that they will run away with it on the scoreboard early in the game. There simply won’t be enough drives to allow an early offensive explosion unless they have a true outlier game, which the matchup and importance of the game make unlikely to happen.


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DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Alex88 >>

OVERVIEW

  • GB is the league’s slowest team in adjust seconds per play (32.5, per numberFire)
  • CHI is the fifth fastest (28.4)
  • Per PFF, GB’s offense ranks 2nd and CHI ranks 25th
  • GB’s defense ranks 10th and CHI ranks 21st
  • OVER is 2-3 in GB games and 1-4 in CHI games

Aaron Rodgers

  • Rodgers ranks 18th in PFF passing grade, 8th in ADOT, and 15th in YPA
  • DK log: 3.32 // 26.8 // 19.04 // 24.12 // 23.76
  • Since 2014, Rodgers averages 22.31 ppg against CHI
  • CHI ranks 4th against QBs (16.9)

GB Passing Attack

  • GB uses 11 personnel at a 62% rate and 12 personnel at a 31% rate
  • Snap share: Davante Adams 85.4% // Allen Lazard 73.2% // M. Valdes-Scantling 64.3% // Robert Tonyan 61.1% // Randall Cobb 36.1%
  • Target share: Adams 35.9% // Tonyan 10% // MVS 9.4% // Cobb 8.2% // Lazard 5.9%
  • Adams ranks 1st in targets, 1st in air yards, 1st in target share, 4th in air yards market share, and 1st in WOPR among all players
  • His 24.2 DK ppg rank 4th among WRs
  • In 14 games against CHI, Adams has averaged 14.81 DK pts
  • Adams DK log this year: 10.6 // 23.1 // 34.2 // 12.4 // 40.6
  • In his last 10 games against CHI as a Packer, Cobb averages 16.79 DK pts
  • Cobb’s DK log this year: 4.3 // 5.6 // 0 // 23.9 // 5
  • Cobb has an 81.2% slot usage
  • Stat lines for opposing team’s primary slot WRs against CHI: Cooper Kupp 7/9-108-1 // Tyler Boyd 7/9-73-0 // Rashard Higgins 2/2-24-0 // Amon-Ra St. Brown 6/8-70-0 // Hunter Renfrow 6/8-56-0
  • Lazard’s DK log: 3.6 // 0 // 5.2 // 5.3 // 2.6
  • CHI ranks 24th in DK ppg allowed to WRs (41)
  • Tonyan’s DK log: 2.8 // 14.2 // 1.6 // 2.8 // 1.8
  • CHI ranks 6th against TEs (8.2)

GB RBs

  • Aaron Jones has a 64.8% snap share this season (51.88% last year)
  • He’s averaging 3.8 targets (4.5 last year)
  • He’s averaging 17.4 touches (17.7 last year)
  • Aaron’s DK log: 4.2 // 41.5 // 17.6 // 11.9 // 17.9
  • AJ Dillon has a 32.1% snap share, 2 targets per game (after 4 in Week 5), and 9.4 touches per game
  • Dillon’s DK log: 3.6 // 3.6 // 4.6 // 10.7 // 17.9
  • CHI ranks 7th against RBs (20.2)

Justin Fields

  • Fields ranks 32nd in PFF passing grade
  • His 10.0 ADOT is tied for third with Jameis Winston
  • His 6.4 YPA ranks 33rd
  • He’s had only three rushing attempts each of his three starts
  • Through three starts, he’s averaging just 7.01 DK ppg
  • DK log: 3.92 // 8.26 // 8.84
  • GB ranks 15th against QBs (20.9)

CHI Passing Attack

  • CHI uses 11 personnel at a 65% rate and 12 personnel at a 12% rate
  • Snap shares: Darnell Mooney 86.7% // Cole Kmet 82.7% // Allen Robinson 82.4% // Damiere Byrd 46.8% // Marquise Goodwin 39.9%
  • Target shares: Mooney 25.4% // Robinson 23.8% // Kmet 15.6% // Goodwin 9.8%
  • Mooney ranks 22nd in target share, 19th in air yard market share, and 19th in WOPR among all wideouts
  • DK log: 7.6 // 12.6 // 1.9 // 21.5 // 6.5
  • Robinson averaged over 16 DK ppg in both 2019 and 2020
  • This season he’s averaging only 8.22 pts
  • DK log: 9.5 // 10.4 // 4.7 // 9.3 // 7.2
  • Goodwin hasn’t had over 15 DK pts since September 2019
  • GB ranks 10th against WRs (34.7)
  • Kmet scored 9.2 pts against the Rams in Week 1
  • He’s scored less than 5 since then
  • GB ranks 21st against TEs (14.6)

CHI RBs

  • David Montgomery dominated snaps for four weeks but had an even split in targets with Damien Williams
  • In Week 5 without Montgomery, Damien had 31 snaps to Khalil Herbert’s 34
  • Damien had all 3 RB targets
  • Damien and Khalil tied with 18 touches, but Damien had the only RB score
  • Damien had 3 goal line rushes to Khalil’s 1
  • GB ranks 16th in DK ppg allowed to RBs (24.8)