Kickoff Thursday, Oct 17th 8:15pm Eastern

Broncos (
20) at

Saints (
17)

Over/Under 37.0

Tweet
Notes

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

It’s Week 7 and we’re already a third of the way through the season and we get . . . Broncos at Saints. Fun. This is a 37 point game total with Denver favored by 2.5. The Saints have been absolutely walloped by injuries. Derek Carr is expected to miss as well as their two top wide receivers (Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed) while Taysom Hill is listed as doubtful. 

New Orleans

Alvin Kamara is also listed as questionable but he did practice on Tuesday so I expect he’ll play. Kamara has been handling elite workloads this season, averaging over 70% of the snaps per game (higher if you note his Weeks 1 and 2 snaps were cut due to the Saints blowing out their opponents), and averaging 17.3 carries and 6 targets per game. Especially when you consider the Saints have been involved in three absolute blowouts out of just six games, that workload is elite. With both Olave and Shaheed out, Kamara should get all the work he can handle in this one as long as the game remains competitive (and with Denver’s offense not exactly being elite, it’s reasonable to expect a competitive game). Rookie QB Spencer Rattler targeted him 8 times last week for a 20% target share, something we should expect to continue. Everything lines up here for Kamara except that the matchup against Denver’s defense is not a good one but he’s still my favorite overall play. He’ll also be the highest owned play on the slate, I’m sure. So, you can either take the really big stand of avoiding him and crossing your fingers, or you can just play him and figure out how to be different elsewhere. Behind Kamara, Jamaal Williams has not been getting a lot of work lately with 13 total touches in the last four games (he got more work in Weeks 1 and 2 when the Saints crushed their opponents). On paper, he looks like an awful play but just hear me out on one scenario. What if the Saints, missing their top two pass catchers, decide to actually do the “both RBs on the field at the same time” that we often hear about in preseason but never actually happens? There is at least a path where they use Kamara more as a pass catcher and Williams as a runner . . . it’s thin, to be sure, but I expect that Williams will be both very low owned and that the majority who play him won’t pair him with Kamara, so it’s at least something to think about as a contrarian tournament play. I should also mention it’s possible that Kendre Miller could be active for this one (he was activated from IR last week but didn’t play). That would introduce an RB3 to the mix. I wouldn’t play Jamaal or Kendre together as I think they’ll compete for the RB2 role, but we could possibly see a viable RB2 out of this situation. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

The New Orleans pass catching situation is awfully tricky to figure out. Last week, Olave played just 3 snaps and the biggest beneficiary of his absence was somebody named Bub Means (I seriously had no idea who this guy even was at the time). Cedrick Wilson and Mason Tipton both played a little bit more, but Means went from playing a tiny handful of snaps to playing 71% of the snaps, second most of any wide receiver behind Shaheed. If it was only Olave being out I would say to be cautious here because how a team responds to injury during a game and how they respond with a week to prepare can be very different, but with Shaheed also out, that leaves just Wilson, Tipton, and Means healthy of the 5 WRs they’ve been carrying. They’ll call up a couple of practice squad guys, but I expect those three will play the most. Means certainly made the most of his opportunity, catching 5 of 8 targets for 45 yards and a score. At just $4,000, he looks like a very strong play on paper, despite what is clearly a difficult matchup (that said, the individual cornerback matchup won’t be awful as Broncos top cornerback Patrick Surtain is out for this game). Wilson’s a guy who’s had success in the past when given an opportunity so I actually like him quite a bit here and expect he’ll carry less ownership than Means given the difference between their results last week. Tipton is an undrafted rookie who I think it’s hard to have much confidence in at all. He’s a tourney punt option, but he’s my least favorite of the Saints three primary wideouts. Whoever they call up from the practice squad can be viewed as MME plays as well but keep in mind the Saints have Kamara and tight ends who can soak up targets, so the ancillary WRs may not play much at all. 

Speaking of tight end, Juwan Johnson is another logical beneficiary of New Orleans injury woes but he’s also $6,800 and saw just 3 targets last week on 40 pass attempts from Rattler. The other Saints tight end, Foster Moreau, is on the field less and is more of a blocker but he does have a couple of touchdowns on the season as well as a nice 41 yard catch last week. It’s really hard for me to parse this all out because this whole situation screams volatility to me. I think Means, Wilson, and Johnson are the safest options (as in I expect them to both be on the field and to get volume) while Moreau and Tipton are next (they’ll be on the field but may not see many/any targets). Good luck. 

Denver

<< 90% OFF!!! >>

Don’t play DFS without it!

Use code OWS90


Kickoff Sunday, Oct 20th 9:30am Eastern

Patriots (
18) at

Jaguars (
24.5)

Over/Under 42.5

Tweet
Notes

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Another week, another London game as the NFL is really pushing its product over there. This time we have the Patriots and the Jaguars in a 42 total game with Jacksonville favored by 6. Both of these teams are 1-5 and yet Jacksonville is a huge favorite. That kind of tells you everything you need to know about Vegas’ perception of this New England team. 

Jacksonville

On the Jags side, Travis Etienne is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury and there’s some complexity in the reporting here. Early in the week, Etienne was described as being “week to week,” which would imply he would miss Week 7, but then after getting in limited practices all week, he was described as “progressing” and the coaching staff “hadn’t made a decision yet.” So, who knows . . . if you want me to guess, I’d say he misses because there’s little incentive for a 1-5 Jags team to push him when Tank Bigsby has looked capable as a backup while Etienne’s workload was already being constrained this year (a high of 13 carries in any game, even close ones). If Etienne plays, he’s hard to trust for meaningful volume given what we’ve seen from him all season, but he would at least be in a solid spot as a large favorite and with material passing game work. If he misses, the backfield would be split between Bigsby and D’Ernest Johnson. Bigsby had been playing ahead of Johnson in Weeks 4-5, which were weeks that Etienne saw his snaps and touches scaled back. In those two weeks, Bigsby played a total of 40 offensive snaps and saw 21 opportunities, while Johnson played 25 snaps and saw just 6 opportunities. Both of those were close games, however. In Week 6, the Jags were stomped by the Bears and Etienne left after just 11 snaps, Johnson played 56% of the snaps and saw 8 opportunities while Bigsby had 7 carries on 27% of the snaps. So, what happens in this game? My best guess is that Bigsby starts and is the primary 2-down back. Bigsby only has 1 target all season, indicating they don’t really trust him in a passing down role yet – that role most likely belongs to Johnson. If I’m right, that means these roles are highly game script dependent, and you’d want to lean more on Bigsby in builds based around the Jags winning/playing from ahead while using more of Johnson in builds predicated on the Patriots winning or at least the Jags playing catch up. One final note: I think this will likely be the industry consensus and there is some volatility around the roles here. We could be wrong so flipping this on at least a handful of rosters may make sense in tournaments. 

