Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• The top game environment on the slate. This game left me feeling exactly as JM relayed in the Angles email on Thursday (quite clearly the best expected game environment on the slate, let’s not overthink things here).
• Clyde Edwards-Helaire suffered a sprained MCL in Week 5, leaving the Kansas City backfield to Darrel Williams and Jerick McKinnon.
• In addition to CEH being out, all of cornerback Charvarius Ward, wide receiver Tyreek Hill, defensive tackle Chris Jones, and offensive lineman Joe Thuney have yet to practice this week for the Chiefs.
• Washington’s pass-catching corps appears extremely thin, with tight end Logan Thomas out and Curtis Samuel and Cam Sims unlikely to play.
• These defenses rank as the first and second-worst defenses in points allowed over expectation this season; both teams rank bottom five in the league in drive success rate allowed on defense.

How Kansas City Will Try To Win ::

Kansas City’s 62% situation-neutral pass rate through five weeks ranks 11^th in the league, but, as we’ve explored in this space previously, they have one of the higher pass rates on second down. When we then consider the injury to starting running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire and the extreme pass-funnel nature of the Washington defense, we can assume with a great deal of confidence that we see inflated pass rates from the Chiefs this week. The beauty of this Chiefs team lies in their offensive and defensive efficiency metrics. The Chiefs rank first in the NFL in offensive efficiency and dead last in the NFL in defensive efficiency, a potent combination when considering their potential game environments. Finally, keep an eye on the expected status of Tyreek Hill this week, who has yet to practice.

It’s anyone’s guess as to the potential running back oppourtunity dispersal in the absence of CEH, but we’re likely to see Darrel Williams operate as the early down rusher with Jerrick McKinnon utilized as the change of pace and third down back. The matchup on the ground yields a below average 4.185 net-adjusted line yards metric and the standard 15-18 running back opportunities seen by CEH over the first five weeks are likely to be split amongst the remaining backs. I’d tentatively expect 12-14 running back opportunities for Williams with most of them being rushes and eight to 10 for McKinnon with likely a handful of targets. 

Like we alluded to above, it is likely we see increased pass rates from the Chiefs this week. Not only that, but the matchup tilts in favor of the pass as well as Washington has allowed a massive 11.6 average yards per completion and moderate 64.64% completion rate in coverage. Patrick Mahomes somehow ranks towards the bottom of the league in intended air yards per pass attempt this season, but the biggest draw is in the expected efficiency. Washington has surrendered the second most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position and second most points over expectation overall. Tyreek Hill’s status is one to monitor. His absence would likely mean increased snap rates for Byron Pringle, who profiles the best to attempt to replicate Cheetah’s routes and profile, leaving both Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson’s roles largely unchanged as 70-80% snap rate players. The biggest boost as far as expected volume goes would likely fall to tight end Travis Kelce, but we can expect Kansas City to continue to attack vertically with the remaining wide receivers as well. Should Tyreek play, it is likely he is doing so at a “healthy enough” level of health to warrant strong consideration. 

How Washington Will Try To Win ::

Washington’s balanced offense has been hit or miss from an efficiency standpoint with Taylor Heinicke at quarterback. I expect running back Antonio Gibson to play this weekend, while wide receivers Cam Sims and Curtis Samuel have already been ruled out and rookie wide receiver Dyami Brown is legitimately questionable. With every-down tight end Logan Thomas also out, expect a narrowed dispersal of volume in a matchup where pass volume should be plentiful. We spoke to Washington’s shortcomings against opposing quarterbacks earlier, well, Kansas City is the only team to allow more fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks and more total points allowed over expectation. Giddy up.

The matchup on the ground yields an average 4.345 net-adjusted line yards metric and should be considered a plus matchup for the Football Team. Expect Antonio Gibson to continue playing through a fracture in his shin, which is reportedly somehow not painful. Gibson has seen between 14 and 25 (first game of the season) running back opportunities in each game this year, which should be considered his standard range of outcomes. He is obviously more likely to land towards the top end of that range in neutral to positive game scripts while more likely to land towards the low end of that range in negative game scripts. Behind Gibson, expect the standard change of pace and third-down duties to fall to JD McKissic, who should also serve as the two-minute back and negative game script back. The Chiefs have allowed 29.6 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields, including filtering 34 targets to the position through five games. Considering the dearth of viable pass-catchers, it doesn’t take a large stretch of the imagination to envision a scenario where McKissic saunters into double-digit target territory in negative game flows here.

Speaking of the dearth of pass-catching options, wide receiver Terry McLaurin and tight end Ricky Seals-Jones should be the sole remaining every-down pass-catchers this week, with some combination of Dyami Brown (if healthy), DeAndre Carter, and Dax Milne seeing meaningful snaps. Terry McLaurin has surpassed 11 targets in three of five games and is highly likely to do so again here, while Ricky Seals-Jones saw nine targets in his first full game as the starter and is likely to pierce double-digit looks as well. Realistically, there is a scenario where the trio of McLaurin, RSJ, and McKissic sees 30 targets combined if the game script tilts the Football Team pass-heavy sooner rather than later. There just aren’t many healthy bodies remaining here.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

It’s easy to envision a game scenario where the Chiefs completely wipe the Football Team off the field, but equally as likely is this game developing into a back-and-forth, shootout-style affair. More important than the actual likeliest game flow is the idea that the Chiefs should be primarily attacking through the air. This is the main realization that affects the rest of this game. So, instead of a likeliest game flow, we’re going to explore the “likeliest plan of attack transferred to DFS decision-making tree”. Because the Chiefs are likeliest to attack primarily through the air here, and because we know they are likely to find success in doing so, we can make the conclusion that there will be additional plays available for both teams and that the Chiefs will be able to score fairly quickly. If the Chiefs are able to score fairly quickly, then Washington will be charged with keeping pace. The best way for them to do so is likely to begin on the ground but could turn away from that avenue of attack fairly quickly. If they are forced into aerial aggression (which they have shown the propensity and willingness to do) early in the first half, the vast majority of that pass game work is likeliest to flow through three players: Terry McLaurin, Ricky Seals-Jones, and JD McKissic. Although unlikely, a tributary scenario involves Washinton scoring on the ground early, which would set Antonio Gibson up to approach 20 running back opportunities and lower the likelihood of a boost in receiving usage for McKissic. 

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DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By MJohnson86 >>

• The Rams enter this game with 10 days of rest and now start a ridiculously easy stretch of the schedule as they face the Giants >> Lions >> Texans over the next three weeks — teams with a combined 2-13 record.
• The Giants are a team in disarray in both performance and their injury situation, with 14 players currently on the injury report — many of which are starters.
• The Rams offense has a huge advantage at every level of the field, while the Rams defense has struggled by their standards this season but has a huge talent advantage in this matchup.

How Los Angeles Will Try To Win ::

Matthew Stafford and the Rams should have their way with the Giants on the offensive side of the ball. The Giants rank in the bottom-10 of the league in DVOA against both the run and the pass, with their PFF grades also falling into that bottom tier category. The Rams play at the third fastest pace in the NFL and should certainly keep that pace up in this matchup against a defense that has looked in disarray most of the year. We can look to the Giants matchup last week with Dallas to give us a glimpse of what to expect from the Rams offense here as both Dallas and Los Angeles are highly efficient offenses that play at a top five pace and have playmakers at every skill position group and top-10 offensive lines. Dallas scored 44 points with relative ease as Dak Prescott averaged nearly 10 yards per pass attempt and both Dallas running backs averaged over 5 yards per carry. Last week the Cowboys went for over 500 yards of total offense and the Rams should have a good chance to approach that number as well.

