XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
It’s Week 7 and we’re already a third of the way through the season and we get . . . Broncos at Saints. Fun. This is a 37 point game total with Denver favored by 2.5. The Saints have been absolutely walloped by injuries. Derek Carr is expected to miss as well as their two top wide receivers (Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed) while Taysom Hill is listed as doubtful.
New Orleans
Alvin Kamara is also listed as questionable but he did practice on Tuesday so I expect he’ll play. Kamara has been handling elite workloads this season, averaging over 70% of the snaps per game (higher if you note his Weeks 1 and 2 snaps were cut due to the Saints blowing out their opponents), and averaging 17.3 carries and 6 targets per game. Especially when you consider the Saints have been involved in three absolute blowouts out of just six games, that workload is elite. With both Olave and Shaheed out, Kamara should get all the work he can handle in this one as long as the game remains competitive (and with Denver’s offense not exactly being elite, it’s reasonable to expect a competitive game). Rookie QB Spencer Rattler targeted him 8 times last week for a 20% target share, something we should expect to continue. Everything lines up here for Kamara except that the matchup against Denver’s defense is not a good one but he’s still my favorite overall play. He’ll also be the highest owned play on the slate, I’m sure. So, you can either take the really big stand of avoiding him and crossing your fingers, or you can just play him and figure out how to be different elsewhere. Behind Kamara, Jamaal Williams has not been getting a lot of work lately with 13 total touches in the last four games (he got more work in Weeks 1 and 2 when the Saints crushed their opponents). On paper, he looks like an awful play but just hear me out on one scenario. What if the Saints, missing their top two pass catchers, decide to actually do the “both RBs on the field at the same time” that we often hear about in preseason but never actually happens? There is at least a path where they use Kamara more as a pass catcher and Williams as a runner . . . it’s thin, to be sure, but I expect that Williams will be both very low owned and that the majority who play him won’t pair him with Kamara, so it’s at least something to think about as a contrarian tournament play. I should also mention it’s possible that Kendre Miller could be active for this one (he was activated from IR last week but didn’t play). That would introduce an RB3 to the mix. I wouldn’t play Jamaal or Kendre together as I think they’ll compete for the RB2 role, but we could possibly see a viable RB2 out of this situation.
Showdown Ownership Projections!
Ownership updates automatically
The New Orleans pass catching situation is awfully tricky to figure out. Last week, Olave played just 3 snaps and the biggest beneficiary of his absence was somebody named Bub Means (I seriously had no idea who this guy even was at the time). Cedrick Wilson and Mason Tipton both played a little bit more, but Means went from playing a tiny handful of snaps to playing 71% of the snaps, second most of any wide receiver behind Shaheed. If it was only Olave being out I would say to be cautious here because how a team responds to injury during a game and how they respond with a week to prepare can be very different, but with Shaheed also out, that leaves just Wilson, Tipton, and Means healthy of the 5 WRs they’ve been carrying. They’ll call up a couple of practice squad guys, but I expect those three will play the most. Means certainly made the most of his opportunity, catching 5 of 8 targets for 45 yards and a score. At just $4,000, he looks like a very strong play on paper, despite what is clearly a difficult matchup (that said, the individual cornerback matchup won’t be awful as Broncos top cornerback Patrick Surtain is out for this game). Wilson’s a guy who’s had success in the past when given an opportunity so I actually like him quite a bit here and expect he’ll carry less ownership than Means given the difference between their results last week. Tipton is an undrafted rookie who I think it’s hard to have much confidence in at all. He’s a tourney punt option, but he’s my least favorite of the Saints three primary wideouts. Whoever they call up from the practice squad can be viewed as MME plays as well but keep in mind the Saints have Kamara and tight ends who can soak up targets, so the ancillary WRs may not play much at all.
Speaking of tight end, Juwan Johnson is another logical beneficiary of New Orleans injury woes but he’s also $6,800 and saw just 3 targets last week on 40 pass attempts from Rattler. The other Saints tight end, Foster Moreau, is on the field less and is more of a blocker but he does have a couple of touchdowns on the season as well as a nice 41 yard catch last week. It’s really hard for me to parse this all out because this whole situation screams volatility to me. I think Means, Wilson, and Johnson are the safest options (as in I expect them to both be on the field and to get volume) while Moreau and Tipton are next (they’ll be on the field but may not see many/any targets). Good luck.
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