GAME Overview ::

By HILOW >>

• Chargers WR Joshua Palmer (foot) did not practice Tuesday or Wednesday after missing the team’s Week 18 win that secured a playoff bid. It now looks as if he is in danger of missing the team’s Wild Card matchup with the Texans.
• Chargers RB Gus Edwards (ankle) returned to a limited session Tuesday after missing the previous two games. It’s looking like he will return to the active roster come Saturday.
• The Chargers signed veteran free agent RB Ezekiel Elliott after the team’s Week 18 win.
• Chargers WR Quentin Johnston was limited on Tuesday with a hip issue before sitting out practice Wednesday with an illness. He could draw an injury designation for Saturday if he does not upgrade to a full participant Thursday, although it certainly seems like he will be good to go.
• The Texans are relatively banged up heading into the postseason. Most notably, DE Denico Autry (knee), OG Shaq Mason (knee), and WR John Metchie (shoulder) were absent from practice Tuesday and Wednesday. Previous reports out of Houston indicated Autry would attempt to play this weekend.
• You have to go all the way back to Week 12 to find a game in which the Chargers had more rush attempts than pass attempts, as they have been forced to adapt a more pass-centric offense due to efficiency concerns on the ground.

HOW LOS ANGELES WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Chargers were cruising towards the playoffs with five games remaining before dropping consecutive contests to the Chiefs (by two points) and Buccaneers (blown out, 40-17), forcing them into a “playoffs now” mindset for the remaining three games. Over those final three games against the Broncos, Patriots, and Raiders, the Chargers held an 11^th-ranked pass rate over expectation (PROE) while being over expectation in all three games. Their 4.9% PROE in those three games was slightly more than their 4.0% over expectation since their Week 5 bye, giving us a solid indication of how this team has approached games with everything on the line. In those final three games, quarterback Justin Herbert attempted 36 passes (Raiders), 38 passes (Patriots), and 31 passes (Broncos) versus 35 team rush attempts (Raiders), 37 team rush attempts (Patriots), and 28 team rush attempts (Broncos). In fact, you have to go all the way back to Week 10 against the Titans to find a game in which the Chargers had more rush attempts than pass attempts this season. But that also makes a lot of sense considering the state of this team after they averaged 4.1 yards per carry (24^th) and 7.6 yards per pass attempt (ninth) this year. Expect a solid baseline of 32-34 pass attempts with rushing volume largely dependent on the eventual flow of the game.

The Chargers have not had both J.K. Dobbins and Edwards healthy for a game since their Week 12 loss to the Ravens. Dobbins got hurt in that contest, leaving Edwards and Kimani Vidal to share the backfield for the following four games. And then Edwards got hurt the game before Dobbins returned, with the former missing the next two games to end the regular season. The truth of the matter here is that this backfield has been in constant fluctuation all season. With it now being the playoffs, with everything on the line, I see no reason why the team should trot out anybody other than Dobbins for as long as he can handle the workload. Realize that is a fantastical view on who in the backfield gives this team the best chances of being effective based on the sample we have from this season, with the reality probably closer to a 65/35 to 75/25 split between the two atop the depth chart. Yes, Ezekiel Elliott was signed earlier this week for some God-awful reason, but I don’t expect him to contribute in any meaningful capacity after having to pick up an entirely new offense within five calendar days. I would expect him to be inactive come Saturday, likely leaving Hassan Haskins to serve as the RB3 behind Dobbins and Edwards. This team has not had a game this season with more than three running backs active, making it likely we see Vidal join Zeke as a game-day inactive due to Haskins’ contributions on special teams. That should leave a baseline expectation of 16-18 carries for Dobbins and 10-12 for Edwards, assuming neutral game script, with deviations based on game flow from there. The matchup against the Texans is suboptimal on the ground considering they have allowed just 1.99 yard before contact per attempt (16^th), 4.3 yards per carry (13^th), and 17.9 fantasy points per game (fourth) to opposing backfields this season.

