Game Overview ::
By mike johnson >>
- The Panthers made the shocking decision to bench QB Bryce Young after two games, turning to veteran journeyman Andy Dalton in hopes of sparking their dismal offense.
- The Raiders return home after a huge road win over the Ravens in Week 2.
- Las Vegas has failed to establish much of a running game over the first two weeks of the season but looks to get back on track against a Panthers run defense that ranks dead last in the NFL in DVOA.
- Carolina has been outscored 50-3 during the first half of games this season.
- The Panthers have been wildly inefficient at creating pressure on the quarterback this season, which will likely be a problem against the Raiders.
How Carolina Will Try To Win ::
Bryce Young has been the worst QB through two weeks by any metric you can find. Unable to complete easy passes, misfiring on long ones, misreading defenses, and generally looking like the winner of a fan raffle to be QB for the day, Young was mercifully benched by head coach Dave Canales early this week. The Panthers will turn to 37-year-old veteran Andy Dalton to replace Young and hopefully turn things around, or at least make them competitive on a weekly basis. Dalton started one game for the Panthers in 2023, a close loss to the Seahawks (while they lost 37-27, Carolina was only down 22-20 early in the 4th quarter). That was under a different coaching staff, however, and one game is really a small sample to take much away from.
Now that the “Young Experiment” is over (at least for now) we have to look ahead for Carolina. It is hard to have a grasp of exactly what the Panthers wanted to do conceptually because they have just been so bad so far. After this week we should have a better idea, but that doesn’t help us going into this week so we have to do some work and make a few decisions and assumptions. The first thing is the pass rate. We knew the Panthers wanted to focus on running the ball before the season started because they told us so. True to their word, the Panthers are throwing the ball at a rate more than 10% below what would be expected. This has been the case despite an offensive line that ranks 25th in adjusted line yards per attempt and a starting running back that ranks 31st in the league in PFF rushing grade. Part of that almost certainly had to do with how bad Young has been, but Dalton isn’t coming in here as a gunslinger in his prime so it’s fair to assume they will continue to have an elevated run rate even if it doesn’t sway significantly.
In the passing game, the personnel they have seem to have a clear path that would make sense for them to utilize. Veterans Adam Thielen and Diontae Johnson are skilled route runners and sure-handed receivers. The Panthers tight ends don’t offer much and they’ll likely need their RBs to assist in pass protection, while Jonathan Mingo and Xavier Legette are rotating a bit in terms of playing time and both are physically gifted players with a long way to go in their football development. All of these factors make it relatively clear that most of the Panthers usage and play calling will direct the ball to the running game and those two receivers (Thielen and Johnson). Thielen and Johnson are both best suited for short-area and intermediate routes. Helping the Panthers is the fact that Las Vegas ranks 29th in QB Pressure Rate so far this year. Also, of all the negatives around Carolina so far, one of the few positives has been that their offensive line ranks 5th in PFF pass blocking grade. All things considered, we have a pretty good idea of how this Panthers team is likely to try to move the ball and ultimately it all comes down to how much of an improvement Dalton is over the train wreck that came before him.
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