Game Overview ::
By mike johnson >>
- This is a rematch of a game from Week 1, which the Bucs won 37-20.
- The Commanders backfield will be at full strength for the first time in weeks as Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler are both good to go.
- This game gives us a classic matchup between Commanders CB Marshon Lattimore and Bucs WR Mike Evans, who have a history of physical encounters that tend to escalate.
- Both offenses are among the top five in the NFL in scoring, and both defenses are susceptible to big plays, especially through the air. This is reflected in this game’s over/under, which is the highest of this weekend’s games.
How Washington Will Try To Win ::
The Commanders have had a charmed season and finished the first year under Dan Quinn’s leadership with a 12-5 record. Washington QB Jayden Daniels, the likely NFL offensive rookie of the year, has been the biggest catalyst to the quick turnaround for the franchise as his dual-threat ability and elite passing performance have turned this into one of the most potent offenses in the league. Washington ranks 5th in the NFL averaging 28.5 points per game and has been particularly strong against mediocre or weak competition. The Bucs defense is not a pushover, but they are far from elite and have “pass funnel” tendencies. This game sets up very well for the Commanders offense for a variety of reasons.
The Commanders know that Daniels is the one who got them here and they are likely to ride him this week as they look to continue their surprisingly great season. Daniels set his season high for rush attempts with 16, the first time these teams played way back in Week 1. That amount was matched only once the rest of the season, which was coincidentally Week 17 against the Falcons as Washington looked to secure a playoff berth. The Commanders appeared to be intentionally holding Daniels back a bit for his own good for much of the season, but the dynamics of those two games, particularly when they happened, can tell us a lot. Daniels ran A LOT in his first game as that was his tendency and first instinct when he needed to make something happen. He also ran A LOT when the team’s back was against the wall and they were trying to survive against the Falcons with the season on the line. Now that the team is in the playoffs and there is no tomorrow without success today, it is reasonable to assume Daniels will attempt to play “Superman” in this matchup as well. The Bucs defense has been very good against the run all season while getting torched through the air several times. Washington is likely to struggle running the ball this week as their offensive line has really not been great all season and the Bucs front is likely to cause them fits. This means that the Commanders offensive production will almost entirely come from the passing game and Daniels running the ball. Tampa Bay ranks 23rd in DVOA against opposing WR1s, 27th against tight ends, and 28th against running backs. The Bucs have also been burned repeatedly by opposing slot wide receivers. This all sets up very well for the Commanders offense. Terry McLaurin is a dynamic WR1 with great chemistry with Daniels; Zach Ertz continues to play at a high level; Olamide Zaccheaus is blossoming in a bigger role as the primary slot WR; and Austin Ekeler is now back to make plays in the passing game out of the backfield. Expect the dispersion among the Commanders skill players to be relatively evenly distributed, but Daniels to be involved in everything in one way or another.
