Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Eagles WRs A.J. Brown and Johnny Wilson have to practice this week (as of Thursday), while S C.J. Gardner-Johnson was added to the injury report on Thursday after practicing in full Wednesday.
- Saints QB/TE/RB/FB/WR Taysom Hill did not practice Wednesday with a chest injury.
- The Saints have been a fun watch through two weeks, not only because they’re hanging 40-burgers on the reg, but because of how well-designed and intricate their offensive structure has been. It’s becoming a situation where I don’t want any other game on the tele when they play.
- The Eagles are not currently equipped to handle some of the nuanced schematic elements of Saints coordinator Klint Kubiak’s offense, meaning it will likely be the Saints pushing the game environment and the Eagles left to respond.
HoW PHILADELPHIA Will Try To Win ::
The Eagles don’t have the same elite linebackers and secondary as they did in previous seasons, something that has become clearly evident over the first two weeks. So far this season, the Eagles have allowed the most yards per carry (6.4) and sixth-most points per game (25.5), escaping Week 1 with a narrow victory over the Packers before falling at home in outrageous fashion to the Falcons. In that Week 2 loss, Nick Sirianni handled the fourth quarter horribly and then turned around and blamed his quarterback and running back in the post-game presser. Not a great look, Nick.
The play in question came on third down with under two minutes remaining with the team up three points, and the Falcons without any remaining timeouts. Instead of hammering the football twice on the ground with either running back Saquon Barkley or quarterback Jalen Hurts, Sirianni elected to call a rollout pass play to Barkley in the flat. Barkley ultimately dropped the pass, resulting in a stopped clock and a field-goal attempt. Dude, just run the ball twice and eat up an additional 1:20 in game clock. A field goal does absolutely nothing there. Anyway, it struck me the wrong way the way Sirianni handled the situation, not to mention his post-game comments.
That said, Kellen Moore’s offense looks legitimately good, both on tape and on paper. The problem thus far hasn’t been the offense, it’s been a defense that can’t figure out how to get teams off the field. Saquon Barkley has reclaimed legitimate workhorse usage in Philadelphia, handling 87.7% of the offensive snaps (first), 93.0% of the backfield opportunities (third), 46 carries to go along with seven targets, and a ridiculous 15 red-zone opportunities through two games. The Philadelphia offensive line is humming, while Barkley has forced nine missed tackles to go along with 3.57 yards after contact per attempt. Kenneth Gainwell is still the clear change-of-pace back but has seen a grand total of three carries through two games. The matchup against the Saints looks horrid on paper, considering New Orleans has allowed just 3.1 yards per carry thus far. But those two games came against the hapless Panthers and a Cowboys team with a running back depth chart that is likely a bottom-three unit on paper. The Saints play primarily from Cover-1, Cover-2, and Cover-3, leading to a well above-average 61.2% single-high alignment rate. In other words, they likely aren’t this good against the run. They have shown a ton of base 4-3, with an athletic linebacker unit that moves and shifts a lot prior to the snap. Typically, you’re going to see man/gap concepts have a higher efficiency against that base, something we have to assume Moore is tracking for this matchup, potentially setting up a situation where Barkley sees more than the 39% man/gap blocking he had run behind through two weeks.
The Eagles shifted to a heavier rate of 12-personnel without Brown in Week 2 against the Falcons, jumping to 40% 12 utilization. That left only DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert as near every-down pass catchers. Considering the state of the roster behind those two plus Barkley, I don’t think there’s much room to grow behind them with guys like Jahan Dotson, Britain Covey, Wilson, and Parris Campbell. But we’ve had a situation like this before with the Eagles – when one of their primary guys are out, they typically just get more concentrated around the remaining primary options. As such, expect a large portion of the offense to flow through Smith, Barkley, and Goedert. Goedert currently has a laughable 3.8-yard aDOT, meaning there isn’t a ton of upside beyond Smith and Barkley.
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