GAME Overview ::
By MIKE JOHNSON >>
- This game is a rematch of a Week 1 game played between these two teams in Brazil, which the Eagles won, 34-29.
- These were two of the three most run-heavy teams in the NFL this season.
- Eagles QB Jalen Hurts is expected to return from a two-week absence from a concussion, while Packers QB Jordan Love should also be good to go after injuring his elbow in Week 18.
- Prior to Week 18, Green Bay’s only losses this season had been to the teams with the three best records in the NFC.
HOW GREEN BAY WILL TRY TO WIN ::
The Packers enter this season’s playoffs hoping to build off last season’s surprising playoff run, but they will have a bit of a tougher path to follow as they start out heading to Philadelphia to face an Eagles team who lost only one home game this season – way back in Week 2 against the Falcons on a last-second field goal while playing without A.J. Brown. Per the Elias Sports Bureau, the Packers are the second-youngest team to make the playoffs over the last 45 seasons behind only…last year’s Packers team. Green Bay has had a terrific season but has struggled to show they can beat higher-caliber opponents. Green Bay won 11 games this season, but only two of those games were against opponents who ended up making the playoffs – the Rams and Texans. A deeper look at those losses reveals that they beat the Rams by only five points despite the fact that they were missing Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, and several key members of their offensive line and secondary….while the Texans were missing offensive focal point Nico Collins and Green Bay needed a game-saving drive and buzzer-beating field goal to win that one by a score of 24-22. Green Bay has looked great at times this season, but in hindsight we can see that they have yet to prove they are capable of beating a high-caliber opponent at full strength.
Green Bay’s approach is generally very predictable, as they rank 30th in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE) and have leaned on RB Josh Jacobs to the tune of nearly 340 touches this season. In the first matchup between these teams, way back in Week 1, the Packers threw the ball at a relatively high rate (for them), with 34 Love pass attempts compared to only 20 running back carries in a game where they never trailed by more than one score and led for much of the game. As the season wore on and Jacobs grew into his bell-cow role, the Packers have leaned even more on the running game. That was most apparent in a Week 17 loss to the Vikings where Green Bay had only a 45% pass rate through three quarters despite trailing 27-10. The strangest thing about that approach is the fact that the Minnesota run defense has been so strong and it seemed evident coming in that the Packers would likely need to shift from their standard approach in order to have a chance. Hopefully head coach Matt LaFleur has learned from his mistakes, as this week Green Bay faces an elite Eagles defensive front that ranks No. 2 in both PFF run-defense grade and run-defense DVOA. If the Packers are going to have a chance, they will likely need to lean much more on Love early in the game than they have shown a willingness to do for most of this year.
Green Bay will be without WR Christian Watson, who tore his ACL in Week 18. This should leave Dontayvion Wicks and Romeo Doubs as the primary perimeter wide receivers, while slot man Jayden Reed will play his usual role and tight end Tucker Kraft looks to build on his breakout campaign. Reed had 171 total yards and two touchdowns in the first matchup between these teams, but he’s had a relatively disappointing sophomore season. He is someone who the Packers may look to get going, as this Eagles defense is also strong on the perimeter but has given up several big games to slot WRs this season including Olamide Zaccheaus and Adam Thielen within the last month. The Packers are unlikely to abandon the run, as it is just too much of who they are at this point in the season, but if they want to break through with a win against a quality opponent then they are going to have to throw the ball at something closer to a league-average rate rather than their usual approach.
