Kickoff Sunday, Jan 9th 1:00pm Eastern

Bears (
20.5) at
Vikings (
24)

Over/Under 44.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Bears Run D
4th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per carry
Vikings Run O
27th DVOA/22nd Yards per carry
Bears Pass D
17th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per pass
Vikings Pass O
21st DVOA/17th Yards per pass
Vikings Run D
12th DVOA/6th Yards allowed per carry
Bears Run O
10th DVOA/6th Yards per carry
Vikings Pass D
10th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per pass
Bears Pass O
23rd DVOA/23rd Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>
  • This game means nothing for either team, but means a lot to both coaches who are trying to save their jobs.
  • Vikings games are highly game flow dependent.
  • This is an all or nothing DFS spot.
  • Dalvin Cook is the best floating play from this game.

How chicago Will Try To Win ::

The 6-10 Bears come into Week 18 having been eliminated from the playoffs for the past three weeks. Matt Nagy’s seat is on fire and riding a two-game meaningless winning streak is unlikely to save him. Nagy announced that Fields is expected to return as a full practice participant this week, which means he is healthy enough to start. The Bears want to play slow (23rd in situational neutral pace) but have been aggressive lately as Nagy has been more willing to let Fields throw. Nagy seems to know that his best chance at holding onto his job is showcasing Fields’ development.

The Vikings defense has been beatable through the air (16th in DVOA), and weak against the run (25th in DVOA), presenting as a mini-run funnel. That difference shouldn’t tilt the Bears away from playing a pass-balanced style designed to put up points in Nagy’s last chance to show the Bears brass why he deserves one more year. Fields threw 39 times in these team’s first meeting and it’s reasonable to expect a similar game plan.

How minnesota Will Try To Win ::

The 7-9 Vikings come into Week 18 at the tail end of another disappointing year. They were expected to compete with the Packers for the NFC North, but they failed to even be a threat for a wildcard playoff berth. The Vikings have talent on their roster but continue to underperform and have particularly disappointed on defense. Mike Zimmer is a defensive-minded coach that has a lot of skilled players on offense that should be a good combination but it hasn’t worked in Minnesota. 

The Vikings want to play at a moderate pace (17th situational neutral) but are willing to speed way up if they’re behind (4th in pace), which makes Vikings games highly susceptible to game flow. This week they get a Bears defense that has been respectable against the pass (10th in DVOA), but weak against the run (23rdin DVOA). This sets up well for how the Vikings prefer to attack. Expect them to slam Dalvin Cook and use the threat of run to set up downfield shots; the usual formula, in what is possibly Mike Zimmer’s last game as the Vikings head coach.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has a moderate total (45) which feels like a hedge between things playing out as a slow-paced division game with a lot of running, and the Bears taking a lead which will turn the Vikings into a fast-paced aggressive team. Neither side has anything to play for, but both coaches do, as they could easily be the first two head coaches released when the season ends. Expect both teams to play hard, with the most likely outcome being the Vikings riding their running game to a win.

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Tributaries ::

DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Alex88 >>

OVERVIEW

  • Tied for the third highest total of the week
  • CHI’s implied total of 19.5 is the 11th lowest
  • MIN’s implied total of 25 is the sixth highest
  • CHI’s final score the last six games: 16 // 22 // 30 // 9 // 25 // 29
  • Their opponents’: 14 // 33 // 45 // 17 // 24 // 3
  • MIN’s final score the last six games: 26 // 27 // 36 // 17 // 23 // 10
  • Their opponents’: 34 // 29 // 28 // 9 // 30 // 37
  • CHI averages 18.4 ppg (seventh fewest)
  • MIN’s defense allows 25.6 ppg (eighth most)
  • Their defense faces the third most plays per game (67)
  • Neither team has anything to play for 

CHI QB

  • Justin Fields was named the starter on Wednesday, but was then placed on the COVID list Thursday
  • As of Thursday night, no new starter has been named
  • Andy Dalton’s stat lines in his four full starts this year: 27/38:206:0:1 // 24/39:317:1:1 // 26/41:229:2:4 // 18/35:173:1:1
  • Nick Foles started in Week 16: 24/35:250:1:0
  • MIN ranks 28th in DK ppg allowed to QBs (20.5)
  • Notable opposing QB scores: Aaron Rodgers 20.32 // Jared Goff 21.94 // Cooper Rush 22.2 // Ben Roethlisberger 28.82 // Lamar Jackson 35.64 // Rodgers 36.5 // Kyler Murray 38.1

