Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Deshaun Watson is legit broken. His throwing mechanics are off, his arm strength is nonexistent, and he looks like he’s launching a shot put when throwing the football.
- Amari Cooper has four drops through two weeks but ranks eighth in aDOT (18.9) and first in air yards, although with that comes a first-ranked unrealized air-yards number (159), an 80th-ranked target-quality rating, and an 81st-ranked catchable-target rate.
- Jerome Ford commanded the backfield opportunities in a blowout loss in Week 1 before seeing just 33.3% of the backfield opportunities in a Week 2 game in which the team largely controlled throughout with their defense.
- Browns defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz is going to have a heyday against Daniel Jones after showing five to six players along the line of scrimmage at an extreme rate in the team’s first two games.
- Brian Daboll simplified the offense for Jones in Week 2 against the Commanders, spreading the pass catchers horizontally and running heavy rates of comeback and curl routes designed to flash numbers to Jones. While that increased his efficiency through the air, it left little room for yards after the catch. Against the Browns, that spells trouble.
How new york Will Try To Win ::
The Giants rank 21st in pass rate over expectation (PROE) but sixth in overall pass rate at 63.87%, with that ratio heavily skewed by a blowout loss to the Vikings in Week 1 and a narrow defeat at the hands of the Commanders in Week 2 due to an injured kicker. Looking at this matchup and how we expect Daboll to approach this spot, we’re likely to see the Giants start the game with a run-balanced nature considering a 31st-ranked pressure-differential matchup on pass situations and 32nd-ranked pass-matchup differential. That should eventually lead to a higher pass rate as the game moves on against the stout Cleveland defense, which could put Jones under duress at extreme rates. It will be up to Daboll to dial up quick hits to Malik Nabers and Wan’Dale Robinson or else things could get ugly fast. Nabers erupted for a 10-127-1 line on a ridiculous 18 targets against the Commanders in Week 2, but that was against an opponent largely incapable of generating organic pressure. This one has a much higher chance of developing into a situation similar to what we saw in Week 1 against the Vikings, in which the Giants were relegated to short-area passing, feeding Robinson 12 targets to the seven of Nabers. What the Giants did differently in Week 2 was going more spread on passing plays in an attempt to get Nabers more space on the perimeter, but the design of the offense was atrocious. Route structure was extremely predictable and Daboll attempted to simplify things for Jones by giving him multiple options with receivers legitimately squared up to him showing their numbers. I think I heard “Nabers comes back to the football” on the tape on every reception – it was bad. While that makes things easier on your quarterback, it largely limits the receiver’s ability to generate anything after the catch. The lone exception to that was Nabers in Week 2, when he made multiple athletic plays to shake first contact and gain additional yards with the football in his hands – again, against the Commanders.
Veteran journeyman running back Devin Singletary continued to play a sub-workhorse role for the Giants in Week 2, handling 17 opportunities (a robust 94.4% opportunity share) on a 79% snap rate. If not for the low total opportunities induced via game script through two weeks, we might be talking about Singletary as a true workhorse. The problem against the Browns is there appears to be very little chance the Giants are able to feed Singletary a robust workload considering matchup and expected game environment. Tyrone Tracy is the clear change-of-pace option but has seen just six total opportunities through two weeks, while Eric Gray has seen just seven offensive snaps. Consider Singletary a good bet to see 15-17 weekly opportunities for an offense that could find it difficult to find the end zone against the Browns.
Seeing 18 targets on 28 pass attempts is borderline ridiculous, but that is exactly the kind of usage Nabers enjoyed in Week 2. But that also drives home the fact the rookie receiver represents the Giants’ best chances of moving the football on a roster largely devoid of talent behind Nabers. As was covered above, Daboll spread the offense out against the Commanders in an attempt to get Nabers more space, but the route structure was so bad that Nabers could do little with the football after the reception. Nabers also had a costly drop on fourth down on the team’s final possession that ended up costing the team the game, but that’s a small blemish on an otherwise massive outing. Look for Daboll to continue the spread nature of the offense here, something that’s far less likely to be effective against a much stiffer opponent. Behind Nabers, Robinson and tight end Theo Johnson also ran a high rate of short-area, numbers-to-Jones routes in Week 2 and could be asked to step up more pending the status of Cleveland corner Denzel Ward, who managed just 11 defensive snaps in Week 2 as he fights through a shoulder injury. The injury has influenced his coverage span, as it has made it hard for the veteran to lift his arm above his chest. Ward being limited again in Week 3 would theoretically increase the Giants’ chances of moving the football, although the Browns defensive front should put Jones under much more duress than he saw a week ago.
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