Week 6 Matchups

Kickoff Thursday, Oct 14th 8:20pm Eastern

Bucs (
30) at

Eagles (

Over/Under 53.0


Key Matchups
Buccaneers Run D
11th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per carry
Eagles Run O
6th DVOA/12th Yards per carry
Buccaneers Pass D
15th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per pass
Eagles Pass O
7th DVOA/11th Yards per pass
Eagles Run D
19th DVOA/21st Yards allowed per carry
Buccaneers Run O
29th DVOA/32nd Yards per carry
Eagles Pass D
28th DVOA/13th Yards allowed per pass
Buccaneers Pass O
15th DVOA/6th Yards per pass


Week 6 and we’re already a third of the way through the season (wow). This one starts with the Bucs visiting the Eagles in a game with a 52.5 total and the visitors favored by a touchdown. Given how effectively we’ve seen the Tampa Bay offense so far, their high total seems eminently reasonable, but with all of the injuries on the Bucs defense, they have not been as stifling as they were last season. There’s room for optimism on the Philly side and potential for this game to turn into a . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 17th 9:30am Eastern

Dolphins (
25) at

Jaguars (

Over/Under 47.0


Key Matchups
Dolphins Run D
21st DVOA/8th Yards allowed per carry
Jaguars Run O
26th DVOA/30th Yards per carry
Dolphins Pass D
18th DVOA/12th Yards allowed per pass
Jaguars Pass O
13th DVOA/18th Yards per pass
Jaguars Run D
6th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per carry
Dolphins Run O
3rd DVOA/1st Yards per carry
Jaguars Pass D
12th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per pass
Dolphins Pass O
2nd DVOA/2nd Yards per pass


You have to feel a bit bad for London NFL fans, as the two games they’ve gotten so far are Jets/Falcons and Dolphins/Jags. Not exactly the cream of the crop. But I love the London games because they give us an extra Showdown to target! This one has a moderate 47 point total with the Dolphins favored by 3.


On the Jaguars side, we may be getting some clarity in their run game, as after something of a split backfield (by touches, not by snaps), James Robinson appears to have taken control . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 17th 1:00pm Eastern

Chiefs (
30.25) at


Over/Under 54.0


Key Matchups
Chiefs Run D
27th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per carry
Commanders Run O
16th DVOA/7th Yards per carry
Chiefs Pass D
5th DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per pass
Commanders Pass O
27th DVOA/27th Yards per pass
Commanders Run D
16th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per carry
Chiefs Run O
11th DVOA/11th Yards per carry
Commanders Pass D
32nd DVOA/31st Yards allowed per pass
Chiefs Pass O
6th DVOA/19th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>
  • The top game environment on the slate. This game left me feeling exactly as JM relayed in the Angles email on Thursday (quite clearly the best expected game environment on the slate, let’s not overthink things here).
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire suffered a sprained MCL in Week 5, leaving the Kansas City backfield to Darrel Williams and Jerick McKinnon.
  • In addition to CEH being out, all of cornerback Charvarius Ward, wide receiver Tyreek Hill, defensive tackle Chris Jones, and offensive lineman Joe Thuney have yet to practice this week for the Chiefs.
  • Washington’s pass-catching corps appears extremely thin, with tight end Logan Thomas out and Curtis Samuel and Cam Sims unlikely to play.
  • These defenses rank as the first and second-worst defenses in points allowed over expectation this season; both teams rank bottom five in the league in drive success rate allowed on defense.

How Kansas City Will Try To Win ::

Kansas City’s 62% situation-neutral pass rate through five weeks ranks 11th in the league, but, as we’ve explored in this space previously, they have one of the higher pass rates on second down. When we then consider the injury to starting running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire and the extreme pass-funnel nature of the Washington defense, we can assume with a great deal of confidence that we see inflated pass rates from the Chiefs this week. The beauty of this Chiefs team lies in their offensive and defensive efficiency metrics. The Chiefs rank first in the NFL in offensive efficiency and dead last in the NFL in defensive efficiency, a potent combination when considering their potential game environments. Finally, keep an eye on the expected status of Tyreek Hill this week, who has yet to practice.

It’s anyone’s guess as to the potential running back oppourtunity dispersal in the absence of CEH, but we’re likely to see Darrel Williams operate as the early down rusher with Jerrick McKinnon utilized as the change of pace and third down back. The matchup on the ground yields a below average 4.185 net-adjusted line yards metric and the standard 15-18 running back opportunities seen by CEH over the first five weeks are likely to be split amongst the remaining backs. I’d tentatively expect 12-14 running back opportunities for Williams with most of them being rushes and eight to 10 for McKinnon with likely a handful of targets. 

Like we alluded to above, it is likely we see increased pass rates from the Chiefs this week. Not only that, but the matchup tilts in favor of the pass as well as Washington has allowed a massive 11.6 average yards per completion and moderate 64.64% completion rate in coverage. Patrick Mahomes somehow ranks towards the bottom of the league in intended air yards per pass attempt this season, but the biggest draw is in the expected efficiency. Washington has surrendered the second most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position and second most points over expectation overall. Tyreek Hill’s status is one to monitor. His absence would likely mean increased snap rates for Byron Pringle, who profiles the best to attempt to replicate Cheetah’s routes and profile, leaving both Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson’s roles largely unchanged as 70-80% snap rate players. The biggest boost as far as expected volume goes would likely fall to tight end Travis Kelce, but we can expect Kansas City to continue to attack vertically with the remaining wide receivers as well. Should Tyreek play, it is likely he is doing so at a “healthy enough” level of health to warrant strong consideration. 

How Washington Will Try To Win ::

Washington’s balanced offense has been hit or miss from an efficiency standpoint with Taylor Heinicke at quarterback. I expect running back Antonio Gibson to play this weekend, while wide receivers Cam Sims and Curtis Samuel have already been ruled out and rookie wide receiver Dyami Brown is legitimately questionable. With every-down tight end Logan Thomas also out, expect a narrowed dispersal of volume in a matchup where pass volume should be plentiful. We spoke to Washington’s shortcomings against opposing quarterbacks earlier, well, Kansas City is the only team to allow more fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks and more total points allowed over expectation. Giddy up.

The matchup on the ground yields an average 4.345 net-adjusted line yards metric and should be considered a plus matchup for the Football Team. Expect Antonio Gibson to continue playing through a fracture in his shin, which is reportedly somehow not painful. Gibson has seen between 14 and 25 (first game of the season) running back opportunities in each game this year, which should be considered his standard range of outcomes. He is obviously more likely to land towards the top end of that range in neutral to positive game scripts while more likely to land towards the low end of that range in negative game scripts. Behind Gibson, expect the standard change of pace and third-down duties to fall to JD McKissic, who should also serve as the two-minute back and negative game script back. The Chiefs have allowed 29.6 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields, including filtering 34 targets to the position through five games. Considering the dearth of viable pass-catchers, it doesn’t take a large stretch of the imagination to envision a scenario where McKissic saunters into double-digit target territory in negative game flows here.

Speaking of the dearth of pass-catching options, wide receiver Terry McLaurin and tight end Ricky Seals-Jones should be the sole remaining every-down pass-catchers this week, with some combination of Dyami Brown (if healthy), DeAndre Carter, and Dax Milne seeing meaningful snaps. Terry McLaurin has surpassed 11 targets in three of five games and is highly likely to do so again here, while Ricky Seals-Jones saw nine targets in his first full game as the starter and is likely to pierce double-digit looks as well. Realistically, there is a scenario where the trio of McLaurin, RSJ, and McKissic sees 30 targets combined if the game script tilts the Football Team pass-heavy sooner rather than later. There just aren’t many healthy bodies remaining here.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

It’s easy to envision a game scenario where the Chiefs completely wipe the Football Team off the field, but equally as likely is this game developing into a back-and-forth, shootout-style affair. More important than the actual likeliest game flow is the idea that the Chiefs should be primarily attacking through the air. This is the main realization that affects the rest of this game. So, instead of a likeliest game flow, we’re going to explore the “likeliest plan of attack transferred to DFS decision-making tree”. Because the Chiefs are likeliest to attack primarily through the air here, and because we know they are likely to find success in doing so, we can make the conclusion that there will be additional plays available for both teams and that the Chiefs will be able to score fairly quickly. If the Chiefs are able to score fairly quickly, then Washington will be charged with keeping pace. The best way for them to do so is likely to begin on the ground but could turn away from that avenue of attack fairly quickly. If they are forced into aerial aggression (which they have shown the propensity and willingness to do) early in the first half, the vast majority of that pass game work is likeliest to flow through three players: Terry McLaurin, Ricky Seals-Jones, and JD McKissic. Although unlikely, a tributary scenario involves Washinton scoring on the ground early, which would set Antonio Gibson up to approach 20 running back opportunities and lower the likelihood of a boost in receiving usage for McKissic. 



DFS+ Interpretation ::

By LexMiraglia10 >>


  • KC & WAS have allowed the most points & highest rates of scoring drives through five weeks
  • KC & WAS have allowed the 2nd & 5th most yds through five weeks
  • KC & WAS have allowed the 3rd & 5th most first downs through five weeks
  • KC & WAS have allowed the 4th & 5th most pass yds through five weeks
  • Four points higher than next closest game total: LAC-BAL (51.5) // KC-WAS (55.5)

Patrick Mahomes:

  • WAS ranks 29th in defensive pass DVOA, and the last three QBs have all scored 4+ TDs
  • Mahomes TDs: 4, 3, 3, 5, 2
  • Only KC has allowed more QB DK pts/g than WAS (29.8)
  • QB DK pts vs WAS: 18.4 // 29.5 // 40.2 // 29 // 27.8
  • Mahomes DK scores when KC implied for 29+ pts on the road: 2018 (30.8, 43.9, 33) // 2019 (35.6, 21) // 2020 (20.6, 25.5, 35.3, 24.6) // 2021 (32.7)
  • WAS is facing the 5th highest aDOT, and has allowed the 2nd most completed air yds
  • Mahomes on 20+ yd passes: 8/20 for 288 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

Tyreek Hill:

  • Tyreek Hill has finished above 60 rec yds in 39 of his 52 full games since 2018
  • The final game scores of Hill’s 25+ pt scores since 2020: (35-9), (33-31), (35-31), (27-24), (33-27), (38-24), (33-29), (42-30)
  • Hill’s 2021 distribution of pts: twice over 40 DK pts and thrice under 15 DK pts
  • WAS has already allowed seven WRs over 80 rec yds: Keenan (100), Williams (82:1) // Shep (94) // Beasley (98), Sanders (94:2) // Ridley (80) // Callaway (85:2)
  • Slayton & Deonte Harris also finished just short due to dropped wide open TD & 1st Q injury
  • WAS has allowed the 4th highest success rate to WRs on the 2nd most WR targets
  • Only SEA has allowed more completed air yds than WAS
  • KC WRs on 20+ yd tg: Hill (5:201:2, 9tg) // Robinson (1:33:1, 3tg) // Hardman (1:26, 3tg) // Pringle (0:0, 2tg)
  • Since 2019, the quartet of Watkins, Hardman, Robinson, Pringle has produced just five scores of 20+ DK pts, and the two biggest came during the absence of Hill

Travis Kelce:

  • Since 2020: DK pts when Hill sub-15 DK pts: 22.5 // 30.6 // 22.8 // 26.9 // 20.4 // 17.7
  • Since 2020: DK pts when Hill 25+ DK pts: 27.9 // 28.9 // 29.9 // 16.2 // 30.6 // 25.6 // 6.3
  • Since 2020: Kelce has produced 70+ yds in 17/23 games, including 11 100yd games and 18 TDs
  • WAS has allowed 50+ yds to TEs in four of five games (40+ yds in 5/5)
  • Top TEs vs WAS: Cook (5:56) // Knox (4:49:1) // Pitts (4:50)
  • Kelce targets this year: 7, 8, 11, 6, 10


  • Williams leads McKinnon in rush att 26 to 1 through five weeks
  • Williams leads McKinnon in targets 10 to 3 through five weeks
  • Rush att without CEH in 2020: Williams (6, 10, 13) // Bell (11, 7, 2)
  • Targets without CEH in 2020: Williams (2, 6, 4) // Bell (3, 3, 2)
  • RBs with 10+ att vs WAS: Ekeler (15:57:1) // Saquon (13:57) // Moss (13:60), Singletary (11:26) // Davis (13:14) // Kamara (16:71:1)
  • Notable RB receiving vs WAS: Moss (3:31:1) // CPatt (5:82:3) // Kamara (5:51:1)

Taylor Heinicke:

  • KC is allowing the most QB DK pts/g (31.1) 
  • Part of this is due to rushing production allowed to Lamar (16:107:2), Hurts (8:47), Allen (11:59:1)
  • Heinicke’s last 3 games on the ground: 8:21:1 // 5:43 // 5:40
  • QB, RB TDs vs KC: CLE (0, 3) // BAL (3, 1) // LAC (4, 1) // PHI (2, 1) // BUF (4, 0)
  • KC has forced the fewest sacks in the NFL with 7
  • Heinicke passing in career starts: 306:1:1 // 336:2:1 // 212:2:2 // 290:3 // 248:0:2
  • Heinicke vs NYG/ATL vs BUF/NOR: 626:5:1 vs 460:2:4
  • Defensive pass DVOA ranks: NYG (24th), ATL (28th) // BUF (1st), NOR (6th)
  • KC ranks 31st in defensive pass DVOA

Terry McLaurin:

  • McLaurin vs NYG/ATL vs BUF/NOR: 17:230:3 // 8:108
  • After allowing the 2nd fewest WR DK pts in 2019 & 2020, KC is allowing the 14th most so far in 2021
  • Top WRs vs KC: Landry (5:71, rush TD) // Brown (6:113:1) // Williams (7:122:2), Allen (8:50:1) // Smith (7:122) // Sanders (3:54:2), Diggs (2:69)
  • McLaurin targets in Heinicke starts: 14, 7, 13, 11
  • 217 underdog WRs averaging 8+ tg since 2014 in 50+ pt total games are averaging 17.73 points
  • Some notable WR scores that have fit this criteria in 2021 (DK pts): Cooper (41.9) // Hopkins (26.3) // Jefferson (18.5, 29.8, 20.4) // Ridley (19.3) // Mike Will (36.2) // Kupp (30.6) // Adams (34.2) // Moore (34.9) // Metcalf (16.5, 26.8)
  • Since 2014, there have been just 9 instances of a WR averaging 10+ tg playing as a home underdog in a game with a 52+ pt total: Julio (38.1; 30.6) // Odell (23.4) // Evans (9.9) // AB (4.4; 14.9) // Thielen (26.8) // Hopkins (28.3) // Keenan (28.3)
  • All four scores below Thielen’s 26.8 (Odell, Evans, AB) came against the Patriots
  • A non-McLaurin WAS WR has yet to score more than 12 DK pts

Ricky Seals-Jones:

  • KC ranks 31st in both defensive success rate & yds/att allowed to TEs
  • TEs vs KC: CLE (7:120) // BAL (6:66) // LAC (5:57) // PHI (11:116:1) // BUF (4:118:1)
  • KC has allowed the 3rd most DK pts to TEs
  • Top WAS TE each week: Thomas (3:30:1 // 5:45 // 4:42:1) // RSJ (2:19 // 5:41)
  • RSJ has 4 & 8 tg in the last two games with Thomas hurt

Antonio Gibson:

  • WAS RB rush att: Gibson (20 // 13 // 12 // 14 // 20) // McKissic (1 // 4 // 3 // 7 // 2)
  • WAS RB targets: Gibson (5 // 2 // 2 // 2 // 2) // McKissic (1 // 6 // 2 // 5 // 4)
  • WAS RB total yds: Gibson (108, 73, 104, 75, 72) // McKissic (8, 93, 38, 59, 9)
  • Att:TD inside the 5yd line: Gibson (3:2) // McKissic (2:1) // Heinicke (2:1)
  • KC has allowed 5 RB rush TDs through five weeks
  • KC ranks 32nd in defensive rush DVOA
  • Of KC’s 705 rush yds allowed (4th most), just 424 of them have come from RBs (14th fewest)
  • A RB has topped 50 rec yds vs KC in three straight: Ekeler (52:1) // Gainwell (58) // Moss (55)
  • Outside of Gibson’s 73 yd house call vs BUF, Gibson has just 9 rec for 46 yds
  • McKissic has two notable receiving games in four Heinicke starts: 5:83 & 5:44:1

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 17th 1:00pm Eastern

Rams (
28.25) at

Giants (

Over/Under 49.0


Key Matchups
Rams Run D
20th DVOA/16th Yards allowed per carry
Giants Run O
31st DVOA/15th Yards per carry
Rams Pass D
22nd DVOA/27th Yards allowed per pass
Giants Pass O
30th DVOA/30th Yards per pass
Giants Run D
29th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per carry
Rams Run O
7th DVOA/8th Yards per carry
Giants Pass D
19th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per pass
Rams Pass O
10th DVOA/3rd Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By MJohnson86 >>
  • The Rams enter this game with 10 days of rest and now start a ridiculously easy stretch of the schedule as they face the Giants >> Lions >> Texans over the next three weeks — teams with a combined 2-13 record.
  • The Giants are a team in disarray in both performance and their injury situation, with 14 players currently on the injury report — many of which are starters.
  • The Rams offense has a huge advantage at every level of the field, while the Rams defense has struggled by their standards this season but has a huge talent advantage in this matchup.

