XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Week 7 closes out with the Chargers visiting the Cardinals for a 44 total game in which the Chargers, surprisingly (at least to me) are favored by a point and a half. I thought this was odd and then I realized that somehow the Chargers are 3-2 and have allowed just 13.2 points per game . . . like . . . what? I don’t tend to pay a ton of attention to the Chargers but apparently their defense has been ridiculously elite despite not being especially great at pressuring the QB and allowing only slightly below average rushing and passing yardage. They’ve just been really good at not letting drives become scores, and they’ve been quite good at getting turnovers at just the right time. I do think their defense is above average, but being THIS good feels like more luck than skill. Perhaps why Vegas has Arizona with a team total of roughly 21 points, well above what LA has allowed per game.
Arizona
The Cards run game has been odd this year. James Conner is clearly their bell cow back with one of the stronger roles in the league . . . in most games. But, when they’re getting whomped (and remember, they’re bad), they’re fairly quick to turn it over to some combination of Emari Demercado and Trey Benson. This is a game with a close spread and the Chargers are not exactly an offensive powerhouse, so it’s pretty likely that it remains close, which means Conner is likelier to see the higher end of his range of outcomes. In the “heavy” Conner games he’s seen 20, 22, 19, and 22 opportunities – very nice. His passing game role has been a bit lighter than expected, with just 9 targets in those four games, but overall that’s a solid workload despite a mediocre matchup. He also has a stranglehold on goal line usage, as no other Arizona running back has touched the ball inside the 10 yard line (nor, interestingly, has Kyler attempted to run close into the goal). Strong workload and great goal line role, but a mediocre matchup – overall he’s priced about where he should be and is a reasonable option. Behind him Benson is questionable with an illness, and should he miss, that opens up more work for Demercado, but if the game remains close neither of these guys look awesome. Worth noting: Demercado saw 7 targets last week while the Cardinals were down big to Green Bay so there is a path to some ceiling for him in negative game scripts.
Showdown Ownership Projections!
Ownership updates automatically
The Cards passing game gets Marvin Harrison Jr. back, who didn’t even miss one game after suffering a concussion last week. Harrison has been extremely boom/bust so far, catching just 17 of 37 targets but putting up a 279/4 line on those 17 catches. His three best games, however, came against the Rams (awful defense all around), the Lions (huge pass funnel defense), and the Commanders (pretty bad all around). He’s super talented and can obviously hit in any matchup, but this doesn’t feel like the ideal spot to spend $10k for him (and in the games he hasn’t hit he’s scored 0, 1.4, and 5.6 DK points – the 0 was the concussion game, but still, it’s very all-or-nothing with MHJ). Michael Wilson fills the WR2 role, which has been fairly low upside with how this offense is just built around other pieces. He’s also $7,600, which seems wildly expensive for a guy with 30 targets on the season and a season-high of 14.4 DK points – seems like a spot where he was priced up in case MHJ missed. He’s a fairly thin pay up to be contrarian tournament option. OWS favorite Greg Dortch mans the slot but the role has been shaky as the Cards have run 12 personnel at one of the league’s highest rates this year, limiting Dortch to a high of 66% of the snaps (and an average of something like 52%) in games that Trey McBride plays in. Dortch is your prototypical low-volume slot receiver, which means he generally needs a lot of volume in order to pay off, and with the Cards passing game healthy and priced up to $5,200 from $3,800 the week before, he’s also a hard sell. Xavier Weaver stepped in as MHJ’s direct backup, playing 71% of the snaps but with 0 catches on a single target, I expect he goes back to the bench now, which just leaves Zach Pascal in a very modest rotational WR role. Meh. Finally, Zay Jones is over his suspension and hamstring injury – his return most likely impacts Dortch, I think, but we haven’t seen it play out. I’d definitely max 1 of Dortch and Jones, and think it’s possible that Jones could go overlooked in his first game back.
At tight end, Trey McBride has been the steadiest pass catcher in this offense, and while MHJ’s arrival takes away some of the ceiling that we saw from him last season, he’s seen at least 6 targets in every game he’s played in. He’s the highest floor receiving option on the Cards, and while MHJ has a higher ceiling, McBride’s isn’t that far behind. You can probably guess at this point that I prefer McBride to MHJ, and you’d be right. TE2 Elijah Higgins is on the field enough to be viewed as a modest value option, while TE3 Tip Reiman is primarily a blocker without a real passing game role.
You must be logged in to add notes about a game.