Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Jameis Winston’s pass attempts in two games as the starter: 41 and 46.
- Cedric Tillman’s target counts in three games as the primary option through the air post-Amari Cooper trade: 12, 9, and 11.
- Nick Chubb in three games since being activated from IR: 11 carries and three targets on a 36% snap rate, 16 carries and two targets on a 61% snap rate, 15 carries and one target on a 35% snap rate.
- Browns offensive plays run from scrimmage in two Jameis starts: 69 and 79.
- The Saints have forced (allowed?) the fifth highest pass rate over expectation this season.
- The Browns have boosted the total number of offensive plays by 10% in each of their games with Jameis Winston under center.
- The Cleveland offensive line finally appears to be healthy coming out of their bye.
- Saints RB Jamaal Williams has yet to practice (as of Thursday) with a groin injury he aggravated last week.
- This game has all the makings of an eruption spot.
How cleveland Will Try To Win ::
Jameis Winston swooped in to save fantasy land in Week 8, starting the previous two games for the Browns before their Week 10 bye. In those games, he attempted 41 and 46 passes while his offense ran 69 and 79 offensive plays from scrimmage, while their defense ceded 24 points to the Ravens and 27 points to the Chargers. The Ravens ran 68 offensive plays in their meeting (137 combined offensive plays) while the Chargers ran 57 (136 combined offensive plays). The median in offensive plays run from scrimmage in 2024 is about 124, meaning the Browns have combined with their previous two opponents (with Jameis under center) to boost the number of plays in their games by 10%. All of that to say, game environments involving the Browns are starting to look mighty enticing. And we’ve seen this play out in consecutive seasons in Cleveland, with a quarterback change behind Deshaun Watson sparking a DGAF mentality as a back-half playoff push unfolds. It is a slightly different starting point this year with the team sitting at 2-7, meaning they realistically have to win out or win all but one game to make the playoffs out of the AFC, but that back-against-the-wall, throw caution to the wind mindset is back – and we are here for it.
Nick Chubb made his season debut in Week 7 after rehabbing a disastrous knee injury suffered in 2023, handling an average of 16 running back opportunities on muted snap rates. That said, he continues to see extreme touch-to-snap rates and could be in line for increased opportunities in the right game environment out of the team’s bye week. Jerome Ford returned from injury in Week 9 to reclaim the primary change of pace role, playing 46% of the offensive snaps but seeing just two carries and three targets, highlighting the emphasis of Chubb in the offense now that he is active. The matchup against the Saints is about as good as it gets considering they are allowing the second most yards before contact per attempt and the fourth most fantasy points per game to the position.
As was touched on above, Cedric Tillman has operated as the true primary option through the air for the Browns after Amari Cooper was moved. He has averaged almost 11 targets per game in the three contests without Cooper and is set up well to continue to see his salary increase the rest of the season in DFS. We’ll talk more about the psychological aspects at play with his recent rise in salary below. Jerry Jeudy has played all but six offensive snaps since Cooper was shipped off, with Elijah Moore operating in a true slot role with snap rates between 64% and 76% in the previous three games. The offense has been rooted in 11-personnel during the recent three-game stretch, placing a relative cap on the snap rate of tight end David Njoku (82%, 84%, and 77% snap rates) as the team continues to rotate Jordan Akins and Geoff Swaim through in situational and package roles. Jeudy has yet to erupt in the current configuration of the offense but he has seen 19 targets over the last two weeks and put up 73 yards or more in each contest. At least as far as usage and production are concerned, the pecking order through the air goes Tillman, Jeudy, Moore, and Njoku at present.
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