Kickoff Sunday, Oct 20th 1:00pm Eastern

Texans (
22.25) at

Packers (
25.25)

Over/Under 47.5

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Notes

Game Overview ::

By HILOW >>
  • I’m again writing this before the initial injury reports are released for each of these teams, but Texans S Jimmie Ward aggravated a groin injury in Week 6 and is set to miss this game while CB Kamari Lassiter is expected to miss a few more games.
  • Packers WR Dontayvion Wicks injured his shoulder in Week 6 and did not finish the game, but initial imaging revealed only a sprain and he is currently listed as day-to-day. I tentatively expect him to play against the Texans.
  • The turnover battle and the battle in the trenches between two middling offensive lines and two top defensive lines are likely to be the deciding factors in this one.
  • Six wide receivers and two tight ends played meaningful snaps for the Packers in Week 6, which was the first game in three weeks in which they had everyone healthy.
  • This game carries an extremely wide range of outcomes as far as the likeliest game flow goes, with everything from a defensive stalemate to a back-and-forth eruption on the table, making one-off plays a difficult sell and keeping game environment bets on the table in MME play.

How houston Will Try To Win ::

The Texans shifted their offense back to extreme rates of 12-personnel in Week 6 in the absence of Nico Collins, marking the second game this season with more than 50% 12-personnel utilization. With Brevin Jordan still out, that left Teagan Quitoriano to join starter Dalton Schultz and primary blocker Cade Stover as players to play meaningful snaps at the position. Robert Woods’ absence left WR3 duties to Xavier Hutchinson, but the elevated 12-personnel rate left him with only 50% of the offensive snaps. John Metchie filled a “package role” with a 38% snap rate while the backfield saw Joe Mixon eased back in after three missed games, with the veteran back playing only 42% of the offensive snaps. As far as offensive structure goes, the biggest change in the absence of Nico was the shift to 12-personnel, but the offense’s structure remained relatively consistent with layered routes to the intermediate and deep areas of the field through Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs and tight-end usage mostly as the outlet to the short areas of the field. That said, on 26 first-down plays against the Patriots, the Texans called 14 pass plays to 12 run plays, a stark departure from their offensive tendencies during the first five games of the 2024 season (and, frankly, something we’ve been dying to see from Bobby Slowik in a move away from the typical predictability of their play-calling tendencies). 

The Texans were never pressured into increased offensive aggression against the Patriots, a team with a rookie quarterback making his first NFL start, making the change in play-calling tendencies notable. That said, it could have also been influenced by the state of the backfield with both Mixon and Dameon Pierce playing their first game in a month. Time will tell if that trend carries forward now that Mixon and Pierce have their legs back under them.

Mixon returned from a lengthy absence to a 42% snap rate, something that was likely influenced by both his absence and the fact that the Patriots never threatened the Texans in Week 6. Still, he took 13 carries for 102 yards and a score and added a touchdown through the air on two receptions, leaving Mixon averaging 30.0 DK points per game in games he did not leave with injury this season. Yea, it’s a sample size of two, but that is impressive nonetheless and highlights why he was a heavy target of mine this offseason in best ball. I would expect the modest 42% snap rate to increase substantially in his second game back from injury, likely into the 65-70% range that he saw in Week 1 and was on his way to in Week 2 before departing with injury. The Texans are a middling offensive line this season, creating 1.86 adjusted yards before contact per attempt (17th) while the Packers have actually held their own against the run this year, ceding just 1.57 adjusted yards before contact per attempt (seventh) behind 4.3 yards allowed per attempt (11th). In other words, this is not the same plus-matchup we have come to know from the Packers of the previous three seasons under Joe Barry.

The shift to heavier rates of 12-personnel with Collins on injured reserve affected the rate at which the top pass catchers were on the field for the Texans, with Diggs holding a 79% snap rate, Dell holding a 74% snap rate, and Schultz holding an 86% snap rate. That held Diggs below double-digit targets for the fifth time in six games, something that had made his path to an elite GPP score a difficult one considering a modest 8.1-yard aDOT this season. That said, it was actually Diggs that served as the downfield threat instead of Dell, with the former seeing his aDOT jump to 14.6 yards in Week 6, something that came with a robust 43.6% air-yards share. Most notably, the Houston pass offense was highly concentrated, with only Diggs, Dell, the tight ends, and the running backs catching a pass. I expect Diggs and Dell to be the primary emphasis through the air in the coming weeks after combining for 16 targets on 31 Stroud pass attempts against the Patriots. Furthermore, the two combined for a ridiculous 76.2% first-read target rate and three end zone targets a week ago. If the Texans are succeeding through the air, it is highly likely that it’s primarily flowing through these two bodies.

How green bay Will Try To Win ::

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