The Rams pass at a league average rate of about 58% and there is nothing about this matchup that would lead them to do anything other than playing how they want to — balanced, aggressive, and with pace. After a bad loss to the Cardinals in Week 4 and an ugly win against the Seahawks on a short week, the Rams are likely to want to get back to being who they are and rediscovering their high-scoring identity. The Giants defense is the perfect remedy for them to get back on track and I fully expect the Rams to take advantage of all of their advantages here.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

For a team that is, by all accounts and most metrics, near the bottom of the league in terms of talent and execution, the Giants actually play at a pretty high pace and throw at an above-average rate. While many teams who are talent deficient will try to slow things down, the Giants haven’t shown those tendencies and the loss of Saquon Barkley makes it unlikely that they will start slowing things down with the run game in Week 6. As of this writing (Thursday afternoon), Daniel Jones has had limited practices on both Wednesday and Thursday which gives him a pretty good shot at being cleared from his concussion in time for Sunday’s game. Assuming Jones plays, it is likely that the Giants will lean on him to move the ball through the air rather than using a backup running back to slam the ball into the Rams #1 graded rush defense by PFF, led by All-Pro defensive tackle Aaron Donald. 

The Giants will be without Kenny Golladay, but it appears that Kadarius Toney, Sterling Shepard, and Darius Slayton all have a good chance to play as they have all practiced in some capacity the last two days. Assuming at least two of those receivers are cleared, the Giants would have respectable weapons in the passing game which would raise their chances of success and keeping pace — at least for a little while. The problem for the Giants is that their offensive success will only serve to push the Rams to be more aggressive as well and they really don’t have the firepower to keep up. The Giants are unlikely to have much choice in the matter as far as how they try to win. They have a poor offensive line and a replacement-level RB facing a stout run defense, while the Rams offense will not allow them to settle for short drives and just trying to play a field position game. Attempting to move the ball through the air is the only chance the Giants have and, even then, they’ll need a few breaks to keep this one close.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

Both teams play at an above-average pace and this game has a very good chance of turning uptempo in a hurry. The Rams play fast and should have a lot of success here — moving the ball down the field quickly either through tempo or chunk plays. While the Giants will likely be forced to the air, even more so than usual, and also play at a fast pace. This sets the game up for a high volume of plays with the Rams likely to have success with that volume and efficiency and the Giants needing heavy volume to see success but they are likely to get that volume. 

The likely game flow here is that the Rams take control early and the Giants abandon the run, almost completely, relatively early in the game. The Rams are unlikely to totally take their foot off the gas until late in the game, at which point there is a good chance they have had an incredible amount of offensive success. I think the Rams are a sneaky bet to score the most points of any team on the main slate this week and this spot reminds me of Tampa Bay’s spot against the Dolphins last week — a severe mismatch that will lend itself to significant volume for an offensive juggernaut who is trying to “get right”. This could very easily be an “it all falls down” game for the Giants.

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DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>

• A Colts blowout is likely
• Jonathan Taylor has smash spot upside
• Wentz/Taylor/Pittman block cost $17,500 on DK
• The Colts D is $1,400 cheaper on DK than the Patriots D was last week in this matchup

How houston Will Try To Win ::

Football is a funny game, but the Texans are hilarious. Was that Tom Brady in a Davis Mills costume? Can Brady be in two places at once? I wouldn’t put it past him. After a historically ugly start to his career, Mills (or Brady with a lot of Botox), came out and slung the ball all over the Patriots defense which is known to confuse young QBs. His 312 yards and 3 TDs weren’t cheap stats piled up late, as the game was close throughout, and Mills went 21/29. Wow! Who saw that coming? Mills dressing up as Brady for Halloween wasn’t enough, as the Texans still managed to find a way to lose and extend their winless streak to four games.

The Texans draw a Colts team in Week 6 that is also 1-4, despite boasting a far superior roster. Given that the Colts just held the Ravens under 100 yards rushing as a team for the first time in years and have a strong DVOA against the run mark (ranked 2nd), it would make sense for the Texans to hope Davis Mills can keep injecting himself with Brady serum for at least one more week. Expect the Texans to try and attack the pass funnel Colts (30^th in pass DVOA) as best they can through the air.  

How indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

The Colts are a disappointing 1-4 having had playoff aspirations coming into the season. Frank Reich has long been one of the better coaches in the NFL and it’s easy to argue this year’s Colt’s squad is his most talented. He was even reunited with Carson Wentz who he made a success during his time with the Eagles. What happened?  The schedule makers didn’t do him any favors, starting the year with the Seahawks/Rams/Titans/Ravens in the first five games. The Colts are 0-4 in those games but have lost by only a combined 30 points, including a heartbreaking OT loss last week on primetime. The Colts are better than their record.

Reich has always been willing to game plan (amazing that game planning is highlighted as a special thing about an NFL coach) creatively attacking the weakness of his opponent. This week, his opponent’s weakness is obvious with the Texans rushing defense (30th in DVOA) coming to town. This lines up well with the Colts preferred method of attack, creating a highly likely game scenario where the Colts run over the Texans. There is no reason to expect the Colts to take a different approach unless forced out of their game plan which is unlikely in this spot.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game checks in with the lowest total on the main slate at 42.5. The total is low because only one team is expected to do any scoring. The betting markets aren’t buying Davis Mills’ disguise, and the Texans are sporting a pitiful 16.5 team total. The Colts on the other hand have one of the higher team totals on the slate sitting at 26. This sets up as a game where the Colts manhandle the Texans upfront, forcing them to abandon the run (they should do this on their own anyway) and letting Davis Mills try to keep them in the game. Expect the Colts to take an early lead and maintain it throughout the game, with real blowout possibilities if Davis Mills reverts back to the guy we saw before last week’s impressive performance.

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DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>

• This is a big game for the Bengals as they come off a tough overtime loss to the Packers.
• The Lions are lacking in talent but have been playing hard and well, giving their opponents a good fight every week.
• Both teams are in the bottom six in the league in pace of play and the team more likely to control the game (Cincinnati) is 22nd in the league in pass rate.
• Neither team has been taking part in high scoring games recently, but there are some underlying ingredients that could lead to a breakout game.

How CINCINNATI Will Try To Win ::

Cincinnati was one of the most pass-happy teams in the NFL in 2020, especially before Joe Burrow went down. It has been one of the bigger surprises so far this season from a philosophy standpoint to see them drop to 22nd in the league in pass to run ratio, through five games. Zooming out, it does make some sense as they try to protect Joe Burrow in his return from a torn ACL behind a questionable offensive line (20th graded unit by PFF in pass blocking). It appears they could be moving back towards a more pass heavy mindset, however, as Joe Burrow has thrown 35 pass attempts per game over the last two weeks after only averaging 25 attempts in the first three weeks. The emergence of Ja’Marr Chase as a blossoming superstar and the return of second year stud receiver Tee Higgins also likely have contributed to the recent increased pass rate, and in theory, these developments should make that more likely to continue.