How Los Angeles Will Try To Win ::

Matthew Stafford and the Rams should have their way with the Giants on the offensive side of the ball. The Giants rank in the bottom-10 of the league in DVOA against both the run and the pass, with their PFF grades also falling into that bottom tier category. The Rams play at the third fastest pace in the NFL and should certainly keep that pace up in this matchup against a defense that has looked in disarray most of the year. We can look to the Giants matchup last week with Dallas to give us a glimpse of what to expect from the Rams offense here as both Dallas and Los Angeles are highly efficient offenses that play at a top five pace and have playmakers at every skill position group and top-10 offensive lines. Dallas scored 44 points with relative ease as Dak Prescott averaged nearly 10 yards per pass attempt and both Dallas running backs averaged over 5 yards per carry. Last week the Cowboys went for over 500 yards of total offense and the Rams should have a good chance to approach that number as well.

The Rams pass at a league average rate of about 58% and there is nothing about this matchup that would lead them to do anything other than playing how they want to — balanced, aggressive, and with pace. After a bad loss to the Cardinals in Week 4 and an ugly win against the Seahawks on a short week, the Rams are likely to want to get back to being who they are and rediscovering their high-scoring identity. The Giants defense is the perfect remedy for them to get back on track and I fully expect the Rams to take advantage of all of their advantages here.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

For a team that is, by all accounts and most metrics, near the bottom of the league in terms of talent and execution, the Giants actually play at a pretty high pace and throw at an above-average rate. While many teams who are talent deficient will try to slow things down, the Giants haven’t shown those tendencies and the loss of Saquon Barkley makes it unlikely that they will start slowing things down with the run game in Week 6. As of this writing (Thursday afternoon), Daniel Jones has had limited practices on both Wednesday and Thursday which gives him a pretty good shot at being cleared from his concussion in time for Sunday’s game. Assuming Jones plays, it is likely that the Giants will lean on him to move the ball through the air rather than using a backup running back to slam the ball into the Rams #1 graded rush defense by PFF, led by All-Pro defensive tackle Aaron Donald. 

The Giants will be without Kenny Golladay, but it appears that Kadarius Toney, Sterling Shepard, and Darius Slayton all have a good chance to play as they have all practiced in some capacity the last two days. Assuming at least two of those receivers are cleared, the Giants would have respectable weapons in the passing game which would raise their chances of success and keeping pace — at least for a little while. The problem for the Giants is that their offensive success will only serve to push the Rams to be more aggressive as well and they really don’t have the firepower to keep up. The Giants are unlikely to have much choice in the matter as far as how they try to win. They have a poor offensive line and a replacement-level RB facing a stout run defense, while the Rams offense will not allow them to settle for short drives and just trying to play a field position game. Attempting to move the ball through the air is the only chance the Giants have and, even then, they’ll need a few breaks to keep this one close.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

Both teams play at an above-average pace and this game has a very good chance of turning uptempo in a hurry. The Rams play fast and should have a lot of success here — moving the ball down the field quickly either through tempo or chunk plays. While the Giants will likely be forced to the air, even more so than usual, and also play at a fast pace. This sets the game up for a high volume of plays with the Rams likely to have success with that volume and efficiency and the Giants needing heavy volume to see success but they are likely to get that volume. 

The likely game flow here is that the Rams take control early and the Giants abandon the run, almost completely, relatively early in the game. The Rams are unlikely to totally take their foot off the gas until late in the game, at which point there is a good chance they have had an incredible amount of offensive success. I think the Rams are a sneaky bet to score the most points of any team on the main slate this week and this spot reminds me of Tampa Bay’s spot against the Dolphins last week — a severe mismatch that will lend itself to significant volume for an offensive juggernaut who is trying to “get right”. This could very easily be an “it all falls down” game for the Giants.



DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Alex88 >>


  • Totals have gone over in 4 out of 5 Rams games
  • Totals have gone over in 3 out of 5 Giants games
  • Rams offense ranks 8th per PFF, defense ranks 1st
  • Giants offense ranks 16th, defense ranks 27th

Matthew Stafford

  • Stafford is PFF’s 15th ranked QB in passing grade
  • His ADOT ranks 11th, QBR ranks 4th
  • With play action, he grades out as 3rd best
  • Without it, Stafford ranks 19th
  • LAR ranks 4th in passing usage inside of the 10 yard line (54.6%)
  • Stafford’s DK log: 27.34 // 18.22 // 32.52 // 20.3 // 20.5
  • NYG ranks 26th in DK ppg to QBs (23.7)

LAR Passing Attack

  • LAR leads the league in 11 personnel usage (81%)
  • They’ve utilized 12 personnel at an 18% rate
  • Snap shares: Robert Woods 92% // Cooper Kupp 91.6% // Tyler Higbee 86.8% // Van Jefferson 86.8% // DeSean Jackson 25.7%
  • Target shares: Kupp 32.6% // Woods 22.7% // Jefferson 12.8% // Higbee 11.6% // Jackson 7.6%
  • Kupp has double digit targets all 5 games
  • He ranks 2nd in target share and 6th in WOPR among all WRs
  • Kupps DK log: 26.8 // 39.8 // 30.6 // 11.4 // 16.2
  • His 25 ppg rank 1st
  • Woods had 14 targets in Week 5, the highest single game total by any Ram WR and the third most by any WR in the league
  • He ranks 19th in target share
  • Woods DK log: 12.4 // 12 // 6.8 // 14.8 // 30
  • Jefferson averages 4 targets per game
  • His DK log: 16 // 2.4 // 8.2 // 21 // 2.6
  • Jackson’s highest total targets (5) came in Week 3 when Darrell Henderson was absent
  • He leads all qualified WRs in the league with a 21.8 ADOT
  • NYG ranks 13th against WRs (38.1 DK ppg)
  • Higbee averages 9.1 DK ppg on 4 targets per game
  • DK log: 11.8 // 1.8 // 15 // 7.6 // 9.4
  • NYG ranks 25th against TEs (16.5)


  • In four games, Darrell Henderson has a 62.4% snap share versus Michel’s 31.2% share in five games
  • He’s averaging 3.2 targets to Michel’s 1
  • In touches per game, Henderson leads 17.5 to 9.8
  • Henderson ranks 9th in goal line share and 10th in RBOPR
  • His DK log: 15.7 // 17.2 // 16.6 // 16.9
  • NYG ranks 27th against RBs (29.4)

Daniel Jones

  • Daniel Jones is averaging 20.8 DK ppg (tied for 11th)
  • He ranks 6th in PFF passing grade (86.5)
  • His ADOT ranks 10th
  • DK log: 22.38 // 29.46 // 16.54 // 30.78 // 4.82 before entering the concussion protocol
  • His status for Week 6 is not yet known
  • Mike Glennon has PFF’s 32nd best passing grade (61.0)

NYG Passing Attack

  • Through an injury riddled season, NYG has utilized 11 personnel at a 64% rate and 12 personnel at 25%
  • Snap counts: Kenny Golladay (52, 58, 48, 58, 24) // Kyle Rudolph (47, 49, 29, 37, 41) // John Ross (-, -, -, 28, 41) // Kadarius Toney (5, 19, 46, 49, 37) // Sterling Shepard (58, 64, 24, -, -) // Evan Engram (-, -, 39, 43, 50) // Darius Slayton (43, 39, 9, -, -)
  • Target counts: Kenny (6, 8, 5, 7, 3) // Toney (2, 0, 3, 9, 13) // Shepard (9, 10, 3, -, -) // Engram (-, -, 6, 6, 4) // Slayton (7, 6, 1, -, -) // Rudolph (5, 2, 0, 3, 1) // Ross (-, -, -, 4, 5)
  • DK logs: Kenny (10.4, 6.8, 10.4, 20.6, 0) // Toney (1.8, 0, 3.6, 13.9, 32.6) // Shepard (27.3, 17.5, 3.6, -, -) // Engram (-, -, 3.1, 7.4, 9.5) // Slayton (9.5, 14.4, 1.8, -, -) // Rudolph (2.8, 4.5, 0, 4.4, 2.4) // Ross (-, -, -, 16.7, 2.3)
  • Toney’s 13 targets in Week 5 were the third highest on the week
  • LAR ranks 23rd against WRs (41)
  • They rank 19th against TEs (14)

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 17th 1:00pm Eastern

Texans (
16.5) at

Colts (

Over/Under 44.5


Key Matchups
Texans Run D
2nd DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per carry
Colts Run O
9th DVOA/16th Yards per carry
Texans Pass D
23rd DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per pass
Colts Pass O
17th DVOA/15th Yards per pass
Colts Run D
24th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per carry
Texans Run O
30th DVOA/26th Yards per carry
Colts Pass D
14th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per pass
Texans Pass O
12th DVOA/5th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>
  • A Colts blowout is likely
  • Jonathan Taylor has smash spot upside
  • Wentz/Taylor/Pittman block cost $17,500 on DK
  • The Colts D is $1,400 cheaper on DK than the Patriots D was last week in this matchup

How houston Will Try To Win ::

Football is a funny game, but the Texans are hilarious. Was that Tom Brady in a Davis Mills costume? Can Brady be in two places at once? I wouldn’t put it past him. After a historically ugly start to his career, Mills (or Brady with a lot of Botox), came out and slung the ball all over the Patriots defense which is known to confuse young QBs. His 312 yards and 3 TDs weren’t cheap stats piled up late, as the game was close throughout, and Mills went 21/29. Wow! Who saw that coming? Mills dressing up as Brady for Halloween wasn’t enough, as the Texans still managed to find a way to lose and extend their winless streak to four games.

The Texans draw a Colts team in Week 6 that is also 1-4, despite boasting a far superior roster. Given that the Colts just held the Ravens under 100 yards rushing as a team for the first time in years and have a strong DVOA against the run mark (ranked 2nd), it would make sense for the Texans to hope Davis Mills can keep injecting himself with Brady serum for at least one more week. Expect the Texans to try and attack the pass funnel Colts (30th in pass DVOA) as best they can through the air.  

How indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

The Colts are a disappointing 1-4 having had playoff aspirations coming into the season. Frank Reich has long been one of the better coaches in the NFL and it’s easy to argue this year’s Colt’s squad is his most talented. He was even reunited with Carson Wentz who he made a success during his time with the Eagles. What happened?  The schedule makers didn’t do him any favors, starting the year with the Seahawks/Rams/Titans/Ravens in the first five games. The Colts are 0-4 in those games but have lost by only a combined 30 points, including a heartbreaking OT loss last week on primetime. The Colts are better than their record.

Reich has always been willing to game plan (amazing that game planning is highlighted as a special thing about an NFL coach) creatively attacking the weakness of his opponent. This week, his opponent’s weakness is obvious with the Texans rushing defense (30th in DVOA) coming to town. This lines up well with the Colts preferred method of attack, creating a highly likely game scenario where the Colts run over the Texans. There is no reason to expect the Colts to take a different approach unless forced out of their game plan which is unlikely in this spot.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game checks in with the lowest total on the main slate at 42.5. The total is low because only one team is expected to do any scoring. The betting markets aren’t buying Davis Mills’ disguise, and the Texans are sporting a pitiful 16.5 team total. The Colts on the other hand have one of the higher team totals on the slate sitting at 26. This sets up as a game where the Colts manhandle the Texans upfront, forcing them to abandon the run (they should do this on their own anyway) and letting Davis Mills try to keep them in the game. Expect the Colts to take an early lead and maintain it throughout the game, with real blowout possibilities if Davis Mills reverts back to the guy we saw before last week’s impressive performance.



