Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Vikings WR Jordan Addison remained out of practice both days this week as he deals with compounding ankle injuries. He appears unlikely to suit up for the second consecutive week.
- WR Justin Jefferson has managed two limited sessions after suffering a quad contusion against the 49ers. I would bet he plays here.
- Both Joe Mixon (ankle) and Dameon Pierce (hamstring) have yet to practice this week for the Texans, placing their Week 3 statuses in doubt.
- Texans WR Nico Collins upgraded from a ‘DNP’ Wednesday to a limited showing Thursday with hip and foot issues. He appears likely to play.
- Two big questions for me from this game are – how does Kevin O’Connell utilize pre-snap motion to diagnose coverages, and who does he utilize as the motion man, and how do the Texans hold up in pass protection against blitz elements they have yet to see this season.
How houston Will Try To Win ::
The Texans are a complete team. From C.J. Stroud playing like a veteran, to three alpha wide receivers, to a competent and complete run game, to the lethal edge duo of Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter, to a top defensive mind for a head coach, to one of the better up-and-coming offensive coordinators in the league. This team can truly beat you in many different ways. That said, we saw what increased pressure in the backfield and zone-heavy coverages could do to slow this offense down in their Week 2 matchup with the Bears, and the Vikings present another difficult defensive nut to crack behind Brian Flores’ “mad scientist” defensive structure. I talked a lot about the intricacies of that structure on this week’s DFS Lab on Tuesday, so I won’t go fully into them here. Suffice it to say, Flores is one of the top four, maybe five, defensive minds in the game currently, and his revamped linebacker and secondary units are fun to watch in this scheme.
The current state of the running backs is likely to influence how the Texans choose to attack in this spot immensely as both Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce have yet to practice this week (as of Thursday). That leaves Cam Akers and special teamer Dare Ogunbowale as the remaining healthy members of the backfield. Against a defense holding opponents to just 3.8 yards per carry (after they held opponents to 3.8 yards per carry in 2023), and with the current backfield injuries, I expect offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik to dial up more quick hits through things like slants, screens, and sweeps. Even at full health, there isn’t a ton to love from the backfield in this matchup, let alone with two key injuries.
Nico Collins is just that dude. There is no other way around it. And his connection with Stroud has been on full display for two weeks. But the most impressive thing to me from the Stroud and Collins connection has been how they have performed when the play structure breaks down, particularly when Stroud is forced to escape the pocket. Collins is just so good at finding space when his quarterback is on the move, and Stroud constantly has his eyes downfield. Reminds me a lot of Patrick Mahomes and prime Travis Kelce. They just always know where the other is going to be or wants them to be. Within the structure, any one of Collins, Stefon Diggs, and Tank Dell can be “the guy” on a given week depending on how the matchup sets up. Against two high looks this season, Nico Collins (0.77 fantasy points per route run) and Stefon Diggs (0.65 FP/RR) have been the primary options for the Texans, with Tank Dell significantly lagging (0.18 FP/RR). Collins was at 0.56 FP/RR in 2023 while Dell was at 0.44 FP/RR. But as I said above, a lot of this matchup is likely to come down to how this team performs out of structure due to the tendencies of Brian Flores in Minnesota.
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