Detroit is not good in any area, as they are bottom eight in the league in every DVOA category —  run and pass offense, as well as run and pass defense. This means that Cincinnati should be able to attack them in any manner that they choose. This seems to me to be the perfect spot to really get Joe Burrow rolling against the Lions 32nd-graded coverage unit by PFF. The trio of Chase, Higgins, and Tyler Boyd should be able to run circles around the outmatched Detroit secondary, and the Bengals must know that if they want to really do something this season, they are going to need to get this passing attack rolling. Finally, at full strength, and with five weeks’ worth of reps to sharpen things up, this spot screams for the Bengals passing attack to come alive. In their only other good passing game matchup of the year, Burrow went for 348 yards and two touchdowns against the Jaguars while playing on a short week and without Tee Higgins. Cincinnati will likely be more aggressive than we have seen out of the gate, resulting in more explosive offense early and more scoring opportunities late, when they can turn to their running game to salt the game away.

How detroit Will Try To Win ::

Detroit is actually doing a good job this year of making the whole greater than the sum of the parts. Lacking in talent in many areas, their receiving corps and secondary in particular, they have found a way to stay competitive. The 49ers jumped on them in Week 1, but they fought back and finished with a one score game. Their Week 2 game in Green Bay was much closer than the final score indicated for three-quarters of the game. Over the last three weeks, they probably should have beaten both the Ravens and the Vikings, while playing a tough, low scoring game against the Bears. Given their huge lack of talent, and obviously having no chance at making the playoffs this season, it is laudable how hard Dan Campbell has his squad playing.

The blueprint is pretty clear for the Lions again this week as they will try to do the same thing they did to the Ravens and Vikings:

• Bend but don’t break defense that holds their opponent to field goals
• Control the clock and try to extend drives to shorten the game
• Keep things low scoring and close late into the game and hope things break their way in the closing minutes

After losing another wide receiver, Quintez Cephus, to injury this week the Lions receiving corps has somehow become even less imposing. Their offense primarily runs through their running backs and TJ Hockenson, though Hockenson has also appeared hobbled recently. This approach should continue, with their 27th-ranked situation-neutral pace of play unlikely to change knowing their deficiencies in their secondary on the other side of the ball. One bright spot for the Lions has been their running game behind their offensive line, which is currently graded 12th by PFF in run blocking. They are likely to lean into this relative strength as they attempt to slow the game down and keep it within reach. The Bengals have the 7th ranked defense in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metrics, which should make things difficult for the Lions to consistently move the ball, but they may at least be able to control the clock and field position to the point where they are able to stay competitive in a lower scoring game.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The Bengals offensive approach and success early in this game will be the driving force on the game flow. The most likely outcome is moderate to high offensive success for the Bengals, resulting in the Lions increasing their pace of play and aggressiveness in play calling. As outlined earlier, the Bengals have been very run heavy but there are many factors pointing in the direction of a more pass focused game plan here. The likeliest game flow is the Bengals taking control through aggressive passing early in the game and then moving to a more run focused plan, as the game progresses due to the unlikely nature of Detroit being able to match their offensive output. No team has scored over 24 points in regulation of a Bengals game this season, but this week sets up as a high likelihood of the Bengals breaking that streak.

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DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>

• This is an interesting matchup with strength vs. strength on one side of the ball (Green Bay offense against Chicago defense) and weakness vs. weakness on the other side of the ball (Chicago offense against Green Bay defense).
• This projects to be a slow paced game as both teams bleed the play clock and have play calling tendencies that usually have the clock running.
• While this game is viewed by most as a clear mismatch (and it very well may be just that), it has huge division ramifications for a Week 6 game. A Bears win would put them at the top of the division, while a Packers win would effectively give them a 2.5 game lead on the field.

How green bay Will Try To Win ::

As discussed in the game overview above, this game is a big one for division purposes. The Packers have one goal in mind this season in what could be Aaron Rodgers’ last season with the team — winning a Super Bowl. The first step in that process is locking up the division. While they still have a long ways to go in that process, a road win at their current top competition would certainly be helpful. The Packers sit at 4-1 but could just as easily sit at 2-3 if not for last-second heroics in San Francisco and barely escaping in overtime from Cincinnati. It would be easy to look at their record and say, “this is the same Packers team as last year,” but that would be jumping the gun. Last season the Packers also sat at 4-1 entering Week 6, but their average margin of victory was 12.75 points (8.25 this year), and they were averaging 38 points per game in victories (29 ppg this year). While those numbers are still solid, it is worth noting that they are grinding out victories rather than smashing teams this year, something that is important because their output has always been dependent on efficiency rather than volume due to their plodding pace. Also, this year’s numbers are somewhat inflated by their Week 2 game against the Lions’ 29th rated defense.

What this all means for “how Green Bay will try to win” is that they should enter this game very focused and approach it ready to play a clean game. I don’t expect them to get “cute” with things (playcalling, personnel, usage, etc.) which means that we should expect Davante Adams to operate as an offensive centerpiece and Aaron Jones to be used as a feature back, even if he cedes 30-40% of snaps to AJ Dillon. The Bears have a top-5 defense in DVOA and are stronger against the pass (4th) than the run (11th). Still, this is not a matchup that should scare them away from their usual strategy of heavily targeting Davante Adams — who currently leads the NFL with a 37.9% target share. Simply put, he is not someone you can stop. You can only hope to contain him. Last week, the Packers offense combined for 57 total offensive opportunities (carries + targets), and Davante Adams and Aaron Jones combined for a whopping 35 of them — a 61.4% share. We should expect a very similar approach this week, with the likelihood of the Packers controlling the game against a less potent Bears offense potentially sliding more of that workload away from Adams and towards Jones.

How chicago Will Try To Win ::

Chicago is running the ball at a very high rate, especially since Justin Fields took over as their starting quarterback. Fields has attempted 57 total passes (19 per game) in his three games as the starter, a number that is unheard of in the NFL in 2021. It is unlikely that the Bears stray from this strategy this week as they will attempt to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field and shorten the game, hoping to win a slug-it-out game and emerge on top of the division. Even if the Packers take control, the Bears are unlikely to really open things up until mid to late in the 3rd quarter.

While the conservative nature of the Bears offense has drawn attention, only those who have watched the Bears games the last two weeks have seen the differences in how the offense operates since Bill Lazor took over play-calling duties. In Week 4, against the Lions, Lazor dialed up more downfield looks that took advantage of Fields’ deep ball accuracy and arm strength. Last week against the Raiders, the Bears operated out of the shotgun and spread formations more frequently while also getting Fields out of the pocket and on the move — giving him easier half-field reads where he has a couple of options, and if they aren’t there, he can run the ball or throw it away. It is not moving as fast as all of the Fields truthers would have liked, but the Bears are slowly but surely building an offense around what their franchise QB does well.

With Jaire Alexander and Za’Darius Smith both missing from the Packers’ defense, this matchup is not overly concerning for the Bears, and their usage of their all-purpose QB could keep them in this game. It is hard to believe it until we see it, but the Bears are likely going to have to lean on Fields here more than they have been if they want a chance to win. It is good to see that they are at least installing the concepts that are needed for that to even be a possibility. The Bears will still operate at a plodding pace and lean run-heavy, but they also must understand that they will need to score points to beat an Aaron Rodgers offense, and that should lead to slightly more aggressive play-calling than the snooze fest we’ve seen the last couple weeks.

