XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Oh, man. After two weeks of island games that looked exciting (at least when I wrote them up), now we get the Patriots at the Jets. This game has a 38.5 total with New York favored by 6.5, which means the Patriots team total is . . . wait for it . . . 16 points. Eek. But there’s money to be made, so let’s see if we can figure this out. 

New England

On the Patriots side, Rhamondre Stevenson’s role has been elite to start the season. He’s played 75% of the offensive snaps and handled 28 and 26 opportunities in their two games so far (46 carries, 8 targets). That’s just a fantastic role (what I was hoping for last season when I was drafting him so high in Best Ball!). The problem is that the Patriots have played the Bengals and the Seahawks so far, but I think the Jets are going to be a different type of defense. Obviously, we don’t have a lot of data yet but the Jets were gashed by San Francisco (who hasn’t been) but then went on the road and held the Titans to 17 points. The Patriots offense is closer to the Titans than it is to the 49ers (sorry Pats fans) so the odds of a massive game are low but the volume should be there, and in a really low-total game, Rhamondre is one of the guys who can feasibly get there just on workload without scoring a touchdown. The other tricky thing here is that DK (finally) is tightening up Showdown pricing after a few really loose ones to start the year, and Rhamondre is $11.4k. That is historically a huge price for him, or any running back, and I think that’s likely to keep his ownership in check. I’d view him as a safe floor play where you can also likely pay up to be contrarian, but his median outcome is not exactly great for his salary. Behind Rhamondre, Antonio Gibson has handled 18 carries and 1 target. Gibson is generally viewed as a strong pass catcher so the lack of passing game involvement is a little odd to me, but as long as he’s just being used as a 2-down breather back, that really limits his role. He rocked Seattle for 96 yards on just 11 carries but will find it tougher to pull something like that off against the Jets, leaving him likely needing a spike in receiving work or a vultured touchdown in order to pay off.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game . . . yikes. Let’s first note that the Patriots have attempted 24 and 27 passes in their two games so far, and let’s further note that the Jets offense plays VERY slowly (as you’d expect from a team quarterbacked by Aaron Rodgers). Between a glacially slow pace of play and an offense that wants to keep the ball on the ground, it’s hard to get excited about the Patriots receiving corps. So far we’ve seen them not really employ any full-time receivers with K.J. Osborn, Demario Douglas, Ja’Lynn Polk, and Tyquan Thornton splitting the wide receiver roles. Only once has any of those guys gone over 62% of the snaps (Osborn in Week 2), and only once has anyone gone below 54% (Thornton, also in Week 2). Osborn leads the position in targets with 8, Douglas has 3, Polk has 4, and Thornton has 3. Cooper Kupp BY HIMSELF had more targets than the entire Patriots wide receiver group has had. Fun times. It’s really tough for me to make sense of this and pick out a strong play because, frankly, they are ALL dart throws. Osborn currently has the biggest role but we’re splitting hairs because all of these roles are awful. If you make me pick, I think Polk is the most talented of the bunch and he was showing some ability to separate on his routes in Week 1, so over time I think he emerges as the WR1 here. And, I’d much rather take Patriots wide receivers than random TE3 types who are only on the field for 15% of offensive plays. At least these guys are on the field, and you have to be on the field for good things to happen. But man. It’s tough here. 

Tight end is the one bright spot where Hunter Henry leads all Patriots skill position plays in offensive snaps while Austin Hooper has a pretty robust backup role with 55% and 54% of the offensive snaps in their two games. Henry is coming off of a monster 12 target game last week and has 15 on the season while Hooper is sitting at 5. So, we can safely view Hooper as being roughly in the same bucket as the rest of the Patriots wideouts, while Henry looks to have the best role of all Pats pass catching options. The problem is that he’s priced like it at $7,800 – that’s quite a price spike for Henry based on one big game, and it really tamps down the excitement to play him (especially because while he had a huge Week 2, in Week 1 he saw just 3 targets). Good grief. This team. 

New York

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Deshaun Watson is legit broken. His throwing mechanics are off, his arm strength is nonexistent, and he looks like he’s launching a shot put when throwing the football.
• Amari Cooper has four drops through two weeks but ranks eighth in aDOT (18.9) and first in air yards, although with that comes a first-ranked unrealized air-yards number (159), an 80^th-ranked target-quality rating, and an 81^st-ranked catchable-target rate.
• Jerome Ford commanded the backfield opportunities in a blowout loss in Week 1 before seeing just 33.3% of the backfield opportunities in a Week 2 game in which the team largely controlled throughout with their defense.
• Browns defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz is going to have a heyday against Daniel Jones after showing five to six players along the line of scrimmage at an extreme rate in the team’s first two games.
• Brian Daboll simplified the offense for Jones in Week 2 against the Commanders, spreading the pass catchers horizontally and running heavy rates of comeback and curl routes designed to flash numbers to Jones. While that increased his efficiency through the air, it left little room for yards after the catch. Against the Browns, that spells trouble.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

The Giants rank 21^st in pass rate over expectation (PROE) but sixth in overall pass rate at 63.87%, with that ratio heavily skewed by a blowout loss to the Vikings in Week 1 and a narrow defeat at the hands of the Commanders in Week 2 due to an injured kicker. Looking at this matchup and how we expect Daboll to approach this spot, we’re likely to see the Giants start the game with a run-balanced nature considering a 31^st-ranked pressure-differential matchup on pass situations and 32^nd-ranked pass-matchup differential. That should eventually lead to a higher pass rate as the game moves on against the stout Cleveland defense, which could put Jones under duress at extreme rates. It will be up to Daboll to dial up quick hits to Malik Nabers and Wan’Dale Robinson or else things could get ugly fast. Nabers erupted for a 10-127-1 line on a ridiculous 18 targets against the Commanders in Week 2, but that was against an opponent largely incapable of generating organic pressure. This one has a much higher chance of developing into a situation similar to what we saw in Week 1 against the Vikings, in which the Giants were relegated to short-area passing, feeding Robinson 12 targets to the seven of Nabers. What the Giants did differently in Week 2 was going more spread on passing plays in an attempt to get Nabers more space on the perimeter, but the design of the offense was atrocious. Route structure was extremely predictable and Daboll attempted to simplify things for Jones by giving him multiple options with receivers legitimately squared up to him showing their numbers. I think I heard “Nabers comes back to the football” on the tape on every reception – it was bad. While that makes things easier on your quarterback, it largely limits the receiver’s ability to generate anything after the catch. The lone exception to that was Nabers in Week 2, when he made multiple athletic plays to shake first contact and gain additional yards with the football in his hands – again, against the Commanders.

Veteran journeyman running back Devin Singletary continued to play a sub-workhorse role for the Giants in Week 2, handling 17 opportunities (a robust 94.4% opportunity share) on a 79% snap rate. If not for the low total opportunities induced via game script through two weeks, we might be talking about Singletary as a true workhorse. The problem against the Browns is there appears to be very little chance the Giants are able to feed Singletary a robust workload considering matchup and expected game environment. Tyrone Tracy is the clear change-of-pace option but has seen just six total opportunities through two weeks, while Eric Gray has seen just seven offensive snaps. Consider Singletary a good bet to see 15-17 weekly opportunities for an offense that could find it difficult to find the end zone against the Browns.