It currently looks like Palmer is going to miss his second consecutive game after failing to practice in any capacity Tuesday or Wednesday as he deals with a foot injury. In his absence last week, rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey (68% snap share, 81.6% route participation) and Quentin Johnston (73% snap share, 84.2% route participation) were the clear top options through the air, joined by tight end Will Dissly (65.8% route participation) as the only three pass catchers to be in a route for more than half of Justin Herbert dropbacks. DJ Chark, Derius Davis, and tight end Stone Smartt all held route participation rates between 44.7% and 21.1%, effectively all operating as situational players in the offense. The likely absence of Palmer thusly creates an interesting setup due to the expectation of moderate-to-heavy pass volume via end-of-season tendencies from the Chargers, making both McConkey and Johnston intriguing this weekend. Johnston is coming off a career game in which he posted a gaudy 13-186 receiving line on 14 targets, but that was only the second time all season he has seen more than eight targets. McConkey has functioned as the primary engine of the aerial offense all season but has also seen double-digit targets just twice this year, albeit coming with a much higher floor and median than Johnston. The Texans rank 18^th in fantasy points allowed to both wide receivers and tight ends in 2024, but Dissly will likely need to find paint at least once to matter on any of the slates he is on this weekend.

How HOUSTON Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• The Steelers have some sort of illness rolling through the locker room. Both K Chris Boswell and DT Cameron Heyward missed practice Wednesday with illness.
• Ravens ruled out WR Zay Flowers (knee) after he suffered a knee injury in the team’s Week 18 win over the Browns.
• Ravens RB Justice Hill (concussion/illness) upgraded to full practice Wednesday after missing the final two games of the regular season.
• Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth saw his highest route participation rate (83.8%) and most targets of the season (11) in Week 18 against the Bengals.
• Since George Pickens’ injury in Week 13, Russell Wilson had a lowly 61.1% completion rate, 5.74 yards per attempt, just six touchdowns in five games, a 10.7% deep throw rate, and 0.41 fantasy points per dropback.
• While Zay Flowers’s absence is likely to return more congestion to the intermediate areas of the field, it is also likely to condense the target distribution heavily among Rashod Bateman, Mark Andrews, and Isaiah Likely.

How pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::

The Steelers really struggled to end the season, dropping each of their final four games of the regular season to the Eagles, Ravens, Chiefs, and Bengals. While all four of those losses were at the hands of potential playoff teams, the results were far from ideal. Even so, Pittsburgh finished the regular season with a 10-7 record and earned a trip to the postseason for the fourth time in the previous five seasons (missed the playoffs in 2022). The structure of this team remains largely the same as it has during that stretch, with a game plan built around their defense, a methodical approach on offense, and a goal of managing most games they are in. We saw that game plan in both matchups with the Ravens this season, winning the first in an 18-16 game at home and dropping the second in a 34-17 loss on the road. They managed to take a 9-7 lead into the half of that first game and trailed the Ravens 17-10 at the break in the second. All of that should highlight how we expect the Steelers to behave here, with an aim at shortening the game and “winning ugly” against one of the top offenses in the league. Their defense should be focused on containing Lamar Jackson and not allowing him to escape forward or off edge, instead keeping him confined to the pocket.

Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren continue to share the backfield load, typically split somewhere in the 65/35 to 55/45 range, depending on game flow. Harris is typically given more work in neutral-to-positive game environments, while Warren typically sees more work in negative game scripts. Cordarrelle Patterson continues to see a handful of snaps each week but is highly unlikely to return enough to be viable in a fantasy setting. The matchup on the ground against the Ravens is about as difficult as they come considering they have allowed just 1.66 yards before contact per attempt (fourth), 3.6 yards per carry (first), and 18.0 fantasy points per game (fifth) to opposing backfields this season, notably holding the combination of Harris and Warren to 90 yards on 21 carries in their second meeting and 104 yards on 27 carries in their first meeting. The sledding is expected to be tough here, with ultimate volume dependent on Pittsburgh’s ability to keep Lamar Jackson in check on the other side.

George Pickens absence from Week 14 to Week 16 really threw a wrench in this Pittsburgh aerial attack. From Week 14 on, Russell Wilson had a lowly 61.1% completion rate, 5.74 yards per attempt, just six touchdowns in five games, a 10.7% deep throw rate, and 0.41 fantasy points per dropback. Compare those to the 65.8% completion rate, 8.70 yards per attempt, 10 touchdowns, 15.0% deep throw rate, and 0.52 fantasy points per dropback from Week 7 to Week 13 after taking over under center, and it’s clear how much the passing offense struggled through Pickens injury and the two games after he came back to end the regular season. Mike Williams still has yet to become more than a package player in the offense after being acquired at the trade deadline, leaving Van Jefferson and Calvin Austin to serve as the primary “starters” alongside Pickens. Tight end Pat Freiermuth has been in a route at a modest 71.4% clip this season. The two final games of the regular season were the first games in which he saw more than a modest seven targets, seeing eight against the Chiefs in Week 17 (68.8% route participation) and 11 against the Bengals in Week 18 (83.8% route participation).