Likeliest Game Flow ::

This game is going to be slow-paced and likely move quickly due to the fact that the clock should be running consistently. Chicago runs the ball at the 3rd highest rate in the NFL while also operating the 5th slowest offense in terms of pace of play (33.16 seconds between snaps). Aaron Rodgers is notorious for using as much of the play clock as he can to gather information and make adjustments to play calls, hot routes, and blocking assignments before pulling the trigger on the snap. The Packers also run the ball at a league-average rate, and when they throw, Rodgers is very accurate, meaning that most of their plays also result in a running clock. The result of those tendencies is that the clock will continue to run between most plays on both sides of the ball, and both teams are going to use most of their 40 seconds between each play.

The Bears’ defense is good enough that it should be able to at least contain the Packers offense from having the high-efficiency games they usually need to have offensive explosions. The Bears’ offense is so conservative that they will also not push the pace or scoring. The result is that this game should be controlled by the Packers, but likely not in a manner that they will run away with it on the scoreboard early in the game. There simply won’t be enough drives to allow an early offensive explosion unless they have a true outlier game, which the matchup and importance of the game make unlikely to happen.

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Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Mike Williams has yet to practice (as of Thursday). As such a massive part of the Chargers game plan, his absence would be a significant hit to the league’s second-most efficient offense.
• From the other side, Sammy Watkins has also yet to practice this week and should be considered legitimately questionable with a thigh injury.
• Keenan Allen against man coverage as the de facto top receiving threat is highly intriguing.
• Marquise Brown against zone coverage as the de facto top receiving threat is highly intriguing.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

We’ll start the Chargers discussion by taking a look at the injuries. The current overall WR2, Mike Williams, has yet to practice this week with a knee injury apparently sustained in the Chargers Week 5 shootout win against the Browns. On the defensive side for the Chargers, fill-in linebacker Drue Tranquill appears set to miss this week with a pectoral injury. Keep a close eye on the status of Williams on Friday as he is likely going to need at least a limited showing to suit up this weekend. Tranquill appears headed for a missed game, placing further stress on a linebacking unit already stretched thin. Not the best of news against the rushing ability of Lamar Jackson. The Chargers run the fastest offense in the league and hold the NFL’s tenth highest situation-neutral pass rate at 63%. Their 60% 11-personnel and 25% 12-personnel usage falls right around league-average, while their 18/20/62% target rates to running backs, tight ends, and wide receivers, respectively, fall right at league-average as well. Due to their heavy pace-up nature and second-ranked drive success rate on offense, they have run 71 offensive plays or more in every game but one thus far. They also rank second in the league in points per drive at 3.02. Yeah, this offense is no joke. Mike Williams’ game-day status is a big deal as he owns a solid 25.2% team target market share and a whopping 38.6% of the team’s available air yards to date, as one of the focal points playing the “X” receiver role in Joe Lombardi’s offense.

Austin Ekeler continues to operate in a 60-70% snap rate role with opportunity totals of 15/18/17/20/22 on the season. After seeing zero targets in Week 1, Ekeler has handled 25 targets over four games since, with no fewer than five in any contest over that span. His fantasy numbers are highly inflated by touchdowns, having scored seven times through five weeks. Joshua Kelley handled all of the change of pace duties behind Ekeler in his first game action of the year last week, taking the reins from the combination of Larry Rountree III and Justin Jackson. The matchup on the ground yields a below-average 4.13 net-adjusted line yards metric, while the presence of nose tackle Brandon Williams is a big hit to the pure rushing matchup here. That said, the Ravens have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields and Ekeler should be in line for another 20-22 running back opportunities.

If the Chargers are to come away with a victory this week, the heavy lifting is likely going to have to be done through the air. The Ravens play the highest rate of man coverage in the league and have shown some vulnerability with deep passing, allowing 12.0 yards per completion on the season (28^th in the league). The duo of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams accounts for an absurd 51.5% of the available targets and 68.6% of the available air yards in this offense, the latter of which is the most in the league for two members of a team. Should Williams miss, it is likeliest we see Josh Palmer step into Williams’ role as the “X” receiver, while Jaylen Guyton’s role remains mostly unchanged. From an expected volume perspective, Williams’ absence would most directly benefit Keenan Allen. We know the route tactician that Keenan is, and any boost to expected volume for him in man coverage is a significant fantasy boon. Tight ends Jared Cook and Donald Parham continue to split snaps at a near-even rate. Although the snaps are almost identical from a week-to-week perspective, Cook has run 155 routes to only 55 for Parham on the season. A missed contest for Williams is likely to create a significant boost to Cook’s receiving expectation here.

How baltimore Will Try To Win ::

The streak of 43 consecutive 100-yard rushing games from the Ravens came to an end last week in a surprise negative game script against the Colts, but this is still an offense that holds the seventh-highest situation-neutral rush rate at 46%, even with the absurd injuries sustained to the backfield throughout the season. Of the 30.4 rush attempts per game that Baltimore has averaged, quarterback Lamar Jackson accounts for 11.2 rush attempts per game with a unique combination of designed quarterback runs and scramble ability. We can generally expect a rather conservative offensive approach from the Ravens unless otherwise forced into increased aerial aggression (as seen in their stunning come-from-behind overtime victory in Week 5). Their moderate pace (18^th-ranked situation-neutral pace of play), heavy rush rates, and middle-of-the-pack defensive efficiency has led to a wide range of offensive plays run from scrimmage that should be considered highly dependent on game flow (three games of 73 or more with one game around NFL-average at 68 and one game all the way down at 58). Against the tempo of the Chargers, expect to see closer to the top-end of that range for the Ravens here.

Ty’Son Williams has struggled in pass protection to start his young career, paving the way for veteran running back Latavius Murray to emerge as the lead back for the Ravens. Murray has averaged 55.5% of the offensive snaps over the previous two weeks, which should give a good idea of expected involvement here. Behind Murray, fellow veteran Devonta Freeman and rookie Ty’Son Williams should rotate through for the remaining snaps. With a loose committee at the position, each is highly reliant on touchdowns for fantasy relevance. The matchup on the ground yields a moderate 4.38 net-adjusted line yards metric behind an underperforming offensive line. That said, the clear path of least resistance against the zone-heavy defensive scheme of the Chargers is on the ground; they are one of only six teams to allow more production than the Ravens to opposing backfields. Furthermore, consider the lack of depth in the linebacker unit of the Chargers a significant boost to the rushing expectation for Lamar Jackson here.