DFS+ Interpretation ::

By LexMiraglia10 >>

Carson Wentz:

  • Wentz hadn’t topped 251 pass yds in four games until last week’s 402 yd explosion vs BAL
  • Wentz was returning at the front end of an injury timeline for a serious foot injury at the start of the season
  • Wentz has 2 TD in 3 of 5 games
  • QB TDs allowed by HOU: 3 // 2 // 2 // 3 // 1
  • HOU ranks 9th in def pass DVOA after facing Lawrence/Baker/Darnold/Allen/Mac
  • Pass att vs HOU: 51 // 24 // 34 // 30 // 30
  • Wentz pass att: 38 // 31 // 37 // 32 // 35

IND Pass-Catchers:

  • Campbell, Cox, & Doyle all have just one game of 50+ rec yds on the season each
  • Pascal has between 31-48 yds in all five games
  • Pittman yds: 29 // 123 // 68 // 59 // 89:1
  • Targets: Pittman (43) // Pascal (28) // Campbell (16) // Doyle (16) // Cox (15)
  • HOU has allowed the 9th highest yds/att to WRs
  • WRs with 70+ yds vs HOU: Chark (86:1), MJJ (77:1) // Moore (126) // Diggs (114), Sanders (74)
  • TEs with 40+ yds vs HOU: O’Shag (48) // Bryant (49), Hooper (40) // Henry (75:1)
  • HOU has allowed four TE TDs
  • HOU has allowed the 3rd highest success rate to TEs
  • Cox has out-targeted Doyle 9 to 2 in the last two games

Jonathan Taylor:

  • Backfields vs HOU are averaging 142.4 total yds; HOU allowed a league-high 190.9 yds/g in 2020 so that’s a positive increase for the Texans
  • Nine RBs in five games have topped 50 total yds vs HOU
  • Taylor has topped 50 total yds in every game, and 100+ total yds in three games
  • HOU ranks 30th in defensive rush DVOA
  • Taylor rush att: 17 // 15 // 10 // 16 // 15
  • RBs with 14+ rush att vs HOU: Singletary (14:79), Moss (14:61:1) // Harris (14:58:1)
  • Taylor (18) has just one less target on the season than Hines (19)
  • Taylor has two games of 60+ rec yds (60 // 116:1) in 2021
  • Taylor as a Home Favorite (yds:TD): 110:1 // 62:1 // 115 // 114 // 95:1 // 254:2
  • Taylor vs 2020 HOU: 13:91, 3:44:1 // 16:83:1, 4:12

Davis Mills:

  • In 10 Quarters vs CLE/CAR/BUF, Mills totaled 357 yds, 2 TD, 5 INT, 8 sacks, and HOU scored 16 total points
  • In 4 Quarters vs NE, Mills totaled 312 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, 3 sacks, and HOU scored 22 points
  • IND is allowing the most fantasy points per pass att in 2021 (per @TJHernandez), and they were allowing the most even before Lamar’s eruption
  • IND has allowed the 4th highest yds/att (9.0)
  • Mills pass att in starts: 28 // 21 // 29
  • Lamar was the first to throw for more than 30 passes vs IND
  • IND has allowed 15 pass TDs in five games

Brandin Cooks:

  • IND has already allowed 10 WR TDs in five games
  • IND has allowed the highest success rate and 3rd highest yds/att to WRs
  • Top WR vs IND by week: Lockett (4:100:2) // Kupp (9:163:2) // Westbrook (4:53:1) // Parker (4:77:1) // Hollywood (9:125:2)
  • Starting CB Xavier Rhodes & S Andrew Sendejo are expected to miss this game
  • Cooks targets on Mills pass att: 9/18, 11/28, 7/21, 5/29
  • Cooks in 10 quarters with Mills: 4:28:1, 9:112, 5:47, 3:23
  • WR rec:yds:TD allowed by last 3 HOU opponents: CAR (51:641:5) // BUF (63:558:2) // NE (58:803:4)
  • WR rec:yds allowed by IND: 60:866:10
  • Those opponents all rank in the top 8 for DK pts allowed to WRs, whereas IND has allowed the 8th most DK pts to WRs

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 17th 1:00pm Eastern

Bengals (
25) at

Lions (

Over/Under 46.5


Key Matchups
Bengals Run D
28th DVOA/31st Yards allowed per carry
Lions Run O
4th DVOA/5th Yards per carry
Bengals Pass D
21st DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per pass
Lions Pass O
9th DVOA/9th Yards per pass
Lions Run D
3rd DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per carry
Bengals Run O
22nd DVOA/27th Yards per carry
Lions Pass D
16th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per pass
Bengals Pass O
14th DVOA/26th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>
  • This is a big game for the Bengals as they come off a tough overtime loss to the Packers.
  • The Lions are lacking in talent but have been playing hard and well, giving their opponents a good fight every week.
  • Both teams are in the bottom six in the league in pace of play and the team more likely to control the game (Cincinnati) is 22nd in the league in pass rate.
  • Neither team has been taking part in high scoring games recently, but there are some underlying ingredients that could lead to a breakout game.

How CINCINNATI Will Try To Win ::

Cincinnati was one of the most pass-happy teams in the NFL in 2020, especially before Joe Burrow went down. It has been one of the bigger surprises so far this season from a philosophy standpoint to see them drop to 22nd in the league in pass to run ratio, through five games. Zooming out, it does make some sense as they try to protect Joe Burrow in his return from a torn ACL behind a questionable offensive line (20th graded unit by PFF in pass blocking). It appears they could be moving back towards a more pass heavy mindset, however, as Joe Burrow has thrown 35 pass attempts per game over the last two weeks after only averaging 25 attempts in the first three weeks. The emergence of Ja’Marr Chase as a blossoming superstar and the return of second year stud receiver Tee Higgins also likely have contributed to the recent increased pass rate, and in theory, these developments should make that more likely to continue.

Detroit is not good in any area, as they are bottom eight in the league in every DVOA category —  run and pass offense, as well as run and pass defense. This means that Cincinnati should be able to attack them in any manner that they choose. This seems to me to be the perfect spot to really get Joe Burrow rolling against the Lions 32nd-graded coverage unit by PFF. The trio of Chase, Higgins, and Tyler Boyd should be able to run circles around the outmatched Detroit secondary, and the Bengals must know that if they want to really do something this season, they are going to need to get this passing attack rolling. Finally, at full strength, and with five weeks’ worth of reps to sharpen things up, this spot screams for the Bengals passing attack to come alive. In their only other good passing game matchup of the year, Burrow went for 348 yards and two touchdowns against the Jaguars while playing on a short week and without Tee Higgins. Cincinnati will likely be more aggressive than we have seen out of the gate, resulting in more explosive offense early and more scoring opportunities late, when they can turn to their running game to salt the game away.

How detroit Will Try To Win ::

Detroit is actually doing a good job this year of making the whole greater than the sum of the parts. Lacking in talent in many areas, their receiving corps and secondary in particular, they have found a way to stay competitive. The 49ers jumped on them in Week 1, but they fought back and finished with a one score game. Their Week 2 game in Green Bay was much closer than the final score indicated for three-quarters of the game. Over the last three weeks, they probably should have beaten both the Ravens and the Vikings, while playing a tough, low scoring game against the Bears. Given their huge lack of talent, and obviously having no chance at making the playoffs this season, it is laudable how hard Dan Campbell has his squad playing.

The blueprint is pretty clear for the Lions again this week as they will try to do the same thing they did to the Ravens and Vikings:

  • Bend but don’t break defense that holds their opponent to field goals
  • Control the clock and try to extend drives to shorten the game
  • Keep things low scoring and close late into the game and hope things break their way in the closing minutes

After losing another wide receiver, Quintez Cephus, to injury this week the Lions receiving corps has somehow become even less imposing. Their offense primarily runs through their running backs and TJ Hockenson, though Hockenson has also appeared hobbled recently. This approach should continue, with their 27th-ranked situation-neutral pace of play unlikely to change knowing their deficiencies in their secondary on the other side of the ball. One bright spot for the Lions has been their running game behind their offensive line, which is currently graded 12th by PFF in run blocking. They are likely to lean into this relative strength as they attempt to slow the game down and keep it within reach. The Bengals have the 7th ranked defense in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metrics, which should make things difficult for the Lions to consistently move the ball, but they may at least be able to control the clock and field position to the point where they are able to stay competitive in a lower scoring game.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The Bengals offensive approach and success early in this game will be the driving force on the game flow. The most likely outcome is moderate to high offensive success for the Bengals, resulting in the Lions increasing their pace of play and aggressiveness in play calling. As outlined earlier, the Bengals have been very run heavy but there are many factors pointing in the direction of a more pass focused game plan here. The likeliest game flow is the Bengals taking control through aggressive passing early in the game and then moving to a more run focused plan, as the game progresses due to the unlikely nature of Detroit being able to match their offensive output. No team has scored over 24 points in regulation of a Bengals game this season, but this week sets up as a high likelihood of the Bengals breaking that streak.



DFS+ Interpretation ::

By LexMiraglia10 >>

Jared Goff:

  • Passing vs CIN: Cousins (351:2) // CHI (116:1:1) // Ben (318:1:2) // Lawrence (204:0) // Rodgers (344:2:1)
  • Goff in 2021: 338:3:1 // 246:2:1 // 217:0 // 299:2 // 203:0:1
  • CIN ranks 12th in defensive pass DVOA
  • Losing C Frank Ragnow for the season early vs CHI, Goff has now been sacked 8 times & lost 3 fumbles in the last two games vs CHI/MIN (6 & 1 in first 3 weeks)
  • CHI & MIN have the 1st & 2nd most sacks in NFL; CIN has the 7th most with 13
  • Despite all the sacks, CIN has actually generated the 8th lowest pressure rate (PFR)
  • DET may return LT Taylor Decker, although Sewell has performed much better at LT than he did at RT in the preseason


  • Tyrell Williams is still on IR and just lost Quintez Cephus for the year
  • St. Brown has been almost exclusively slot to start his career (79.8%)
  • St. Brown last two weeks: 6:70 // 7:65
  • Raymond had been the most productive DET WR (games of 50, 68, 46 yds) before having zero catches in W5
  • Top WRs vs CIN: Thielen (9:92:2), Osborn (7:76) // Mooney (6:66) // Claypool (9:96) // Viska (6:99) // Adams (11:206:1)
  • Underperforming WRs vs CIN: Jefferson (5:71) // ARob (2:24) // Juju (3:25) // MJJ (3:24)

TJ Hockenson:

  • Targets: 10 // 9 // 2 // 8 // 3
  • Yards: 97:1 // 66:1 // 10 // 42 // 22
  • Hock’s snaps have been trending from less slot to more inline
  • TEs vs CIN: Conklin (4:41) // Kmet (1:0) // Freiermuth (3:22:1) // Arnold (2:29) // Lewis (2:34)
  • CIN allowed the 6th most TE DK pts/g in 2020 (14.8), but is allowing the 5th fewest through five weeks of weak opponents in 2021 (7.5)


  • Rush att: Swift (11, 8, 14, 8, 11) // Williams (9, 7, 12, 14, 13)
  • Rushing success rate: Swift (44.2%) // Williams (58.2%)
  • Williams has earned more carries over recent weeks due to his effectiveness as a runner
  • Williams has rushed for more yds in 3 of 5 games
  • CIN ranks 7th in defensive rush DVOA
  • Top RBs rushing vs CIN: Cook (20:61:1) // Monty (20:61) // Najee (14:40) // Robinson (18:72:2) // Jones (14:103)
  • 57 of Jones 103 yds came on a single run with a minute left in 4th
  • CIN has allowed just 10 explosive runs by RBs on 100 RB rush att
  • Swift still has total control of the receiving work, with 35 targets to Williams 16
  • Swift has 5+ tg in every game (11, 5, 7, 6, 6)
  • Notable receiving lines allowed to RBs by CIN: Cook (6:43) // Najee (14:102) // Dillon (4:49:1)
  • Swift’s rec DK pts: 20.5 // 8.1 // 13 // 7.3 // 11.3

Joe Burrow:

  • Burrow averaged 41 pass att/g in 2020
  • Burrow’s pass att in 2021: 27, 30, 18, 32, 38
  • DET is giving up the highest yds/att (10.0)
  • Burrow’s yds/att by game: 9.7 // 6.9 // 9.6 // 10.9 // 7.4
  • Burrow’s one score of 25+ DK pts this year came against a JAC defense giving up the 2nd highest yds/att (9.5)
  • DET is allowing the 2nd most fantasy points per pass att in 2021 (per @TJHernandez)
  • DET has an INT in three straight
  • Burrow has thrown 6 INT on the season


  • Targets with all 3: Chase (7, 4, 10) // Higgins (5, 10, 7) // Boyd (4, 9, 5)
  • Top CIN WR score by week: Chase (23.9) // Higgins (18) // Chase (22.5) // Boyd (23.8) // Chase (30.9)
  • DET has allowed a 100-yd WR in 4 of 5 games, and the one they didn’t was only due to multiple easy Brown drops that would’ve pushed him over 100 yds
  • Those WRs: Deebo (9:189:1) // Adams (8:121) // Mooney (5:125) // Jefferson (7:124)
  • Chase has 50+ yds in every game: 101 // 54 // 65 // 77 // 159
  • Higgins had 10:118:2 in the first two games before an underwhelming first game back (5:32)

Joe Mixon:

  • Mixon’s volume (att, tg): (29, 4) // (20, 2) // (18, 1) // (16, 2) // (10, 1)
  • Mixon played his lowest snap count of the season vs GB due to playing through injury
  • Mixon rush yds: 127 // 69 // 90 // 67 // 33
  • Top RB rush yds vs DET: Mitchell (19:104:1) // Jones (17:67:1) // Murray (7:28) // Monty (23:106:2) // Mattison (25:113)
  • Jones & Mattison also added 40+ yds through the air and a combined 4 rec TDs, while Damien Williams finished with 55 yds, TD after Monty left early with injury
  • DET ranks 28th in defensive rush DVOA
  • Mixon’s 3 career games as Road Favorite (DK pts): 8.8 // 25.9 // 9.3 ::
  • 17:29, 4:19 (W 31-7, Dalton 286:4)
  • 17:95:1, 5:54 (W 34-23, Dalton 243:2:1)
  • 21:50, 2:23 (L 35-38, Dalton 396:4)

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 17th 1:00pm Eastern

Packers (
24.75) at

Bears (

Over/Under 44.0


Key Matchups
Packers Run D
26th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per carry
Bears Run O
10th DVOA/6th Yards per carry
Packers Pass D
27th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per pass
Bears Pass O
23rd DVOA/23rd Yards per pass
Bears Run D
4th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per carry
Packers Run O
17th DVOA/10th Yards per carry
Bears Pass D
17th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per pass
Packers Pass O
5th DVOA/10th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>
  • This is an interesting matchup with strength vs. strength on one side of the ball (Green Bay offense against Chicago defense) and weakness vs. weakness on the other side of the ball (Chicago offense against Green Bay defense).
  • This projects to be a slow paced game as both teams bleed the play clock and have play calling tendencies that usually have the clock running.
  • While this game is viewed by most as a clear mismatch (and it very well may be just that), it has huge division ramifications for a Week 6 game. A Bears win would put them at the top of the division, while a Packers win would effectively give them a 2.5 game lead on the field.

How green bay Will Try To Win ::

As discussed in the game overview above, this game is a big one for division purposes. The Packers have one goal in mind this season in what could be Aaron Rodgers’ last season with the team — winning a Super Bowl. The first step in that process is locking up the division. While they still have a long ways to go in that process, a road win at their current top competition would certainly be helpful. The Packers sit at 4-1 but could just as easily sit at 2-3 if not for last-second heroics in San Francisco and barely escaping in overtime from Cincinnati. It would be easy to look at their record and say, “this is the same Packers team as last year,” but that would be jumping the gun. Last season the Packers also sat at 4-1 entering Week 6, but their average margin of victory was 12.75 points (8.25 this year), and they were averaging 38 points per game in victories (29 ppg this year). While those numbers are still solid, it is worth noting that they are grinding out victories rather than smashing teams this year, something that is important because their output has always been dependent on efficiency rather than volume due to their plodding pace. Also, this year’s numbers are somewhat inflated by their Week 2 game against the Lions’ 29th rated defense.

What this all means for “how Green Bay will try to win” is that they should enter this game very focused and approach it ready to play a clean game. I don’t expect them to get “cute” with things (playcalling, personnel, usage, etc.) which means that we should expect Davante Adams to operate as an offensive centerpiece and Aaron Jones to be used as a feature back, even if he cedes 30-40% of snaps to AJ Dillon. The Bears have a top-5 defense in DVOA and are stronger against the pass (4th) than the run (11th). Still, this is not a matchup that should scare them away from their usual strategy of heavily targeting Davante Adams — who currently leads the NFL with a 37.9% target share. Simply put, he is not someone you can stop. You can only hope to contain him. Last week, the Packers offense combined for 57 total offensive opportunities (carries + targets), and Davante Adams and Aaron Jones combined for a whopping 35 of them — a 61.4% share. We should expect a very similar approach this week, with the likelihood of the Packers controlling the game against a less potent Bears offense potentially sliding more of that workload away from Adams and towards Jones.

