Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Another week, another opportunity for Todd Bowles to blitz a rookie quarterback relentlessly.
- The Buccaneers are extremely banged up on the defensive side of the ball, with all of CB Jamel Dean (limited, knee), DT William Gholston (DNP, knee), DE Logan Hall (limited, foot), DB Josh Hayes, (DNP, ankle), DT Calijah Kancey (DNP, calf), NT Vita Vea (DNP, knee), and S Antoine Winfield Jr. (DNP, foot) on the injury report on Wednesday.
- The Broncos have been largely unimaginative and cautious on early downs this season, which is likely a nod to how the coaching staff views their starting quarterback more than anything else. They’re simply trying to not fall too far behind the sticks on early downs. This has led to a poor sustained-drive rate and susceptibility to playing their hand face up.
- One of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, or Jalen McMillan is likely to have a strong cost-considered game here, assuming the Broncos continue forward with an elevated Cover-1 utilization rate.
How DENVER Will Try To Win ::
First off, Bo Nix is not ready to run an NFL offense. Almost the entirety of the tape through two professional starts has consisted of one read and then a dump-off over the middle of the field, with Sean Payton presenting leaking running backs, tight ends, and any of his tall wide receivers as the outlet over the short-to-intermediate middle of the field. We know Payton and offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi want to introduce more trickeration (in my best John Madden voice), something they largely haven’t been able to utilize due to an inability to sustain drives through two weeks. That said, they did execute a trick play last week in which Nix was lined up out wide, got the football on a lateral after a direct snap to Javonte Williams and a reverse, then completed a deep pass downfield to Josh Reynolds for 49 yards. The fun then ended as Nix threw an interception in the end zone two plays later.
In fact, Nix has yet to throw a touchdown and the lone touchdown scored by this offense through two weeks was a Nix rush from four yards out with only 2:09 remaining in the fourth quarter of a Week 1 loss to the Seahawks. Their 64.80% overall pass rate tells the rest of the story regarding the game environments they have found themselves in to start the season, which also helps to explain the 28 pressures Nix has faced through two games (on 81 dropbacks). Nix is now set to face an opposing head coach (and defensive play caller) that has developed one of the more intricate defensive schemes in the league, blending former Tampa-2 concepts into a zone-heavy, Cover-3-and-Cover-4-heavy defense with unique blitz packages. But the question at hand is how we think the Broncos approach trying to win this game, to which I would respond “they’re probably just trying not to lose it.”
Javonte Williams saw his snap rate jump from 52% in Week 1 to 66% in a closely contested Week 2 game, going from 10 opportunities to 16 in the process. When analyzing this offense, it must be done through the understanding that Payton and Lombardi are most effective when they can leverage a competent run game, preferring to draw up motion, play action, and trickery only after the run game has gotten going.
Their first-down play calls against the Steelers went as follows: Williams rush for three yards, Williams reception for six yards, pass to Michael Burton for one yard (fullback), Williams carry for four yards, pass to Lil’ Jordan Humphrey for four yards, incomplete pass on throwaway, Williams carry for five yards, Williams carry for three yards, the 49-yard trick play, Williams carry for one yard, Williams carry for one yard, pass to Williams for eight yards, deep shot incomplete pass, pass to Greg Dulcich for no gain, Williams carry for two yards, incomplete pass short to Dulcich, pass to Dulcich in the flat for nine yards, outlet to Humphrey, pass to Williams.
Everything they’re doing on first down is to not fall behind the sticks, which likely has as much to do with Nix as it does with Payton and Lombardi. The feasibility of this approach against the Buccaneers likely comes down to the health of Vea on the other side, who missed practice Wednesday with a knee injury.
In a continuation of the pass-game tendencies we saw from this team in 2023, the Broncos have utilized a rotation of eight different pass catchers between wide receiver and tight end in each game this season. Also in a continuation of previous tendencies, practice-squad wide receiver Humphrey has been elevated in back-to-back weeks to go on to play 30% and 77% snap rates. And then there’s the curious cases of Marvin Mims and Troy Franklin, two guys that cannot buy snaps for this offense, playing just 33 total combined snaps through two weeks.
Based on the early-down tendencies thus far, Payton and Lombardi seem to be prioritizing the size and blocking abilities of Courtland Sutton, Reynolds, and Humphrey, even though the clear top playmaker on the roster is Mims. Furthering the struggles of the offense through the air to start the season is the predictability of the offensive play calling, with the team routinely in long down-and-distance situations throughout the game. That is a recipe for disaster against Bowles and his unique defense.
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