How baltimore Will Try To Win ::

GAME Overview ::

By HILOW >>

• Only depth OT Frank Crum (illness) missed practice on Wednesday for the Broncos as they enter the playoffs one of the more healthy teams remaining.
• The Bills are almost amongst the healthier teams entering the postseason, with only depth CB Ja’Marcus Ingram held out of practice on Wednesday and Thursday.
• The Denver backfield has become a maddening three-headed timeshare led by Jaleel McLaughlin.
• Courtland Sutton in the last four games since the team’s Week 14 bye: 0.25 targets per route run, 1.97 yards per route run, and 0.50 fantasy points per route run.
• Josh Allen scored six of his 12 rushing touchdowns in three games this season. Those opponents were the Lions, Rams, and Chiefs, three playoff teams. Those were also the only three games this season in which Allen had double-digit rush attempts.

HOW denver WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Broncos finished the regular season ranked seventh in pass rate over expectation (PROE), largely thanks to three games this season with a pass rate greater than one standard deviation over expectation. They had one such game with a pass rate greater than one standard deviation below expectation, hovering right around expectation for the final month of the regular season following their Week 14 bye and as they made the final push towards the postseason. The strength of this Denver team is most definitely its defense, but their offense has also come on strong as rookie quarterback Bo Nix got more starts under his belt. They managed to score 24 or more points in each of their final seven games, averaging 32.6 points per game in that stretch. After starting his career slow with no multi-touchdown games through his first four starts, Bo Nix tossed multiple touchdowns in all but two of his final 13 games this season. A total of 32-35 pass attempts should be viewed as the baseline for Nix here, with upside for more if the Broncos find themselves chasing points.

The team’s Week 14 bye appears to have given them an opportunity to reassess their backfield after starting the season with Javonte Williams in a lead-back role and Jaleel McLaughlin in a change-of-pace role. Things really shifted after their bye, as the backfield is now a tight three-man rotation amongst Williams, McLaughlin, and rookie Audric Estime. Estime is the best pure runner on the roster, which the underlying metrics support, but he is more of a straight-ahead runner than the more shifty McLaughlin, while Williams continues to earn snaps due to his above-average pass protection and hands. During this most recent four-game stretch, it has been McLaughlin serving as the primary runner, Williams in on clear passing situations, and Estime the change-of-pace option, which I expect to carry forward into the playoffs. That setup likely leaves 10-12 carries and a few targets as McLaughlin’s baseline, 9-12 carries for Estime as a baseline, and 4-5 targets for Williams as a baseline. The matchup on the ground against the Bills remains solid on paper after they allowed 2.13 yards before contact per attempt (12^th most), 4.5 yards per carry, and 24.2 fantasy points per game (fifth most) to opposing backfields this season.

Marvin Mims had three blowup games in his last five appearances to end the season, but he is one of seven pass catchers behind Sutton to regularly play between 30% and 50% of the team’s offensive snaps since their Week 14 bye. The offense is structured such that only Sutton plays in a near every-down role at present, with Mims, Lil’Jordan Humphrey, Devaughn Vele, Troy Franklin, and tight ends Adam Trautman, Nate Adkins, and Lucas Krull all serving in situational roles. While Sutton is the player likeliest to see significant volume on a weekly basis, he has seen double-digit targets just once in his last eight games. Furthermore, Sutton has been in a route on a modest 77.3% clip since the team’s Week 14 bye, with just a 0.25 targets per route run, 1.97 yards per route run, and 0.50 fantasy points per route run in that span. This is very much a “spread the wealth” offense in its current state.

How BUFFALO Will Try To Win ::

GAME Overview ::

By MIKE JOHNSON >>

• This game is a rematch of a Week 1 game played between these two teams in Brazil, which the Eagles won, 34-29.
• These were two of the three most run-heavy teams in the NFL this season.
• Eagles QB Jalen Hurts is expected to return from a two-week absence from a concussion, while Packers QB Jordan Love should also be good to go after injuring his elbow in Week 18.
• Prior to Week 18, Green Bay’s only losses this season had been to the teams with the three best records in the NFC.