The Jacksonville passing game has been absolutely atrocious so far this season. I did see a stat on Twitter this week that the Jags lead the league in dropped passes by an absolutely enormous margin, so maybe it isn’t fair to pin this all on Trevor Lawrence, but regardless of whose fault it’s been, they have been really, really bad. They do have some very talented pass catchers on their roster with a primary wide receiver trio of Christian Kirk, Brian Thomas Jr. (BTJ!), and Gabe Davis. BTJ is the main guy for me here. He’s quickly shown that he’s ready for the NFL level and he leads the team in targets, yards, and touchdowns. He’s the most expensive Jacksonville skill position player but deserves to be and I’m happy to play him in any format. Kirk is interesting as the perception of him is as a short-area yardage kind of guy running out of the slot, but his aDOT is actually 13.1 yards which is the highest of any of the four main Jags pass catchers (I know, this surprised me too). Feels gross but I actually really like Kirk. He’s 13th in the NFL in air yards, has the 15th most deep targets, 20th in the league in aDOT but just a 71.8% catchable target rate. Obviously, all of the Jags are a bit low on that last metric with Lawrence throwing to them, but Kirk is the lowest. He’s tied with BTJ in expected fantasy points per game, and we should see his season start to turn around as results regress toward expectations. I think he’s likely to be meaningfully lower owned than BTJ, and if that’s the case, I’ll cross my fingers and load up here. Gabe Davis has the WR3 role and he’s no longer just a deep threat. In fact, his aDOT is the lowest of the WR trio. I think he’s clearly third in the pecking order (and he’s third of the trio in targets). He could hit, of course, he had two touchdowns last week and is leading the WRs in red zone targets, and he’s also priced very fairly at $6,600 so I think he makes a solid mid-range play. I just prefer Kirk in rosters where I can find the extra $1k salary. Parker Washington and Tim Jones will play rotational WR roles and can be used as punt plays. 

At tight end, Evan Engram returned from a four week injury and immediately stepped into a huge role, catching 10 of 10 targets for 102 yards. Remember last year that the knock on Engram in this offense was the almost complete lack of a red zone role, so we need yardage to really pile up for him to hit (so far he doesn’t have a red zone target, but of course, our sample is awfully small with just two games played this season). You could bet on that role changing, but otherwise, Engram needs either a long touchdown or a lot of volume in order to hit, and while I really like him as a player, I’m concerned that this isn’t the ideal matchup for a lot of volume. He fits best in rosters built around the Pats winning or at least the game being highly competitive throughout. TE2 Brenton Strange showed himself as a capable pass catcher in Engram’s absence and even scored two touchdowns, making him slightly better than a pure MME punt, and then TE3 Luke Farrell can be used if you’re feeling really spicy.

New England

<< 90% OFF!!! >>

Don’t play DFS without it!

Use code OWS90


Kickoff Sunday, Oct 20th 1:00pm Eastern

Hawks (
24.25) at

Falcons (
27.25)

Over/Under 51.5

Tweet
Notes

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>
  • The Seahawks rank first in pass rate over expectation, also leading the league in overall pass volume (41.8 pass attempts per game).
  • The Falcons have been at or below pass rate expectation in four of six games this season, with their overall numbers inflated massively by the game environments they found themselves in Week 5 and Week 6 (their shootout win over the Buccaneers and a trouncing of the Panthers on the road).
  • The Falcons generally filter production through the air to the short-to-intermediate areas of the field as they force opposing teams to march the field, playing into a potential increase in volume for Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
  • There are fewer paths than public perception for this game to turn into an uptempo, high-scoring affair. That said, there are places for volume to accumulate, which is typically the path we take when targeting one-offs from a game with high octane offenses but fewer paths to offensive eruption, as is the case here. More on this exploration below.
  • Both teams have a relatively clean injury report through Thursday.

How Seattle Will Try To Win ::

The Seahawks lead the league in pass rate expectation and pass attempts per game (a ridiculous 41.8 pass attempts per game) but find themselves in one of the clearer run-funnel matchups in the league against a Falcons defense allowing just 0.32 fantasy points per dropback from zone, playing zone at an elevated 75.8% frequency (fifth highest in the league). That said, the matchup against a Falcons defense largely struggling to generate pressure, plays into the propensity of this team to live and die by the pass. The Seahawks are generating just 1.44 yards before contact per attempt on the ground while allowing the fourth lowest pressure rate in the league, clearly indicating that their offensive line is much more stout in pass protection than they are in run-blocking metrics. That likely plays into the recent pass-heavy tendencies we’ve seen from this team of late, with offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb a proven commodity when it comes to maximizing the talent he has on the field. To me, that makes it unlikely we see the Seahawks suddenly shift to a run-focused offense for the remainder of the season, making it likely we see them finish the 2024 season with the highest pass rate over expectation value in the league. That’s a relative liability against the Falcons, a defense that is built from the top down in an effort to force opponents to the underneath areas of the field. We see that reflected in their coverage tendencies, with a combined 27% Cover-4 and Cover-6 rate. We see high Cover-4 and Cover-6 combinations from other teams that force opponents to drive the field through sustained drives to the underneath areas like the Chiefs (30.9% combined Cover-4 and Cover-6 rate), the Texans (28.5%), Titans (36.6%), Jets (30.6%), and 49ers (30.4%).

Lead back Kenneth Walker is quietly pushing himself toward true workhorse status, doing so through an injury that kept him off the field for two games earlier in the season. He ranks 10th in opportunity share (70.8%), fourth in receptions (21, or 5.3 per game), fifth in routes run (again, while missing two games), fifth in target share (14.5%), and fifth in total touchdowns (five). He has amassed a robust 3.04 yards after contact per attempt and forced a ridiculous 20 missed tackles on 51 carries, good for the highest rate of forced missed tackles per touch in the league, of backs with more than 50 carries this season. But he’s largely had to create those yards on his own behind an offensive line blocking to the sixth fewest yards before contact. The pure rushing matchup against a Falcons defense ceding 2.03 yards before contact per attempt is middling, at best, but the Falcons have been so good against the pass that they present a run-funnel matchup to their opponents. Zach Charbonnet should continue to serve as the change of pace back for an offense utilizing virtually no 21-personnel this season.

The biggest shift in how the Seahawks run their offense this season as compared to years past is the amount of 11-personnel they utilize, which has morphed into an almost 86% frequency during the previous two games. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has also leap-frogged Tyler Lockett in the snap and target pecking order, playing 64 more offensive snaps than the veteran while seeing 49 targets (8.2 per game) to the 40 of Lockett (6.7 per game). As discussed above, the Falcons schematically force opponents to sustain drives and march the field against them, with heavy rates of nickel and dime utilization through a top-down approach on defense. This theoretically increases the expected target volume of JSN, who has the shallowest aDOT of the group and a route structure that plays into the opponent the most. JSN leads the league in slot snaps with a robust 80.0% slot snap rate while also leading the league in total routes run due to the passing volume exhibited by the Seattle offense, but he’s going to need elite-level volume to return a GPP-viable score in this spot. That said, this spot does set up well to allow him a path to his third double-digit target game of the season. Because the team utilizes very few 12-personnel snaps of late, tight end Noah Fant has been confined to a sub-elite snap rate over the previous four games, peaking at just 69% in each of the previous two games played, and remains a shaky weekly fantasy bet. Finally, and somehow through elevated pass rates, quarterback Geno Smith has exactly one passing touchdown in all six games played this season, indicating a propensity to ride the ground game once in the red zone to this point in the season.

How atlanta Will Try To Win ::

<< Add Access >>

OWS FREE

(No Credit card Required)

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 20th 1:00pm Eastern

Titans (
15.75) at

Bills (
25.25)

Over/Under 41.0

Tweet
Notes

Game Overview ::

By HILOW >>
  • Titans CB L’Jarius Sneed (quad) and RB Tyjae Spears (hamstring) did not practice Wednesday. Head coach Brian Callahan labeled Spears as “week-to-week,” making it likely he sits against the Bills.
  • Bills RB James Cook (toe) returned to a limited practice after missing last week’s win over the Jets, while WR Khalil Shakir (ankle) started the week with a full practice after playing only 38% of the team’s offensive snaps in Week 6.
  • Amari Cooper makes his debut with a Bills team that had been without a true top dog through the air to start the season.
  • The Titans rank last in the league in giveaways per game (2.0) while the Bills rank first (0.3).
  • The Bills rank ninth in takeaways per game (1.7) while the Titans rank 29th in takeaways per game (0.6).
  • The Bills D/ST is the top on-paper play from this game, which tells you a lot about how I’m currently viewing this game environment.
  • The Bills rank last in plays per game (56.6) while the Titans rank 27th (58.2), making it highly likely we see a fewer-than-average number of total offensive plays run from scrimmage in this game.
  • Both teams have been at or below expectation in pass rate in all but one game this season (five of six for the Bills and four of five for the Titans).

