GAME Overview ::
By HILOW >>
- Only depth OT Frank Crum (illness) missed practice on Wednesday for the Broncos as they enter the playoffs one of the more healthy teams remaining.
- The Bills are almost amongst the healthier teams entering the postseason, with only depth CB Ja’Marcus Ingram held out of practice on Wednesday and Thursday.
- The Denver backfield has become a maddening three-headed timeshare led by Jaleel McLaughlin.
- Courtland Sutton in the last four games since the team’s Week 14 bye: 0.25 targets per route run, 1.97 yards per route run, and 0.50 fantasy points per route run.
- Josh Allen scored six of his 12 rushing touchdowns in three games this season. Those opponents were the Lions, Rams, and Chiefs, three playoff teams. Those were also the only three games this season in which Allen had double-digit rush attempts.
HOW denver WILL TRY TO WIN ::
The Broncos finished the regular season ranked seventh in pass rate over expectation (PROE), largely thanks to three games this season with a pass rate greater than one standard deviation over expectation. They had one such game with a pass rate greater than one standard deviation below expectation, hovering right around expectation for the final month of the regular season following their Week 14 bye and as they made the final push towards the postseason. The strength of this Denver team is most definitely its defense, but their offense has also come on strong as rookie quarterback Bo Nix got more starts under his belt. They managed to score 24 or more points in each of their final seven games, averaging 32.6 points per game in that stretch. After starting his career slow with no multi-touchdown games through his first four starts, Bo Nix tossed multiple touchdowns in all but two of his final 13 games this season. A total of 32-35 pass attempts should be viewed as the baseline for Nix here, with upside for more if the Broncos find themselves chasing points.
The team’s Week 14 bye appears to have given them an opportunity to reassess their backfield after starting the season with Javonte Williams in a lead-back role and Jaleel McLaughlin in a change-of-pace role. Things really shifted after their bye, as the backfield is now a tight three-man rotation amongst Williams, McLaughlin, and rookie Audric Estime. Estime is the best pure runner on the roster, which the underlying metrics support, but he is more of a straight-ahead runner than the more shifty McLaughlin, while Williams continues to earn snaps due to his above-average pass protection and hands. During this most recent four-game stretch, it has been McLaughlin serving as the primary runner, Williams in on clear passing situations, and Estime the change-of-pace option, which I expect to carry forward into the playoffs. That setup likely leaves 10-12 carries and a few targets as McLaughlin’s baseline, 9-12 carries for Estime as a baseline, and 4-5 targets for Williams as a baseline. The matchup on the ground against the Bills remains solid on paper after they allowed 2.13 yards before contact per attempt (12th most), 4.5 yards per carry, and 24.2 fantasy points per game (fifth most) to opposing backfields this season.
Marvin Mims had three blowup games in his last five appearances to end the season, but he is one of seven pass catchers behind Sutton to regularly play between 30% and 50% of the team’s offensive snaps since their Week 14 bye. The offense is structured such that only Sutton plays in a near every-down role at present, with Mims, Lil’Jordan Humphrey, Devaughn Vele, Troy Franklin, and tight ends Adam Trautman, Nate Adkins, and Lucas Krull all serving in situational roles. While Sutton is the player likeliest to see significant volume on a weekly basis, he has seen double-digit targets just once in his last eight games. Furthermore, Sutton has been in a route on a modest 77.3% clip since the team’s Week 14 bye, with just a 0.25 targets per route run, 1.97 yards per route run, and 0.50 fantasy points per route run in that span. This is very much a “spread the wealth” offense in its current state.