The trio of Marquise Brown, Sammy Watkins, and Mark Andrews combine for 68% of the total targets for the Ravens through five weeks. The significance of wide receiver Sammy Watkins’ status this weekend, who has yet to practice and seems legitimately questionable with a thigh injury, should not be understated. Rather than expect one player to fill any gap in playing time left behind by an absence from Watkins, it is likeliest we see a combination of Devin Duvernay, James Proche II, and Miles Boykin rotate through. Coming off a career week, Mark Andrews faces his stiffest test of the season in the likely coverage of standout safety Derwin James. Should Watkins miss, we’re likely to see a large portion of the pass game filter through Hollywood Brown here.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

Similar to the Vikings/Panthers game, this one presents a wide range of potential outcomes as far as game flow goes. Furthering this assertion is the somewhat unquantifiable aspect of a potential letdown game from each offense after emotional (and record-setting) comeback victories last week. Injuries to key wide receivers from both teams have the potential to alter the respective game plans here, both boosting expected volume for the remaining players and slightly denting the expected pass game efficiency. It is likeliest we see this game start relatively slow in the first half as each team experiences a “hangover effect,” with the final box scores likely reliant on second-half production. Because this is the case, and because both of these teams just recently went on offensive tirades, there’s an interesting case to be made that this game environment underwhelms relative to public perception. That said, the key injuries on both sides present a situation where the boost to expected volume from the remaining pass-catchers could be enough to offset any lack in efficiency. There’s a ton of moving parts and aspects to consider here!

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GAME OVERVIEW ::

By Hilow >>

• Slew of “DNP” to start the week for the Vikings, with all of linebacker Anthony Barr, wide receiver Justin Jefferson, running back Alexander Mattison, and wide receiver Adam Thielen held out on Wednesday.
• After missing Week 5, Dalvin Cook started the week with a limited session.
• Christian McCaffrey currently dubbed as 50/50 to suit up this weekend after getting in another limited session to start the week.
• Although unlikely to alter the overall state of the game, injuries could play a big part in potential fantasy appeal here.

HOW MINNESOTA WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The most telling stat to describe how Minnesota has run their offense so far this year is found when examining their per-down situation-neutral rush and pass rates. They fall smack dab in the middle of the league in pass rates on first and second down, but rank fourth in the league in pass rate on third down all the way up at 87%. This is very much a team that wants to set up the pass game through the establishment of the run, which is likely to become an issue in short order against a Panthers team allowing only 94.2 rush yards per game. Further uncertainty is introduced by the multitude of players with missed practices this week, including Justin Jefferson (DNP both days), Adam Thielen (DNP both days), Alexander Mattison (DNP then limited practice), and Anthony Barr (DNP then limited practice). The overall outlook for this offense is difficult to get excited about against a defense leading the league in opponent plays per drive and drive success rate allowed.

The ground game yields a disgusting 3.815 net-adjusted line yards metric, again for a Vikings team that builds its offense around the run. Not only have the Panthers allowed the second fewest fantasy points per game to opposing backfields, but they have filtered only 22 targets to the position through five games, or just over four per game. That’s not to say to expect low pass game usage from the Vikings backfield here, just that Carolina linebackers represent the second best unit in coverage through five weeks. Not much else to say from this backfield other than sledding is likely to be tough both on the ground and through the air here.

We aren’t done any favors with the pass game either. Both Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen have yet to practice this week and there aren’t any viable reports indicating their expected game-day status one way or the other. The viability of any Minnesota pass-catchers obviously is heavily influenced by the status of those two, which very likely could come down to game-time decisions. Justin Jefferson represents the best chances at aerial success as the one true hole on the Panthers defense is with the safeties in coverage (whose coverage grades are more so depressed because of the heavy zone this defense plays). Carolina ranks fourth in the league in opponent completion rate allowed at just 58.90% and also ranks highly in yards per completion allowed (sixth), which is a difficult feat to be good at both. 

HOW CAROLINA WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Carolina’s defense has been one of the more pleasant surprises of the 2021 NFL season. The unit currently ranks third in the NFL in points allowed per game, eighth in rush yards allowed per game, and have allowed the fewest pass yards per game on the backs of a low 58.90% completion rate allowed (fourth) and 9.4 yards allowed per completion (sixth). They’ve thus far leveraged the success of the defense by utilizing a slow pace of play (21^st-ranked situation-neutral pace of play) and balanced rush-pass rates (43/57). They’ve largely been successful on both sides of the ball despite injuries to two of their largest contributors in running back Christian McCaffrey and standout rookie corner Jaycee Horn. Following Horn’s injury, Carolina made big splashes in the trade markets by bringing in corners CJ Henderson and Stephon Gilmore in addition to the offseason acquisition of AJ Bouye. It is clear the emphasis of this team is on limiting splash plays and forcing teams to march the field, and it all starts with a heavy zone scheme with speed and athleticism on every level.

The matchup on the ground yields a modest 4.395 net-adjusted line yards metric, boosted by Minnesota’s bottom three marks in that regard. The Vikings have really struggled with running backs in the second level and the potential absence of Anthony Barr only serves to increase that deficiency. Consider the Vikings the softest matchup for this Carolina run game to date (yes, better than the Jets and Texans). That’s a welcome site for a team whose running backs haven’t averaged over 4.7 yards per carry in any game through five weeks. Running back Christian McCaffrey followed up a limited showing on Wednesday with a full absence from the media portion of practice on Thursday, so keep a close eye on his level of involvement as the practice week closes on Friday. In Week 5, Chuba Hubbard saw his first game with a snap rate over 55%, logging a 65% snap rate which he turned into a very CMC-esque 30 running back opportunities. It is fair to expect a similar level of involvement should CMC miss his third consecutive contest. Furthering the case for whatever running back starts for the Panthers is the heavy 23% running back target rate for Carolina over the first five weeks. Quarterback Sam Darnold rather quietly has five rushing scores on only 21 total carries this season which should be considered highly unsustainable. I say this to highlight the expected positive regression in the touchdown department amongst a running back corps with only one combined rushing or receiving score on the season. 

A defense that has ceded the lowest number of plays per drive and lowest opponent drive success rate on the season has led to a tight range of offensive plays run from scrimmage per game for the Panthers, with four of five games checking in between 71 and 76 plays. This has led to a tight range of expected pass attempts for Sam Darnold up to this point, with between 35 and 39 attempts in every game. Wide receiver DJ Moore leads the team with a 28.7% team target market share, but his mediocre-at-best 9.4 aDOT has left a lot to yards after the catch and touchdown efficiency. The good news is Moore is averaging a solid 5.1 yards after the catch per reception, which isn’t solely a reflection of his ability in that area as he is consistently schemed the ball on first reads on routes designed to place him in the best situation to maximize his skillset. This idea is in stark contrast to the Panthers of 2020 who primarily utilized Moore on deep routes and low probability passing. This is also highly important for us to understand moving forward and Matt Rhule has designed an offense to best maximize the talents of his playmakers. Furthermore, Rhule has demonstrated a knack for sticking to his game plan (an objective term to describe the relative aggression through play calling) deep into games regardless of the results on the scoreboard. With that in mind, the bulk of this offense revolves around the running backs and DJ Moore. Behind those players, Robby Anderson holds 31.9% of the available air yards through five contests, but his low 16.1% team target market share, deep 15.3 aDOT, and low 41.4% catch rate highlight the areas of the field (and routes) he is operating in. Terrace Marshall, Jr. has not enjoyed a level of success to match his preseason hype thus far, holding a low 6.5 aDOT, moderate 65.0% catch rate, and only 11.5% team target market share. 