CHI Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Darnell Mooney 87.7% // Cole Kmet 84% // Damiere Byrd 55.2% // Allen Robinson 54.2% // Jimmy Graham 23.4%
  • Target share: Mooney 25.1% // Kmet 17.8% // Robinson 12.6% // Byrd 6.5% // Graham 4.3%
  • Among qualified WRs, Mooney ranks 18th in target share, 17th in air yard market share, and 18th in WOPR (per Koalaty Stats)
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts four times: 20.5 @ DET in Week 12 // 20.6 @ PIT in Week 9 // 21.5 vs. DET in Week 4 // 26.1 vs. CHI in Week 11
  • Robinson’s Week 18 DK salary is just $4,000
  • He’s yet to hit 12 DK pts this season
  • Byrd has scored 4x his Week 18 DK salary ($3,400) once: 15.6 @ GB in Week 14
  • MIN ranks 32nd in DK ppg allowed to WRs (44.6)
  • Twelve different WRs have scored 20+ DK pts vs. MIN

David Montgomery

  • Among qualified RBs, Montgomery ranks seventh in rush share, eighth in goal line share, eighth in target share, eighth in WOPR, and ninth in RBOPR
  • His 16.1 DK ppg ranks 14th
  • Week 18 DK salary of $6,800 is a season high
  • He’s scored 25+ DK pts twice: 25.6 vs. DET in Week 4 // 28.1 vs. ARI in Week 13
  • MIN ranks 23rd in DK ppg allowed to RBs (25.3)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: Najee Harris 25.4 // Joe Mixon 28 // Elijah Mitchell 30.8

Kirk Cousins

  • Ranks fifth in PFF passing grade
  • Among qualified QBs, ranks 12th in EPA per attempt
  • As a Viking, he averages just 14.61 DK ppg vs. CHI
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 18 DK salary ($6,100) six times: 24.2 @ DET in Week 12 (close enough) // 25.04 @ CIN in Week 1 // 25.26 @ ARI in Week 2 // 28.12 vs. SEA in Week 3 // 28.24 vs. GB in Week 11 // 31.52 @ CAR in Week 6
  • CHI ranks 14th in DK ppg allowed to QBs (18.4)
  • Notable opposing QB scores: Matthew Stafford 27.34 // Jimmy G 30.28 // Kyler Murray 30.82 // Aaron Rodgers 32.64

MIN Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Justin Jefferson 88.6% // Tyler Conklin 81.6% // KJ Osborn 67.2% // Dede Westbrook 18.8%
  • Target share: Jefferson 27.5% // Conklin 14.3% // Osborn 13.4% // Westbrook 2.6%
  • Among qualified WRs, Jefferson ranks third in target share, first in air yard market share, and third in WOPR
  • His 20.5 DK ppg ranks fourth
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 18 DK salary ($8,100) twice: 38.6 @ DET in Week 13 // 40.2 vs. GB in Week 11
  • Osborn has scored 20+ DK pts just once: 20.1 @ ARI in Week 2
  • Despite Adam Thielen missing Week 17, Westbrook saw just one target
  • He’s seen four or fewer in every game
  • CHI ranks 11th in DK ppg allowed to WRs (34.4)
  • Notable opposing WR scores: Allen Lazard 20.9 // Deebo Samuel 26.1 // Cooper Kupp 26.8 // Chris Godwin 28.1 // Mike Evans 31.6 // Davante Adams 37.1
  • Among qualified TEs, Conklin ranks 18th in target share, 22nd in air yard market share, and 21st in WOPR
  • His Week 18 DK salary of $4,200 is a season high
  • He’s scored 15+ DK pts twice: 16.1 @ LAC in Week 10 // 20 vs. SEA in Week 3
  • CHI ranks sixth in DK ppg allowed to TEs (9.1)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Mark Andrews 15.3 // Gerald Everett 16.8 // Pat Freiermuth 21.3

MIN RBs

  • Snap share: Dalvin Cook 53.2% // Alexander Mattison 32.8%
  • Target share: Cook 8.2% // Mattison 6.5%
  • Touches per game: Cook 22.3 // Mattison 10.7
  • With Cousins OUT and facing an early blowout, Cook was benched after just nine rushes in Week 17
  • As of Thursday night, there is no indication that the typical usage of the RBs will be different for a meaningless Week 18 game
  • Among qualified RBs, Cook ranks third in rush share, fourth in goal line share, 10th in target share, 13th in WOPR, and third in RBOPR
  • His 17.6 DK ppg ranks ninth
  • Cook’s Week 18 DK salary is $7,800
  • He’s scored 25+ DK pts twice: 25.3 @ CAR in Week 6 // 38.2 vs. PIT in Week 14
  • Mattison’s Week 18 DK salary is $6,900
  • He’s scored 25+ DK pts twice: 26.1 vs. SEA in Week 3 // 30.3 vs. DET in Week 5
  • CHI ranks 15th in DK ppg allowed to RBs (22.8)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: Devonta Freeman 20 // Aaron Jones 21 // Jones 21.5 // Rashaad Penny 22.5 // Elijah Mitchell 22.7 // Kareem Hunt 27.5