How TENNESSEE Will Try To Win ::

This game is all about minimizing turnovers for the Titans, as they could very quickly find themselves with 26-28 minutes of time of possession and 50-55 offensive plays run from scrimmage against the Bills. But that all starts with turnovers and managing possessions. The Titans prefer to be a game-managing team themselves, with a pass rate under expectation in four of five games played this season. They have also been fighting key injuries this season, with veteran wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins playing through a torn MCL, quarterback Will Levis knocked out of the team’s Week 4 game with a shoulder injury, multiple defenders missing significant snaps, and now the injury to Spears. Furthermore, Levis has come crashing down to earth in his efficiency with downfield passing and Callahan has done very little to place him in the best position to succeed, largely failing to alter the clearly defined roles of his pass catchers through the first six weeks of the season. Calvin Ridley has an almost entirely downfield role as the most dynamic playmaker on the offense while Levis has been one of the worst deep-ball passers in the league.

Spears appears unlikely to go here after being deemed “week-to-week” by Callahan, likely leaving the backfield to Tony Pollard and Julius Chestnut. Chestnut has played just four offensive snaps this season, making it likelier than not we see Pollard approach or surpass his heaviest snap rate of the season, which came in Week 6 at 74%. The team ran just 58 offensive snaps in that game, leading to 17 carries and three targets. That means Pollard has now failed to eclipse 22 running back opportunities in all five games this season, keeping him in the “his workload is fine for his price but he has very few paths to truly erupting in volume” bucket of running backs this season. If you remember how we viewed him last week, that should sound familiar. Pollard is “fine” on paper, but doesn’t carry the volume upside we’d typically be looking for to turn him into a can’t-miss fantasy bet. That’s an important understanding considering he is likely to once again check in as one of the chalkiest plays on the slate. The matchup is about as good as it gets for the Titans against a Bills team allowing the most yards before contact per attempt in the league, but the Tennessee offensive line has been the worst unit in the league in the run game, generating just 1.07 yards before contact per attempt this season (dead last). 

We touched on the clearly delineated roles amongst the pass catchers above, most notably leaving Ridley in almost a purely downfield role. Ridley ranks second in aDOT (18.7) and sixth in share of air yards (47.0%) but has caught just nine (lol) of 27 targets through five games. That is largely due to a 95th-ranked target accuracy rating of 4.8. Against a defense holding teams to just 6.1 yards per pass attempt (seventh), look for the offense to function primarily in the short areas of the field. Hopkins played his heaviest snap rate of the season after the team’s Week 5 bye week (71%), while Tyler Boyd is confined to a prototypical slot snap rate in the 60-70% range, dependent on game flow and personnel package rates. The tight-end room is a nasty three-headed monster amongst Chigoziem Okonkwo, Josh Whyle, and Nick Vannett. In all, the matchup clearly points towards the short-to-intermediate areas of the field, most likely benefiting Hopkins and Boyd, but volume is unlikely to amass enough to matter for fantasy purposes.

How BUFFALO Will Try To Win ::

<< Add Access >>

OWS FREE

(No Credit card Required)

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 20th 1:00pm Eastern

Bengals (
24) at

Browns (
18.5)

Over/Under 42.5

Tweet
Notes

Game Overview ::

By PAPY324 >>
  • The most notable injury-related DNP early in the week from either side is Jerome Ford, who missed Wednesday’s practice with a hamstring injury.
  • This is a matchup between two teams that had high preseason hopes and have three combined wins. 
  • Deshaun Watson has been a nightmare for the Browns, but he’s so cheap he must be considered for DFS.
  • Nick Chubb returns this week. Coachspeak has been ambiguous about his usage, but logically it would make sense that he won’t have a full workload. 
  • The Browns traded Amari Cooper, opening up a lot of targets. The Browns’ primary pass catchers are all incredibly cheap. 
  • Joe Burrow is game-flow-dependent. When the Bengals’ opponents can score, Burrow can post a tournament-winning day. 
  • Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are highly correlated with Burrow and their big games also show up when the Bengals’ opponents can keep pace. 
  • Zack Moss got benched for fumbling last week but had played over 60% of the snaps in every game before that this season. The Bengals’ backfield might settle into a true 50/50 timeshare.

How cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

The Bengals limp into Week 7 with a 2-4 record, two games behind the Steelers and Ravens in the AFC North. What happened to Cincinnati? A team that was expected to compete for the Super Bowl with Burrow returning to health this season is fighting to keep its playoff hopes alive early in the year. From a 10,000-foot view, the Bengals are probably better than their record. They’re two games under .500 with a +5 point differential. Look a little closer, and after a bad Week 1 loss to the Patriots with a fresh-off-a-summer-long-holdout Chase, the Bengals have lost one-score games to the Chiefs, Ravens (in OT), and the better-than-expected Commanders. It wouldn’t take much for the Bengals to be 4-2 or better, but in our timeline, they’re in jeopardy of falling out of playoff contention in the first half of the season. What happened in those three close losses against good competition? The Bengals’ defense let them down. The Bengals scored 26 // 33 // 38 points in those three games. Zac Taylor is an offensive-minded coach, but there is no amount of offense that will make you a winning team if you go 0-3 in games where you average 32 points. 

The Bengals are one of the few teams still favoring the pass – they’re second in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) – with a PROE value that even a couple years ago would’ve been good for a top-five mark in the league. It makes sense that the Bengals want to throw, since they’re good at passing (No. 6 in DVOA) and middling (No. 15 in DVOA) at running. They’re also playing at a deliberate (20th in seconds per play) pace. This isn’t a departure from how they’ve played in previous seasons under Taylor with a healthy Burrow. This week they draw a Browns team who has been below average (20th in DVOA) against the pass, and equally as susceptible (20th in DVOA) on the ground. The Browns have had a good pass rush (No. 9 in sack percentage), and the Bengals’ O-line hasn’t been great (23rd-ranked by PFF), but if rookie RT Amarius Mims can continue to improve, the Bengals’ O-line should be able to do enough to keep Burrow upright. There isn’t anything in the matchup that should tilt the Bengals away from their usual method of attack. Expect a game plan that is predicated on throwing, with the idea of putting up enough points to protect their suspect defense. 

How cleveland Will Try To Win ::

<< Add Access >>

OWS FREE

(No Credit card Required)

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 20th 1:00pm Eastern

Texans (
22.25) at

Packers (
25.25)

Over/Under 47.5

Tweet
Notes

Game Overview ::

By HILOW >>
  • I’m again writing this before the initial injury reports are released for each of these teams, but Texans S Jimmie Ward aggravated a groin injury in Week 6 and is set to miss this game while CB Kamari Lassiter is expected to miss a few more games.
  • Packers WR Dontayvion Wicks injured his shoulder in Week 6 and did not finish the game, but initial imaging revealed only a sprain and he is currently listed as day-to-day. I tentatively expect him to play against the Texans.
  • The turnover battle and the battle in the trenches between two middling offensive lines and two top defensive lines are likely to be the deciding factors in this one.
  • Six wide receivers and two tight ends played meaningful snaps for the Packers in Week 6, which was the first game in three weeks in which they had everyone healthy.
  • This game carries an extremely wide range of outcomes as far as the likeliest game flow goes, with everything from a defensive stalemate to a back-and-forth eruption on the table, making one-off plays a difficult sell and keeping game environment bets on the table in MME play.

