Game Overview ::
By Hilow >>
- The Steelers have some sort of illness rolling through the locker room. Both K Chris Boswell and DT Cameron Heyward missed practice Wednesday with illness.
- Ravens ruled out WR Zay Flowers (knee) after he suffered a knee injury in the team’s Week 18 win over the Browns.
- Ravens RB Justice Hill (concussion/illness) upgraded to full practice Wednesday after missing the final two games of the regular season.
- Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth saw his highest route participation rate (83.8%) and most targets of the season (11) in Week 18 against the Bengals.
- Since George Pickens’ injury in Week 13, Russell Wilson had a lowly 61.1% completion rate, 5.74 yards per attempt, just six touchdowns in five games, a 10.7% deep throw rate, and 0.41 fantasy points per dropback.
- While Zay Flowers’s absence is likely to return more congestion to the intermediate areas of the field, it is also likely to condense the target distribution heavily among Rashod Bateman, Mark Andrews, and Isaiah Likely.
How pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::
The Steelers really struggled to end the season, dropping each of their final four games of the regular season to the Eagles, Ravens, Chiefs, and Bengals. While all four of those losses were at the hands of potential playoff teams, the results were far from ideal. Even so, Pittsburgh finished the regular season with a 10-7 record and earned a trip to the postseason for the fourth time in the previous five seasons (missed the playoffs in 2022). The structure of this team remains largely the same as it has during that stretch, with a game plan built around their defense, a methodical approach on offense, and a goal of managing most games they are in. We saw that game plan in both matchups with the Ravens this season, winning the first in an 18-16 game at home and dropping the second in a 34-17 loss on the road. They managed to take a 9-7 lead into the half of that first game and trailed the Ravens 17-10 at the break in the second. All of that should highlight how we expect the Steelers to behave here, with an aim at shortening the game and “winning ugly” against one of the top offenses in the league. Their defense should be focused on containing Lamar Jackson and not allowing him to escape forward or off edge, instead keeping him confined to the pocket.
Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren continue to share the backfield load, typically split somewhere in the 65/35 to 55/45 range, depending on game flow. Harris is typically given more work in neutral-to-positive game environments, while Warren typically sees more work in negative game scripts. Cordarrelle Patterson continues to see a handful of snaps each week but is highly unlikely to return enough to be viable in a fantasy setting. The matchup on the ground against the Ravens is about as difficult as they come considering they have allowed just 1.66 yards before contact per attempt (fourth), 3.6 yards per carry (first), and 18.0 fantasy points per game (fifth) to opposing backfields this season, notably holding the combination of Harris and Warren to 90 yards on 21 carries in their second meeting and 104 yards on 27 carries in their first meeting. The sledding is expected to be tough here, with ultimate volume dependent on Pittsburgh’s ability to keep Lamar Jackson in check on the other side.
George Pickens absence from Week 14 to Week 16 really threw a wrench in this Pittsburgh aerial attack. From Week 14 on, Russell Wilson had a lowly 61.1% completion rate, 5.74 yards per attempt, just six touchdowns in five games, a 10.7% deep throw rate, and 0.41 fantasy points per dropback. Compare those to the 65.8% completion rate, 8.70 yards per attempt, 10 touchdowns, 15.0% deep throw rate, and 0.52 fantasy points per dropback from Week 7 to Week 13 after taking over under center, and it’s clear how much the passing offense struggled through Pickens injury and the two games after he came back to end the regular season. Mike Williams still has yet to become more than a package player in the offense after being acquired at the trade deadline, leaving Van Jefferson and Calvin Austin to serve as the primary “starters” alongside Pickens. Tight end Pat Freiermuth has been in a route at a modest 71.4% clip this season. The two final games of the regular season were the first games in which he saw more than a modest seven targets, seeing eight against the Chiefs in Week 17 (68.8% route participation) and 11 against the Bengals in Week 18 (83.8% route participation).
