Game Overview ::
By Mike Johnson >>
- This game has been moved to a neutral site (Arizona) due to the current wildfires in Los Angeles.
- These teams played earlier this season in a Thursday night game in Minnesota, with the Rams pulling off the 30-20 victory.
- Los Angeles enters this game well rested after giving many of their key players Week 18 off, while Minnesota is trying to bounce back from a tough loss in Detroit.
- Rams WR Cooper Kupp has scored less than six fantasy points in four of his last five games.
How Minnesota Will Try To Win ::
The Vikings have had an incredible season and smashed their season win total line by several games with a 14-3 record, but were thoroughly beaten by the Lions last Sunday night to lose the NFC North and fall to the NFC’s 5th seed thanks to the NFL’s playoff seeding rules. Minnesota has been outstanding for much of the season, but their three losses have been against teams that lie directly in their path to the Super Bowl – twice to the Lions and once to the Rams. The Vikings defense has been terrific, ranking as one of the top run defenses in the league and confusing opposing quarterbacks with their chaotic and aggressive blitz schemes but the offense has had plenty to do with it as well.
Vikings QB Sam Darnold has been one of the best storylines of this NFL season as his journey has taken him full circle from highly touted draft pick to giant bust to discarded backup to veteran stopgap to Pro Bowler and borderline MVP candidate. Darnold has finally made good on the promise that made him the #3 overall pick several years ago as head coach Kevin O’Connell has worked his magic and unlocked Darnold’s potential. There is no shortage of weapons for Darnold, highlighted by all-world WR Justin Jefferson. In last week’s loss to the Lions, Jefferson had very little production but the opportunities were there as Darnold missed him on several occasions where Jefferson had beaten his man including multiple times in the end zone. Jefferson is complemented by breakout second year WR Jordan Addison and veteran TE TJ Hockenson, who is rounding into form after missing the early part of the season. Veteran RB Aaron Jones has been solid all season and stayed available, but injuries seem to be mounting a bit as he has played under 60% of the snaps in the last two weeks while leaving the field nursing apparent injuries, and backup RB Cam Akers has looked solid in his limited work. Finally, the Vikings have benefitted from contributions from WR3 Jalen Nailor and their backup tight ends as players who are good enough to make defenses pay for giving Minnesota’s stars too much attention as O’Connell’s play calling has been terrific this season.
The Vikings rank 3rd in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE) as they have leaned on their weapons and continued their offensive approach despite this year’s QB change. Darnold ranks 10th in the NFL among QBs in intended air yards per pass attempt as he has consistently pushed the ball downfield. Last week the Lions exploited the fact that Darnold can still get flustered when faced with consistent pressure, as they forced him into his worst game of the season. Luckily for Darnold and the Vikings, the Rams rank 20th in the NFL in both blitz rate and QB pressure rate while the Lions ranked 2nd and 4th in those respective categories, which means that he should have much cleaner pockets this week. The Lions also play man coverage at the highest rate in the league, while the Rams rank 4th in the NFL in zone coverage rate. Most of Darnold’s best games this season have come against teams who play primarily zone coverage (GB, CHI, IND, ATL) which, along with the likely decrease in pressure he’s dealing with should give him every opportunity to bounce back from last week’s performance. Expect the backfield to still be involved, but Darnold and his elite pass catchers will be leaned on heavily in this one.