Seeing 18 targets on 28 pass attempts is borderline ridiculous, but that is exactly the kind of usage Nabers enjoyed in Week 2. But that also drives home the fact the rookie receiver represents the Giants’ best chances of moving the football on a roster largely devoid of talent behind Nabers. As was covered above, Daboll spread the offense out against the Commanders in an attempt to get Nabers more space, but the route structure was so bad that Nabers could do little with the football after the reception. Nabers also had a costly drop on fourth down on the team’s final possession that ended up costing the team the game, but that’s a small blemish on an otherwise massive outing. Look for Daboll to continue the spread nature of the offense here, something that’s far less likely to be effective against a much stiffer opponent. Behind Nabers, Robinson and tight end Theo Johnson also ran a high rate of short-area, numbers-to-Jones routes in Week 2 and could be asked to step up more pending the status of Cleveland corner Denzel Ward, who managed just 11 defensive snaps in Week 2 as he fights through a shoulder injury. The injury has influenced his coverage span, as it has made it hard for the veteran to lift his arm above his chest. Ward being limited again in Week 3 would theoretically increase the Giants’ chances of moving the football, although the Browns defensive front should put Jones under much more duress than he saw a week ago.

How cleveland Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Colts WR Josh Downs returned to a full practice for the first time this season as he recovers from an ankle injury. He is expected to make his season debut against the Bears.
• Bears WR Keenan Allen (heel) remained a non-participant on Wednesday after missing Week 2 against the Texans.
• Shane Waldron has been a steady disappointment as an offensive playcaller for most of 2023 and all of 2024. Meanwhile, Shane Steichen is coming off one of the worst games I’ve seen him call in some time against the Packers. Both of these teams are looking for a get-right spot after playing the bulk of the first two games from behind.
• This is a very interesting spot that pits the strength of each team against each other and the weakness of each team against each other.

How chicago Will Try To Win ::

The Bears might take the title for the top defense through two weeks of play. And while that is a tiny sample size, one of those games came against a team that might be regarded as a top-two-or-three offense in short order (Houston). The thing is, it has been much needed to keep this team in games due to how poorly coached their offense has been. Offensive coordinator Shane Waldron is doing his rookie quarterback no favors, and their offensive line has played as one of the worst units through two weeks. We knew this offensive line had question marks coming into the season after they performed so poorly in the preseason, but their stink has been on another level to begin the year. Even with all the splashy additions to the offensive side of the ball this offseason, this team derives its identity through its defense. And you shouldn’t have had to look much further than how they went about stealing a victory from the Titans in Week 1 to find out. The defensive front of Montez Sweat, Gervon Dexter, Andrew Billings, and DeMarcus Walker has played as if possessed to start the season, and the recent acquisitions of T.J. Edwards, Tremaine Edmunds, and Kevin Byard filled gaps in the roster that were present before their respective arrivals. General Manager Ryan Poles should be lauded for his work over the previous two seasons to turn this franchise around in a hurry, both through trades and through the draft.

The run game for the Bears has been borderline nonexistent. Free agent acquisition D’Andre Swift has a total of 48 yards on the ground on 24 carries, which is the third-fewest yards per carry of running backs to see more than ten carries (looking at you, Rachaad White and Trey Benson). And what’s worse for his fantasy value moving forward is that he left the game for the lone goal line carry in Week 2 in favor of Khalil Herbert. The matchup with the static defense of the Gus Bradley Colts is about as good as it gets on the ground, but the Bears have not shown anything to inspire confidence about them being able to take advantage of those shortcomings. We talked about the unique aspects of some other defenses that deploy zone at increased rates, like Todd Bowles for the Buccaneers and Jim Schwartz for the Browns – yea, Bradley is on the other end of the spectrum, stuck in this monotonous loop of static coverages and alignments that make attacking their tendencies fairly straightforward. It’s just the same 4-3 look with down linebackers from Cover-3 alignments, over and over again. I mean, 54.5% Cover-3 rates through two games is ridiculous. Man/gap concepts are just destroying this defense, which Matt LaFleur executed to a tee in Week 2. LaFleur just kept utilizing down-blocking center or tackle concepts with a pulling guard and creating massive holes in the defensive line, with the pulling guard as a lead blocker to confront a linebacker unit within three yards of the line of scrimmage. It wasn’t rocket science, but Bradley did very little to adjust throughout the game. That said, Waldron utilizes a heavier rate of zone concepts in the run game, which a 3-4 base, Cover-3-heavy defense is better suited to neutralize.

Waldron’s Bears actually increased their 11-personnel usage in Week 2 without Keenan Allen in the lineup, which is even more interesting considering the Bears have not played with a lead in the first three-quarters of either game this season. One of the things plaguing Waldron’s pass offense to this point in the season is a relative inability to stretch the field in the vertical. All three of D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, and Keenan Allen hold an average depth of target between 6.6 and 9.5, with seven deep targets between the three. The structuring of routes is just more confined to the intermediate areas of the field with the struggles of the offensive line, something that appears unlikely to change in the immediate future. That matters slightly less against a Colts defense that remains predictable and static dependent on the down-and-distance equation but noteworthy moving forward, nonetheless. Another example of a head-scratcher from Waldron last week was a screen thrown to the strong side of the formation, but instead of the screen called to the spry Carter with Gerald Everett blocking, the play was designed to go to Everett with Carter pulling lead blocking duties. I almost spit out my Topo Chico when I saw the play. Anyway, yea, this offense is not looking good on paper or on film at present. It currently appears as if Allen will miss his second consecutive game, meaning DeAndre Carter is likely to step into the starting slot receiver role. The final head-scratcher for me through two weeks has been the inconsistent tight-end usage. Cole Kmet was held to a 48% snap rate in Week 1, while Everett handled 61%, which flip-flopped in Week 2 to 77% for Kmet and 36% for Everett. Marcedes Lewis has played about ten snaps in each game as a blocking specialist.

How indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Vikings WR Jordan Addison remained out of practice both days this week as he deals with compounding ankle injuries. He appears unlikely to suit up for the second consecutive week.
• WR Justin Jefferson has managed two limited sessions after suffering a quad contusion against the 49ers. I would bet he plays here.
• Both Joe Mixon (ankle) and Dameon Pierce (hamstring) have yet to practice this week for the Texans, placing their Week 3 statuses in doubt.
• Texans WR Nico Collins upgraded from a ‘DNP’ Wednesday to a limited showing Thursday with hip and foot issues. He appears likely to play.
• Two big questions for me from this game are – how does Kevin O’Connell utilize pre-snap motion to diagnose coverages, and who does he utilize as the motion man, and how do the Texans hold up in pass protection against blitz elements they have yet to see this season.

How houston Will Try To Win ::

The Texans are a complete team. From C.J. Stroud playing like a veteran, to three alpha wide receivers, to a competent and complete run game, to the lethal edge duo of Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter, to a top defensive mind for a head coach, to one of the better up-and-coming offensive coordinators in the league. This team can truly beat you in many different ways. That said, we saw what increased pressure in the backfield and zone-heavy coverages could do to slow this offense down in their Week 2 matchup with the Bears, and the Vikings present another difficult defensive nut to crack behind Brian Flores’ “mad scientist” defensive structure. I talked a lot about the intricacies of that structure on this week’s DFS Lab on Tuesday, so I won’t go fully into them here. Suffice it to say, Flores is one of the top four, maybe five, defensive minds in the game currently, and his revamped linebacker and secondary units are fun to watch in this scheme.