LIKELIEST GAME FLOW ::

This one is a difficult game to get an early-week read on based on the wide range of potential outcomes regarding potential game flows (and injuries). The best way to put it is there likely isn’t “one likeliest game flow,” rather numerous with close to equal chances of transpiring. When we dig deep into how each team is trying to win games, it is likeliest we see a relatively conservative start to their Week 6 contest, with the Panthers dictating the ultimate path the game takes. I say that because they are the team best equipped to be able to dictate the flow of the game, while the Vikings are the team likeliest to be able to make up ground late if forced into that scenario. This creates a likeliest scenario that really only involves about a half of a football game, where we see a relatively slow start from each team in a battle for field position. The second half carries about as wide range of outcomes as there is this week and largely depends on the Vikings’ ability to generate splash plays against a defense designed to limit opponents in that regard. That said, the end result could appear like anything from a traditional slugfest to an all-out shootout, but the majority of any damage is likeliest to come in the latter half of the game. 

DFS+ INTERPRETATION ::

Hilow >>

Considering the wide range of potential game flow outcomes, the most certainty we get from this game is from the Carolina running back position, which currently involves a great deal of uncertainty with respect to Christian McCaffrey and his injured hamstring. He completed a full week of limited practices last week before starting the week with the same status on Wednesday and being held out of practice on Thursday. The coaching staff in Carolina has shown a propensity to side with caution when it comes to injured players, leading me to believe that if CMC plays, we should expect a full workload. Should CMC miss, expect Chuba Hubbard to see 65-70% of the available running back snaps and one of the largest expected workloads on the slate.

For game scripts that see Minnesota break through in the second half, DJ Moore and Justin Jefferson (two straight days of DNP) carry the most appeal and can be paired together as correlated plays (the optimal way to play either). Often we hunt for spots that leave you with multiple “outs” when it comes to expected fantasy production, and the story for these two receivers this week involves very specific game scripts in order to hit (and it happens to be a scenario where it raises the likelihood of each hitting together, hence the assertion of the optimal way to play them). As such, both Moore and Jefferson are likely best left to MME play.

It is difficult to not have interest in the remaining Vikings core players, but this game will serve as their most difficult test to date, which represents an interesting underweight proposition considering public sentiment and to-date production. We also currently have a good deal of unknowns surrounding this team with both Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson having missed practices on Wednesday and Thursday, while Alexander Mattison improved to a limited practice and Dalvin Cook improved to a full practice on Thursday. The big picture with the entirety of the Vikings is that we just don’t have enough information at this time based on potential available personnel.

Both quarterbacks are likely to be left out of my late-week condensed player pool in a game with such a narrow likelihood of blowing up. Finally, the secondary pass-catchers from the Panthers should all be considered wide range of outcome plays, bringing low floors and moderate ceilings.

JM >>

I love how Hilow laid out the likely slower-starting nature of this game. “Close game // second half football” is a great way to look at this one. It should be noted, of course, that just last week we saw a couple shootouts that were almost entirely second-half-based (and this game is number five (out of 10 games this week) on my list of “game environments I like”), but given that these guys are priced appropriately, the likely second-half-lean of this game makes “had to have it” scores less likely, while increasing the chances of disappointing scores. Speaking from a DFS perspective, I’ll be approaching this game with the following mindset: “stack this game, or leave it alone.” In other words: bet on this game shooting out; and recognize that I’m otherwise just trying to “blind squirrel” my way to a big score by attempting to cherry-pick appropriately-priced players from a “second half” game in which I’m saying (due to my lack of game stack) that I don’t expect a shootout.

The one exception, of course, is the Carolina backfield — with Chuba again set to make the “Bonus” section of my Player Grid if Christian McCaffrey is out, and with CMC set to be listed as a Light Blue Chip if he plays (being downgraded from “Blue Chip” only because of the slight uncertainty we would have around his health).

Summing up this game, for me:

“Game stack or nothing, with the exception of the Carolina backfield.”

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Different game, same story here with respect to key injuries, primarily on the Browns side of the ball.
• Although this game carries a high game total, the spread nature of each offense leaves us with less “outs” than public perception will dictate.
• Since each offense is so spread, the best way to attack this game is to attack the game environment, similar to what we saw in last week’s Browns game.

How arizona Will Try To Win ::

The Cardinals have added an extra gear to Kliff Kingsbury’s horizontally-spread offense with the addition of wide receivers AJ Green and Rondale Moore, and running back James Conner. Conner gives the team an additional red zone rushing threat to pair with quarterback Kyler Murray, while the presence of an additionally viable intermediate threat in AJ Green has allowed the team to attack downfield with greater precision and frequency. Rondale Moore is being used like a Swiss Army knife, frequently being schemed the ball in the open field over multiple levels. And let us not forget about DeAndre Hopkins, who retains his status as one of the most dynamic playmakers at the wide receiver position. Overall, the offense is built to play with pace and stretch an opposing defense horizontally, creating space over the middle of the field while wearing down the defensive unit.

The ground game for the Cardinals can best be described as a situational split, with holdover Chase Edmonds acting as the primary between-the-twenties back, while newcomer James Conner is utilized as the change of pace, short yardage, and primary red zone back. Standard range of outcomes as far as opportunities go typically leaves Edmonds in the 10-12 rush attempt range and four to six target range, with at least four targets in every game so far. James Conner’s workload is more dependent on game flow, but he typically resides in the 12-16 rush attempt range with minimal pass game work. As was discussed two weeks in a row on the Saturday pod, quarterback Kyler Murray has seen less designed rush attempts this season when compared to his earlier career, with between five to seven attempts in every game this season. We’ll circle back to this thought later.

The spread nature of this passing game (both from a theoretical standpoint and actual target distribution) has meant no pass-catcher has seen double-digit looks in any game this season. The likeliest outside influence to change that fact would be an injury to one of the primary pass-catchers (Maxx Williams doesn’t count) or a negative game script which would require an increase to the overall pass volume. Since neither of those is the likeliest case this week, we’re left with yet another week of six to nine expected targets for Nuk, five to seven for all of AJ Green, Christian Kirk, and Rondale Moore, and four to six for Chase Edmonds. The pace-down nature of their opponent is likely to keep the total number of offensive plays run from scrimmage below 70 here, leaving only a negative game as an outside driving force for increased volume.

How cleveland Will Try To Win ::

Note: This was written before Nick Chubb was ruled out. We are leaving this in here for the related thoughts explored…

It’s no secret that Cleveland would like to slow things down on offense through slow pace of play (30^th) and heavy rush rates (2^nd). A very bend-but-don’t-break zone heavy defensive scheme completes the game plan, which like the offense, has been largely successful up to this point. The Browns have allowed only 298.8 total yards of offense per game, which ranks fourth in the league. And while Cleveland ranks third in opponent completion percentage, they are all the way down at 23^rd in yards allowed per completion at 11.5. So while their defense has been largely successful in maintaining their end of the bargain, they have also been rather susceptible to splash plays against to start the year.

