GAME Overview ::
By HILOW >>
- Chargers WR Joshua Palmer (foot) did not practice Tuesday or Wednesday after missing the team’s Week 18 win that secured a playoff bid. It now looks as if he is in danger of missing the team’s Wild Card matchup with the Texans.
- Chargers RB Gus Edwards (ankle) returned to a limited session Tuesday after missing the previous two games. It’s looking like he will return to the active roster come Saturday.
- The Chargers signed veteran free agent RB Ezekiel Elliott after the team’s Week 18 win.
- Chargers WR Quentin Johnston was limited on Tuesday with a hip issue before sitting out practice Wednesday with an illness. He could draw an injury designation for Saturday if he does not upgrade to a full participant Thursday, although it certainly seems like he will be good to go.
- The Texans are relatively banged up heading into the postseason. Most notably, DE Denico Autry (knee), OG Shaq Mason (knee), and WR John Metchie (shoulder) were absent from practice Tuesday and Wednesday. Previous reports out of Houston indicated Autry would attempt to play this weekend.
- You have to go all the way back to Week 12 to find a game in which the Chargers had more rush attempts than pass attempts, as they have been forced to adapt a more pass-centric offense due to efficiency concerns on the ground.
HOW LOS ANGELES WILL TRY TO WIN ::
The Chargers were cruising towards the playoffs with five games remaining before dropping consecutive contests to the Chiefs (by two points) and Buccaneers (blown out, 40-17), forcing them into a “playoffs now” mindset for the remaining three games. Over those final three games against the Broncos, Patriots, and Raiders, the Chargers held an 11th-ranked pass rate over expectation (PROE) while being over expectation in all three games. Their 4.9% PROE in those three games was slightly more than their 4.0% over expectation since their Week 5 bye, giving us a solid indication of how this team has approached games with everything on the line. In those final three games, quarterback Justin Herbert attempted 36 passes (Raiders), 38 passes (Patriots), and 31 passes (Broncos) versus 35 team rush attempts (Raiders), 37 team rush attempts (Patriots), and 28 team rush attempts (Broncos). In fact, you have to go all the way back to Week 10 against the Titans to find a game in which the Chargers had more rush attempts than pass attempts this season. But that also makes a lot of sense considering the state of this team after they averaged 4.1 yards per carry (24th) and 7.6 yards per pass attempt (ninth) this year. Expect a solid baseline of 32-34 pass attempts with rushing volume largely dependent on the eventual flow of the game.
The Chargers have not had both J.K. Dobbins and Edwards healthy for a game since their Week 12 loss to the Ravens. Dobbins got hurt in that contest, leaving Edwards and Kimani Vidal to share the backfield for the following four games. And then Edwards got hurt the game before Dobbins returned, with the former missing the next two games to end the regular season. The truth of the matter here is that this backfield has been in constant fluctuation all season. With it now being the playoffs, with everything on the line, I see no reason why the team should trot out anybody other than Dobbins for as long as he can handle the workload. Realize that is a fantastical view on who in the backfield gives this team the best chances of being effective based on the sample we have from this season, with the reality probably closer to a 65/35 to 75/25 split between the two atop the depth chart. Yes, Ezekiel Elliott was signed earlier this week for some God-awful reason, but I don’t expect him to contribute in any meaningful capacity after having to pick up an entirely new offense within five calendar days. I would expect him to be inactive come Saturday, likely leaving Hassan Haskins to serve as the RB3 behind Dobbins and Edwards. This team has not had a game this season with more than three running backs active, making it likely we see Vidal join Zeke as a game-day inactive due to Haskins’ contributions on special teams. That should leave a baseline expectation of 16-18 carries for Dobbins and 10-12 for Edwards, assuming neutral game script, with deviations based on game flow from there. The matchup against the Texans is suboptimal on the ground considering they have allowed just 1.99 yard before contact per attempt (16th), 4.3 yards per carry (13th), and 17.9 fantasy points per game (fourth) to opposing backfields this season.
It currently looks like Palmer is going to miss his second consecutive game after failing to practice in any capacity Tuesday or Wednesday as he deals with a foot injury. In his absence last week, rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey (68% snap share, 81.6% route participation) and Quentin Johnston (73% snap share, 84.2% route participation) were the clear top options through the air, joined by tight end Will Dissly (65.8% route participation) as the only three pass catchers to be in a route for more than half of Justin Herbert dropbacks. DJ Chark, Derius Davis, and tight end Stone Smartt all held route participation rates between 44.7% and 21.1%, effectively all operating as situational players in the offense. The likely absence of Palmer thusly creates an interesting setup due to the expectation of moderate-to-heavy pass volume via end-of-season tendencies from the Chargers, making both McConkey and Johnston intriguing this weekend. Johnston is coming off a career game in which he posted a gaudy 13-186 receiving line on 14 targets, but that was only the second time all season he has seen more than eight targets. McConkey has functioned as the primary engine of the aerial offense all season but has also seen double-digit targets just twice this year, albeit coming with a much higher floor and median than Johnston. The Texans rank 18th in fantasy points allowed to both wide receivers and tight ends in 2024, but Dissly will likely need to find paint at least once to matter on any of the slates he is on this weekend.