The current state of the running backs is likely to influence how the Texans choose to attack in this spot immensely as both Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce have yet to practice this week (as of Thursday). That leaves Cam Akers and special teamer Dare Ogunbowale as the remaining healthy members of the backfield. Against a defense holding opponents to just 3.8 yards per carry (after they held opponents to 3.8 yards per carry in 2023), and with the current backfield injuries, I expect offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik to dial up more quick hits through things like slants, screens, and sweeps. Even at full health, there isn’t a ton to love from the backfield in this matchup, let alone with two key injuries.

Nico Collins is just that dude. There is no other way around it. And his connection with Stroud has been on full display for two weeks. But the most impressive thing to me from the Stroud and Collins connection has been how they have performed when the play structure breaks down, particularly when Stroud is forced to escape the pocket. Collins is just so good at finding space when his quarterback is on the move, and Stroud constantly has his eyes downfield. Reminds me a lot of Patrick Mahomes and prime Travis Kelce. They just always know where the other is going to be or wants them to be. Within the structure, any one of Collins, Stefon Diggs, and Tank Dell can be “the guy” on a given week depending on how the matchup sets up. Against two high looks this season, Nico Collins (0.77 fantasy points per route run) and Stefon Diggs (0.65 FP/RR) have been the primary options for the Texans, with Tank Dell significantly lagging (0.18 FP/RR). Collins was at 0.56 FP/RR in 2023 while Dell was at 0.44 FP/RR. But as I said above, a lot of this matchup is likely to come down to how this team performs out of structure due to the tendencies of Brian Flores in Minnesota.

How minnesota Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Eagles WRs A.J. Brown and Johnny Wilson have to practice this week (as of Thursday), while S C.J. Gardner-Johnson was added to the injury report on Thursday after practicing in full Wednesday.
• Saints QB/TE/RB/FB/WR Taysom Hill did not practice Wednesday with a chest injury.
• The Saints have been a fun watch through two weeks, not only because they’re hanging 40-burgers on the reg, but because of how well-designed and intricate their offensive structure has been. It’s becoming a situation where I don’t want any other game on the tele when they play.
• The Eagles are not currently equipped to handle some of the nuanced schematic elements of Saints coordinator Klint Kubiak’s offense, meaning it will likely be the Saints pushing the game environment and the Eagles left to respond.

HoW PHILADELPHIA Will Try To Win ::

The Eagles don’t have the same elite linebackers and secondary as they did in previous seasons, something that has become clearly evident over the first two weeks. So far this season, the Eagles have allowed the most yards per carry (6.4) and sixth-most points per game (25.5), escaping Week 1 with a narrow victory over the Packers before falling at home in outrageous fashion to the Falcons. In that Week 2 loss, Nick Sirianni handled the fourth quarter horribly and then turned around and blamed his quarterback and running back in the post-game presser. Not a great look, Nick. 

The play in question came on third down with under two minutes remaining with the team up three points, and the Falcons without any remaining timeouts. Instead of hammering the football twice on the ground with either running back Saquon Barkley or quarterback Jalen Hurts, Sirianni elected to call a rollout pass play to Barkley in the flat. Barkley ultimately dropped the pass, resulting in a stopped clock and a field-goal attempt. Dude, just run the ball twice and eat up an additional 1:20 in game clock. A field goal does absolutely nothing there. Anyway, it struck me the wrong way the way Sirianni handled the situation, not to mention his post-game comments.

That said, Kellen Moore’s offense looks legitimately good, both on tape and on paper. The problem thus far hasn’t been the offense, it’s been a defense that can’t figure out how to get teams off the field. Saquon Barkley has reclaimed legitimate workhorse usage in Philadelphia, handling 87.7% of the offensive snaps (first), 93.0% of the backfield opportunities (third), 46 carries to go along with seven targets, and a ridiculous 15 red-zone opportunities through two games. The Philadelphia offensive line is humming, while Barkley has forced nine missed tackles to go along with 3.57 yards after contact per attempt. Kenneth Gainwell is still the clear change-of-pace back but has seen a grand total of three carries through two games. The matchup against the Saints looks horrid on paper, considering New Orleans has allowed just 3.1 yards per carry thus far. But those two games came against the hapless Panthers and a Cowboys team with a running back depth chart that is likely a bottom-three unit on paper. The Saints play primarily from Cover-1, Cover-2, and Cover-3, leading to a well above-average 61.2% single-high alignment rate. In other words, they likely aren’t this good against the run. They have shown a ton of base 4-3, with an athletic linebacker unit that moves and shifts a lot prior to the snap. Typically, you’re going to see man/gap concepts have a higher efficiency against that base, something we have to assume Moore is tracking for this matchup, potentially setting up a situation where Barkley sees more than the 39% man/gap blocking he had run behind through two weeks.

The Eagles shifted to a heavier rate of 12-personnel without Brown in Week 2 against the Falcons, jumping to 40% 12 utilization. That left only DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert as near every-down pass catchers. Considering the state of the roster behind those two plus Barkley, I don’t think there’s much room to grow behind them with guys like Jahan Dotson, Britain Covey, Wilson, and Parris Campbell. But we’ve had a situation like this before with the Eagles – when one of their primary guys are out, they typically just get more concentrated around the remaining primary options. As such, expect a large portion of the offense to flow through Smith, Barkley, and Goedert. Goedert currently has a laughable 3.8-yard aDOT, meaning there isn’t a ton of upside beyond Smith and Barkley.

How NEW ORLEANS Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>

• The Steelers’ injury report doesn’t include a lot of notable names. Rookie WR Roman Wilson, who is yet to make his NFL debut, was limited on Wednesday with the ankle injury he suffered early in camp. TE MyCole Pruitt was a DNP with a knee. Starting guard Isaac Seumalo continues to be a DNP with a pectoral injury. 
• The notables on the Chargers injury report are Joey Bosa, who was limited with a hip, Justin Herbert who was a DNP with an ankle, and Joshua Palmer who was a DNP with elbow/calf injuries. 
• Throw out the artificially run-oriented Malik Willis Packers, and this game pairs the top two run-heaviest teams in the league. 
• The Chargers have thrown 46 passes this year. 
• The Steelers have thrown 43 passes this year. 
• Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren split snaps nearly down the middle last week. Harris was still the preferred back in rushing attempts. 
• J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards split snaps nearly down the middle last week. They split the work evenly, but Dobbins vastly outperformed Edwards. 
• Quentin Johnston took over the WR1 role last week. No other Charger WR played over 50% of the snaps. 
• George Pickens has a downfield role that could always produce a big game, but he’s never going to see consistent volume.
• Justin Fields has the highest floor for his price on the slate.
• The Steelers’ defense might be the best play from this game.

How LOS ANGELES Will Try To Win ::

The 2-0 Chargers are off to a fast start under new head coach Jim Harbaugh. They beat the Raiders in a “we’ll take it” ugly Week 1 game, before trampling the barely alive Panthers in Week 2. The Chargers have looked good under new offensive coordinator Greg Roman. Roman has coached as expected in games that are competitive. The Chargers have dictated the game flow for their first two games, and they’ve barely thrown (30^th in pass rate). The Chargers played slow (28^th in seconds per play) and leaned into the run. A run-heavy (30^th in the pass rate over expectation), game plan, plus a deliberate pace, is exactly the type of game Roman wants to call. Roman’s tendencies as an OC have been well documented, but what has been interesting is his deployment of his offensive players. There wasn’t an established hierarchy coming into the year, and already there has been a shift from preseason expectations. The Chargers’ backfield was again a timeshare. It’s curious to many that Dobbins (46%), was out-snapped by Edwards (48%). Their usage was also nearly identical.  Dobbins (17), saw one less carry than Edwards (18), while Dobbins got one target, and Edwards saw zero. Dobbins once again outperformed Edwards by a considerable margin with his touches, but it’s difficult to know when that’ll end up translating to a higher opportunity share.