How chicago Will Try To Win ::

Chicago is running the ball at a very high rate, especially since Justin Fields took over as their starting quarterback. Fields has attempted 57 total passes (19 per game) in his three games as the starter, a number that is unheard of in the NFL in 2021. It is unlikely that the Bears stray from this strategy this week as they will attempt to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field and shorten the game, hoping to win a slug-it-out game and emerge on top of the division. Even if the Packers take control, the Bears are unlikely to really open things up until mid to late in the 3rd quarter.

While the conservative nature of the Bears offense has drawn attention, only those who have watched the Bears games the last two weeks have seen the differences in how the offense operates since Bill Lazor took over play-calling duties. In Week 4, against the Lions, Lazor dialed up more downfield looks that took advantage of Fields’ deep ball accuracy and arm strength. Last week against the Raiders, the Bears operated out of the shotgun and spread formations more frequently while also getting Fields out of the pocket and on the move — giving him easier half-field reads where he has a couple of options, and if they aren’t there, he can run the ball or throw it away. It is not moving as fast as all of the Fields truthers would have liked, but the Bears are slowly but surely building an offense around what their franchise QB does well.

With Jaire Alexander and Za’Darius Smith both missing from the Packers’ defense, this matchup is not overly concerning for the Bears, and their usage of their all-purpose QB could keep them in this game. It is hard to believe it until we see it, but the Bears are likely going to have to lean on Fields here more than they have been if they want a chance to win. It is good to see that they are at least installing the concepts that are needed for that to even be a possibility. The Bears will still operate at a plodding pace and lean run-heavy, but they also must understand that they will need to score points to beat an Aaron Rodgers offense, and that should lead to slightly more aggressive play-calling than the snooze fest we’ve seen the last couple weeks.

Likeliest Game Flow ::

This game is going to be slow-paced and likely move quickly due to the fact that the clock should be running consistently. Chicago runs the ball at the 3rd highest rate in the NFL while also operating the 5th slowest offense in terms of pace of play (33.16 seconds between snaps). Aaron Rodgers is notorious for using as much of the play clock as he can to gather information and make adjustments to play calls, hot routes, and blocking assignments before pulling the trigger on the snap. The Packers also run the ball at a league-average rate, and when they throw, Rodgers is very accurate, meaning that most of their plays also result in a running clock. The result of those tendencies is that the clock will continue to run between most plays on both sides of the ball, and both teams are going to use most of their 40 seconds between each play.

The Bears’ defense is good enough that it should be able to at least contain the Packers offense from having the high-efficiency games they usually need to have offensive explosions. The Bears’ offense is so conservative that they will also not push the pace or scoring. The result is that this game should be controlled by the Packers, but likely not in a manner that they will run away with it on the scoreboard early in the game. There simply won’t be enough drives to allow an early offensive explosion unless they have a true outlier game, which the matchup and importance of the game make unlikely to happen.



DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Alex88 >>


  • GB is the league’s slowest team in adjust seconds per play (32.5, per numberFire)
  • CHI is the fifth fastest (28.4)
  • Per PFF, GB’s offense ranks 2nd and CHI ranks 25th
  • GB’s defense ranks 10th and CHI ranks 21st
  • OVER is 2-3 in GB games and 1-4 in CHI games

Aaron Rodgers

  • Rodgers ranks 18th in PFF passing grade, 8th in ADOT, and 15th in YPA
  • DK log: 3.32 // 26.8 // 19.04 // 24.12 // 23.76
  • Since 2014, Rodgers averages 22.31 ppg against CHI
  • CHI ranks 4th against QBs (16.9)

GB Passing Attack

  • GB uses 11 personnel at a 62% rate and 12 personnel at a 31% rate
  • Snap share: Davante Adams 85.4% // Allen Lazard 73.2% // M. Valdes-Scantling 64.3% // Robert Tonyan 61.1% // Randall Cobb 36.1%
  • Target share: Adams 35.9% // Tonyan 10% // MVS 9.4% // Cobb 8.2% // Lazard 5.9%
  • Adams ranks 1st in targets, 1st in air yards, 1st in target share, 4th in air yards market share, and 1st in WOPR among all players
  • His 24.2 DK ppg rank 4th among WRs
  • In 14 games against CHI, Adams has averaged 14.81 DK pts
  • Adams DK log this year: 10.6 // 23.1 // 34.2 // 12.4 // 40.6
  • In his last 10 games against CHI as a Packer, Cobb averages 16.79 DK pts
  • Cobb’s DK log this year: 4.3 // 5.6 // 0 // 23.9 // 5
  • Cobb has an 81.2% slot usage
  • Stat lines for opposing team’s primary slot WRs against CHI: Cooper Kupp 7/9-108-1 // Tyler Boyd 7/9-73-0 // Rashard Higgins 2/2-24-0 // Amon-Ra St. Brown 6/8-70-0 // Hunter Renfrow 6/8-56-0
  • Lazard’s DK log: 3.6 // 0 // 5.2 // 5.3 // 2.6
  • CHI ranks 24th in DK ppg allowed to WRs (41)
  • Tonyan’s DK log: 2.8 // 14.2 // 1.6 // 2.8 // 1.8
  • CHI ranks 6th against TEs (8.2)


  • Aaron Jones has a 64.8% snap share this season (51.88% last year)
  • He’s averaging 3.8 targets (4.5 last year)
  • He’s averaging 17.4 touches (17.7 last year)
  • Aaron’s DK log: 4.2 // 41.5 // 17.6 // 11.9 // 17.9
  • AJ Dillon has a 32.1% snap share, 2 targets per game (after 4 in Week 5), and 9.4 touches per game
  • Dillon’s DK log: 3.6 // 3.6 // 4.6 // 10.7 // 17.9
  • CHI ranks 7th against RBs (20.2)

Justin Fields

  • Fields ranks 32nd in PFF passing grade
  • His 10.0 ADOT is tied for third with Jameis Winston
  • His 6.4 YPA ranks 33rd
  • He’s had only three rushing attempts each of his three starts
  • Through three starts, he’s averaging just 7.01 DK ppg
  • DK log: 3.92 // 8.26 // 8.84
  • GB ranks 15th against QBs (20.9)

CHI Passing Attack

  • CHI uses 11 personnel at a 65% rate and 12 personnel at a 12% rate
  • Snap shares: Darnell Mooney 86.7% // Cole Kmet 82.7% // Allen Robinson 82.4% // Damiere Byrd 46.8% // Marquise Goodwin 39.9%
  • Target shares: Mooney 25.4% // Robinson 23.8% // Kmet 15.6% // Goodwin 9.8%
  • Mooney ranks 22nd in target share, 19th in air yard market share, and 19th in WOPR among all wideouts
  • DK log: 7.6 // 12.6 // 1.9 // 21.5 // 6.5
  • Robinson averaged over 16 DK ppg in both 2019 and 2020
  • This season he’s averaging only 8.22 pts
  • DK log: 9.5 // 10.4 // 4.7 // 9.3 // 7.2
  • Goodwin hasn’t had over 15 DK pts since September 2019
  • GB ranks 10th against WRs (34.7)
  • Kmet scored 9.2 pts against the Rams in Week 1
  • He’s scored less than 5 since then
  • GB ranks 21st against TEs (14.6)


  • David Montgomery dominated snaps for four weeks but had an even split in targets with Damien Williams
  • In Week 5 without Montgomery, Damien had 31 snaps to Khalil Herbert’s 34
  • Damien had all 3 RB targets
  • Damien and Khalil tied with 18 touches, but Damien had the only RB score
  • Damien had 3 goal line rushes to Khalil’s 1
  • GB ranks 16th in DK ppg allowed to RBs (24.8)

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 17th 1:00pm Eastern

Chargers (
24) at

Ravens (

Over/Under 51.0


Key Matchups
Chargers Run D
22nd DVOA/12th Yards allowed per carry
Ravens Run O
1st DVOA/3rd Yards per carry
Chargers Pass D
30th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per pass
Ravens Pass O
4th DVOA/4th Yards per pass
Ravens Run D
7th DVOA/27th Yards allowed per carry
Chargers Run O
28th DVOA/28th Yards per carry
Ravens Pass D
1st DVOA/1st Yards allowed per pass
Chargers Pass O
16th DVOA/21st Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • Mike Williams has yet to practice (as of Thursday). As such a massive part of the Chargers game plan, his absence would be a significant hit to the league’s second-most efficient offense.
  • From the other side, Sammy Watkins has also yet to practice this week and should be considered legitimately questionable with a thigh injury.
  • Keenan Allen against man coverage as the de facto top receiving threat is highly intriguing.
  • Marquise Brown against zone coverage as the de facto top receiving threat is highly intriguing.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

We’ll start the Chargers discussion by taking a look at the injuries. The current overall WR2, Mike Williams, has yet to practice this week with a knee injury apparently sustained in the Chargers Week 5 shootout win against the Browns. On the defensive side for the Chargers, fill-in linebacker Drue Tranquill appears set to miss this week with a pectoral injury. Keep a close eye on the status of Williams on Friday as he is likely going to need at least a limited showing to suit up this weekend. Tranquill appears headed for a missed game, placing further stress on a linebacking unit already stretched thin. Not the best of news against the rushing ability of Lamar Jackson. The Chargers run the fastest offense in the league and hold the NFL’s tenth highest situation-neutral pass rate at 63%. Their 60% 11-personnel and 25% 12-personnel usage falls right around league-average, while their 18/20/62% target rates to running backs, tight ends, and wide receivers, respectively, fall right at league-average as well. Due to their heavy pace-up nature and second-ranked drive success rate on offense, they have run 71 offensive plays or more in every game but one thus far. They also rank second in the league in points per drive at 3.02. Yeah, this offense is no joke. Mike Williams’ game-day status is a big deal as he owns a solid 25.2% team target market share and a whopping 38.6% of the team’s available air yards to date, as one of the focal points playing the “X” receiver role in Joe Lombardi’s offense.

Austin Ekeler continues to operate in a 60-70% snap rate role with opportunity totals of 15/18/17/20/22 on the season. After seeing zero targets in Week 1, Ekeler has handled 25 targets over four games since, with no fewer than five in any contest over that span. His fantasy numbers are highly inflated by touchdowns, having scored seven times through five weeks. Joshua Kelley handled all of the change of pace duties behind Ekeler in his first game action of the year last week, taking the reins from the combination of Larry Rountree III and Justin Jackson. The matchup on the ground yields a below-average 4.13 net-adjusted line yards metric, while the presence of nose tackle Brandon Williams is a big hit to the pure rushing matchup here. That said, the Ravens have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields and Ekeler should be in line for another 20-22 running back opportunities.

If the Chargers are to come away with a victory this week, the heavy lifting is likely going to have to be done through the air. The Ravens play the highest rate of man coverage in the league and have shown some vulnerability with deep passing, allowing 12.0 yards per completion on the season (28th in the league). The duo of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams accounts for an absurd 51.5% of the available targets and 68.6% of the available air yards in this offense, the latter of which is the most in the league for two members of a team. Should Williams miss, it is likeliest we see Josh Palmer step into Williams’ role as the “X” receiver, while Jaylen Guyton’s role remains mostly unchanged. From an expected volume perspective, Williams’ absence would most directly benefit Keenan Allen. We know the route tactician that Keenan is, and any boost to expected volume for him in man coverage is a significant fantasy boon. Tight ends Jared Cook and Donald Parham continue to split snaps at a near-even rate. Although the snaps are almost identical from a week-to-week perspective, Cook has run 155 routes to only 55 for Parham on the season. A missed contest for Williams is likely to create a significant boost to Cook’s receiving expectation here.

How baltimore Will Try To Win ::

The streak of 43 consecutive 100-yard rushing games from the Ravens came to an end last week in a surprise negative game script against the Colts, but this is still an offense that holds the seventh-highest situation-neutral rush rate at 46%, even with the absurd injuries sustained to the backfield throughout the season. Of the 30.4 rush attempts per game that Baltimore has averaged, quarterback Lamar Jackson accounts for 11.2 rush attempts per game with a unique combination of designed quarterback runs and scramble ability. We can generally expect a rather conservative offensive approach from the Ravens unless otherwise forced into increased aerial aggression (as seen in their stunning come-from-behind overtime victory in Week 5). Their moderate pace (18th-ranked situation-neutral pace of play), heavy rush rates, and middle-of-the-pack defensive efficiency has led to a wide range of offensive plays run from scrimmage that should be considered highly dependent on game flow (three games of 73 or more with one game around NFL-average at 68 and one game all the way down at 58). Against the tempo of the Chargers, expect to see closer to the top-end of that range for the Ravens here.

Ty’Son Williams has struggled in pass protection to start his young career, paving the way for veteran running back Latavius Murray to emerge as the lead back for the Ravens. Murray has averaged 55.5% of the offensive snaps over the previous two weeks, which should give a good idea of expected involvement here. Behind Murray, fellow veteran Devonta Freeman and rookie Ty’Son Williams should rotate through for the remaining snaps. With a loose committee at the position, each is highly reliant on touchdowns for fantasy relevance. The matchup on the ground yields a moderate 4.38 net-adjusted line yards metric behind an underperforming offensive line. That said, the clear path of least resistance against the zone-heavy defensive scheme of the Chargers is on the ground; they are one of only six teams to allow more production than the Ravens to opposing backfields. Furthermore, consider the lack of depth in the linebacker unit of the Chargers a significant boost to the rushing expectation for Lamar Jackson here.

The trio of Marquise Brown, Sammy Watkins, and Mark Andrews combine for 68% of the total targets for the Ravens through five weeks. The significance of wide receiver Sammy Watkins’ status this weekend, who has yet to practice and seems legitimately questionable with a thigh injury, should not be understated. Rather than expect one player to fill any gap in playing time left behind by an absence from Watkins, it is likeliest we see a combination of Devin Duvernay, James Proche II, and Miles Boykin rotate through. Coming off a career week, Mark Andrews faces his stiffest test of the season in the likely coverage of standout safety Derwin James. Should Watkins miss, we’re likely to see a large portion of the pass game filter through Hollywood Brown here.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

Similar to the Vikings/Panthers game, this one presents a wide range of potential outcomes as far as game flow goes. Furthering this assertion is the somewhat unquantifiable aspect of a potential letdown game from each offense after emotional (and record-setting) comeback victories last week. Injuries to key wide receivers from both teams have the potential to alter the respective game plans here, both boosting expected volume for the remaining players and slightly denting the expected pass game efficiency. It is likeliest we see this game start relatively slow in the first half as each team experiences a “hangover effect,” with the final box scores likely reliant on second-half production. Because this is the case, and because both of these teams just recently went on offensive tirades, there’s an interesting case to be made that this game environment underwhelms relative to public perception. That said, the key injuries on both sides present a situation where the boost to expected volume from the remaining pass-catchers could be enough to offset any lack in efficiency. There’s a ton of moving parts and aspects to consider here!