How houston Will Try To Win ::

The Texans shifted their offense back to extreme rates of 12-personnel in Week 6 in the absence of Nico Collins, marking the second game this season with more than 50% 12-personnel utilization. With Brevin Jordan still out, that left Teagan Quitoriano to join starter Dalton Schultz and primary blocker Cade Stover as players to play meaningful snaps at the position. Robert Woods’ absence left WR3 duties to Xavier Hutchinson, but the elevated 12-personnel rate left him with only 50% of the offensive snaps. John Metchie filled a “package role” with a 38% snap rate while the backfield saw Joe Mixon eased back in after three missed games, with the veteran back playing only 42% of the offensive snaps. As far as offensive structure goes, the biggest change in the absence of Nico was the shift to 12-personnel, but the offense’s structure remained relatively consistent with layered routes to the intermediate and deep areas of the field through Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs and tight-end usage mostly as the outlet to the short areas of the field. That said, on 26 first-down plays against the Patriots, the Texans called 14 pass plays to 12 run plays, a stark departure from their offensive tendencies during the first five games of the 2024 season (and, frankly, something we’ve been dying to see from Bobby Slowik in a move away from the typical predictability of their play-calling tendencies). 

The Texans were never pressured into increased offensive aggression against the Patriots, a team with a rookie quarterback making his first NFL start, making the change in play-calling tendencies notable. That said, it could have also been influenced by the state of the backfield with both Mixon and Dameon Pierce playing their first game in a month. Time will tell if that trend carries forward now that Mixon and Pierce have their legs back under them.

Mixon returned from a lengthy absence to a 42% snap rate, something that was likely influenced by both his absence and the fact that the Patriots never threatened the Texans in Week 6. Still, he took 13 carries for 102 yards and a score and added a touchdown through the air on two receptions, leaving Mixon averaging 30.0 DK points per game in games he did not leave with injury this season. Yea, it’s a sample size of two, but that is impressive nonetheless and highlights why he was a heavy target of mine this offseason in best ball. I would expect the modest 42% snap rate to increase substantially in his second game back from injury, likely into the 65-70% range that he saw in Week 1 and was on his way to in Week 2 before departing with injury. The Texans are a middling offensive line this season, creating 1.86 adjusted yards before contact per attempt (17th) while the Packers have actually held their own against the run this year, ceding just 1.57 adjusted yards before contact per attempt (seventh) behind 4.3 yards allowed per attempt (11th). In other words, this is not the same plus-matchup we have come to know from the Packers of the previous three seasons under Joe Barry.

The shift to heavier rates of 12-personnel with Collins on injured reserve affected the rate at which the top pass catchers were on the field for the Texans, with Diggs holding a 79% snap rate, Dell holding a 74% snap rate, and Schultz holding an 86% snap rate. That held Diggs below double-digit targets for the fifth time in six games, something that had made his path to an elite GPP score a difficult one considering a modest 8.1-yard aDOT this season. That said, it was actually Diggs that served as the downfield threat instead of Dell, with the former seeing his aDOT jump to 14.6 yards in Week 6, something that came with a robust 43.6% air-yards share. Most notably, the Houston pass offense was highly concentrated, with only Diggs, Dell, the tight ends, and the running backs catching a pass. I expect Diggs and Dell to be the primary emphasis through the air in the coming weeks after combining for 16 targets on 31 Stroud pass attempts against the Patriots. Furthermore, the two combined for a ridiculous 76.2% first-read target rate and three end zone targets a week ago. If the Texans are succeeding through the air, it is highly likely that it’s primarily flowing through these two bodies.

How green bay Will Try To Win ::

<< Add Access >>

OWS FREE

(No Credit card Required)

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 20th 1:00pm Eastern

Dolphins (
20.5) at

Colts (
23.5)

Over/Under 44.0

Tweet
Notes

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • The Colts listed nine players as ‘DNP’ on their Wednesday practice report, including RBs Jonathan Taylor (ankle) and Trey Sermon (knee) and WRs Michael Pittman (back) and Josh Downs (toe).
  • Colts QB Anthony Richardson was listed as a full participant after missing the previous two games with an oblique injury.
  • Dolphins RB De’Von Achane was listed as a full participant after sustaining a concussion in Week 5. That likely means he is in the final stages of the league’s five-step concussion protocol, with the bye week affording him enough time to remain symptom-free.
  • Dolphins QB Skylar Thompson (ribs) returned to a full practice to begin the week after missing the previous two games. It remains unclear whether it will be Thompson or recent acquisition Tyler Huntley under center against the Colts.
  • The Dolphins rank sixth in pressure rate on defense (36.6%) while the Colts rank fifth in pressure rate allowed on offense (26.8%) and Anthony Richardson has been horrid when pressured this season, making this a key matchup for the eventual flow of this game.
  • The Dolphins carry an insanely wide range of outcomes as far as expected offensive production goes. On the one hand, they are one of only two teams yet to score 21 points this season. On the other hand, Gus Bradley’s Colts defense is the perfect opponent to have two weeks to game plan for as his unit is extremely static.

How miami Will Try To Win ::

First off, the Dolphins are one of two teams yet to score 21 points or more this season, joined by only the Browns (lolz). Secondly, there is not a better opponent to have two weeks to game plan against than the static nature of Gus Bradley’s Cover-3-heavy defense. That leaves the Dolphins with a wider range of outcomes as far as their expected offensive production than I think the field will realize here. Head coach Mike McDaniel’s offense has not been able to overcome the loss of Tua Tagovailoa to this point in the season, but the bye week could be just what he needed to figure out how to best move forward. Incredibly, the Dolphins currently find themselves in second place in the underwhelming AFC East and have two opponents in the Colts and Cardinals that can be outmaneuvered before playing the Bills again in Week 9. In other words, there is a world in which the Week 9 meeting between the Bills and Dolphins is for first place in the division. Considering the Bills still have games against the Chiefs, 49ers, and Lions on the schedule, it is not out of reason to say that Miami’s season is not yet over. In order for that situation to play out, the Dolphins first must find a win against the Colts in Week 7. And in order to accomplish that task, they absolutely must figure out their offense. This leads us back to the fact that they are coming out of their bye week, providing an additional two weeks for McDaniel to figure out how to best utilize quarterback Tyler Huntley after the latter joined the team leading up to Week 3. As mentioned previously (and will continue to be mentioned), Gus Bradley’s Colts defense is one of the more face-up defenses in the league, which provides the best case scenario for a head coach looking to find his stride on offense. But again, the Dolphins are one of only two teams yet to score 21 points in a game this season. There is a lot going on here on this side of the matchup.

De’Von Achane returned to a full practice Wednesday, meaning he is likely in the final stages of the league’s concussion protocol and should suit up against the Colts. We have yet to see a full game with both Achane and Mostert healthy this season, with Mostert getting injured in Week 1 and Achane leaving Week 5 with a concussion. I expect close to an even split in snaps and opportunities between the two should both remain fully healthy throughout the game, which is likely to lead to 14-16 opportunities for Mostert and 12-14 for Achane, with Achane having the clearer path to pass game usage. The biggest problem for their respective fantasy profiles is an offensive line blocking to the seventh fewest yards before contact per attempt (1.56), a unit that ranks third in pass-blocking win rate. The pure matchup yields a net-adjusted yards before contact value of just 1.775, which stands as one of the worst grades on the slate.