The Chargers’ WR room was expected to feature Palmer, Ladd McConkey, and D.J. Chark, with Johnston serving as a rotational piece. Two weeks later, it looks like Johnston might have usurped the WR1 role from Palmer. Johnston (70%) saw the field the most in Week 2, while none of Palmer (43%), McConkey (49%), or Simi Fehoko (41%) played over half the time. That could have to do with game flow, it could be because Palmer was banged up throughout the game, or it could be a sign that the Chargers are going to treat Johnston as their top WR. Johnston gave them reason to believe in him, dropping a 5/51/2 line on six targets. The Steelers’ defense doesn’t present an obvious weakness, and the Chargers have had success playing their new brand of football. They have no reason to deviate from their preferred method of attack, being willing to accept Pittsburgh’s offer to play a grind-it-out game.

How pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Another week, another opportunity for Todd Bowles to blitz a rookie quarterback relentlessly.
• The Buccaneers are extremely banged up on the defensive side of the ball, with all of CB Jamel Dean (limited, knee), DT William Gholston (DNP, knee), DE Logan Hall (limited, foot), DB Josh Hayes, (DNP, ankle), DT Calijah Kancey (DNP, calf), NT Vita Vea (DNP, knee), and S Antoine Winfield Jr. (DNP, foot) on the injury report on Wednesday.
• The Broncos have been largely unimaginative and cautious on early downs this season, which is likely a nod to how the coaching staff views their starting quarterback more than anything else. They’re simply trying to not fall too far behind the sticks on early downs. This has led to a poor sustained-drive rate and susceptibility to playing their hand face up.
• One of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, or Jalen McMillan is likely to have a strong cost-considered game here, assuming the Broncos continue forward with an elevated Cover-1 utilization rate.

How DENVER Will Try To Win ::

First off, Bo Nix is not ready to run an NFL offense. Almost the entirety of the tape through two professional starts has consisted of one read and then a dump-off over the middle of the field, with Sean Payton presenting leaking running backs, tight ends, and any of his tall wide receivers as the outlet over the short-to-intermediate middle of the field. We know Payton and offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi want to introduce more trickeration (in my best John Madden voice), something they largely haven’t been able to utilize due to an inability to sustain drives through two weeks. That said, they did execute a trick play last week in which Nix was lined up out wide, got the football on a lateral after a direct snap to Javonte Williams and a reverse, then completed a deep pass downfield to Josh Reynolds for 49 yards. The fun then ended as Nix threw an interception in the end zone two plays later. 

In fact, Nix has yet to throw a touchdown and the lone touchdown scored by this offense through two weeks was a Nix rush from four yards out with only 2:09 remaining in the fourth quarter of a Week 1 loss to the Seahawks. Their 64.80% overall pass rate tells the rest of the story regarding the game environments they have found themselves in to start the season, which also helps to explain the 28 pressures Nix has faced through two games (on 81 dropbacks). Nix is now set to face an opposing head coach (and defensive play caller) that has developed one of the more intricate defensive schemes in the league, blending former Tampa-2 concepts into a zone-heavy, Cover-3-and-Cover-4-heavy defense with unique blitz packages. But the question at hand is how we think the Broncos approach trying to win this game, to which I would respond “they’re probably just trying not to lose it.”

Javonte Williams saw his snap rate jump from 52% in Week 1 to 66% in a closely contested Week 2 game, going from 10 opportunities to 16 in the process. When analyzing this offense, it must be done through the understanding that Payton and Lombardi are most effective when they can leverage a competent run game, preferring to draw up motion, play action, and trickery only after the run game has gotten going. 

Their first-down play calls against the Steelers went as follows: Williams rush for three yards, Williams reception for six yards, pass to Michael Burton for one yard (fullback), Williams carry for four yards, pass to Lil’ Jordan Humphrey for four yards, incomplete pass on throwaway, Williams carry for five yards, Williams carry for three yards, the 49-yard trick play, Williams carry for one yard, Williams carry for one yard, pass to Williams for eight yards, deep shot incomplete pass, pass to Greg Dulcich for no gain, Williams carry for two yards, incomplete pass short to Dulcich, pass to Dulcich in the flat for nine yards, outlet to Humphrey, pass to Williams. 

Everything they’re doing on first down is to not fall behind the sticks, which likely has as much to do with Nix as it does with Payton and Lombardi. The feasibility of this approach against the Buccaneers likely comes down to the health of Vea on the other side, who missed practice Wednesday with a knee injury.

In a continuation of the pass-game tendencies we saw from this team in 2023, the Broncos have utilized a rotation of eight different pass catchers between wide receiver and tight end in each game this season. Also in a continuation of previous tendencies, practice-squad wide receiver Humphrey has been elevated in back-to-back weeks to go on to play 30% and 77% snap rates. And then there’s the curious cases of Marvin Mims and Troy Franklin, two guys that cannot buy snaps for this offense, playing just 33 total combined snaps through two weeks. 

Based on the early-down tendencies thus far, Payton and Lombardi seem to be prioritizing the size and blocking abilities of Courtland Sutton, Reynolds, and Humphrey, even though the clear top playmaker on the roster is Mims. Furthering the struggles of the offense through the air to start the season is the predictability of the offensive play calling, with the team routinely in long down-and-distance situations throughout the game. That is a recipe for disaster against Bowles and his unique defense.

How TAMPA BAY Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• So much of the outlook of this game can change with the status of Jordan Love. His MCL injury brought a two to six week recovery timeline and he will be 16 days removed from the injury on Sunday. He is reportedly pushing to play.
• So, do the Titans prepare for a quarterback that was drafted by their franchise in 2022 in Malik Willis (they are probably hoping as much) or do they prepare for one of the up-and-coming great franchise quarterbacks in the league in Jordan Love?
• On the other side of the game, does Matt LaFleur prepare another unique game plan for Willis or does he move forward expecting Love to return, placing the team back to full strength?
• QB Jordan Love returned to practice in a limited capacity Wednesday, while WR Jayden Reed missed the session with a calf injury. RB Josh Jacobs was limited with a back injury.
• The Titans maintain a relatively clean bill of health heading into Week 3, with RB Tyjae Spears (DNP, ankle) on the team’s injury report on Wednesday.

How green bay Will Try To Win ::

We pretty much nailed the “putting ourselves in Matt LaFleur’s shoes in Week 2” exercise. We said the Packers were likely to lean on Josh Jacobs at an extreme rate, holding Malik Willis to 12-15 pass attempts, cracking down on the defensive side of the football with their top-end linebacker unit and secondary, likely playing elevated rates of zone coverage with linebacker attention paid to the backfield to keep Anthony Richardson in the pocket and reading the defense. And that’s pretty much exactly what they did, and came out with a win because of it. And that game could have been over much sooner had Josh Jacobs not fumbled at the goal line with the team up 10-0. Fast forward to this week, and there’s a completely new puzzle for LaFleur to piece together against a far different opponent. The Colts provided a matchup that was ripe for production through man/gap rushing concepts, against a static, Cover-3-heavy defense that was predictable and easy to manipulate. The Titans, on the other hand, have utilized Cover-4 (31.8%), Cover-3 (25.8%), and Cover-1 (22.7%) at near-even rates. Newcomer defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson had his coaching upbringing with the Rams, Jets, Eagles, and Ravens – four franchises that operated top-tier defenses during his tenure. His unique blend of coverages and alignments has forced opposing quarterbacks into quick decisions and coverage diagnostics, which has led to five interceptions through two games. But with LaFleur more or less showing his hand at how he will approach games without Jordan Love, this team could struggle to move the football against the Titans should Malik Willis get the start.