Tributaries ::

DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Alex88 >>


  • 3rd highest total of Week 6
  • Per PFF, LAC ranks 13th on offense & 16th on defense
  • BAL ranks 12th on offense & 14th on defense
  • BAL is 2-3 ATS
  • BAL ranks 4th in rushing yards, 6th in passing yards, and 1st in total yards
  • LAC is 4-1 ATS
  • LAC ranks 17th in rushing yards, 3rd in passing yards, and 7th in total yards

Justin Herbert

  • Herbert ranks 4th in PFF passing grade (87.6)
  • In 19 career games, Herbert averages 25.14 DK ppg
  • He exceeds his salary based expected output by an average of +4.06 pts with a 63.2% consistency
  • His 27.2 DK ppg this season ranks 5th
  • Tournament winning scores from Herbert’s 19 career games: 41.48 // 30.74 // 30.96 // 35.98 // 30.84 // 45.82
  • BAL is middle of the pack in PPG to QBs, ranking 16th (21 ppg)

LAC Passing Attack

  • LAC has utilized 11 personnel at a 60% rate and 12 personnel at 25%, both figures just about league average (58% and 22%)
  • Snap shares: Keenan Allen 87.2% // Mike Williams 77.4% // Jalen Guyton 64.9% // Jared Cook 60.9% // Donald Parham 50.3%
  • Target shares: Keenan 25.5% // Mike 24.5% // Cook 12.5% // Guyton 6.2% // Parham 3.4%
  • DK logs: Keenan (22, 17.8, 19, 10.6, 13.5) // Mike (22.2, 22.1, 36.2, 2.1, 39.5) // Guyton (7.9, 4.2, 0.3, 3.9, 5.5) // Cook (10.6, 5.8, 4.7, 19, 3.9) // Parham (2.3, 6.7, 12.7, 2.9, 12.9)
  • Keenan’s 16.6 ppg rank just below John Ross and just above Brandin Cooks
  • Keenan ranks 21st in air yards, 13th in target share, and 21st in WOPR (per Koalaty Stats)
  • Mike ranks 2nd in PPG with 24.4
  • Mike ranks 7th in air yards, 11th in target share, 11th in air yard market share, and 12th in WOPR
  • BAL ranks 9th in DK ppg allowed to WRs (33.4)
  • Among all TEs, Cook ranks 7th in air yards, 24th in target share, 21st in air yard market share, and 19th in WOPR
  • Parham leads Cook in TDs, 2-1
  • BAL ranks 31st in DK ppg allowed to TEs (20)

Austin Ekeler

  • Ekeler leads the RBs with a 64.9% snap share, 12% target share, and 18 touches per game (Rountree is 2nd in touches with 5 per game)
  • Ekeler’s 25 total targets rank 5th among all RBs, despite receiving zero targets in Week 1, his target share ranks 9th, and his RBOPR ranks 15th
  • Ekeler’s 24.66 DK ppg ranks 2nd behind only Derrick Henry
  • DK log: 11.7 // 22.5 // 22.7 // 32.5 // 33.9
  • BAL ranks 28th in DK ppg allowed to RBs (29.6)

Lamar Jackson

  • During Lamar’s 2019 MVP season, he averaged 29.4 DK ppg
  • Per game, he averaged 26.7 passing attempts for 208.5 yards and 2.4 TDs & 11.7 rushing attempts for 80.4 yards and 0.5 TDs
  • Through five games, Lamar is averaging 29.2 DK ppg (second only to Tom Brady’s 29.3)
  • Per game, he’s averaging 33.4 passing attempts for 303.8 yards and 1.6 TDs & 11.2 rushing attempts for 68.2 yards and 0.4 TDs
  • Lamar ranks 5th in PFF passing grade
  • He ranks 1st in explosive pass rate
  • His 11.0 YPA leads all QBs
  • DK log: 20 // 37.26 // 20.28 // 22.44 // 45.88
  • LAC ranks 8th in DK ppg to QBs (17.2)

BAL Passing Attack

  • Baltimore’s usage of 22 personnel (21%) ranks first by a significant margin. Next closest, ATL, has a 12% rate and league average is 3%
  • They also lead in 20 personnel with 12% (average is 1% and 21 teams have yet to utilize it)
  • 11 personnel usage is 25% lower than league average and 12 personnel is 17% lower
  • Snap shares: Mark Andrews 74.7% // Marquise Brown 72.4% // Sammy Watkins 70.4% // Devin Duvernay 59.2%
  • Target shares: Andrews 22.8% // Marquise 22.8% // Sammy 19.2% // Duvernay 19.2%
  • Week 3 was the only game since Week 11 last year in which Marquise did not have either 80 receiving yards or a TD (including postseason)
  • His 2021 DK log: 19.4 // 26.3 // 8.3 // 19.1 // 36.5
  • Among WRs who have played all 5 weeks, Marquise ranks 6th in DK ppg
  • His 545 air yards rank 9th among WRs
  • Sammy hasn’t scored 15+ DK pts since Week 1 last year
  • Duvernay has never scored 11+ DK pts
  • LAC ranks 3rd against WRs (28.3)
  • Andrews ranks 2nd in air yards, tied-2nd in target share, and 3rd in WOPR among TEs
  • His 18.2 DK ppg rank 3rd
  • DK log: 5 // 10.7 // 18.9 // 11.7 // 44.7
  • His 44.7 score on Monday Night was the 3rd best at the TE position since 2014
  • LAC ranks 29th against TEs (18.8)


  • Snap share: Latavius Murray 42.5% // Ty’Son Williams 33%
  • Target share: Ty’Son 5.4% // Devonta Freeman 2.4% // Latavius 1.8%
  • Touches per game: Latavius 10.4 // Ty’Son 9.5 // Le’Veon Bell 4 // Freeman 2.5
  • There has been one instance of a BAL RB scoring 12+ pts this season (Ty’Son Williams scored 18.4 in Week 1’s OT loss to the Raiders)
  • LAC ranks 26th in DK ppg to RBs (29.2)

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 17th 1:00pm Eastern

Vikings (
23.75) at

Panthers (

Over/Under 45.5


Key Matchups
Vikings Run D
12th DVOA/6th Yards allowed per carry
Panthers Run O
25th DVOA/23rd Yards per carry
Vikings Pass D
10th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per pass
Panthers Pass O
32nd DVOA/32nd Yards per pass
Panthers Run D
32nd DVOA/13th Yards allowed per carry
Vikings Run O
27th DVOA/22nd Yards per carry
Panthers Pass D
20th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per pass
Vikings Pass O
21st DVOA/17th Yards per pass


By Hilow >>
  • Slew of “DNP” to start the week for the Vikings, with all of linebacker Anthony Barr, wide receiver Justin Jefferson, running back Alexander Mattison, and wide receiver Adam Thielen held out on Wednesday.
  • After missing Week 5, Dalvin Cook started the week with a limited session.
  • Christian McCaffrey currently dubbed as 50/50 to suit up this weekend after getting in another limited session to start the week.
  • Although unlikely to alter the overall state of the game, injuries could play a big part in potential fantasy appeal here.


The most telling stat to describe how Minnesota has run their offense so far this year is found when examining their per-down situation-neutral rush and pass rates. They fall smack dab in the middle of the league in pass rates on first and second down, but rank fourth in the league in pass rate on third down all the way up at 87%. This is very much a team that wants to set up the pass game through the establishment of the run, which is likely to become an issue in short order against a Panthers team allowing only 94.2 rush yards per game. Further uncertainty is introduced by the multitude of players with missed practices this week, including Justin Jefferson (DNP both days), Adam Thielen (DNP both days), Alexander Mattison (DNP then limited practice), and Anthony Barr (DNP then limited practice). The overall outlook for this offense is difficult to get excited about against a defense leading the league in opponent plays per drive and drive success rate allowed.

The ground game yields a disgusting 3.815 net-adjusted line yards metric, again for a Vikings team that builds its offense around the run. Not only have the Panthers allowed the second fewest fantasy points per game to opposing backfields, but they have filtered only 22 targets to the position through five games, or just over four per game. That’s not to say to expect low pass game usage from the Vikings backfield here, just that Carolina linebackers represent the second best unit in coverage through five weeks. Not much else to say from this backfield other than sledding is likely to be tough both on the ground and through the air here.

We aren’t done any favors with the pass game either. Both Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen have yet to practice this week and there aren’t any viable reports indicating their expected game-day status one way or the other. The viability of any Minnesota pass-catchers obviously is heavily influenced by the status of those two, which very likely could come down to game-time decisions. Justin Jefferson represents the best chances at aerial success as the one true hole on the Panthers defense is with the safeties in coverage (whose coverage grades are more so depressed because of the heavy zone this defense plays). Carolina ranks fourth in the league in opponent completion rate allowed at just 58.90% and also ranks highly in yards per completion allowed (sixth), which is a difficult feat to be good at both. 


Carolina’s defense has been one of the more pleasant surprises of the 2021 NFL season. The unit currently ranks third in the NFL in points allowed per game, eighth in rush yards allowed per game, and have allowed the fewest pass yards per game on the backs of a low 58.90% completion rate allowed (fourth) and 9.4 yards allowed per completion (sixth). They’ve thus far leveraged the success of the defense by utilizing a slow pace of play (21st-ranked situation-neutral pace of play) and balanced rush-pass rates (43/57). They’ve largely been successful on both sides of the ball despite injuries to two of their largest contributors in running back Christian McCaffrey and standout rookie corner Jaycee Horn. Following Horn’s injury, Carolina made big splashes in the trade markets by bringing in corners CJ Henderson and Stephon Gilmore in addition to the offseason acquisition of AJ Bouye. It is clear the emphasis of this team is on limiting splash plays and forcing teams to march the field, and it all starts with a heavy zone scheme with speed and athleticism on every level.

The matchup on the ground yields a modest 4.395 net-adjusted line yards metric, boosted by Minnesota’s bottom three marks in that regard. The Vikings have really struggled with running backs in the second level and the potential absence of Anthony Barr only serves to increase that deficiency. Consider the Vikings the softest matchup for this Carolina run game to date (yes, better than the Jets and Texans). That’s a welcome site for a team whose running backs haven’t averaged over 4.7 yards per carry in any game through five weeks. Running back Christian McCaffrey followed up a limited showing on Wednesday with a full absence from the media portion of practice on Thursday, so keep a close eye on his level of involvement as the practice week closes on Friday. In Week 5, Chuba Hubbard saw his first game with a snap rate over 55%, logging a 65% snap rate which he turned into a very CMC-esque 30 running back opportunities. It is fair to expect a similar level of involvement should CMC miss his third consecutive contest. Furthering the case for whatever running back starts for the Panthers is the heavy 23% running back target rate for Carolina over the first five weeks. Quarterback Sam Darnold rather quietly has five rushing scores on only 21 total carries this season which should be considered highly unsustainable. I say this to highlight the expected positive regression in the touchdown department amongst a running back corps with only one combined rushing or receiving score on the season. 

A defense that has ceded the lowest number of plays per drive and lowest opponent drive success rate on the season has led to a tight range of offensive plays run from scrimmage per game for the Panthers, with four of five games checking in between 71 and 76 plays. This has led to a tight range of expected pass attempts for Sam Darnold up to this point, with between 35 and 39 attempts in every game. Wide receiver DJ Moore leads the team with a 28.7% team target market share, but his mediocre-at-best 9.4 aDOT has left a lot to yards after the catch and touchdown efficiency. The good news is Moore is averaging a solid 5.1 yards after the catch per reception, which isn’t solely a reflection of his ability in that area as he is consistently schemed the ball on first reads on routes designed to place him in the best situation to maximize his skillset. This idea is in stark contrast to the Panthers of 2020 who primarily utilized Moore on deep routes and low probability passing. This is also highly important for us to understand moving forward and Matt Rhule has designed an offense to best maximize the talents of his playmakers. Furthermore, Rhule has demonstrated a knack for sticking to his game plan (an objective term to describe the relative aggression through play calling) deep into games regardless of the results on the scoreboard. With that in mind, the bulk of this offense revolves around the running backs and DJ Moore. Behind those players, Robby Anderson holds 31.9% of the available air yards through five contests, but his low 16.1% team target market share, deep 15.3 aDOT, and low 41.4% catch rate highlight the areas of the field (and routes) he is operating in. Terrace Marshall, Jr. has not enjoyed a level of success to match his preseason hype thus far, holding a low 6.5 aDOT, moderate 65.0% catch rate, and only 11.5% team target market share. 


This one is a difficult game to get an early-week read on based on the wide range of potential outcomes regarding potential game flows (and injuries). The best way to put it is there likely isn’t “one likeliest game flow,” rather numerous with close to equal chances of transpiring. When we dig deep into how each team is trying to win games, it is likeliest we see a relatively conservative start to their Week 6 contest, with the Panthers dictating the ultimate path the game takes. I say that because they are the team best equipped to be able to dictate the flow of the game, while the Vikings are the team likeliest to be able to make up ground late if forced into that scenario. This creates a likeliest scenario that really only involves about a half of a football game, where we see a relatively slow start from each team in a battle for field position. The second half carries about as wide range of outcomes as there is this week and largely depends on the Vikings’ ability to generate splash plays against a defense designed to limit opponents in that regard. That said, the end result could appear like anything from a traditional slugfest to an all-out shootout, but the majority of any damage is likeliest to come in the latter half of the game. 


Hilow >>

Considering the wide range of potential game flow outcomes, the most certainty we get from this game is from the Carolina running back position, which currently involves a great deal of uncertainty with respect to Christian McCaffrey and his injured hamstring. He completed a full week of limited practices last week before starting the week with the same status on Wednesday and being held out of practice on Thursday. The coaching staff in Carolina has shown a propensity to side with caution when it comes to injured players, leading me to believe that if CMC plays, we should expect a full workload. Should CMC miss, expect Chuba Hubbard to see 65-70% of the available running back snaps and one of the largest expected workloads on the slate.

For game scripts that see Minnesota break through in the second half, DJ Moore and Justin Jefferson (two straight days of DNP) carry the most appeal and can be paired together as correlated plays (the optimal way to play either). Often we hunt for spots that leave you with multiple “outs” when it comes to expected fantasy production, and the story for these two receivers this week involves very specific game scripts in order to hit (and it happens to be a scenario where it raises the likelihood of each hitting together, hence the assertion of the optimal way to play them). As such, both Moore and Jefferson are likely best left to MME play.

It is difficult to not have interest in the remaining Vikings core players, but this game will serve as their most difficult test to date, which represents an interesting underweight proposition considering public sentiment and to-date production. We also currently have a good deal of unknowns surrounding this team with both Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson having missed practices on Wednesday and Thursday, while Alexander Mattison improved to a limited practice and Dalvin Cook improved to a full practice on Thursday. The big picture with the entirety of the Vikings is that we just don’t have enough information at this time based on potential available personnel.

Both quarterbacks are likely to be left out of my late-week condensed player pool in a game with such a narrow likelihood of blowing up. Finally, the secondary pass-catchers from the Panthers should all be considered wide range of outcome plays, bringing low floors and moderate ceilings.