Both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt have yet to practice this week (as of Thursday), an interesting development for a team that relies so heavily on their services. The Browns attempt the most rushes per game in the league at 35, so an absence from either back would be a big deal here. The matchup on the ground yields the week’s top net-adjusted line yards value of 4.83, one of the largest disparities you will see this late in the season (after these metrics have time to normalize). In addition to the running backs, tackle Jack Conklin has yet to practice this week with a knee injury, possibly denting the matchup slightly. A standard week sees Chubb and Hunt split work in a 60/40 strict committee, with Chubb a good bet for 20-22 rushes (and minimal targets) and Hunt a good bet for 16-18 running back opportunities, with four to six of them being through the air. Should either miss here, it is fair to expect the remaining healthy back to see an uptick to his expected opportunity totals, with the most drastic likely to be Kareem Hunt should Chubb miss. Lots of moving parts to pay attention to here. With how poorly the Cardinals have performed along the offensive line, it may come as a surprise to find out they have allowed only one rushing score against the entire year, likely a case of the regular negative game flows they have forced from their opponents thus far (only 96 rush attempts against through five weeks). Basically, the lack of rushing production against is less relatable to actual performance than it is the pressure on opposing offenses created through their own scoring.

We pretty much know what to expect by now from the pass game as well, with Baker Mayfield typically capped in the 30-32 pass attempt range in even the most negative of game scripts. Wide receiver Jarvis Landry is expected to miss another contest, leaving Odell Beckham, Jr, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and Rashard Higgins as the primary wide receivers on an offense that utilizes multiple tight end sets at the highest rate in the league. As such, expect significant snaps from each one of Austin Hooper, David Njoku, and Harrison Bryant, assuming Njoku plays after a limited session on Thursday. No member of this pass-catching corps has seen double-digit looks in a game this season, with Kareem Hunt actually leading all pass-catchers in total targets through five weeks at just 21. Arizona cut down on the league’s average completion rate allowed by about 5% and rank in the top half of the league in yards allowed per completion.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

We’re likely to see a closely contested game throughout here. If this game were played at a neutral site, it would be a pick ‘em, but since it is in Cleveland, the Browns are currently installed as 3.0-3.5-point favorites. Injuries to the Cleveland run game are the biggest story here, which is likely to have a large influence on the fantasy utility of players from this game. Assuming both Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wills play, in addition to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, we’re likely to continue to see a ground-based attack built on established efficiency, behind the league’s second-ranked offensive line, per PFF. Considering each team is likely to experience some level of success in their preferred way to attack, we’re left with a scenario where we know pretty much what to expect from each team here. As such, primary players from each side should be utilized in rosters that play to the game environment erupting as opposed to one-offs.

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Game Overview ::

By MJohnson86 >>

• Las Vegas has been in the news for all the wrong reasons over the last week. Despite all the attention being given to the coaching change, due to the nature of the circumstances we should not expect any dramatic scheme changes to take place in the short term.
• Both teams enter this game on two game losing streaks after 3-0 starts against relatively weak schedules.
• Neither team projects to be particularly aggressive in this matchup as both teams have above average defenses and moderate offensive approaches and personnel.

How Las Vegas Will Try To Win ::

The Raiders last two weeks have been absolutely wild — even by NFL standards. Turmoil around their coach, consecutive losses, more turmoil and the firing of their coach, and now they get a road game against a division rival. No rest for the weary. Jon Gruden is out and new Head Coach Rich Bisaccia takes the reins after being the Assistant Head Coach and Special Teams Coordinator since 2018. This was a sharp move by the Raiders to go with Bisaccia as the Interim HC as it allows for maximum stability in all areas. Bisaccia will handle all of the head coaching responsibilities and, as a Special Teams Coordinator, he has had interactions with players on both sides of the ball, which will give him greater locker room rapport. Perhaps more importantly, it allows Offensive Coordinator Greg Olson and Defensive Coordinator Gus Bradley to keep their focus on their current responsibilities which should lead to a relatively unchanged product on the field. The Raiders have been good yet somewhat inconsistent on both sides of the ball. This stability should keep them from completely folding going forward. Usually, when we see mid-season coaching changes, they are due to poor performance by the team and the new coach will look to shake things up as they try to make a case for the permanent job and distance themselves from how the previous coach did things. However, the Raiders are not in that situation as they sit at 3-2 and have realistic playoff aspirations. 

Las Vegas should have a relatively balanced approach this week as they have turned to a more ground-based attack the last couple of weeks since the return of Josh Jacobs. The Raiders have a solid receiving corps across the board but none of their wide receivers stands out as an “Alpha” and, against a very talented Broncos secondary, they are unlikely to generate big plays or try to force their receivers to win difficult matchups. Instead, they will use their receivers in different formations and personnel groupings to stretch the Denver defense and open up the other areas they would prefer to attack. Denver plays primarily man coverage with some Cover-2 looks mixed in as well. These tendencies should give Darren Waller the opportunity to exploit mismatches against defensive backs (size) and/or linebackers (speed) when given man coverage and the opportunity to attack the seams downfield when Denver goes to their Cover-2 looks. Quarterback Derek Carr has actually been pretty aggressive throwing downfield this year so I would expect him to take a couple of strategic shots if for no other reason than to force the defense to respect it and allow them to pepper Waller with targets and use the run game and short-area passing to move the ball methodically down the field.

How Denver Will Try To Win ::

Denver plays at one of the slower paces in the league and has a league-average run-to-pass ratio. This matchup with the Raiders is pretty neutral as the Raiders rank in the middle third of the league in total defense DVOA, rush defense DVOA, and pass defense DVOA. There is no clear funnel from the Raiders defense and a usually balanced attack from the Broncos offense, meaning we can likely expect a pretty straightforward game plan from Denver. 

Teddy Bridgewater likes to spread the ball around and manage the game, acting like a point guard on a basketball team. The Broncos have targeted eight or nine different players in every game so far this season, making for a broad distribution of targets even after they have sustained some injuries in the receiving corps. After opening the season throwing the ball down the field surprisingly aggressively (against the Giants, Jags, and Jets), Bridgewater and the Broncos have been more conservative for the last two weeks until the 4th quarter when it was a 2+ score game. The Raiders have only given up 10 plays over 20 yards this season (3rd fewest in the NFL), making it unlikely that Teddy starts pushing the ball downfield again unless he has to. 

The Broncos should use their running game (and running backs in the passing game) a decent amount and have decent success against the Raiders defense that PFF grades as the 21st ranked run defense in the league through five weeks. The split workload makes it very difficult to project either back for a big game, but they should combine for success statistically and, more importantly to the Broncos, help them sustain drives and control the game. Once again, the likelihood of this outcome tells us the Broncos should be able to employ their preferred conservative, methodical approach in this spot and not have a pressing need to speed things up or become overly aggressive. The strength of their defense also makes it unlikely they will fall far behind the Raiders and be forced out of their comfort zone.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

Combined scores in the five Broncos games this season: 40 // 36 // 26 // 30 // 46

The Raiders have scored 23 points in their last two games and are unlikely to drive the pace and scoring in this game, making it likely that this game stays in the range of the other Broncos games so far this season (30 to 45 points). The Broncos are a solid unit on both sides of the ball and play smart, sound football by limiting turnovers, controlling field position, and limiting big plays from their opponents. Neither team plays at a fast pace as Las Vegas is right around league average in situation-neutral pace of play and Denver plays at the 4th slowest pace in the league. While the Raiders do pass the ball at a 64% rate (6th highest in the NFL), they are less likely to turn pass-heavy in this spot on the road against a very good pass rush and secondary. The Broncos are more likely to be able to generate big plays, but less likely to push the issue of making those big plays happen. All of this sets up for a relatively low play volume game environment with a low likelihood of very explosive plays that would turn up the scoring expectations. 

