Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Vikings RB Aaron Jones (hamstring) managed a limited sessions Thursday after missing practice Wednesday.
- Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson has been limited in practice each day since having his 21-day practice window opened. I would think the team wants him to get in a full practice prior to bringing him back to the active roster, which has yet to happen to this point. As such, I expect another missed game for Hockenson unless he increases his participation level to a full practice Friday.
- Lions CB Carlton Davis (quad) missed practice both days so far this week (as of Thursday) while the team prepares for life after Aidan Hutchinson, who broke both bones in the bottom half of his leg in the team’s Week 6 win.
- On that note, Hutchinson has been responsible for 7.5 of the 15 total sacks by the Lions the season, a team that is ranked 30th in pressure rate (26.1%).
- The Lions (+7.2%) and Vikings (+6.0%) are first and fourth in pass rate over expectation (PROE) forced on defense, respectively. As in, these are two of the top four most pass-funnel defenses in the league.
- The 5-0 Vikings host the 4-1 Lions for sole possession of first place in the most competitive division in football. Get your popcorn ready for this one, y’all!
How detroit Will Try To Win ::
The Lions are one of the few teams in the league that can beat you in multiple different ways, with an offensive line that ranks top five in both run-blocking and pass protection, a skill position corps that rivals any team in the league, and a defense that forces you to beat them through the air, presenting the most pass-funnel matchup in the league. That said, this is not an easy spot against a Vikings defense allowing the fewest yards before contact per attempt (0.81), generating pressure at the fourth highest rate (38.8%), ranking second in takeaways per game (2.6), third in points allowed per game (15.2), and remains unpredictable enough to confuse even the best, or most veteran, quarterbacks. This defense held the 49ers to 17 points, the Texans to seven points, held the Packers scoreless until 15 seconds remaining in the first half (and then saw soft zone exploited in the second half), and the Jets to 17 points this season. So, while the Lions lead the league with 30.2 points per game, this is one of the most difficult tests they will face all season. That should keep offensive coordinator Aaron Glenn aggressive throughout, but the fact that so much of his offense is built behind the run game, and that this is one of the more difficult pure rushing matchups in the league, means the Lions carry a wider range of outcomes than their lofty points per game total suggests. Furthermore, the Detroit defense has generated pressure at the third-lowest frequency and just lost the EDGE player responsible for 7.5 of their 15 total sacks this season in Aidan Hutchinson, making this a rare occasion where the Lions might not be able to control the game environment as has been the norm lately.
Second-year running back Jahmyr Gibbs is the 1A in a tight timeshare with veteran David Montgomery, with the latter typically seeing increased snap rates and opportunity shares in game environments that clearly tilt to a run-heavy approach. This is not one of those instances. Considering the Vikings have forced the fourth-highest PROE this season, it stands to reason that this is a spot where Gibbs takes on a larger snap rate and workload. That has typically settled in the 60-65% snap rate and opportunity share range this year, likely leaving Montgomery in the 35-40% range for each category.
Quarterback Jared Goff has not thrown the football more than 25 times in a game in over a month, last doing so in Week 2 against the Buccaneers (55 pass attempts). The Buccaneers present another pass-funnel matchup and were able to sneak out of that game with a win, resembling the setup for Week 7 more than any other game for the Lions this season. I don’t expect Goff to attempt 55 passes again, but this is definitely a spot where the team is likelier to attempt more passes than their 30.6 pass attempts per game seasonal average. Against another aggressive defensive coordinator in Week 2, Goff fed Amon-Ra St. Brown 18 targets on his 55 pass attempts, with Jameson Williams checking in second with 11 looks. No other pass-catcher saw more than seven targets (Jahmyr Gibbs). That should be a familiar sight to what we expect to see against the Vikings, with St. Brown the primary outlet when Goff is pressured and Williams the shot-taking option downfield in the soft spots left behind via the blitz. Furthering that setup is a Vikings defense in two-high alignments at a robust 74.4% frequency, with St. Brown (0.85 FP/RR, 42.9% first-read target rate, and 2.56 YPRR) and Williams (0.46 FP/RR, 33.3% first-read target rate, and 2.57 YPRR) leading the team against two-high alignments this season. Every other pass-catcher on this team has seen a 7.3% target share or less against two-high alignments this season.
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