JM >>

I love how Hilow laid out the likely slower-starting nature of this game. “Close game // second half football” is a great way to look at this one. It should be noted, of course, that just last week we saw a couple shootouts that were almost entirely second-half-based (and this game is number five (out of 10 games this week) on my list of “game environments I like”), but given that these guys are priced appropriately, the likely second-half-lean of this game makes “had to have it” scores less likely, while increasing the chances of disappointing scores. Speaking from a DFS perspective, I’ll be approaching this game with the following mindset: “stack this game, or leave it alone.” In other words: bet on this game shooting out; and recognize that I’m otherwise just trying to “blind squirrel” my way to a big score by attempting to cherry-pick appropriately-priced players from a “second half” game in which I’m saying (due to my lack of game stack) that I don’t expect a shootout.

The one exception, of course, is the Carolina backfield — with Chuba again set to make the “Bonus” section of my Player Grid if Christian McCaffrey is out, and with CMC set to be listed as a Light Blue Chip if he plays (being downgraded from “Blue Chip” only because of the slight uncertainty we would have around his health).

Summing up this game, for me:

“Game stack or nothing, with the exception of the Carolina backfield.”

By LexMiraglia10 >>

Sam Darnold:

  • Darnold has nearly as many 300-yd pass games with CAR (3) in five games as he did in three seasons with NYJ (4)
  • MIN has allowed just one 300yd passer on the season (Kyler), and has allowed the 14th fewest passing yds so far
  • Darnold has five rushing TDs on the season already
  • QB rushing vs MIN: Kyler (5:31:1) // Russ (3:7)
  • MIN ranks 6th in defensive pass DVOA
  • Darnold has thrown five INT in the past two games vs defenses ranked 7th & 10th in defensive pass DVOA
  • MIN’s three INT on the season rank middle of the pack
  • MIN ranked 7th & 3rd in INT in 2020 & 2019
  • Darnold scored 20+ DK pts in just 8/38 games with NYJ (just one of 30+)
  • He’s already halfway to matching that total through five games in Joe Brady’s offense
  • Darnold has scored 20.1, 22.9, 28.3, 36.5, 9.08 DK pts with CAR
  • MIN has allowed the 7th highest yds/att, but it’s been trending downward as the defense has improved and faced lesser passers like Baker & Goff (it was 2nd highest two weeks ago)


  • In Robby Anderson’s best game this year (W1), he caught just one deep pass for TD
  • He has not topped 50 yds or 10 DK pts in the past four games
  • After four weeks of consistency and multiple big scores, DJ Moore was slowed by the PHI defense for his worst game of the season (5:42)
  • All these WRs vs MIN scored in the first three weeks: Chase (5:101:1), Higgins (4:58:1) // Hopkins (4:54:1), Moore (7:114:1), Green (3:44:1) // Metcalf (6:107:1)
  • WRs in the last two games vs MIN: Odell (2:27), Higgins (4:63) // St. Brown (7:65)
  • DJ Moore has 50 targets in five games; Anderson’s 29 are the next closest
  • Home Favorite WRs averaging 10+ tg since 2014 (221) are averaging 19.77 DK pts/g

Christian McCaffrey:

  • Since Week 9 of 2018, CMC has scored under 24 DK pts just five times in 30 full games
  • Two of those five came in W17 blowouts vs NOR in which multiple starters either didn’t play or finish game
  • CMC has 30+ pts in 16 of those 30 games and 35+ in 8 of them
  • MIN ranks 20th in defensive rush DVOA
  • Backfields rushing vs MIN: CIN (149:1) // ARI (72) // SEA (88:1) // CLE (169:1) // DET (108:1)
  • CMC touches in two full games this year: 21 att, 9 tg // 24 att, 6 tg
  • RBs with 3+ rec vs MIN: Mixon (4:23) // Edmonds (5:29) // Homer (3:48) // Swift (6:53)

Kirk Cousins:

  • Only one of five QBs vs CAR has even topped 200 pass yds
  • Cousins has 200+ yds in every game thus far
  • CAR has the highest pressure rate in the NFL through five weeks per PFR, with the 3rd highest rate of blitzes
  • Cousins is averaging 4.2 yds/att on 67 pressured dropbacks (9 sacks)
  • Cousins Big Time Throw Rate (PFF) jumps from 2.1% to 6.8% when not blitzed to blitzed
  • Final game totals of Cousins 25+ pt DK scores with MIN: 2021 (51, 67, 47) // 2020 (51, 59, 63, 55, 72) // 2019 (50, 58, 72) // 2018 (50, 41, 69, 58)
  • 13/15 games came in 50+ pt finishes, with 8/15 over 58 pts
  • This game carries a 46.5 total; MIN has scored a combined 26 pts vs CLE & DET the last two weeks; CAR has allowed the 3rd fewest points through five games
  • MIN vs CAR in 2020 finished 28-27 with MIN winning behind 307 yds, 3 TD from Cousins


  • Jefferson has now out-targeted Thielen in 10 of the last 12 games
  • Total targets this season: Jefferson (45) // Thielen (37)
  • Jefferson’s lowest target total this year is 7, highest is 11
  • Jefferson has 70+ yds in 11 of his last 13 games
  • Before Week 4, Thielen had caught at least one TD in 13/19 games since last year, with four in the first three games of 2021
  • In the last two games, Thielen has totaled 5 rec for 86 yds, 0 TD on 11 targets
  • Team’s top WRs vs CAR: Davis (5:97:2) // Callaway (2:8) // Cooks (9:112) // Cooper (3:69:1), Lamb (2:13) // Smith (7:77)
  • Jefferson finished with 7:70:2 vs CAR in 2020


  • MIN lead RB touches by game: Cook (27, 25) // Mattison (34) // Cook (15) // Mattison (32)
  • Dalvin missed the two games Mattison dominated touches
  • Top RB yds vs CAR: Ty Johnson (26) // Kamara (30) // Ingram (20) // Zeke (143), Pollard (67) // Sanders (51)
  • CAR ranks 12th in defensive rush DVOA and has allowed the 2nd fewest RB DK pts
  • Total yds for lead MIN RB in 2021: 104 // 148 // 171 // 44 // 153
  • Dalvin has scored at least one TD in 24 of his 33 games since 2019; seven 2+ TD games in that span
  • As an underdog since 2019 (14 g), Dalvin has five games of 30+ DK pts & seven games under 20 DK pts
  • Dalvin vs MIN in 2020: 18:61, 4:21

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 17th 4:05pm Eastern

Cards (
22.5) at

Browns (

Over/Under 48.0


Key Matchups
Cardinals Run D
31st DVOA/29th Yards allowed per carry
Browns Run O
21st DVOA/25th Yards per carry
Cardinals Pass D
31st DVOA/21st Yards allowed per pass
Browns Pass O
26th DVOA/13th Yards per pass
Browns Run D
5th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per carry
Cardinals Run O
8th DVOA/2nd Yards per carry
Browns Pass D
2nd DVOA/6th Yards allowed per pass
Cardinals Pass O
25th DVOA/29th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • Different game, same story here with respect to key injuries, primarily on the Browns side of the ball.
  • Although this game carries a high game total, the spread nature of each offense leaves us with less “outs” than public perception will dictate.
  • Since each offense is so spread, the best way to attack this game is to attack the game environment, similar to what we saw in last week’s Browns game.

How arizona Will Try To Win ::

The Cardinals have added an extra gear to Kliff Kingsbury’s horizontally-spread offense with the addition of wide receivers AJ Green and Rondale Moore, and running back James Conner. Conner gives the team an additional red zone rushing threat to pair with quarterback Kyler Murray, while the presence of an additionally viable intermediate threat in AJ Green has allowed the team to attack downfield with greater precision and frequency. Rondale Moore is being used like a Swiss Army knife, frequently being schemed the ball in the open field over multiple levels. And let us not forget about DeAndre Hopkins, who retains his status as one of the most dynamic playmakers at the wide receiver position. Overall, the offense is built to play with pace and stretch an opposing defense horizontally, creating space over the middle of the field while wearing down the defensive unit.

The ground game for the Cardinals can best be described as a situational split, with holdover Chase Edmonds acting as the primary between-the-twenties back, while newcomer James Conner is utilized as the change of pace, short yardage, and primary red zone back. Standard range of outcomes as far as opportunities go typically leaves Edmonds in the 10-12 rush attempt range and four to six target range, with at least four targets in every game so far. James Conner’s workload is more dependent on game flow, but he typically resides in the 12-16 rush attempt range with minimal pass game work. As was discussed two weeks in a row on the Saturday pod, quarterback Kyler Murray has seen less designed rush attempts this season when compared to his earlier career, with between five to seven attempts in every game this season. We’ll circle back to this thought later.

The spread nature of this passing game (both from a theoretical standpoint and actual target distribution) has meant no pass-catcher has seen double-digit looks in any game this season. The likeliest outside influence to change that fact would be an injury to one of the primary pass-catchers (Maxx Williams doesn’t count) or a negative game script which would require an increase to the overall pass volume. Since neither of those is the likeliest case this week, we’re left with yet another week of six to nine expected targets for Nuk, five to seven for all of AJ Green, Christian Kirk, and Rondale Moore, and four to six for Chase Edmonds. The pace-down nature of their opponent is likely to keep the total number of offensive plays run from scrimmage below 70 here, leaving only a negative game as an outside driving force for increased volume.

How cleveland Will Try To Win ::

Note: This was written before Nick Chubb was ruled out. We are leaving this in here for the related thoughts explored…

It’s no secret that Cleveland would like to slow things down on offense through slow pace of play (30th) and heavy rush rates (2nd). A very bend-but-don’t-break zone heavy defensive scheme completes the game plan, which like the offense, has been largely successful up to this point. The Browns have allowed only 298.8 total yards of offense per game, which ranks fourth in the league. And while Cleveland ranks third in opponent completion percentage, they are all the way down at 23rd in yards allowed per completion at 11.5. So while their defense has been largely successful in maintaining their end of the bargain, they have also been rather susceptible to splash plays against to start the year.

Both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt have yet to practice this week (as of Thursday), an interesting development for a team that relies so heavily on their services. The Browns attempt the most rushes per game in the league at 35, so an absence from either back would be a big deal here. The matchup on the ground yields the week’s top net-adjusted line yards value of 4.83, one of the largest disparities you will see this late in the season (after these metrics have time to normalize). In addition to the running backs, tackle Jack Conklin has yet to practice this week with a knee injury, possibly denting the matchup slightly. A standard week sees Chubb and Hunt split work in a 60/40 strict committee, with Chubb a good bet for 20-22 rushes (and minimal targets) and Hunt a good bet for 16-18 running back opportunities, with four to six of them being through the air. Should either miss here, it is fair to expect the remaining healthy back to see an uptick to his expected opportunity totals, with the most drastic likely to be Kareem Hunt should Chubb miss. Lots of moving parts to pay attention to here. With how poorly the Cardinals have performed along the offensive line, it may come as a surprise to find out they have allowed only one rushing score against the entire year, likely a case of the regular negative game flows they have forced from their opponents thus far (only 96 rush attempts against through five weeks). Basically, the lack of rushing production against is less relatable to actual performance than it is the pressure on opposing offenses created through their own scoring.

We pretty much know what to expect by now from the pass game as well, with Baker Mayfield typically capped in the 30-32 pass attempt range in even the most negative of game scripts. Wide receiver Jarvis Landry is expected to miss another contest, leaving Odell Beckham, Jr, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and Rashard Higgins as the primary wide receivers on an offense that utilizes multiple tight end sets at the highest rate in the league. As such, expect significant snaps from each one of Austin Hooper, David Njoku, and Harrison Bryant, assuming Njoku plays after a limited session on Thursday. No member of this pass-catching corps has seen double-digit looks in a game this season, with Kareem Hunt actually leading all pass-catchers in total targets through five weeks at just 21. Arizona cut down on the league’s average completion rate allowed by about 5% and rank in the top half of the league in yards allowed per completion.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

We’re likely to see a closely contested game throughout here. If this game were played at a neutral site, it would be a pick ‘em, but since it is in Cleveland, the Browns are currently installed as 3.0-3.5-point favorites. Injuries to the Cleveland run game are the biggest story here, which is likely to have a large influence on the fantasy utility of players from this game. Assuming both Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wills play, in addition to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, we’re likely to continue to see a ground-based attack built on established efficiency, behind the league’s second-ranked offensive line, per PFF. Considering each team is likely to experience some level of success in their preferred way to attack, we’re left with a scenario where we know pretty much what to expect from each team here. As such, primary players from each side should be utilized in rosters that play to the game environment erupting as opposed to one-offs.



Tributaries ::

DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Dwprix >>

Note: This was written before Nick Chubb was ruled out. We are leaving this in here for the related thoughts explored…


  • As of Wednesday evening, this has the 4th highest total (49.5) on a ten game slate
  • It opened as the highest total on the week but has dropped 4.5 pts 
  • ARZ hasn’t started 5-0 since 1974
  • CLE & ARZ matched up in 2019 w/ the same QBs, ARZ winning 38-24
  • ARZ had scored 30+ in every game until last week in which they scored 17
  • ARZ pt totals: 17 // 37 // 31 // 34 // 38
  • Cleveland offensive point totals: 47 // 14 // 26 // 31 // 33
  • ARZ (31.4) and CLE (28.4) rank fourth & sixth in pts/g
  • When Baker Mayfield & Kyler Murray faced off in 2019, they combined for 62 points 
  • 2021 Points allowed rank: CLE-11th (22.8) // ARZ-6th (19.0)
  • CLE D ranks T-third in sacks (16) while ARZ ranks T-tenth (12)
  • ARZ has a +5 TO differential while CLE has a 0 TO differential
  • CLE D allowed LAC to go 4/4 in the RZ last week & gave up 3 4th down conversions

Baker Mayfield:

  • Mayfield has yet to top 33 pass attempts this season 32 // 33 // 31 // 21 // 28
  • His highest yardage output (321 yds) came Week 1 against KC who rank in pass yds allowed/g (291.8)
  • Last week, CLE put up 42 pts & Mayfield threw for his second highest yardage total of the season w/ 305 yds
  • Due to low pass atts & also spreading his tgts out, no CLE player has a game with 10+ tgts
  • Mayfield targeted players/week: 7 // 9 // 8 // 10 // 10
  • Mayfield DK pts: @LAC-26.0 // @MIN-9.3 // vs CHI-16.9 // vs HOU-18.5 // @KC-16.6
  • ARZ allows the ninth least DK pts/g to QBs (18.0) having faced Trey Lance-15.58 // Matthew Stafford-20.30 // Trevor Lawrence-11.46 // Kirk Cousins-25.26 // Ryan Tannehill-17.18 
  • Mayfield was hit just once last week // ARZ D ranks T-18th in pressure rate

Nick Chubb/Kareem Hunt:

  • CLE ranks first in rush atts/g (35) and yds per rush (5.4)
  • Team Rush %:Team Target %: Chubb-51%:4% // Hunt-31%:15% 
  • Hunt is now first on the team in tgts (21), second in rec yds (149), & first in total TDs (4)
  • Chubb has 4 TDs & avgs 104.6 rush yds/g after last weeks 21:161 yd game
  • Chubb is second in the NFL in rushing (523 yds) behind Derrick Henry (640)
  • ARZ allows the ninth least DK pts/g (20.5), give up the fourth most yds/g, and second most yds/carry (5.4) to RBs