Josh Jacobs has handled a solid 72.9% opportunity share on 70.1% of the offensive snaps through two weeks, bordering on the workhorse running back discussion. His 48 carries and four breakaway runs lead the league and he has already seen seven red zone touches – his fantasy results would also look much different had he not fumbled at the one against the Colts last week. He has also forced 10 missed tackles and has generated 3.77 yards after contact per attempt, which combines with the solid offensive line play of the Packers to return a robust 5.0 yards per carry. But this matchup is far different than the one he saw last week against one of the most adept defenses in pursuit I have seen on tape this season. Expect Emanuel Wilson and rookie MarShawn Lloyd to be used interchangeably as a change of pace duo.

The Green Bay pass game has significant questions heading into Week 3. Do we see Malik Willis or Jordan Love under center? How significant is the injury to Jayden Reed? How significant are the injuries along the offensive line? And how does LaFleur game plan mismatches against a defense that has utilized single-high and two-high alignments at a near-even rate? There aren’t many sweeping statements we can make with all those question marks for their game against the Titans other than the surprising data point that tight end Tucker Kraft actually leads the team in snaps, amongst pass-catchers, through two weeks. Romeo Doubs is playing the highest snap rate at wide receiver but has seen just one deep target on a 22.2% target share, Christian Watson is playing fewer snaps than Jayden Reed and has just a 71.4% route participation rate, and Dontayvion Wicks is playing around 50% of the offensive snaps in each game but always appears to be open on tape.

How Tennessee Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• The Panthers made the shocking decision to bench QB Bryce Young after two games, turning to veteran journeyman Andy Dalton in hopes of sparking their dismal offense.
• The Raiders return home after a huge road win over the Ravens in Week 2.
• Las Vegas has failed to establish much of a running game over the first two weeks of the season but looks to get back on track against a Panthers run defense that ranks dead last in the NFL in DVOA.
• Carolina has been outscored 50-3 during the first half of games this season.
• The Panthers have been wildly inefficient at creating pressure on the quarterback this season, which will likely be a problem against the Raiders.

How Carolina Will Try To Win ::

Bryce Young has been the worst QB through two weeks by any metric you can find. Unable to complete easy passes, misfiring on long ones, misreading defenses, and generally looking like the winner of a fan raffle to be QB for the day, Young was mercifully benched by head coach Dave Canales early this week. The Panthers will turn to 37-year-old veteran Andy Dalton to replace Young and hopefully turn things around, or at least make them competitive on a weekly basis. Dalton started one game for the Panthers in 2023, a close loss to the Seahawks (while they lost 37-27, Carolina was only down 22-20 early in the 4th quarter). That was under a different coaching staff, however, and one game is really a small sample to take much away from. 

Now that the “Young Experiment” is over (at least for now) we have to look ahead for Carolina. It is hard to have a grasp of exactly what the Panthers wanted to do conceptually because they have just been so bad so far. After this week we should have a better idea, but that doesn’t help us going into this week so we have to do some work and make a few decisions and assumptions. The first thing is the pass rate. We knew the Panthers wanted to focus on running the ball before the season started because they told us so. True to their word, the Panthers are throwing the ball at a rate more than 10% below what would be expected. This has been the case despite an offensive line that ranks 25th in adjusted line yards per attempt and a starting running back that ranks 31st in the league in PFF rushing grade. Part of that almost certainly had to do with how bad Young has been, but Dalton isn’t coming in here as a gunslinger in his prime so it’s fair to assume they will continue to have an elevated run rate even if it doesn’t sway significantly. 

In the passing game, the personnel they have seem to have a clear path that would make sense for them to utilize. Veterans Adam Thielen and Diontae Johnson are skilled route runners and sure-handed receivers. The Panthers tight ends don’t offer much and they’ll likely need their RBs to assist in pass protection, while Jonathan Mingo and Xavier Legette are rotating a bit in terms of playing time and both are physically gifted players with a long way to go in their football development. All of these factors make it relatively clear that most of the Panthers usage and play calling will direct the ball to the running game and those two receivers (Thielen and Johnson). Thielen and Johnson are both best suited for short-area and intermediate routes. Helping the Panthers is the fact that Las Vegas ranks 29th in QB Pressure Rate so far this year. Also, of all the negatives around Carolina so far, one of the few positives has been that their offensive line ranks 5th in PFF pass blocking grade. All things considered, we have a pretty good idea of how this Panthers team is likely to try to move the ball and ultimately it all comes down to how much of an improvement Dalton is over the train wreck that came before him.

How las vegas Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel has had 10 days to prepare his offense to play without Tua Tagovailoa. Backup quarterback Skylar Thompson will step in for the Dolphins for at least this week.
• Seattle has won two slow-paced slugfests to start the 2024 season, a positive start to the Mike Macdonald era.
• It is early, but the Seahawks defense currently ranks second in the league in yards per play allowed and third in QB pressure rate.
• This game will be a chess match between an offensive mastermind for the Dolphins (McDaniel) and a defensive guru for the Seahawks (Macdonald), with McDaniel playing with less than a full deck. 
• Seattle’s offense was highly concentrated in Week 2 with Zach Charbonnet, DK Metcalf, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba hogging most of the usage.
• The Dolphins run defense has been exposed in back-to-back weeks, giving up big games against Jaguars and Bills running backs.

How Miami Will Try To Win ::

The Dolphins lost an ugly one on Thursday night of Week 2 to the Bills, but the bigger story was the loss of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa with a very scary looking concussion. Miami will be without Tua for at least the next four weeks and possibly longer, as he recovers from this situation in light of his past concussion history. In the wake of that, the Dolphins signed QB Tyler Huntley off the Cleveland Browns practice squad to add to their depth at the position and they will start QB Skylar Thompson. The last time we saw Thompson start was two seasons ago in the Dolphins’ Wild Card round 34-31 loss to the Bills in the playoffs. Miami has had 10 days to prepare for the change at quarterback and should have a game plan tailored to Thompson to give him a chance to succeed in a hostile environment.

The Dolphins have a terrific offensive coach in Mike McDaniel, who comes from the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree. One thing he is exceptionally good at is getting the ball in the hands of his playmakers in space to create yards after the catch. Tua Tagovailoa’s greatest strength in this system was likely how fast he processed information and got the ball out of his hands, leading all QBs in average time to throw. Thompson may still get it out quicker than the average quarterback, but it will be slower than Tua. We also know that Thompson has the ability to extend plays with his legs, which adds a slightly different dimension to the game than Tua brought. In Thompson’s brief appearance in Week 2, he was 8 for 14 passing for 80 yards with several bad missed throws. During that Bills loss in the playoffs a couple of years back, Thompson completed only 18 for 45 pass attempts. He is nowhere near as accurate of a passer as Tua, so the team’s passing efficiency will likely take a dip in that area as well.

