XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Oh, man. After two weeks of island games that looked exciting (at least when I wrote them up), now we get the Patriots at the Jets. This game has a 38.5 total with New York favored by 6.5, which means the Patriots team total is . . . wait for it . . . 16 points. Eek. But there’s money to be made, so let’s see if we can figure this out.
New England
On the Patriots side, Rhamondre Stevenson’s role has been elite to start the season. He’s played 75% of the offensive snaps and handled 28 and 26 opportunities in their two games so far (46 carries, 8 targets). That’s just a fantastic role (what I was hoping for last season when I was drafting him so high in Best Ball!). The problem is that the Patriots have played the Bengals and the Seahawks so far, but I think the Jets are going to be a different type of defense. Obviously, we don’t have a lot of data yet but the Jets were gashed by San Francisco (who hasn’t been) but then went on the road and held the Titans to 17 points. The Patriots offense is closer to the Titans than it is to the 49ers (sorry Pats fans) so the odds of a massive game are low but the volume should be there, and in a really low-total game, Rhamondre is one of the guys who can feasibly get there just on workload without scoring a touchdown. The other tricky thing here is that DK (finally) is tightening up Showdown pricing after a few really loose ones to start the year, and Rhamondre is $11.4k. That is historically a huge price for him, or any running back, and I think that’s likely to keep his ownership in check. I’d view him as a safe floor play where you can also likely pay up to be contrarian, but his median outcome is not exactly great for his salary. Behind Rhamondre, Antonio Gibson has handled 18 carries and 1 target. Gibson is generally viewed as a strong pass catcher so the lack of passing game involvement is a little odd to me, but as long as he’s just being used as a 2-down breather back, that really limits his role. He rocked Seattle for 96 yards on just 11 carries but will find it tougher to pull something like that off against the Jets, leaving him likely needing a spike in receiving work or a vultured touchdown in order to pay off.
Showdown Ownership Projections!
Ownership updates automatically
In the passing game . . . yikes. Let’s first note that the Patriots have attempted 24 and 27 passes in their two games so far, and let’s further note that the Jets offense plays VERY slowly (as you’d expect from a team quarterbacked by Aaron Rodgers). Between a glacially slow pace of play and an offense that wants to keep the ball on the ground, it’s hard to get excited about the Patriots receiving corps. So far we’ve seen them not really employ any full-time receivers with K.J. Osborn, Demario Douglas, Ja’Lynn Polk, and Tyquan Thornton splitting the wide receiver roles. Only once has any of those guys gone over 62% of the snaps (Osborn in Week 2), and only once has anyone gone below 54% (Thornton, also in Week 2). Osborn leads the position in targets with 8, Douglas has 3, Polk has 4, and Thornton has 3. Cooper Kupp BY HIMSELF had more targets than the entire Patriots wide receiver group has had. Fun times. It’s really tough for me to make sense of this and pick out a strong play because, frankly, they are ALL dart throws. Osborn currently has the biggest role but we’re splitting hairs because all of these roles are awful. If you make me pick, I think Polk is the most talented of the bunch and he was showing some ability to separate on his routes in Week 1, so over time I think he emerges as the WR1 here. And, I’d much rather take Patriots wide receivers than random TE3 types who are only on the field for 15% of offensive plays. At least these guys are on the field, and you have to be on the field for good things to happen. But man. It’s tough here.
Tight end is the one bright spot where Hunter Henry leads all Patriots skill position plays in offensive snaps while Austin Hooper has a pretty robust backup role with 55% and 54% of the offensive snaps in their two games. Henry is coming off of a monster 12 target game last week and has 15 on the season while Hooper is sitting at 5. So, we can safely view Hooper as being roughly in the same bucket as the rest of the Patriots wideouts, while Henry looks to have the best role of all Pats pass catching options. The problem is that he’s priced like it at $7,800 – that’s quite a price spike for Henry based on one big game, and it really tamps down the excitement to play him (especially because while he had a huge Week 2, in Week 1 he saw just 3 targets). Good grief. This team.
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