The best case for this game to turn into something more exciting would be if Las Vegas has some early defensive lapses that give big plays to the Broncos. That is to say, this game is more likely to be triggered by blown coverages, missed tackles, or other bad plays from the Raiders than it is from the Broncos going out and making the plays themselves. This scenario would force the Raiders to turn to the air with more volume and aggressiveness. 

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Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Two teams on vastly different trajectories as far as how they approach games.
• Keep an eye on the status of Trevon Diggs as the week progresses, who missed practice Wednesday with an ankle injury sustained in Week 5.
• For the Patriots, keep an eye on the status throughout the week of primary running back Damien Harris and the entirety of the offensive line.
• Not a ton to love for me as far as prospective fantasy production goes in a game I’ll be wagering American Dollars on the under.
• Post-letdown Jakobi Meyers, maybe? At bare minimum he should have volume on his side here.

How dallas Will Try To Win ::

After starting the year with a 77% situation-neutral pass rate in Week 1 (second highest in the league), Dallas has been the most run-heavy team in the league over the previous three weeks with a very Clevelandian 43% situation-neutral pass rate. On the season, the Cowboys lead the league in adjusted line yards (5.47), running back yards per carry (5.59), and second-level yards (1.67). All of that to say, the drastic shift in play calling and offensive design has worked. But (why is there always a “but”?), their Week 1 opponent just happened to be the Buccaneers, a team that once again leads the league in both opponent rush yards per game and percentage of pass plays faced. Their subsequent four opponents represent three of the bottom six in rush yards allowed per game, with the only outlier being Carolina’s eighth-ranked standing, and even then, Carolina currently ranks eighth in rush DVOA and fifth in pass DVOA (first in yards allowed per pass attempt). Keep this in mind for the remainder of the season as it is much more likely that offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is simply tailoring his offense to attack the path of least resistance in his opponents as opposed to taking the stance that the Cowboys are always going to be a rush-first offense.

It just so happens that their opponent this week presents the Cowboys with one of the most run-funnel matchups in the league as the Patriots come into this game ranked 29th in defensive run DVOA and second in pass DVOA, which means we can confidently project Dallas to approach Week 6 in a similar fashion as we’ve grown accustomed to over the previous four weeks. The matchup yields a borderline elite 4.93 net-adjusted line yards metric on the backs of Dallas’ top-ranked standing. Tony Pollard saw his highest snap rate of the season in Week 5, which can primarily be attributed to Ezekiel Elliott’s missed snaps with a rib injury. Expect the split between the two to regress to the 70/30 split range as far as snaps go here, with Zeke a near lock to land in the 20-24 running back opportunity range as the Cowboys continue to manage his workload with a healthy Pollard. That is likely to leave a solid 14-18 running back opportunities in Pollard’s capable hands, furthering the variance associated with a backfield highly reliant on trips to the paint.

Quarterback Dak Prescott has averaged just 26.75 pass attempts over the previous four weeks, and there is nothing in the matchup that is likely to force that number to increase by a significant margin here. Furthering the complications for the Cowboys, at least as far as pass-catchers go, is the fact that they have run 12-personnel at the league’s fourth-highest rate over the previous four weeks and all of Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Cedrick Wilson, Dalton Schultz, and Blake Jarwin typically land in the 50-85% snap rate range. Not only have they passed less, but Moore has mixed offensive personnel enough to leave all primary pass-catchers of little utility outside of multi-touchdown games (which has only happened with tight end Dalton Schultz over that span). With the running back duo typically combining for five to seven targets of their own, there simply isn’t a lot of meat left on the proverbial bone for this passing game for as long as we can confidently project their elevated rush rates to continue (with that being the case this week).

How new england Will Try To Win ::

Similar to how Kellen Moore has shaped and molded the offense in Dallas dependent on personnel available and weekly opponent, so too has Josh McDaniels with the Patriots. The bulk of that offensive game plan for New England revolves around the skillset of rookie quarterback Mac Jones, whose game is built around timing, accuracy, and game smarts as opposed to arm strength and mobility. This understanding helps us rationalize the low 7.5 intended air yards per pass attempt and low 3.4 completed air yards per pass attempt values. When we then consider the plethora of injuries and COVID issues along the offensive line, it makes sense that the Patriots hold a 70% situation-neutral pass rate over the previous three weeks.

The ground game has taken a substantial hit lately with the issues along the offensive line and injury to lead back Damien Harris, who did not practice on Wednesday with a rib injury sustained in Week 5. I’d tentatively expect Harris to go this weekend, but the bigger story is the four offensive linemen that missed last week’s game. Keep an eye on their individual statuses as the weekend approaches, as it is likely to have a significant impact on the way the Patriots choose to attack here. The matchup on the ground yields a low 3.945 net-adjusted line yards metric, which could theoretically be lower assuming backup linemen. Should Harris play, he is likely to lead the backfield in snap rate and opportunities in the absence of James White. Rhamondre Stevenson would be likeliest to step into any early-down work vacated by Harris, with Brandon Bolden on hand to handle passing down and change of pace duties.

What this devolves into is that the likeliest game plan involves a heavy reliance on the short-to-intermediate pass game. New England’s slightly below average 11-personnel usage leaves significant room for both 12- and 21-personnel alignments, with Jakobi Meyers operating as the only near-every-down pass-catcher. Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne, Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith, and even N’Keal Harry have seen meaningful snaps over the previous two weeks. Nelson Agholor leads the team in aDOT at 14.4, with every other member landing at an aDOT of 10.3 or below. With Meyers seeing almost 83% of his snaps out of the slot, he is the likeliest to avoid the hottest corner in the league in Trevon Diggs (assuming he plays). In a somewhat surprising development, Hunter Henry has run almost double the routes as fellow tight end Jonnu Smith through five weeks (133 to 70). That said, Jonnu has seen a target on 23 of his 70 routes, while Henry has only seen 26 targets on his 133 routes. The big picture here is the Patriots are quite comfortable taking what the opposing defense gives them and spreading the ball around as necessary. The matchup tilts away from Diggs, making Jakobi Meyers and the tight ends the best bets to move the football.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

Digging into this game confirmed my early-week suspicion that the game total was set too high. After writing the under up in my Early Week Line Inefficiencies piece, we’ve actually seen the game total increase by a full point to 50.5. Dunno emoji. I do not see the path to a shootout-style game here, with the likeliest scenario leaving the Cowboys formulating an attack built around the run game and the Patriots left to try and build sustained drives through a short area (and low upside) pass game. That said, each team lands in the top half of the league in a situation-neutral pace of play, but the heavy rush rate for the Cowboys and low per-pass depth of target for the Patriots leads to a game where splash plays are less likely. Both teams also reside in the top half of the league in drive success rate allowed on defense (fourth for the Patriots and 13th for the Cowboys), furthering the likelihood of stalled drives and lowered scoring. The actual likeliest game flow sees the Cowboys controlling the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, which should keep them biased towards the run once more. With the Cowboys controlling the pace and tempo of the game, the Patriots are likely to be forced to primarily move the ball through the short-area pass game.

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