Game Overview ::
By PAPY324 >>
- The most notable injury-related DNP early in the week from either side is Jerome Ford, who missed Wednesday’s practice with a hamstring injury.
- This is a matchup between two teams that had high preseason hopes and have three combined wins.
- Deshaun Watson has been a nightmare for the Browns, but he’s so cheap he must be considered for DFS.
- Nick Chubb returns this week. Coachspeak has been ambiguous about his usage, but logically it would make sense that he won’t have a full workload.
- The Browns traded Amari Cooper, opening up a lot of targets. The Browns’ primary pass catchers are all incredibly cheap.
- Joe Burrow is game-flow-dependent. When the Bengals’ opponents can score, Burrow can post a tournament-winning day.
- Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are highly correlated with Burrow and their big games also show up when the Bengals’ opponents can keep pace.
- Zack Moss got benched for fumbling last week but had played over 60% of the snaps in every game before that this season. The Bengals’ backfield might settle into a true 50/50 timeshare.
How cincinnati Will Try To Win ::
The Bengals limp into Week 7 with a 2-4 record, two games behind the Steelers and Ravens in the AFC North. What happened to Cincinnati? A team that was expected to compete for the Super Bowl with Burrow returning to health this season is fighting to keep its playoff hopes alive early in the year. From a 10,000-foot view, the Bengals are probably better than their record. They’re two games under .500 with a +5 point differential. Look a little closer, and after a bad Week 1 loss to the Patriots with a fresh-off-a-summer-long-holdout Chase, the Bengals have lost one-score games to the Chiefs, Ravens (in OT), and the better-than-expected Commanders. It wouldn’t take much for the Bengals to be 4-2 or better, but in our timeline, they’re in jeopardy of falling out of playoff contention in the first half of the season. What happened in those three close losses against good competition? The Bengals’ defense let them down. The Bengals scored 26 // 33 // 38 points in those three games. Zac Taylor is an offensive-minded coach, but there is no amount of offense that will make you a winning team if you go 0-3 in games where you average 32 points.
The Bengals are one of the few teams still favoring the pass – they’re second in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) – with a PROE value that even a couple years ago would’ve been good for a top-five mark in the league. It makes sense that the Bengals want to throw, since they’re good at passing (No. 6 in DVOA) and middling (No. 15 in DVOA) at running. They’re also playing at a deliberate (20th in seconds per play) pace. This isn’t a departure from how they’ve played in previous seasons under Taylor with a healthy Burrow. This week they draw a Browns team who has been below average (20th in DVOA) against the pass, and equally as susceptible (20th in DVOA) on the ground. The Browns have had a good pass rush (No. 9 in sack percentage), and the Bengals’ O-line hasn’t been great (23rd-ranked by PFF), but if rookie RT Amarius Mims can continue to improve, the Bengals’ O-line should be able to do enough to keep Burrow upright. There isn’t anything in the matchup that should tilt the Bengals away from their usual method of attack. Expect a game plan that is predicated on throwing, with the idea of putting up enough points to protect their suspect defense.
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