XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
We close out Week 3 with the Commanders visiting the Bengals for a 47 total game in which Cincinnati is favored by just over a touchdown at -7.5. On the one hand, we have a Bengals offense that has underperformed (admittedly extremely high) expectations going back to the start of last season, while on the other, we have a Commanders offense that has yet to score a passing touchdown through two games.
Cincinnati
We’ll start with the Bengals, where what was originally projected to be a timeshare at running back has actually seen Zack Moss playing 65% and 80% of the snaps compared to Chase Brown’s 33% and 20%, handling 26 opportunities while Brown has seen 10. This isn’t a timeshare, it’s a 1A/1B at most and a full-on RB1/RB2 situation at worst (well, worst for Brown – great for Moss). Funny to think Brown’s ADP was higher in Best Ball. Moss hasn’t seen a big workload yet but the Bengals are also 0-2 while only running 54.5 offensive plays per game so far. In a game in which they’re favored over a touchdown against a poor defense, I expect we’ll see Moss’s highest touch count of the young season. At just $7,800, he’s priced like a time-share back, making him an extremely strong play. Ja’Marr Chase obviously has the highest ceiling of any skill position player in the game but Moss is my favorite play when accounting for salary. Behind him, Brown is seeing enough work to be viewed through the “RB2 in Showdown” lens (the TL;DR here is “RB2s end up in optimal lineups at a higher rate than they are generally owned”). Brown’s worth some exposure, and I would go so far as to say I am considering a rule of “at least 1 of Moss/Brown in every lineup.”
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The Bengals are getting Tee Higgins back, bringing their passing attack up to full strength for the first time this year. We have yet to really see any success for the Bengals through the air, but getting Higgins back is big and this matchup is super soft . . . feels like a blowup spot. Ja’Marr Chase has had a quiet start to the season but keep in mind that he faced the Patriots while not having much of a preseason in Week 1 and then in Week 2 the Chiefs double-teamed him the entire game with safety coverage. I would not be worried about him at all (and if you’re in season long leagues, it makes sense to try and see how the Chase owner is feeling about him and if you might have a shot to potentially buy at a discount). He should absolutely smash here, the only things that can hold him back are a blowout and “football is weird.” Higgins is a little tougher. Chase and Higgins have played 37 games together and in those games averages a line of 4.3/61/0.4. Not exactly awe-inspiring. Higgins is an extremely talented receiver, it’s just hard to share the field with someone like Chase without it impacting your production. I’ll play some of him, of course, but even despite the $2,800 salary difference, I have a strong preference for Chase here. Higgins’ return should mostly impact Trenton Irwin, I think, relegating him to the bench while leaving Andre Iosivas in the WR3 role. Yoshi is priced at $6,600 – he’s sitting around just a 15% target share on the season without Higgins, and I doubt it goes up now that Higgins is back. He’s a little too expensive for his role, while Irwin and WR5 Jermaine Burton can be viewed as MME punt options.
At tight end, we’ve seen the Bengals play all of Drew Sample, Mike Gesicki, and rookie Erick All Jr. meaningful snaps. Gesicki is leading the group with 13 targets compared to 3 for Sample and 4 for All, but keep in mind the Bengals targeted their tight ends a combined 16 times last week against the Chiefs with Chase being bracketed the whole game. Higgins being back should open up the field more for Chase, and I’d expect the tight end target share to drop a fair bit. Gesicki is pretty clearly the most talented pass catcher of the group, and $5,600 feels like a pretty fair price to pay for him, while Sample and All are much riskier options (but also much cheaper). They all see the field a fair bit and often together in 12 personnel formations, and given their cheap prices, I don’t think I’d use a max 1 rule here, but probably max 2 of these guys plus Iosivas and the backup WRs.
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