So now that we know a little more about who will be under center for Miami, the question is how they approach this game. As discussed earlier, the Dolphins best chance at victory is to lean on their elite playmaking trio of Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and De’Von Achane rather than expecting Thompson to carry them. I would expect Hill and Waddle to be given the ball in some creative ways on Jet Sweeps, quick screens, and other wrinkles. Thompson’s accuracy issues should force Miami to do those things to ensure opportunities for Hill and Waddle to get the ball in their hands. De’Von Achane saw the biggest workload of his career in Week 2, with 29 opportunities while Raheem Mostert missed the game. He should once again be heavily involved and his speed will be key in slowing down the Seahawks pass rush. 

While Thompson is not a world beater by any means and will likely have his share of poor throws on Sunday, he is capable of doing some nice things. During that playoff loss two years ago, Thompson clearly got more comfortable as the game progressed and he got into a bit of a rhythm. Last week’s modest performance should not be viewed too harshly as it’s a tough spot to get thrown into. We should expect something similar this week with Thompson getting more comfortable after a drive or two as he will likely be given easier tasks early in the game. The Dolphins offense is most effective when it can stretch the field both horizontally and vertically with their speed, creating space and then attacking it. Expect them to spread Seattle out early and attack them in a more horizontal fashion which will force the Seahawks to compress the field a bit. I would then expect that sometime later in the first half, once Seattle is crowding the underneath stuff, the Dolphins will take a couple of deep shots off play action. At that point, even if the deep shots don’t connect, the Dolphins will have established threats both horizontally and vertically which should help to reduce the pressure that Thompson is dealing with in the pass rush. Seattle’s defense ranks 9th in the NFL in QB pressure rate, while the Dolphins have the 30th ranked offensive line in PFF’s pass blocking grades. Seattle head coach Mike Macdonald is known from his days in Baltimore for his exotic blitz packages and, although Seattle has not blitzed at a high rate yet this season, I am sure he has some things dialed up to throw at Thompson this week. Miami will have to alleviate that pressure if they want to give Thompson a chance to succeed.

How seattle Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike Johnson >>

• Detroit enters this game with a 1-1 record and averaging only 18 points per game in regulation after averaging 27.4 points per game in 2023.
• Arizona has had impressive performances to start the season and is coming off a dominant performance against the Rams in Week 2.
• Kyler Murray has looked as dynamic as any quarterback in the league through two weeks and is playing at a level that is as good as we have ever seen from him.
• Detroit’s run defense has once again been stout this year and their pass rush created all sorts of problems for the Tampa offense in Week 2.
• Arizona appears to be a sneaky contender in the NFC West as the Rams and 49ers have been decimated by injuries to star players.

How detroit Will Try To Win ::

Detroit’s offense leans on their running game but has been efficient and explosive over the last two seasons. They lost a tough one to Tampa Bay at home in Week 2 in which they failed to turn offensive production into points, as they accumulated 463 yards from scrimmage but managed only 16 points. That is quite the outlier for a team that ranked 5th in the NFL in points per game in 2023. Detroit had two failed 4th downs and two interceptions that negated offensive production and ultimately were the difference in the game. The Lions beat the Rams on a touchdown in overtime in Week 1 but managed only 20 points in regulation. It is not time to panic in Detroit, as their divisional foes have concerns of their own, but the Lions head on the road this week to face a Cardinals team with a lot of momentum that will be a difficult test.

Detroit’s offensive scheme can beat you in a variety of ways. Last week the Cardinals defense gave the Rams fits with their pressure, but that was largely due to the injuries Los Angeles is dealing with upfront. The Lions have arguably the best offensive line in the league and should give Jared Goff a clean pocket for most of the game. Arizona also has to deal with deep threats for the Lions that the Rams did not possess. Jameson Williams is a legitimate problem downfield and should open things up underneath for Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Sam LaPorta. Detroit’s offense is always going to feature a heavy dose of rushes and Arizona will have to commit to stopping that given Detroit’s multiple quality running backs and ability to open up holes. That, paired with the ability to stretch the field, should allow Jared Goff to operate effectively in the intermediate areas of the field. Arizona was in the bottom half of the league in blitz rate in 2023 and is bottom-10 in that category once again this year, as Jonathan Gannon’s defense has a relatively conservative “keep it in front of us” approach that is middle of the pack in the league in both man coverage rate and zone coverage rate. The Lions are going to be able to move the ball on the ground and through the air in this one, it’s just a matter of turning those yards into points this time.

How arizona Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike Johnson >>

• These teams were among the favorites in their respective conferences entering the season but now enter Sunday with many questions surrounding their 2024 outlook.
• Dallas has yet to play a competitive game, which makes it hard for us to see who/what they will be on both sides of the ball.
• Baltimore has had two games come down to the last play/possession.
• The Ravens blew their home opener against the Raiders in Week 2 and will likely have to lean on Lamar Jackson more going forward.
• The Cowboys offense clearly missed the presence of Jake Ferguson as they struggled to sustain drives against the Saints.

How baltimore Will Try To Win ::

Baltimore lost three games total (that mattered) during the 2023 regular season but has now lost two in the first 10 days of the 2024 season. Life comes at you fast. After a tough opening night loss to the Chiefs where they were an inch away from forcing overtime or potentially winning the game, Baltimore squandered their home opener against the Raiders. That game was marred by inefficiency in sustaining drives and self-inflicted penalties. The Ravens converted only 3 of 11 third downs and had eight more penalties than the Raiders which cost them 109 total yards. This was a game that Baltimore led by 10 points with 12 minutes remaining and lost in regulation. True to their word, Baltimore did not have Lamar Jackson run the ball as often in this game as they tried to keep their MVP quarterback in one piece. The early returns on that strategy are that they may struggle offensively without the threat of Jackson’s legs. Lamar had only 20 yards on three carries through three quarters of this game (he added 25 cheap yards on a desperation run to end regulation), after running for 122 yards against the Chiefs.

Baltimore has passed at a rate well below expectations through two weeks. They have also had different leading receivers in each of the first two weeks with Isaiah Likely having a huge Week 1, and Zay Flowers operating as the primary target in Week 2. Looking at things from a broader perspective and simplifying them a bit, the Ravens have the reigning MVP at quarterback but they have thrown the ball well below an expected rate and have actively deterred him from using perhaps his greatest weapon – his legs. It feels like this would be a good time to remember who they are. This offense must use Lamar’s legs, and the threat of those legs, in order to maximize its effectiveness. Baltimore got cute with things in Week 2, but that lesson has likely been learned. We should expect the Ravens to unleash Lamar and open up the offense in Week 3 as they look to get their season back on track.

From a player usage perspective beyond Lamar, many people will likely look at the running game since Dallas gave up four touchdowns and 180 yards from scrimmage to Alvin Kamara. However, Kamara did a lot of that damage in the receiving game and he is a different type of back than Baltimore has on their roster. The Ravens have used Derrick Henry in a clear early down and short yardage role, while Justice Hill is more of the passing down back. Both will be utilized, and there should be some open running lanes especially if the Ravens are leveraging the threat of Lamar’s legs to hold linebackers and create running lanes. Still, it would be a stretch to expect the backfield to do something similar to what Kamara did to Dallas. In the passing game, Mark Andrews bounced back with a solid game in Week 2. Andrews, Flowers, and Likely should be the obvious top options in the passing game and it is a bit of a coin flip which will be the top option in a given week. Rashod Bateman and Nelson Agholor will get some run and Justice Hill will see his targets vary depending on game flow, but the “Big 3” of Andrews, Flowers, and Likely is where things will need to be created from. 