If the Dolphins are to win this game, it has to start with the structure of their passing offense. Tyreek Hill’s 0.40 FP/RR with quarterbacks not named Tua Tagovailoa this season would stand as the lowest mark of his career. His 28.8% first-read target rate would be his lowest mark since his rookie season. Against a defense that presents a static pre-snap picture to opposing quarterbacks, I have to hope McDaniel has spent the previous two weeks coaching up Tyler Huntley to exploit those tendencies with Tyreek Hill. If not, this team’s season is over, because this game is as close to a must-win game for a team that has played only five games as you’ll find. Jaylen Waddle is arguably the top WR2 in the league (maybe it’s Davante Adams now in New York or maybe it’s DeVonta Smith in Philadelphia, but those are up for debate), but this offense absolutely must get Hill and Huntley on the same page to be successful. The Colts are allowing the seventh-most pass yards per game (234.3) and eighth-most yards per pass attempt (7.3) this season, making this a solid spot for McDaniel to get Hill going early. I expect them to come out feeding their alpha wide receiver early here. No other pass-catcher outside of the top two options in this offense is playing more than 50% of the offensive snaps in a standard week, making all other names a tough sell away from Huntley-led team stacks.

How Indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

<< Add Access >>

OWS FREE

(No Credit card Required)

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 20th 1:00pm Eastern

Lions (
24.5) at

Vikings (
26)

Over/Under 50.5

Tweet
Notes

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • Vikings RB Aaron Jones (hamstring) managed a limited sessions Thursday after missing practice Wednesday.
  • Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson has been limited in practice each day since having his 21-day practice window opened. I would think the team wants him to get in a full practice prior to bringing him back to the active roster, which has yet to happen to this point. As such, I expect another missed game for Hockenson unless he increases his participation level to a full practice Friday.
  • Lions CB Carlton Davis (quad) missed practice both days so far this week (as of Thursday) while the team prepares for life after Aidan Hutchinson, who broke both bones in the bottom half of his leg in the team’s Week 6 win.
  • On that note, Hutchinson has been responsible for 7.5 of the 15 total sacks by the Lions the season, a team that is ranked 30th in pressure rate (26.1%).
  • The Lions (+7.2%) and Vikings (+6.0%) are first and fourth in pass rate over expectation (PROE) forced on defense, respectively. As in, these are two of the top four most pass-funnel defenses in the league.
  • The 5-0 Vikings host the 4-1 Lions for sole possession of first place in the most competitive division in football. Get your popcorn ready for this one, y’all!

How detroit Will Try To Win ::

The Lions are one of the few teams in the league that can beat you in multiple different ways, with an offensive line that ranks top five in both run-blocking and pass protection, a skill position corps that rivals any team in the league, and a defense that forces you to beat them through the air, presenting the most pass-funnel matchup in the league. That said, this is not an easy spot against a Vikings defense allowing the fewest yards before contact per attempt (0.81), generating pressure at the fourth highest rate (38.8%), ranking second in takeaways per game (2.6), third in points allowed per game (15.2), and remains unpredictable enough to confuse even the best, or most veteran, quarterbacks. This defense held the 49ers to 17 points, the Texans to seven points, held the Packers scoreless until 15 seconds remaining in the first half (and then saw soft zone exploited in the second half), and the Jets to 17 points this season. So, while the Lions lead the league with 30.2 points per game, this is one of the most difficult tests they will face all season. That should keep offensive coordinator Aaron Glenn aggressive throughout, but the fact that so much of his offense is built behind the run game, and that this is one of the more difficult pure rushing matchups in the league, means the Lions carry a wider range of outcomes than their lofty points per game total suggests. Furthermore, the Detroit defense has generated pressure at the third-lowest frequency and just lost the EDGE player responsible for 7.5 of their 15 total sacks this season in Aidan Hutchinson, making this a rare occasion where the Lions might not be able to control the game environment as has been the norm lately.

Second-year running back Jahmyr Gibbs is the 1A in a tight timeshare with veteran David Montgomery, with the latter typically seeing increased snap rates and opportunity shares in game environments that clearly tilt to a run-heavy approach. This is not one of those instances. Considering the Vikings have forced the fourth-highest PROE this season, it stands to reason that this is a spot where Gibbs takes on a larger snap rate and workload. That has typically settled in the 60-65% snap rate and opportunity share range this year, likely leaving Montgomery in the 35-40% range for each category.

Quarterback Jared Goff has not thrown the football more than 25 times in a game in over a month, last doing so in Week 2 against the Buccaneers (55 pass attempts). The Buccaneers present another pass-funnel matchup and were able to sneak out of that game with a win, resembling the setup for Week 7 more than any other game for the Lions this season. I don’t expect Goff to attempt 55 passes again, but this is definitely a spot where the team is likelier to attempt more passes than their 30.6 pass attempts per game seasonal average. Against another aggressive defensive coordinator in Week 2, Goff fed Amon-Ra St. Brown 18 targets on his 55 pass attempts, with Jameson Williams checking in second with 11 looks. No other pass-catcher saw more than seven targets (Jahmyr Gibbs). That should be a familiar sight to what we expect to see against the Vikings, with St. Brown the primary outlet when Goff is pressured and Williams the shot-taking option downfield in the soft spots left behind via the blitz. Furthering that setup is a Vikings defense in two-high alignments at a robust 74.4% frequency, with St. Brown (0.85 FP/RR, 42.9% first-read target rate, and 2.56 YPRR) and Williams (0.46 FP/RR, 33.3% first-read target rate, and 2.57 YPRR) leading the team against two-high alignments this season. Every other pass-catcher on this team has seen a 7.3% target share or less against two-high alignments this season. 

How Minnesota Will Try To Win ::

<< Add Access >>

OWS FREE

(No Credit card Required)

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 20th 1:00pm Eastern

Eagles (
22.5) at

Giants (
19.5)

Over/Under 42.0

Tweet
Notes

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>
  • Philadelphia has won some games but it hasn’t always been pretty, including last week’s ugly 20-16 win over the Browns.
  • The Eagles have only played one game from start to finish with all of their core skill position players (Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert). 
  • Philadelphia will be missing their starting left tackle and starting tight end this week against an ascending Giants defense.
  • Giants rookie sensation WR Malik Nabers appears on track to return from a two game absence from a concussion.
  • Both of these offenses have struggled in the red zone this season, which somewhat limits the scoring expectations we should have for this game.

How philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

This week will be the return of star running back Saquon Barkley to face the organization that drafted him with the second overall pick several years ago. Barkley has had an outstanding start to the season and he’s a key part of an Eagles offense that is struggling to meet expectations. A big issue for Philadelphia has been health as they have had offensive line issues and have had multiple missed games from their star wide receivers AJ Brown and Devonta Smith. In Week 6 against Cleveland, the Eagles finally got them both back on the field but lost tight end Dallas Goedert mid-game to what is expected to be a multi-week hamstring injury. Head coach Nick Sirianni is coming under fire from the notoriously difficult Philadelphia media and fans as the team has had some underwhelming performances to start 2024 following a disastrous end to 2023. Despite all of the chatter, the Eagles are 3-2 and have all six of their division games ahead of them, starting with this week, leaving them firmly in control of their destiny.

This week the underachieving Eagles offense will have to deal with a pesky and overachieving Giants defense. After an embarrassing opening week loss to the Vikings, New York has held their last five opponents to 21 or fewer points, and they are the only team that did not allow the Commanders and Jayden Daniels to score a touchdown. Their competition has not been slouches either, with their last three opponents being the Cowboys, Seahawks, and Bengals. So, how will the Eagles attack them? Well, everything should start with Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts. The Commanders game should give a bit of excitement to Philadelphia as the Giants struggled mightily with their dual threat rushing attack. Washington is the only team to face New York to post more than 350 total yards from scrimmage, as they accumulated a whopping 425 yards with 215 of those coming on the ground. Jalen Hurts leads all NFL QBs in rushing attempts per game and the Giants defense is clearly susceptible to rushing QBs, as evidenced by the career-long 47-yard rushing TD they surrendered to Joe Burrow last week, the 72 yards on 4 rushes they surrendered to Geno Smith, and the struggles they had with the Commanders due to the ability and threat of Daniels running. Hurts will be asked to make plays with his legs both on designed runs and on scrambles, although he may not be pressured as much by the Giants this week if their defensive front can’t get healthy. They are already without Kayvon Thibodeaux, who was placed on IR, and now star edge rusher Brian Burns and earth-moving defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence have both missed the first two practices of the week with groin and hip injuries, respectively. 