  • Mayfield has yet to target any player on the team 10+ times in a game
  • In three games, Odell Beckham has 19 tgts but caught just nine
  • OBJ team tgt share in those three: 10% // 23% // 31% 
  • CLE WR season tgt share: OBJ (3 games)-14% // Rashad Higgins-12% // Donovan Peoples-Jones-7% // Anthony Schwartz-7% // Landry (IR)-4% 
  • Peoples-Jones has played the most snaps on the team outside four lineman & Mayfield
  • ARZ allows the least DK pts to TEs (5.6)


  • TE snaps have been split between Austin Hooper, David Njoku, & Harrison Bryant
  • Hooper-67% // Njoku-62% // Bryant 41%
  • TE targets: Hooper-16 // Njoku-17 (third on team, seven last week) // Bryant-10
  • Bryant ran ten routes last week but was not targeted
  • ARZ allows the least DK pts to TEs
  • The most any TEs have scored against ARZ was Tyler Higbee’s 4:36 yd effort Week 4
  • Njoku went 7:7:149:1 TD

Kyler Murray:

  • CLE has allowed the 6th most DK pts/g to QBs (24.1) having faced Justin Herbert-45.82 // Kirk Cousins 11.12 // Justin Fields-3.92 // Tyrod Taylor/Davis Mills-23.48 // Patrick Mahomes-36.28
  • Until last week, Kyler Murray was averaging the most QB DK pts/g (29.5)
  • After last weeks 13.70 pt outing against SF, he ranks fourth among QBs (26.3)
  • His price ($7.9k) went down $100 this week and is second highest on the slate (Patrick Mahomes-$8.3k)
  • Murray DK pts: vs SF 17 // @ LAR-22.6 // @ JAX-22.5 // vs MIN-38.1 // @ TEN 34.6
  • Rush atts/g: 6.0 // Rush yds/g: 22.0 // 3 Rush TDs
  • Last season Murray avg 31.5 rush atts/g & had 11 rush TDs
  • Murray leads the league in completion % (75.2) 
  • Despite passing just 33 times/g (25th), ARZ is seventh in pass yds/g (285.2)
  • CLE D ranks first in QB hits (43)
  • They allows the 11th least pass yds/g (223.2) but the ninth most yards/completion (11.5)
  • Murray vs CLE 2019: 19:25:219 yds:1 TD:1 INT // 8:56 rushing

Chase Edmonds/James Conner:

  • Rush Share: Edmonds-32% // Conner-42% (Murray-20%)
  • Edmonds is tied for second in team tgts (26, 17.0%) but is the only ARZ player not to score a rec TD (besides Conner who has seen just 4 tgts)
  • Conner has 15 RZ rush attempts (only one last week) (8th in NFL) w/ five TDs (tied for second in NFL) (Henry has seven) // Edmonds has six (zero last week) w/ zero TDs (Murray has six w/ two TDs)
  • These two only rushed a combined 16 times last week while Rondale Moore, Christian Kirk, and Murray took 11 rush atts.
  • Conner has five TDs in his last three games
  • CLE allows the fifth least DK pts to RBs (16.9) having faced LAC, MIN, CHI, HOU, & KC

ARZ Receivers:

  • ARZ WR Routes Run (of 194): DeAndre Hopkins-190 // AJ Green-171 // Christian Kirk-137 // Rondale Moore-88
  • Team tgts: Hopkins-34 // Green-28 // Moore-24 // Kirk-23
  • WR TDs: Hopkins-4 // Green-2 // Kirk-2 // Moore-1
  • ARZ WRs have scored 20+ DK pts five times
  • Maxx Williams is the only ARZ TE to get any targets this season (17 tgts, one TD)
  • CLE allows the 12th least DK pts to WRs (37.8) and a middling 10.9 DK pts to TEs
  • CLE allowed to WRs: Week 1-Tyreek Hill-40.10 // Week 2-no HOU WR/TE over 10.0 DK pts // Week 3-no CHI WR/TE over 5.0  // Week 4-Justin Jefferson-20.4 // Week 5-Mike Williams-39.5, Keenan Allen-13.5

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 17th 4:25pm Eastern

Raiders (
19.75) at

Broncos (

Over/Under 44.5


Key Matchups
Raiders Run D
17th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per carry
Broncos Run O
14th DVOA/18th Yards per carry
Raiders Pass D
8th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per pass
Broncos Pass O
18th DVOA/25th Yards per pass
Broncos Run D
30th DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per carry
Raiders Run O
24th DVOA/29th Yards per carry
Broncos Pass D
26th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per pass
Raiders Pass O
28th DVOA/24th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By MJohnson86 >>
  • Las Vegas has been in the news for all the wrong reasons over the last week. Despite all the attention being given to the coaching change, due to the nature of the circumstances we should not expect any dramatic scheme changes to take place in the short term.
  • Both teams enter this game on two game losing streaks after 3-0 starts against relatively weak schedules.
  • Neither team projects to be particularly aggressive in this matchup as both teams have above average defenses and moderate offensive approaches and personnel.

How Las Vegas Will Try To Win ::

The Raiders last two weeks have been absolutely wild — even by NFL standards. Turmoil around their coach, consecutive losses, more turmoil and the firing of their coach, and now they get a road game against a division rival. No rest for the weary. Jon Gruden is out and new Head Coach Rich Bisaccia takes the reins after being the Assistant Head Coach and Special Teams Coordinator since 2018. This was a sharp move by the Raiders to go with Bisaccia as the Interim HC as it allows for maximum stability in all areas. Bisaccia will handle all of the head coaching responsibilities and, as a Special Teams Coordinator, he has had interactions with players on both sides of the ball, which will give him greater locker room rapport. Perhaps more importantly, it allows Offensive Coordinator Greg Olson and Defensive Coordinator Gus Bradley to keep their focus on their current responsibilities which should lead to a relatively unchanged product on the field. The Raiders have been good yet somewhat inconsistent on both sides of the ball. This stability should keep them from completely folding going forward. Usually, when we see mid-season coaching changes, they are due to poor performance by the team and the new coach will look to shake things up as they try to make a case for the permanent job and distance themselves from how the previous coach did things. However, the Raiders are not in that situation as they sit at 3-2 and have realistic playoff aspirations. 

Las Vegas should have a relatively balanced approach this week as they have turned to a more ground-based attack the last couple of weeks since the return of Josh Jacobs. The Raiders have a solid receiving corps across the board but none of their wide receivers stands out as an “Alpha” and, against a very talented Broncos secondary, they are unlikely to generate big plays or try to force their receivers to win difficult matchups. Instead, they will use their receivers in different formations and personnel groupings to stretch the Denver defense and open up the other areas they would prefer to attack. Denver plays primarily man coverage with some Cover-2 looks mixed in as well. These tendencies should give Darren Waller the opportunity to exploit mismatches against defensive backs (size) and/or linebackers (speed) when given man coverage and the opportunity to attack the seams downfield when Denver goes to their Cover-2 looks. Quarterback Derek Carr has actually been pretty aggressive throwing downfield this year so I would expect him to take a couple of strategic shots if for no other reason than to force the defense to respect it and allow them to pepper Waller with targets and use the run game and short-area passing to move the ball methodically down the field.

How Denver Will Try To Win ::

Denver plays at one of the slower paces in the league and has a league-average run-to-pass ratio. This matchup with the Raiders is pretty neutral as the Raiders rank in the middle third of the league in total defense DVOA, rush defense DVOA, and pass defense DVOA. There is no clear funnel from the Raiders defense and a usually balanced attack from the Broncos offense, meaning we can likely expect a pretty straightforward game plan from Denver. 

Teddy Bridgewater likes to spread the ball around and manage the game, acting like a point guard on a basketball team. The Broncos have targeted eight or nine different players in every game so far this season, making for a broad distribution of targets even after they have sustained some injuries in the receiving corps. After opening the season throwing the ball down the field surprisingly aggressively (against the Giants, Jags, and Jets), Bridgewater and the Broncos have been more conservative for the last two weeks until the 4th quarter when it was a 2+ score game. The Raiders have only given up 10 plays over 20 yards this season (3rd fewest in the NFL), making it unlikely that Teddy starts pushing the ball downfield again unless he has to. 

The Broncos should use their running game (and running backs in the passing game) a decent amount and have decent success against the Raiders defense that PFF grades as the 21st ranked run defense in the league through five weeks. The split workload makes it very difficult to project either back for a big game, but they should combine for success statistically and, more importantly to the Broncos, help them sustain drives and control the game. Once again, the likelihood of this outcome tells us the Broncos should be able to employ their preferred conservative, methodical approach in this spot and not have a pressing need to speed things up or become overly aggressive. The strength of their defense also makes it unlikely they will fall far behind the Raiders and be forced out of their comfort zone.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

Combined scores in the five Broncos games this season: 40 // 36 // 26 // 30 // 46

The Raiders have scored 23 points in their last two games and are unlikely to drive the pace and scoring in this game, making it likely that this game stays in the range of the other Broncos games so far this season (30 to 45 points). The Broncos are a solid unit on both sides of the ball and play smart, sound football by limiting turnovers, controlling field position, and limiting big plays from their opponents. Neither team plays at a fast pace as Las Vegas is right around league average in situation-neutral pace of play and Denver plays at the 4th slowest pace in the league. While the Raiders do pass the ball at a 64% rate (6th highest in the NFL), they are less likely to turn pass-heavy in this spot on the road against a very good pass rush and secondary. The Broncos are more likely to be able to generate big plays, but less likely to push the issue of making those big plays happen. All of this sets up for a relatively low play volume game environment with a low likelihood of very explosive plays that would turn up the scoring expectations. 

The best case for this game to turn into something more exciting would be if Las Vegas has some early defensive lapses that give big plays to the Broncos. That is to say, this game is more likely to be triggered by blown coverages, missed tackles, or other bad plays from the Raiders than it is from the Broncos going out and making the plays themselves. This scenario would force the Raiders to turn to the air with more volume and aggressiveness. 



DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Dwprix >>


  • This matchup has the second lowest total on the slate (44) w/ DEN favored by 3.5
  • LV scored 32 & 37 pts in this matchup last season going 2-0
  • The totals went for 63 & 49 pts
  • Jon Gruden “resigned” this week & Rich Bisaccia was named interim who is their Special Teams Coordinator & Asst HC 
  • LV has allowed 20+ in every game except Week 2 @ PIT
  • DEN only allowed 26 total pts the first three weeks facing NYG, JAX, & NYJ but 50 the last two facing BAL & PIT

Derek Carr:

  • OC Greg Olson will take over play calling duties who was an OC for Carr in 2014 (his rookie year)
  • Olson came back to LV from JAX with Gruden in 2018
  • Carr has the third most pass attempts (205) but also has played 2 OT games
  • He would have the fifth most (196) w/o the OT periods
  • Carr ranks second in pass yds/g
  • DK pts Weeks 5-1: 28.00 // 27.18 // 25.24 // 15.44 // 8.84
  • He’s scored less and less DK pts every week since the start of the season
  • Last season vs DEN: Week 17 (29.24 DK pts)-24:38:359:2 TDs:2 INTs // Week 10 (7.16 DK pts): 16:25:154:0 TDs:0 INTs
  • DEN allows the second least DK pts to QBs (15.1) but has faced JAX & NYJ
  • DEN pts allowed to QBs: Daniel Jones-22.38 // Trevor Lawrence-8.82 // Zach Wilson-4.60 // Lamar Jackson-22.44 // Ben Roethlisberger-17.02
  • Carr has been sacked the third most (15) while DEN has the tenth most sacks (12)


  • Josh Jacobs returned after missing weeks two & three & has handled 70% of RB rushes since but has failed to rush for 50+ yds
  • He has seen five & five tgts the past two weeks in B2B losses
  • DEN allows the third least DK pts to RBs/g (13.6)
  • The only RB to break 20 DK pts vs DEN was Najee Harris last week (25.2)
  • Peyton Barber missed last week but should play this week
  • LV now has Jacobs, Kenyan Drake, Barber, & Jalen Richard to consider while deciding who’s active


  • Target Share: Hunter Renfrow-19% // Henry Ruggs-14% // Bryan Edwards-12% 
  • Yds/rec:: Renfrow: 10.9 // Ruggs-20.5 // Edwards-18.2
  • Ruggs is the only WR to have 100+ rec yds in a game
  • No WR has 10+ tgts in a game
  • DEN allows a middling 39.1 DK pts to WRs

Darren Waller:

  • Waller saw 19 tgts week one 
  • Tgts since: 8 // 7 // 7 // 7
  • The 19 tgt game was his only over 100 yds
  • He has fewer rec yds in each game since week one: 45 // 50 // 54 // 65 // 105

Teddy Bridgewater:

  • Bridgewater has a 7:1 TD to INT ratio
  • He threw his first INT of the season last week
  • Bridgewater atts: 38 // hurt in game // 25 // 34 // 36
  • In four full games, Bridgewater has one 300+ yd game
  • He ranks 10th in yds/att (7.9) 
  • Bridgewater has one 300+ yd game while DEN has allowed just one to Lamar Jackson Week 4.
  • LV allows the 7th fewest DK pts to QBs (17.1)

Melvin Gordon/Javante Williams

  • Gordon ($5.1k) & Williams ($5.0k) have been splitting RB work
  • Gordon is questionable after missing Wednesday’s practice 
  • Rush Share: Gordon-46% (60 atts) // Williams-42% (54 atts)
  • Gordon has 13 tgts // Williams has 12 tgts
  • Gordon: 282 yds:2 TDs:4.7 yds/att // Williams: 247 yds:1 TD:4.6 yds/att
  • LV allows the seventh most DK pts to RBs (26.9)


  • Jerry Juedy will continue to miss a couple more weeks & KJ Hamler is out for the season
  • Tim Patrick has seen increasing tgts (28) each week: 4 // 4 // 5 // 6 // 9
  • Courtland Sutton leads the team in tgts (39)
  • He has two games with 10+ tgts and went for 120:1 TD // 159 yds:0 TDs
  • Kendall Hinton has played 26 & 39 snaps the past two weeks w/ six tgts
  • LV allows the fifth least DK pts to WRs (29.7)

Noah Fant:

  • Fant is second in team tgts (39), third in yds (176), & had 2 TDs
  • Albert Okwuegbunam saw ten tgts in four games & was playing about half the snaps before landing on IR
  • LV allows the 11th most DK pts to TEs (15.1) 

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 17th 4:25pm Eastern

Cowboys (
27) at

Patriots (

Over/Under 50.5


Key Matchups
Cowboys Run D
9th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per carry
Patriots Run O
23rd DVOA/24th Yards per carry
Cowboys Pass D
6th DVOA/25th Yards allowed per pass
Patriots Pass O
29th DVOA/28th Yards per pass
Patriots Run D
1st DVOA/1st Yards allowed per carry
Cowboys Run O
15th DVOA/19th Yards per carry
Patriots Pass D
13th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per pass
Cowboys Pass O
11th DVOA/14th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • Two teams on vastly different trajectories as far as how they approach games.
  • Keep an eye on the status of Trevon Diggs as the week progresses, who missed practice Wednesday with an ankle injury sustained in Week 5.
  • For the Patriots, keep an eye on the status throughout the week of primary running back Damien Harris and the entirety of the offensive line.
  • Not a ton to love for me as far as prospective fantasy production goes in a game I’ll be wagering American Dollars on the under.
  • Post-letdown Jakobi Meyers, maybe? At bare minimum he should have volume on his side here.