How dallas Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• Both teams in this game are dealing with significant injuries to star players – Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel for the 49ers, and Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp for the Rams.
• These injuries seemingly condense usage and create opportunities for others, however, they also bring efficiency concerns for both offenses.
• The 49ers defense is once again a very good unit that is capable of exposing undermanned opponents like the Rams.
• The Los Angeles defense is dealing with some injuries and just gave up 41 points to the Cardinals, but they did not play nearly as badly as the scoreboard would indicate.

How san Francisco Will Try To Win ::

The 49ers offense played three games last season without Deebo Samuel (technically only two, but in the Browns game he was injured in the first quarter). San Francisco scored 17 points in each of those games against the Browns, Vikings, and Bengals – going 0-3 during that stretch. This week, San Francisco will be without Samuel, as well as star running back Christian McCaffrey. While the 49ers still have a lot of talent and an outstanding playcaller, the absence of both of their “movable chess pieces” and most versatile weapons removes a significant chunk of the playbook and limits the way the 49ers stress opposing defenses. 

San Francisco has run the ball well behind their very good offensive line in both games so far this season, as running back Jordan Mason has surpassed 100 yards in both games in a featured role replacing Christian McCaffrey. The Rams defense is certainly not a shutdown unit in the running game, so we should expect San Francisco to begin with a “smashmouth” approach and have a reasonable amount of success doing so. The 49ers passing game also moved the ball well against the Vikings last week, but a lack of red zone efficiency, multiple turnovers, and failure to protect Brock Purdy (six Vikings sacks) ultimately did them in.

For this game, we should expect a bit of a cat-and-mouse game between Kyle Shanahan and the Rams defense. The 49ers preferred weapons are clear and they will get them the ball. The Rams are undermanned in this matchup and will be focused on stopping the run and accounting for Aiyuk and Kittle. This sets up a perfect situation for Shanahan to set up some misdirection and play action plays that open up big plays for the “other guys.” Eventually, the 49ers will likely crack them, it may take a bit longer than some are expecting, however. It is also worth noting that the Rams potential offensive struggles should allow the 49ers to not force the issue and on short fields they will be able to simply take their points if they are in uncertain situations. 

How los Angeles Will Try To Win ::

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

After a boring Thursday night matchup, Week 3’s Showdowns become a lot more interesting on Sunday with the Chiefs visiting the Falcons. We’ve got a 46.5 total game with Kansas City favored by 3, which feels a bit on the low side to me, but I’m not really a game total sort of guy. What I do know is the Chiefs offense feels a lot more fun with some actual pass catchers after Travis Kelce, and the Falcons offense sure feels a lot more fun with some actual coaches sans Arthur Smith. 

Atlanta

We’ll start with the home team. The Falcons are feeling great after Philly gifted them a ton of extra time for a final drive, leading to a win, but now having to turn around and face the Chiefs next is a rough schedule. They’ll send out Bijan Robinson in a big lead-back role. Bijan has handled 32 carries and 10 targets through the first two games of the year but we do need to note that backup Tyler Allgeier went from 3 carries on 18% of the snaps in Week 1, to 9 carries and 1 target on 21% of the snaps in Week 2. I’d guess the latter is more where his role settles in, which would torpedo the folks who want Bijan to see 25+ touches per game. I’d guess Bijan settles into more of the 18-22 touch range but with a healthy dose of those coming in the passing game. I want to really like Bijan but he’s the most expensive player in the game and he’s attached to the weaker offense so it’s hard for me to really fall in love here. I believe his ceiling is massive and we just haven’t seen it yet, but that’s the kind of play I’d rather make on a main slate when I can get him at lower ownership vs. the ~50% ownership that the top plays tend to come in around on Showdown. I’ll probably end up trying to slightly overweight him in the captain spot but underweight him in flex. Allgeier falls into the “RB2s are valuable in Showdown” bucket – he’s a little too expensive for his workload, and he hasn’t had passing game involvement but if he falls into a touchdown or if something happens to Bijan he could quickly become a necessary piece.

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The Falcons passing game is a puzzle. When I wrote them up for their Week 2 Showdown, we had seen them coming off a game playing 12 personnel at a nearly 50% rate, leading to elevated snaps for tight ends Kyle Pitts and Charlie Woerner, while WR3 Ray-Ray McCloud played roughly half the snaps. Last week they played it completely differently, using almost no 12 personnel at all while boosting McCloud to 100% of the snaps. What this says to me is that Atlanta has an adjustable coaching staff who will look to game plan around how to best beat a specific opponent rather than just having an offensive identity that they stick to no matter what (if you’re a Falcons fan that’s a good thing). What will we see here? Well, through two games the Chiefs defense isn’t really getting to enemy quarterbacks all that effectively, with just four sacks so far – that leads me to think Atlanta plays in more 11 personnel sets in this one. Wide receivers Drake London and Darnell Mooney will be playing full-time roles regardless but this would boost McCloud into a full-time role as well while dinging the roles of Kyle Pitts and Woerner. The other important thing to note is that the five aforementioned players are the only Falcons pass catchers to play more than two offensive snaps in a game. If you want to take an MME shot on KhaDarel Hodge as the WR4, you can, but he hasn’t really seen the field yet this season. 

So far we only have 55 Kirk Cousins pass attempts to look at but they have been distributed thusly: 10 for London, 7 for Pitts, 10 for Mooney, 12 for McCloud, 10 for Bijan, and 6 for everyone else. Raise your hand if you had McCloud leading the team in targets on your bingo card. We’re at that weird early part in the season where we have a couple of games’ worth of data and need to decide how much faith to put in it…will these trends continue? Pricing is still largely based on our preseason conception of players. My take here is that McCloud is going to have a bigger role on this offense than we thought in preseason but I expect he won’t continue to be the target leader for long – that will probably go to London. At $8,800, London feels like a value, especially in builds that are telling a story of a Chiefs win. Mooney’s profile will always be pretty boom/bust as he’s a deep threat guy (3 catches last week for 88 yards and a score for 29.3 yards per catch) – viable play but volatile, especially as his price creeps up (I liked him more last week). McCloud’s volume gives him a pretty safe floor for $3,600 and he looks like a strong value option. Pitts…I don’t know what to do with. Similarly to what I put for him last week, I’m pretty down on him – he’s always been viewed as this super talented star in the making but we just haven’t seen it on the field and he’s now entering his 4th season. I heard someone describe him as an amazing athlete but not an amazing NFL player and that feels like it might be apt. He’s a player whose brand name tends to bring a fair amount of ownership, both on main slates and Showdowns, and so it’s not like we’re being sneaky by playing him even though he hasn’t been good. At this point, I feel like I want to see it from him before I invest. I’m not X’ing him out entirely but I will continue to be underweight the field on Pitts until we see some semblance of ceiling out of him.

Kansas City

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

We get not one but two Monday games this week. Extra Showdowns! This one has the Jags visiting the Bills for a 45.5 total game with Buffalo favored by 5. The Jags, of course, have struggled immensely in the early going, scoring just 30 points in their first two games on the way to an 0-2 record, while the Bills won a shootout against the Cardinals before curb-stomping the Dolphins in a game in which Tua Tagovailoa left early. 