The offense will flow primarily through Hurts and Barkley, with a condensed target tree in the passing game going to Barkley, Brown, and Smith. We can expect those four players to account for the overwhelming majority of the Eagles offense and this may end up being a more productive spot for them than meets the eye due to the mounting New York defensive injuries and the way the Eagles rushing attack matches up with them. The Giants play a mix of man and zone coverages and A.J. Brown has been basically an impossible cover in man over the last couple of years. He should have some opportunities to make big plays downfield in this matchup and especially as the game wears on and New York is forced to try to contain the Eagles rushing attack. The biggest struggle for the Eagles offense has been converting drives into touchdowns, as they rank 25th in the league in red zone touchdown rate. This could be the spot where those numbers regress, however, as their dual-threat running game and Brown’s ability to win contested catches will be difficult for the Giants to contain.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

<< Add Access >>

OWS FREE

(No Credit card Required)

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 20th 4:05pm Eastern

Raiders (
18.25) at

Rams (
25.25)

Over/Under 43.5

Tweet
Notes

Game Overview ::

By MIKE JOHNSON >>
  • The Davante Adams saga/era is over for the Raiders, as they moved him to the Jets for a 2025 draft pick this week.
  • Brock Bowers seems likely to lead NFL tight ends in targets this season as a focal point of the passing game.
  • The Rams are hoping to get star wide receiver Cooper Kupp back after a 3.5-game absence.
  • Despite a 1-4 record, Los Angeles is still within striking distance in its division and has a favorable schedule over the next few weeks. 
  • We should not expect either of these offenses to play at an especially high tempo, though they are both in position to have more success than we have seen from them recently.

How las vegas Will Try To Win ::

The Raiders inserted second-year QB Aidan O’Connell in the lineup last week and got steamrolled by the Steelers at home. The Raiders turned the ball over three times despite a very conservative offensive game plan that featured their running backs and short-area passing for as long as they could stick with it. Las Vegas is sorely missing playmakers, as Adams has been shipped out of town and Jakobi Meyers continues to miss time with an ankle injury. Meyers missed the Steelers game and has not practiced yet this week, either, leaving Bowers and speedy Tre Tucker as the best bets in the passing game. O’Connell has not been great last season or this season, while the Raiders rank dead last (32nd) in both rushing offense DVOA and Adjusted Line Yards. This is a bad combination when you are both inefficient and non-explosive in the passing game while also unable to create holes in the running game or have backs who can make something out of nothing. 

The potential glimmer of hope for the Raiders this week is an above-average matchup with a Rams defense that has struggled this year, ranking 30th in both pass defense and run defense DVOA. The Rams rank among the league leaders in zone-coverage rate and Bowers leads all tight ends in receiving grade against zone. Bowers has a massive 30% target share over the last two games without Adams, and the Rams are not a team that is especially capable or focused on taking away one specific player. We should expect Bowers to be heavily targeted once again this week with a strong chance of success, and the Raiders’ offense is going to need him to produce if they want to move the ball. We know the Raiders are going to try to slow things down and protect their quarterback, and they may be able to at least sustain some drives after playing some really bad football the last two weeks. Even if those drives don’t all turn into points, avoiding three-and-outs while staying competitive in the field-position battle should help their defense out and allow them to stay competitive against a Rams team that is not built to be a “quick-strike” unit.

How Los ANGELES Will Try To Win ::

<< Add Access >>

OWS FREE

(No Credit card Required)

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 20th 4:05pm Eastern

Panthers (
20.25) at

WFT (
30.75)

Over/Under 51.0

Tweet
Notes

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>
  • The Panthers offense continues to be built primarily around running back Chuba Hubbard and wide receiver Diontae Johnson, who have combined for approximately 60% of the team’s offensive usage in games QB Andy Dalton has started.
  • The Carolina defense ranks near the bottom of the league against both the run and the pass and has surrendered an average of 4 offensive touchdowns per game.
  • Washington has the league’s 2nd ranked offense by DVOA and averages 3.2 offensive touchdowns per game despite having a game where they settled for seven field goals.
  • Carolina’s defense has proven incapable of getting pressure on the quarterback and this sets up as a game where Jayden Daniels should have all day to throw.
  • Washington’s offense may spread things around this week but there should be a lot to go around.

How Carolina Will Try To Win ::

The Panthers had a nice spark when they switched from Bryce Young to Andy Dalton for their Week 3 win over the Raiders, but have slowly come back down to earth since then. The biggest issue they have had over the last three weeks has been continuing offensive success into the second half of games. During those three games against the Bengals, Bears, and Falcons they have scored 38 first half points as opposed to only 16 second half points. This should not be especially surprising as they are able to script plays and design some things to take advantage of their opponent early in the game but then as teams adjust to them, they do not have enough playmakers or diversity in what they can do to find other ways to score.

Chuba Hubbard and Diontae Johnson are clearly the engines of this offense and have combined for 55 to 65% of the team’s offensive usage in three of their four games since Andy Dalton took over under center. The one exception was their game in Chicago where the Bears elite secondary did a great job of taking Johnson out of the game from the outset. The Commanders defense ranks 29th in the NFL in pass defense DVOA, 30th in PFF coverage grade, and have played man coverage at a high rate while giving up some big plays out of it this season, so Johnson should be able to make some noise in this matchup, and a situation like the Bears game is highly unlikely. Johnson is an elite route runner and should have a lot of opportunities in this one. Hubbard is averaging over 22 opportunities per game and has been very good with those opportunities. Washington’s run defense has been nothing special and Hubbard has been very involved in the passing game, so we should expect high volume from him once again this week as well. Finally, the offense will likely need to be aggressive this week as they are facing an elite offensive opponent who they are unlikely to slow down. Rookie offensive weapons WR Xavier Legette and TE Ja’Tavion Sanders should be more involved as the season wears on and this would be a week where one or both of them being more involved would make a lot of sense.

How Washington Will Try To Win ::

<< Add Access >>

OWS FREE

(No Credit card Required)

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 20th 4:25pm Eastern

Chiefs (
22.25) at

49ers (
24.75)

Over/Under 47.0

Tweet
Notes

Game Overview ::

By MIKE JOHNSON >>
  • In a rematch of last season’s Super Bowl, Kansas City will travel to the West Coast for a showdown between current division leaders.
  • San Francisco is playing with extra rest after the Week 6 Thursday night win over Seattle, and the status of the 49ers’ running back situation for this week is up in the air.
  • The Chiefs are coming off their Week 6 bye and are the last remaining undefeated team in the AFC.
  • Both of these offenses rank in the bottom 10 in the league in raw pace of play and both defenses are in the top 10 in DVOA.
  • Both offenses have had significant struggles turning drives into touchdowns and rank 26th and 29th, respectively, in red-zone touchdown conversion rate.

How KANSAS CITY Will Try To Win ::

As we have discussed throughout this season, the Chiefs are not the team we know from past years that was a high-flying one and relied heavily on their offense to carry them. Rather, they are a team who thrives on their defense controlling the game and keeping opponents in check while their offense picks their spots, takes care of the ball, and finds ways to make winning plays in the fourth quarter if their opponent keeps things close. The approach and mindset of Patrick Mahomes has evolved significantly, as he controls games and seemingly never makes back-breaking mistakes that we see almost every other QB stumble into at some point. Mahomes almost certainly still has it in him to let it rip at a moment’s notice, but the Chiefs have yet to face a team that has put them in position where he needed to.