HOW GREEN BAY WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Packers enter this season’s playoffs hoping to build off last season’s surprising playoff run, but they will have a bit of a tougher path to follow as they start out heading to Philadelphia to face an Eagles team who lost only one home game this season – way back in Week 2 against the Falcons on a last-second field goal while playing without A.J. Brown. Per the Elias Sports Bureau, the Packers are the second-youngest team to make the playoffs over the last 45 seasons behind only…last year’s Packers team. Green Bay has had a terrific season but has struggled to show they can beat higher-caliber opponents. Green Bay won 11 games this season, but only two of those games were against opponents who ended up making the playoffs – the Rams and Texans. A deeper look at those losses reveals that they beat the Rams by only five points despite the fact that they were missing Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, and several key members of their offensive line and secondary….while the Texans were missing offensive focal point Nico Collins and Green Bay needed a game-saving drive and buzzer-beating field goal to win that one by a score of 24-22. Green Bay has looked great at times this season, but in hindsight we can see that they have yet to prove they are capable of beating a high-caliber opponent at full strength.

Green Bay’s approach is generally very predictable, as they rank 30th in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE) and have leaned on RB Josh Jacobs to the tune of nearly 340 touches this season. In the first matchup between these teams, way back in Week 1, the Packers threw the ball at a relatively high rate (for them), with 34 Love pass attempts compared to only 20 running back carries in a game where they never trailed by more than one score and led for much of the game. As the season wore on and Jacobs grew into his bell-cow role, the Packers have leaned even more on the running game. That was most apparent in a Week 17 loss to the Vikings where Green Bay had only a 45% pass rate through three quarters despite trailing 27-10. The strangest thing about that approach is the fact that the Minnesota run defense has been so strong and it seemed evident coming in that the Packers would likely need to shift from their standard approach in order to have a chance. Hopefully head coach Matt LaFleur has learned from his mistakes, as this week Green Bay faces an elite Eagles defensive front that ranks No. 2 in both PFF run-defense grade and run-defense DVOA. If the Packers are going to have a chance, they will likely need to lean much more on Love early in the game than they have shown a willingness to do for most of this year.

Green Bay will be without WR Christian Watson, who tore his ACL in Week 18. This should leave Dontayvion Wicks and Romeo Doubs as the primary perimeter wide receivers, while slot man Jayden Reed will play his usual role and tight end Tucker Kraft looks to build on his breakout campaign. Reed had 171 total yards and two touchdowns in the first matchup between these teams, but he’s had a relatively disappointing sophomore season. He is someone who the Packers may look to get going, as this Eagles defense is also strong on the perimeter but has given up several big games to slot WRs this season including Olamide Zaccheaus and Adam Thielen within the last month. The Packers are unlikely to abandon the run, as it is just too much of who they are at this point in the season, but if they want to break through with a win against a quality opponent then they are going to have to throw the ball at something closer to a league-average rate rather than their usual approach.

How PHILADELPHIA Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• This is a rematch of a game from Week 1, which the Bucs won 37-20.
• The Commanders backfield will be at full strength for the first time in weeks as Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler are both good to go.
• This game gives us a classic matchup between Commanders CB Marshon Lattimore and Bucs WR Mike Evans, who have a history of physical encounters that tend to escalate.
• Both offenses are among the top five in the NFL in scoring, and both defenses are susceptible to big plays, especially through the air. This is reflected in this game’s over/under, which is the highest of this weekend’s games.

How Washington Will Try To Win ::

The Commanders have had a charmed season and finished the first year under Dan Quinn’s leadership with a 12-5 record. Washington QB Jayden Daniels, the likely NFL offensive rookie of the year, has been the biggest catalyst to the quick turnaround for the franchise as his dual-threat ability and elite passing performance have turned this into one of the most potent offenses in the league. Washington ranks 5th in the NFL averaging 28.5 points per game and has been particularly strong against mediocre or weak competition. The Bucs defense is not a pushover, but they are far from elite and have “pass funnel” tendencies. This game sets up very well for the Commanders offense for a variety of reasons.