How dallas Will Try To Win ::

After starting the year with a 77% situation-neutral pass rate in Week 1 (second highest in the league), Dallas has been the most run-heavy team in the league over the previous three weeks with a very Clevelandian 43% situation-neutral pass rate. On the season, the Cowboys lead the league in adjusted line yards (5.47), running back yards per carry (5.59), and second-level yards (1.67). All of that to say, the drastic shift in play calling and offensive design has worked. But (why is there always a “but”?), their Week 1 opponent just happened to be the Buccaneers, a team that once again leads the league in both opponent rush yards per game and percentage of pass plays faced. Their subsequent four opponents represent three of the bottom six in rush yards allowed per game, with the only outlier being Carolina’s eighth-ranked standing, and even then, Carolina currently ranks eighth in rush DVOA and fifth in pass DVOA (first in yards allowed per pass attempt). Keep this in mind for the remainder of the season as it is much more likely that offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is simply tailoring his offense to attack the path of least resistance in his opponents as opposed to taking the stance that the Cowboys are always going to be a rush-first offense.

It just so happens that their opponent this week presents the Cowboys with one of the most run-funnel matchups in the league as the Patriots come into this game ranked 29th in defensive run DVOA and second in pass DVOA, which means we can confidently project Dallas to approach Week 6 in a similar fashion as we’ve grown accustomed to over the previous four weeks. The matchup yields a borderline elite 4.93 net-adjusted line yards metric on the backs of Dallas’ top-ranked standing. Tony Pollard saw his highest snap rate of the season in Week 5, which can primarily be attributed to Ezekiel Elliott’s missed snaps with a rib injury. Expect the split between the two to regress to the 70/30 split range as far as snaps go here, with Zeke a near lock to land in the 20-24 running back opportunity range as the Cowboys continue to manage his workload with a healthy Pollard. That is likely to leave a solid 14-18 running back opportunities in Pollard’s capable hands, furthering the variance associated with a backfield highly reliant on trips to the paint.

Quarterback Dak Prescott has averaged just 26.75 pass attempts over the previous four weeks, and there is nothing in the matchup that is likely to force that number to increase by a significant margin here. Furthering the complications for the Cowboys, at least as far as pass-catchers go, is the fact that they have run 12-personnel at the league’s fourth-highest rate over the previous four weeks and all of Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Cedrick Wilson, Dalton Schultz, and Blake Jarwin typically land in the 50-85% snap rate range. Not only have they passed less, but Moore has mixed offensive personnel enough to leave all primary pass-catchers of little utility outside of multi-touchdown games (which has only happened with tight end Dalton Schultz over that span). With the running back duo typically combining for five to seven targets of their own, there simply isn’t a lot of meat left on the proverbial bone for this passing game for as long as we can confidently project their elevated rush rates to continue (with that being the case this week).

How new england Will Try To Win ::

Similar to how Kellen Moore has shaped and molded the offense in Dallas dependent on personnel available and weekly opponent, so too has Josh McDaniels with the Patriots. The bulk of that offensive game plan for New England revolves around the skillset of rookie quarterback Mac Jones, whose game is built around timing, accuracy, and game smarts as opposed to arm strength and mobility. This understanding helps us rationalize the low 7.5 intended air yards per pass attempt and low 3.4 completed air yards per pass attempt values. When we then consider the plethora of injuries and COVID issues along the offensive line, it makes sense that the Patriots hold a 70% situation-neutral pass rate over the previous three weeks.

The ground game has taken a substantial hit lately with the issues along the offensive line and injury to lead back Damien Harris, who did not practice on Wednesday with a rib injury sustained in Week 5. I’d tentatively expect Harris to go this weekend, but the bigger story is the four offensive linemen that missed last week’s game. Keep an eye on their individual statuses as the weekend approaches, as it is likely to have a significant impact on the way the Patriots choose to attack here. The matchup on the ground yields a low 3.945 net-adjusted line yards metric, which could theoretically be lower assuming backup linemen. Should Harris play, he is likely to lead the backfield in snap rate and opportunities in the absence of James White. Rhamondre Stevenson would be likeliest to step into any early-down work vacated by Harris, with Brandon Bolden on hand to handle passing down and change of pace duties.

What this devolves into is that the likeliest game plan involves a heavy reliance on the short-to-intermediate pass game. New England’s slightly below average 11-personnel usage leaves significant room for both 12- and 21-personnel alignments, with Jakobi Meyers operating as the only near-every-down pass-catcher. Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne, Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith, and even N’Keal Harry have seen meaningful snaps over the previous two weeks. Nelson Agholor leads the team in aDOT at 14.4, with every other member landing at an aDOT of 10.3 or below. With Meyers seeing almost 83% of his snaps out of the slot, he is the likeliest to avoid the hottest corner in the league in Trevon Diggs (assuming he plays). In a somewhat surprising development, Hunter Henry has run almost double the routes as fellow tight end Jonnu Smith through five weeks (133 to 70). That said, Jonnu has seen a target on 23 of his 70 routes, while Henry has only seen 26 targets on his 133 routes. The big picture here is the Patriots are quite comfortable taking what the opposing defense gives them and spreading the ball around as necessary. The matchup tilts away from Diggs, making Jakobi Meyers and the tight ends the best bets to move the football.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

Digging into this game confirmed my early-week suspicion that the game total was set too high. After writing the under up in my Early Week Line Inefficiencies piece, we’ve actually seen the game total increase by a full point to 50.5. Dunno emoji. I do not see the path to a shootout-style game here, with the likeliest scenario leaving the Cowboys formulating an attack built around the run game and the Patriots left to try and build sustained drives through a short area (and low upside) pass game. That said, each team lands in the top half of the league in a situation-neutral pace of play, but the heavy rush rate for the Cowboys and low per-pass depth of target for the Patriots leads to a game where splash plays are less likely. Both teams also reside in the top half of the league in drive success rate allowed on defense (fourth for the Patriots and 13th for the Cowboys), furthering the likelihood of stalled drives and lowered scoring. The actual likeliest game flow sees the Cowboys controlling the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, which should keep them biased towards the run once more. With the Cowboys controlling the pace and tempo of the game, the Patriots are likely to be forced to primarily move the ball through the short-area pass game.



DFS+ Interpretation ::

By LexMiraglia10 >>


  • DAL points: 29 // 20 // 41 // 36 // 44
  • NE points: 16 // 25 // 13 // 17 // 25
  • DAL final totals: 60 // 37 // 62 // 64 // 64
  • NE final totals: 33 // 31 // 42 // 36 // 47

Mac Jones:

  • Jones passing: 281:1 // 186:0 // 270:1:3 // 275:2:1 // 231:1:1
  • In NE’s two wins, Jones has thrown just 30 pass att in each
  • In NE’s three losses, Jones has thrown 39, 51, 40 pass att
  • NE is a four-point home underdog to a DAL team that has faced pass att of 50, 41, 39, 39, 38
  • QB pass yds vs DAL: 379 // 338 // 326 // 301 // 294
  • DAL ranks 7th in defensive pass DVOA


  • Targets: Meyers (9, 6, 14, 12, 5) // Agholor (7, 3, 8, 5, 4) // Bourne (3, 3, 8, 5, 3)
  • NE’s highest scoring WR by game: Agholor (18.2) // Meyers (7.8) // Bourne (21.6) // Meyers (16.8) // Meyers (9.6)
  • Best WRs vs DAL: Brown (5:121:1), Godwin (9:105:1) // Keenan (4:108), Williams (7:91:1) // Reagor (5:53) // Moore (8:113:2) // Toney (10:189)
  • Trevon Diggs snaps: LCB (26.9%) // RCB (57.6%) // SLCB (13.1%)
  • Jakobi Meyers snaps: LWR (15.8%) // RWR (23.9%) // SLWR (59%)
  • Meyers snaps W4/5: LWR (17.5%) // RWR (42.1%) // SLWR (39.5%)
  • Meyers dropped from 70.4% slot snaps in W1-3 to 39.5% in W4-5
  • DAL has allowed the 9th lowest success rate to WRs on the 4th most WR targets faced
  • DAL has still allowed the 3rd most WR yds


  • Route share on Jones dropbacks: Jonnu (48%, 42%, 27%, 38%, 19%) // Henry (58%, 76%, 68%, 64%, 65%)
  • Targets: Jonnu (5, 5, 6, 5, 2) // Henry (3, 4, 6, 5, 8)
  • aDOT: Jonnu (3.7) // Henry (7.4)
  • RZ targets: Jonnu (5) // Henry (2); Henry has TD in back to back games
  • Henry has 30+ yds in every game (31, 42, 36, 32, 75)
  • TEs vs DAL: Gronk (8:90:2) // Cook (3:28) // Goedert (2:66), Ertz (4:53:1) // Engram (4:55); Both Parham & Cook had TDs called back vs DAL in W2
  • Those TEs all spend considerable time in the slot; Henry has played 51.3% of snaps in slot
  • Rank of success rate & yds/att allowed to TEs: HOU (29th, 25th) // DAL (28th, 28th)
  • Henry just went for 6:75:1 vs HOU


  • James White is done for the season, JJ Taylor fumbled on his second touch in W4 and hasn’t been heard from since, Bolden is filling the White passing game role (nearly 5 tg/g) but still has just 5 total rush att, and Stevenson ran for just 23 yds on 11 carries with Harris missing time in W5
  • Harris is day-to-day with injury; also has now also fumbled the game away in W1, and fumbled at the GL in W5
  • Harris with 15+ rush att in career: 17:100 // 16:102:1 // 22:121 // 16:80 // 23:100 // 16:62:1
  • Devontae Booker is the only RB to reach 15 att vs DAL (16), and Chuba is the only other one over 10 (13)
  • Top RB rush yds vs DAL: Lenny (32) // Ekeler (54) // Sanders (24) // Chuba (57) // Booker (42)
  • DAL ranks 8th in defensive rush DVOA
  • Booker scored the first RB rush TD vs DAL in W5
  • Backfield rec yds vs DAL: TB (39) // LAC (68) // PHI (65) // CAR (62) // NYG (18)
  • NE RB rec yds leader by week: White (49, 45) // Bolden (23, 51, 6)

Dak Prescott:

  • Dak pass yds in first five games with McCarthy: 266 // 450 // 472 // 502 // 403 
  • Dak pass yds in last four games with McCarthy: 237 // 238 // 188 // 302
  • Dak pass att/g in first five vs last four (TD:INT): 52 att (12:4) vs 27 att (10:2)
  • Dak’s 32 pass att last week were his most since W1 vs TB
  • Pass att vs NE: 27 // 33 // 21 // 43 // 29
  • NE ranks 8th in defensive pass DVOA and has allowed the 6th fewest pass yds on the 4th fewest att faced
  • After holding Brady to 269 yds, NE allowed 312 yds to Davis Mills (???)
  • In 19 games as a Road Favorite, Dak has just four games of 25+ DK pts (1 of 30+)
  • This is Dak’s first game as a Road Favorite since 2019
  • Dak’s one career game vs NE: 2019 (212:0:1; Loss 9-13 in NE)


  • Seven WRs have 60+ yds vs NE: Parker (81), Waddle (61:1) // Berrios (73) // Evans (75), Brown (63) // Moore (109:1), Conley (84:1)
  • Lamb has 60+ yds in 4/5 games: 104:1 // 81 // 66 // 13 // 84
  • Cooper’s yds in W1 vs W2-5: 139 vs 179
  • Top WR in every Dak/McCarthy game (DK pts): Cooper (18.1) // Lamb (19.6) // Wilson (30.7), Gallup (28.8) // Cooper (34.4) // Cooper (41.9) // Lamb (17.4) // Wilson (9.7) // Cooper (15.9) // Lamb (18.8)
  • Each of Cooper & Lamb has maxed out at 6 targets in the last 3 games


  • Targets: Schultz (6, 2, 7, 8, 8) // Jarwin (4, 4, 2, 3, 0)
  • Schultz already has 4 games of 6+ rec (6:45 // 6:80:2 // 6:58:1 // 6:79)
  • NE allowed the 9th highest success rate & 6th highest yds/att to TEs in 2020, but have allowed the 5th & 3rd lowest through five weeks of 2021
  • The TEs to face NE so far have been an uninspiring group: Smythe (Gesicki played half as many snaps as his other games this year), Kroft, Brate, Akins
  • Schultz leads DAL in targets since Week 2


  • DAL RB rush att in last three games: 29 // 31 // 30 // 35
  • Rush att: Elliott (11, 16, 17, 20, 21) // Pollard (3, 13, 11, 10, 14)
  • Targets: Elliott (2, 2, 3, 1, 3) // Pollard (4, 3, 1, 0, 4)
  • Total yds: Elliott (39, 97, 116, 143, 112) // Pollard (43, 140, 65, 67, 103)
  • Backfield yds vs NE: MIA (120) // NYJ (162) // NOR (145) // TB (163) // HOU (111)
  • RB rush att vs NE: 17 // 28 // 27 // 26 // 23
  • NE ranks 22nd in defensive rush DVOA
  • NE has allowed just 1 RB rush TD & 1 RB rec TD
  • Elliott has four TDs inside the-5, and two more in the RZ
  • Elliott vs NE in 2019: 21:86, 4:40

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 17th 8:20pm Eastern

Hawks (
19) at

Steelers (

Over/Under 43.0


Key Matchups
Seahawks Run D
23rd DVOA/25th Yards allowed per carry
Steelers Run O
12th DVOA/17th Yards per carry
Seahawks Pass D
25th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per pass
Steelers Pass O
19th DVOA/20th Yards per pass
Steelers Run D
13th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per carry
Seahawks Run O
19th DVOA/20th Yards per carry
Steelers Pass D
7th DVOA/29th Yards allowed per pass
Seahawks Pass O
8th DVOA/12th Yards per pass


Sunday night football has the Seahawks visiting the Steelers. I imagine when the NFL was setting up the schedule they viewed this as a premium matchup, but with Russell Wilson hurt and Ben Roethlisberger playing like a geriatric, this game has just a 43 point total with the Steelers favored by five.

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On the Pittsburgh side, Najee Harris has one of the few bell cow roles left in the NFL, playing at least 65% of the offensive snaps and seeing 20+ touches in each of the last three games . . .

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Kickoff Monday, Oct 18th 8:15pm Eastern

Bills (
29.75) at

Titans (

Over/Under 53.5


Key Matchups
Bills Run D
18th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per carry
Titans Run O
18th DVOA/21st Yards per carry
Bills Pass D
9th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per pass
Titans Pass O
24th DVOA/16th Yards per pass
Titans Run D
10th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per carry
Bills Run O
5th DVOA/9th Yards per carry
Titans Pass D
24th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per pass
Bills Pass O
3rd DVOA/7th Yards per pass


After the absolute disaster of a game on Sunday night, Week 6 wraps up with what looks like a much more interesting one as the Bills visit the Titans. This game has a nice 53.5 point total with Buffalo favored by six. I’m happy this one is in Tennessee, as the Bills defense has been stomping all over everyone this season (1st in DVOA against both the run and the pass!), but hopefully with the Titans at home they can put up more of a fight.

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On . . .

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