Kansas City currently ranks seventh in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE), 18th in raw pass rate, and 24th in seconds per snap, AKA raw pace of play, which are all down significantly from past years. Their no-huddle rate is also much lower than we have seen in some past seasons, as they tend to milk the play clock and control things rather than trying to run opponents off the field. This offense looks significantly different right now than was expected heading into the season, as they do not have wide receivers Rashee Rice or Hollywood Brown and are without star running back Isiah Pacheco for at least a few more weeks. The lower metrics in terms of pace and pass rate almost certainly have a lot to do with their personnel issues and adjusting to the reality of their current situation.

This week against the 49ers, the Chiefs are likely to be pushed to score points more than they have been in the past few weeks. After holding the Falcons, Chargers, and Saints to 40 combined points in Weeks 3 through 5, they will face a 49ers offense that has scored 23 or more points in five of six games and ranks seventh in the league in offensive DVOA. Veteran RB Kareem Hunt and WR JuJu Smith-Schuster have emerged as staples of the offense, as they have the trust of the coaching staff and are not the stars they once were but still have enough juice in the tank to make the most of their opportunities. In their Week 5 win over New Orleans, Hunt posted 117 yards from scrimmage on 28 touches and JuJu turned eight targets into seven receptions and 130 receiving yards. Kansas City’s offensive line ranks fourth in Adjusted Line Yards at 5.05 yards per attempt, while San Francisco’s run defense has been just mediocre and its pass defense has been their strength. We should expect the usual balanced and methodical approach from Kansas City and for Hunt, JuJu, and Travis Kelce to soak up the majority of the offensive usage. There is a chance we see rookie WR Xavier Worthy’s role increase and the Chiefs could find more creative ways to get him involved coming out of their bye week. They will almost certainly have to test the defense over the top and stress them with Worthy’s speed via jet sweeps and quick hitters if they want to create room to operate for everyone else. The 49ers’ defense is too good and athletic to think Kansas City can do what it’s done to other teams without creating more of a downfield threat.

How SAN FRANCISCO Will Try To Win ::

<< Add Access >>

OWS FREE

(No Credit card Required)

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 20th 8:20pm Eastern

Jets (
21.25) at

Steelers (
18.75)

Over/Under 40.0

Tweet
Notes

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Sunday Night Football is a game that old-school fans will likely love as the Jets visit the Steelers. This game has a total of just 38.5 (bet down from 43 at open!) with the Jets favored by 1.5. The big news is Russell Wilson seems likely to start for the Steelers. Justin Fields has done a reasonably capable job, but Pittsburgh wants to see if Wilson has anything left after acquiring him only for him to miss the first six games of the year. Meanwhile, on the Jets side, they’re coming off of a painful loss to Buffalo in which their offense finally woke up (sort of – they had three skill position players with 100+ yards and 393 total yards of offense but couldn’t convert it into touchdowns), and of course, now they have Davante Adams joining the team after his hamstring “injury” miraculously healed upon news of the trade to New York. 

Pittsburgh

We’ll start with the Steelers and their run game. Najee Harris finally had a strong game last week, running for 106 yards and a score against the Raiders, but he’s likely to find much tougher sledding here against a very strong Jets defense. Najee is an inefficient runner with a strong role. Even after his big Week 6, he’s only averaging 3.9 yards per carry on the season, and just over 3 targets per game. Jaylen Warren is back to eat into the passing game work that he enjoyed while Warren was out, but on the plus side, he has at least 13 carries in every game. Najee always feels like more of a floor play than a ceiling play to me. You’re basically relying on either some outlier performance or for him to fall into the end zone despite being on one of the NFL’s lowest-scoring offenses. The one additional mark in his favor is that a QB swap from Fields to Wilson gives him a bit of extra touchdown equity. His snaps have peaked at 59% with Warren active vs. 72% with Warren out, so we can see the impact of the role that Warren’s return has on him. He’s fine, I guess? He’s not the kind of guy we’re ever really excited to play, but at the same time, it’s tough to ever just X out a running back with a strong goal line role in Showdown. Warren resumed his normal role upon his Week 6 return, playing 37% of the snaps and handling 9 opportunities (6 carries, 3 targets). Despite Najee’s goal line role, I’m more interested in playing Warren here as I think he has more per-touch upside and a stronger ceiling on a point-per-dollar basis. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, the Steelers are basically George Pickens, Pat Freiermuth, and then everyone else. Pickens is always in play for a lot of big play upside and $8,400 is the cheapest he’s been all season. What remains to be seen is how effective Wilson can be (Fields, at least from a fantasy standpoint, did pretty well for the Steelers this year), as well as if Pickens can beat this matchup against Jets top cornerback Sauce Gardner. In the most directly comparable matchup he’s had this season, Pickens caught just 2 of 4 targets against Denver and Patrick Surtain. I view him as an upside play but with a terrifyingly low floor. Van Jefferson is the other full-time receiver but he has just 13 targets on the season and is really just a punt play. Calvin Austin is the other WR who brings at least some semblance of upside – he’s fast and while his floor is equally low to Jefferson, we saw him flash a ceiling with a 55 yard touchdown against the Chargers in Week 3. Scotty Miller will play a few snaps and then rookie Roman Wilson played his first snaps of the season last week after missing several games with an ankle injury. Wilson may be a factor at some point and the Steelers certainly need some help at wideout, but for this week, I’d guess they bring him along slowly and leave him in punt play territory. 

At tight end, Pittsburgh has been running 12 personnel sets at one of the league’s highest rates, with Pat Freiermuth the lead pass catching tight end and then Darnell Washington and Connor Heyward serving primarily as blockers. Freiermuth is second of the pass catchers in targets on the season with 26 (Pickens has 44) and has an easier matchup than Pickens. Overall, he’s my favorite Pittsburgh pass catcher as I can see him getting some easier work over the middle while Pickens gets locked down by Gardner. Washington and Heyward are “hope for 1 catch and a touchdown” plays. This is not exactly an inspiring receiving corps. 

New York

<< 90% OFF!!! >>

Don’t play DFS without it!

Use code OWS90


Kickoff Monday, Oct 21st 8:15pm Eastern

Ravens (
27.5) at

Bucs (
23.5)

Over/Under 51.0

Tweet
Notes

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Monday night brings us two games, the first of which has the Ravens visiting the Bucs for a nice 50 point total game with Baltimore favored by 3.5. This should be a fun one. Both teams are sitting at 4-2 and very much have the look of serious postseason contenders. What makes this potentially more fun from a DFS perspective is that the Ravens defense, which was long a strength of the team, has sprung leaks this year, as they’ve allowed 24.8 points per game so far this year (the Bucs are also slightly below average here). Both teams are top-4 in the league in points scored so have two elite offenses, and two defenses that appear to have taken a step back. We should be in for some fireworks. 