The Commanders know that Daniels is the one who got them here and they are likely to ride him this week as they look to continue their surprisingly great season. Daniels set his season high for rush attempts with 16, the first time these teams played way back in Week 1. That amount was matched only once the rest of the season, which was coincidentally Week 17 against the Falcons as Washington looked to secure a playoff berth. The Commanders appeared to be intentionally holding Daniels back a bit for his own good for much of the season, but the dynamics of those two games, particularly when they happened, can tell us a lot. Daniels ran A LOT in his first game as that was his tendency and first instinct when he needed to make something happen. He also ran A LOT when the team’s back was against the wall and they were trying to survive against the Falcons with the season on the line. Now that the team is in the playoffs and there is no tomorrow without success today, it is reasonable to assume Daniels will attempt to play “Superman” in this matchup as well. The Bucs defense has been very good against the run all season while getting torched through the air several times. Washington is likely to struggle running the ball this week as their offensive line has really not been great all season and the Bucs front is likely to cause them fits. This means that the Commanders offensive production will almost entirely come from the passing game and Daniels running the ball. Tampa Bay ranks 23rd in DVOA against opposing WR1s, 27th against tight ends, and 28th against running backs. The Bucs have also been burned repeatedly by opposing slot wide receivers. This all sets up very well for the Commanders offense. Terry McLaurin is a dynamic WR1 with great chemistry with Daniels; Zach Ertz continues to play at a high level; Olamide Zaccheaus is blossoming in a bigger role as the primary slot WR; and Austin Ekeler is now back to make plays in the passing game out of the backfield. Expect the dispersion among the Commanders skill players to be relatively evenly distributed, but Daniels to be involved in everything in one way or another.

How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike Johnson >>

• This game has been moved to a neutral site (Arizona) due to the current wildfires in Los Angeles.
• These teams played earlier this season in a Thursday night game in Minnesota, with the Rams pulling off the 30-20 victory.
• Los Angeles enters this game well rested after giving many of their key players Week 18 off, while Minnesota is trying to bounce back from a tough loss in Detroit.
• Rams WR Cooper Kupp has scored less than six fantasy points in four of his last five games.

How Minnesota Will Try To Win ::

The Vikings have had an incredible season and smashed their season win total line by several games with a 14-3 record, but were thoroughly beaten by the Lions last Sunday night to lose the NFC North and fall to the NFC’s 5th seed thanks to the NFL’s playoff seeding rules. Minnesota has been outstanding for much of the season, but their three losses have been against teams that lie directly in their path to the Super Bowl – twice to the Lions and once to the Rams. The Vikings defense has been terrific, ranking as one of the top run defenses in the league and confusing opposing quarterbacks with their chaotic and aggressive blitz schemes but the offense has had plenty to do with it as well. 

Vikings QB Sam Darnold has been one of the best storylines of this NFL season as his journey has taken him full circle from highly touted draft pick to giant bust to discarded backup to veteran stopgap to Pro Bowler and borderline MVP candidate. Darnold has finally made good on the promise that made him the #3 overall pick several years ago as head coach Kevin O’Connell has worked his magic and unlocked Darnold’s potential. There is no shortage of weapons for Darnold, highlighted by all-world WR Justin Jefferson. In last week’s loss to the Lions, Jefferson had very little production but the opportunities were there as Darnold missed him on several occasions where Jefferson had beaten his man including multiple times in the end zone. Jefferson is complemented by breakout second year WR Jordan Addison and veteran TE TJ Hockenson, who is rounding into form after missing the early part of the season. Veteran RB Aaron Jones has been solid all season and stayed available, but injuries seem to be mounting a bit as he has played under 60% of the snaps in the last two weeks while leaving the field nursing apparent injuries, and backup RB Cam Akers has looked solid in his limited work. Finally, the Vikings have benefitted from contributions from WR3 Jalen Nailor and their backup tight ends as players who are good enough to make defenses pay for giving Minnesota’s stars too much attention as O’Connell’s play calling has been terrific this season.

The Vikings rank 3rd in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE) as they have leaned on their weapons and continued their offensive approach despite this year’s QB change. Darnold ranks 10th in the NFL among QBs in intended air yards per pass attempt as he has consistently pushed the ball downfield. Last week the Lions exploited the fact that Darnold can still get flustered when faced with consistent pressure, as they forced him into his worst game of the season. Luckily for Darnold and the Vikings, the Rams rank 20th in the NFL in both blitz rate and QB pressure rate while the Lions ranked 2nd and 4th in those respective categories, which means that he should have much cleaner pockets this week. The Lions also play man coverage at the highest rate in the league, while the Rams rank 4th in the NFL in zone coverage rate. Most of Darnold’s best games this season have come against teams who play primarily zone coverage (GB, CHI, IND, ATL) which, along with the likely decrease in pressure he’s dealing with should give him every opportunity to bounce back from last week’s performance. Expect the backfield to still be involved, but Darnold and his elite pass catchers will be leaned on heavily in this one.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::