Jacksonville

We’ll start with the Jags and their run game because holy wow this is weird. Travis Etienne is the most expensive skill position player on the slate and the second most expensive player overall at $11,000. He’s seen just 15 and 17 opportunities so far and would have scored single-digit DK points in each game had he not found the end zone. He’s played 70% and 72% of the snaps (good!) but he just isn’t getting the work you’d expect when he’s on the field (bad!). In Week 1, RB2 Tank Bigsby saw 12 opportunities despite playing just 32% of the snaps, while in Week 2, D’Ernest Johnson played the backup role (as Bigsby was hurt) and saw 5 carries. In terms of the percentage of RB workload, Etienne’s role was more robust in Week 2 but the challenge here is that he’s being priced like a bell cow despite the modest workloads we’ve seen and that the Jaguars are significant road underdogs. So what do we do with this? As I see it, we want to play Etienne on builds predicated on the Jags winning or keeping the game close. I do think we’re going to see his workload get back to normal, as snap counts are more predictive of future RB workload and scoring than past touch counts. It feels like a spot where we can perhaps pay up to be contrarian, as I expect a lot of people will be hesitant to roster Etienne at this price. To be clear, he’s not an awesome play, and I think he’s at real risk of being game-scripted out quickly if Buffalo plays from well ahead, but if the game stays close he could surprise us with his workload and the matchup is very favorable. 

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In the passing game, the Jags have looked pretty broken so far with Trevor Lawrence completing just 26 passes in two games for 382 yards and a single touchdown. Yikes. Keep in mind how high expectations were for this offense last season after T-Law’s 22-23 breakout, but then 23-24 was pretty bad for him, so this isn’t necessarily just a small two-game blip – it’s a continuation of a trend of mediocre performance that went on for most of last season. The pass catcher talent is there with a wide receiver corps of Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis, and Brian Thomas Jr. (or BTJ as we affectionately call him over in the props world), and Evan Engram at tight end (Engram is hurt and will miss this game) but the results have just been poor. But at least one Jag is going to be on the winning build and this team sure does seem more talented than they’ve shown . . .

Alright, so what we’ve seen so far is Kirk, Davis, and BTJ play almost all the wide receiver snaps, with Parker Washington in a very modest WR4 role (I’ll save myself time and note now that he’s a thin MME punt play if you want to go there). Through two games, Davis leads the group with 10 targets for 105 scoreless yards, BTJ has 8 targets and a 6/141/1 receiving line, while poor Kirk has 2 catches for 29 yards on 7 targets. And yet they’re priced in the exact opposite order as their production to date – this is because pricing at this point is largely based on last season’s numbers and “brand name” more than on what they’ve done through just the first two games of the season. Davis has the “revenge game” narrative, but more than that, he’s leading the team in targets and snaps, and yet he is the cheapest WR option. It’s hard not to like him at just $5,400. But, my favorite overall Jags pass catcher is BTJ – he’s still a very cheap $6,600, he’s leading the team in receiving yards, he’s been used on shorter routes and deep ones, and I feel confident that by the halfway point of the season, he’ll be the team’s clear WR1. It’s a spot to buy an ascending player who isn’t priced like one yet. Kirk is a tough sell – much like Etienne, we haven’t seen the workload or the results yet, but we know he’s a talented player and it feels like those results should come at some point. They have to . . . right? I thought Week 2 would be good for him with Engram out, and he would soak up more short area work but he only saw 3 targets. Yikes. I’m going to trust the longer-term sample. Given their prices, it’s hard to build rosters without any Jags pass catchers (which, I will note, makes it a nice contrarian play to do so). Still, overall, I want to invest here and bet that the Jags are not as bad as they’ve shown so far (plus the Bills have challenges of their own when it comes to roster construction, which we’ll get to). 

At tight end, Brenton Strange (who?) took over the primary role in Engram’s absence and turned 6 targets into a 3/65/0 receiving line. He’s still going to share the field some with Luke Farrell, but that was a pretty eye-opening performance for the 2023 second round pick in his first real, significant NFL opportunity. At $3,000, he feels like a reasonable value play, while Farrell looks like a player whose role is more likely to shrink than to grow and I’ll relegate him to the MME punt pile.

Buffalo

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

We close out Week 3 with the Commanders visiting the Bengals for a 47 total game in which Cincinnati is favored by just over a touchdown at -7.5. On the one hand, we have a Bengals offense that has underperformed (admittedly extremely high) expectations going back to the start of last season, while on the other, we have a Commanders offense that has yet to score a passing touchdown through two games. 

Cincinnati

We’ll start with the Bengals, where what was originally projected to be a timeshare at running back has actually seen Zack Moss playing 65% and 80% of the snaps compared to Chase Brown’s 33% and 20%, handling 26 opportunities while Brown has seen 10. This isn’t a timeshare, it’s a 1A/1B at most and a full-on RB1/RB2 situation at worst (well, worst for Brown – great for Moss). Funny to think Brown’s ADP was higher in Best Ball. Moss hasn’t seen a big workload yet but the Bengals are also 0-2 while only running 54.5 offensive plays per game so far. In a game in which they’re favored over a touchdown against a poor defense, I expect we’ll see Moss’s highest touch count of the young season. At just $7,800, he’s priced like a time-share back, making him an extremely strong play. Ja’Marr Chase obviously has the highest ceiling of any skill position player in the game but Moss is my favorite play when accounting for salary. Behind him, Brown is seeing enough work to be viewed through the “RB2 in Showdown” lens (the TL;DR here is “RB2s end up in optimal lineups at a higher rate than they are generally owned”). Brown’s worth some exposure, and I would go so far as to say I am considering a rule of “at least 1 of Moss/Brown in every lineup.” 

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The Bengals are getting Tee Higgins back, bringing their passing attack up to full strength for the first time this year. We have yet to really see any success for the Bengals through the air, but getting Higgins back is big and this matchup is super soft . . . feels like a blowup spot. Ja’Marr Chase has had a quiet start to the season but keep in mind that he faced the Patriots while not having much of a preseason in Week 1 and then in Week 2 the Chiefs double-teamed him the entire game with safety coverage. I would not be worried about him at all (and if you’re in season long leagues, it makes sense to try and see how the Chase owner is feeling about him and if you might have a shot to potentially buy at a discount). He should absolutely smash here, the only things that can hold him back are a blowout and “football is weird.” Higgins is a little tougher. Chase and Higgins have played 37 games together and in those games averages a line of 4.3/61/0.4. Not exactly awe-inspiring. Higgins is an extremely talented receiver, it’s just hard to share the field with someone like Chase without it impacting your production. I’ll play some of him, of course, but even despite the $2,800 salary difference, I have a strong preference for Chase here. Higgins’ return should mostly impact Trenton Irwin, I think, relegating him to the bench while leaving Andre Iosivas in the WR3 role. Yoshi is priced at $6,600 – he’s sitting around just a 15% target share on the season without Higgins, and I doubt it goes up now that Higgins is back. He’s a little too expensive for his role, while Irwin and WR5 Jermaine Burton can be viewed as MME punt options. 

At tight end, we’ve seen the Bengals play all of Drew Sample, Mike Gesicki, and rookie Erick All Jr. meaningful snaps. Gesicki is leading the group with 13 targets compared to 3 for Sample and 4 for All, but keep in mind the Bengals targeted their tight ends a combined 16 times last week against the Chiefs with Chase being bracketed the whole game. Higgins being back should open up the field more for Chase, and I’d expect the tight end target share to drop a fair bit. Gesicki is pretty clearly the most talented pass catcher of the group, and $5,600 feels like a pretty fair price to pay for him, while Sample and All are much riskier options (but also much cheaper). They all see the field a fair bit and often together in 12 personnel formations, and given their cheap prices, I don’t think I’d use a max 1 rule here, but probably max 2 of these guys plus Iosivas and the backup WRs. 

Washington