Tampa Bay

On the Bucs side, it looks like Rachaad White should return from a one game absence, throwing their backfield into confusion. Bucky Irving was already eating into White’s role on the ground prior to the injury, then performed well in White’s absence with 81 yards and a score on 14 carries (plus 2 for 24 through the air), but RB3 Sean Tucker also went bananas with a 136/1 line on 14 carries of his own and 3/56 through the air. Of course, this came in an elite matchup against the Saints, and the Bucs also controlled the game throughout. This is a much tougher matchup, as while Baltimore’s defense has been (much) worse this season, it’s all been through the air. They’re allowing just 3 yards per carry to opposing backs, the lowest in the league by a wide margin. So, we have a backfield with highly uncertain workloads in what has been the worst possible matchup for running backs this season. I think you’d be justified in deciding just to stay from this situation entirely, but if you do decide to go after it, I’d personally lean towards Irving over White (you’d be looking for goal line work here to snag a TD, and I think Irving probably has that role now), or even Tucker, if you just want to take some random shots. I’m going to go underweight the whole spot and hope it doesn’t burn me, which I feel pretty good about given the matchup. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

The passing game is where the Bucs can make some noise as Baltimore is allowing a whopping 276 passing yards per game (only Jacksonville is worse, and only by 1 yard). The duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin is one of the top WR pairings in the league and they’ve been delivering so far this year, with at least one of them going over 20 Draftkings points in all but one game this season. Godwin got moved back to the slot this year and it’s resulted in great things for him, but Evans was right on his tail production-wise until last week when he was predictably shut down once again by Saints cornerback Marshawn Lattimore while Godwin went berserk. Take that game away and things look much closer between them: 36 targets and a 276/5 receiving line for Evans against 40 targets and a 386/5 line for Godwin. Obviously, edge to Godwin there, but not a massive one. Both are in play here and I view them as pretty close to equal. I really like Godwin in the slot role and think he’s a little bit safer, but also think he’s going to project a little better and that could skew ownership his way. The way I think of this is that anything more than a 5% gap in projected ownership is too much, and I’ll build my allocations according to those projections.  Rookie Jalen McMillan was handling the WR3 role early in the year before getting hurt but he returned last week but only played 18% of the snaps. WR4 was Trey Palmer but he also got hurt, suffering a concussion in Week 4 and missing the last two games. He returned to full practice this week but is still listed as questionable, which indicates he’s still in the protocol. I’d guess he gets cleared, which throws this situation into even more confusion because veteran Sterling Shepard took over for McMillan and then played over him in Week 6 when McMillan returned. What the heck do we do with this? Here’s my take: McMillan was being eased back in a bit, but Shepard also outperformed him in his absence, catching 7 of 11 targets for 78 yards and a score and even rushing the ball 4 times last week. McMillan, meanwhile, has only caught 3 of 7 targets for 59 yards and a touchdown. Assuming Palmer is active I think all three see the field, but I think Shepard is likeliest to lead the trio in snaps. I think he’s shown that he’s more useful to the team right now than McMillan, who I think will continue to ramp his snaps up slowly and give him a chance to acclimate to the NFL. Fair warning that I could be wrong here, this is just an educated guess on my part. If you have a strong take in a different direction, you should play it your way. Given their prices and the matchup, if one of these guys runs away with the WR3 job, they have a decent shot at landing in winning lineups. 

At tight end, Cade Otton is completely uninspiring but also solid and dependable. His ceiling is low but he’s scored 7.4 or more points in four of six games. At his price, that’s at least a reasonable chance to appear in winning lineups. He also has 6 red zone targets, tied with Godwin and one behind Evans so his touchdown equity is pretty solid even though he’s only caught one so far. TE2 Payne Durham was a blocker but is out this week. Last week some guy named Ryan Miller filled in for him and caught a pass (woo!). I expect he’ll be elevated from the practice squad again, but just watch the news here. If he’s not elevated, it could be Ko Kieft in the TE2 role instead. Either of them would just be MME punt options. 

Baltimore

<< 90% OFF!!! >>

Don’t play DFS without it!

Use code OWS90


Kickoff Monday, Oct 21st 9:00pm Eastern

Chargers (
22.75) at

Cards (
21.75)

Over/Under 44.5

Tweet
Notes

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 7 closes out with the Chargers visiting the Cardinals for a 44 total game in which the Chargers, surprisingly (at least to me) are favored by a point and a half. I thought this was odd and then I realized that somehow the Chargers are 3-2 and have allowed just 13.2 points per game . . . like . . . what? I don’t tend to pay a ton of attention to the Chargers but apparently their defense has been ridiculously elite despite not being especially great at pressuring the QB and allowing only slightly below average rushing and passing yardage. They’ve just been really good at not letting drives become scores, and they’ve been quite good at getting turnovers at just the right time. I do think their defense is above average, but being THIS good feels like more luck than skill. Perhaps why Vegas has Arizona with a team total of roughly 21 points, well above what LA has allowed per game. 

Arizona

The Cards run game has been odd this year. James Conner is clearly their bell cow back with one of the stronger roles in the league . . . in most games. But, when they’re getting whomped (and remember, they’re bad), they’re fairly quick to turn it over to some combination of Emari Demercado and Trey Benson. This is a game with a close spread and the Chargers are not exactly an offensive powerhouse, so it’s pretty likely that it remains close, which means Conner is likelier to see the higher end of his range of outcomes. In the “heavy” Conner games he’s seen 20, 22, 19, and 22 opportunities – very nice. His passing game role has been a bit lighter than expected, with just 9 targets in those four games, but overall that’s a solid workload despite a mediocre matchup. He also has a stranglehold on goal line usage, as no other Arizona running back has touched the ball inside the 10 yard line (nor, interestingly, has Kyler attempted to run close into the goal). Strong workload and great goal line role, but a mediocre matchup – overall he’s priced about where he should be and is a reasonable option. Behind him Benson is questionable with an illness, and should he miss, that opens up more work for Demercado, but if the game remains close neither of these guys look awesome. Worth noting: Demercado saw 7 targets last week while the Cardinals were down big to Green Bay so there is a path to some ceiling for him in negative game scripts. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

The Cards passing game gets Marvin Harrison Jr. back, who didn’t even miss one game after suffering a concussion last week. Harrison has been extremely boom/bust so far, catching just 17 of 37 targets but putting up a 279/4 line on those 17 catches. His three best games, however, came against the Rams (awful defense all around), the Lions (huge pass funnel defense), and the Commanders (pretty bad all around). He’s super talented and can obviously hit in any matchup, but this doesn’t feel like the ideal spot to spend $10k for him (and in the games he hasn’t hit he’s scored 0, 1.4, and 5.6 DK points – the 0 was the concussion game, but still, it’s very all-or-nothing with MHJ). Michael Wilson fills the WR2 role, which has been fairly low upside with how this offense is just built around other pieces. He’s also $7,600, which seems wildly expensive for a guy with 30 targets on the season and a season-high of 14.4 DK points – seems like a spot where he was priced up in case MHJ missed. He’s a fairly thin pay up to be contrarian tournament option. OWS favorite Greg Dortch mans the slot but the role has been shaky as the Cards have run 12 personnel at one of the league’s highest rates this year, limiting Dortch to a high of 66% of the snaps (and an average of something like 52%) in games that Trey McBride plays in. Dortch is your prototypical low-volume slot receiver, which means he generally needs a lot of volume in order to pay off, and with the Cards passing game healthy and priced up to $5,200 from $3,800 the week before, he’s also a hard sell. Xavier Weaver stepped in as MHJ’s direct backup, playing 71% of the snaps but with 0 catches on a single target, I expect he goes back to the bench now, which just leaves Zach Pascal in a very modest rotational WR role. Meh. Finally, Zay Jones is over his suspension and hamstring injury – his return most likely impacts Dortch, I think, but we haven’t seen it play out. I’d definitely max 1 of Dortch and Jones, and think it’s possible that Jones could go overlooked in his first game back. 

At tight end, Trey McBride has been the steadiest pass catcher in this offense, and while MHJ’s arrival takes away some of the ceiling that we saw from him last season, he’s seen at least 6 targets in every game he’s played in. He’s the highest floor receiving option on the Cards, and while MHJ has a higher ceiling, McBride’s isn’t that far behind. You can probably guess at this point that I prefer McBride to MHJ, and you’d be right. TE2 Elijah Higgins is on the field enough to be viewed as a modest value option, while TE3 Tip Reiman is primarily a blocker without a real passing game role. 

Los Angeles

<< 90% OFF!!! >>

Don’t play DFS without it!

Use code OWS90