Kickoff Sunday, Jan 9th 4:25pm Eastern

Jets (
13) at

Bills (
29)

Over/Under 42.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Jets Run D
21st DVOA/29th Yards allowed per carry
Bills Run O
32nd DVOA/6th Yards per carry
Jets Pass D
32nd DVOA/30th Yards allowed per pass
Bills Pass O
4th DVOA/9th Yards per pass
Bills Run D
2nd DVOA/13th Yards allowed per carry
Jets Run O
18th DVOA/27th Yards per carry
Bills Pass D
2nd DVOA/1st Yards allowed per pass
Jets Pass O
15th DVOA/20th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>
  • The Bills need a win in order to clinch the AFC East and can get as high as the 2-seed depending on other outcomes.
  • The Jets offense has come alive to end the season, averaging 24.7 points per game over the last three weeks.
  • Both teams have shown high pass rates and tempo over the course of the season and recently.
  • These teams previously met in New York, with the Bills winning 45-17.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

The Jets had only scored 24 or more points in one Zach Wilson start this season prior to Week 15. Since then, they have hit that mark in all three of their games, including a game they should have won against a very good Tampa Bay defense. While this comparison may be a stretch, we don’t have to look far in this game to see a highly criticized first-round pick who struggled early in his rookie season before the light bulb came on to end the year – as Josh Allen’s second half to his rookie season certainly propelled him to the improvement we have seen since. Let me be clear, Wilson hasn’t been anything close to great recently, but he at least hasn’t kept the Jets from staying in games. Young players adjusting to the NFL take some time, and players can get better. This will be a game where Wilson will have to show a lot of improvement to keep the Jets competitive.

New York has the second-highest situation-neutral pass rate and plays at an above-average pace this season. Unfortunately, the Bills have one of the top pass defenses in the league and have destroyed many of the weaker teams they have played this season – including the Jets. New York is unlikely to significantly change their play calling or approach for the final game in the season, so that pass rate is something we should expect to stay consistent here unless they can somehow take a lead or the weather turns this game into a mess. The passing game should focus on screens and short-area passing to protect Wilson from the Bills pass rush and keep him from challenging PFF’s #2 graded coverage unit.

How buffalo Will Try To Win ::

Buffalo destroyed the Jets in their first meeting and should be able to have their way again here in a must-win game at home. The Bills have become a much more balanced team this season than we saw last year, running the ball at a 47% rate over the last three weeks. It is important to note, however, that two of those games were against a “run funnel” defense of the Panthers and the poor rushing defense of the Falcons in poor weather.

The Bills need a win and have advantages everywhere. They can attack in any manner that they want. While they have been run-heavy of late and during their first game with the Jets, the Bills are likely to have great efficiency both on the ground and through the air. In the Week 10 meeting with the Jets, Allen threw for 366 yards on just 28 pass attempts. The weather in Buffalo on Sunday looks clear but currently looks like it will have 15-20 mph winds throughout the game. While this may have a small effect on deep passing, Allen has a strong enough arm to overcome the slight weather issues. Also, with a victory appearing to be easily attainable through any mode of attack, it would make sense for the Bills to limit the number of hits Allen takes with the playoffs just a week away. This leads me to think the Bills may lean on their passing game more early in the game and use their running backs rather than Allen when they do decide to run. Last week against the Falcons, Allen ran the ball 15 times, including a lot of designed runs. I would be very surprised to see the Bills use him in that way again this week unless they are pressed in a close game late.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The Bills are extremely likely to take control of this game early on. The Bills are likely to be aggressive early in the game in an attempt to knock out their opponent early in the game and let them rest some key players for the last quarter or more of a game they are favored to win by three scores. The Bills are also likely to throw often in an effort to limit Allen’s hits on running plays which, combined with the high pass rate of the Jets, should result in a first half with high play volume and potentially high scoring (at least on the Bills side).

The Jets will attack in a more horizontal and short-area fashion early in this game but will progressively be forced to be more aggressive down the field. The Bills pass rush and secondary are likely to tee off on Zach Wilson early in the game, although if they smash early as expected, it would not be surprising to see some solid second-half production from the Jets passing game against Buffalo’s backups.

scenarios:
  • Buffalo must win to clinch the AFC East. 
  • If they lose, they can drop as low as the 6-seed.
  • If they win, they can jump as high as the 2-seed if the Bengals and/or Chiefs lose.
    • The Bills will know the results of those games prior to kickoff.
  • Both teams should be playing this game like a normal game, with the Jets trying to maintain momentum into the off-season.

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DFS+ Interpretation ::

By LexMiraglia10 >>

Josh Allen:

  • Allen has thrown for 225+ yds in 11/16 games, and all 6 of his games of 275+ yds have gone for 300+ yds
  • 10 of 16 QBs have passed for 250+ yds vs NYJ (4 over 300 yds)
  • Allen has 13 games of 2+ TDs, 8 games of 3+ TDs
  • Every QB since W4 has scored 2+ TDs vs NYJ except Lawrence
  • QB rushing vs NYJ: Teddy (24) // Tyrod (30) // Taysom (73:2) // Lawrence (37)
  • Allen has 8 rush TDs in every previous season of his career (6 so far in 2021)
  • Allen has 11 games in 2021 of 30+ rush yds (6 of 50+)
  • Allen went for 366:2:1 vs NYJ in W10 (BUF won 45-17)

BUF WRs:

  • Jets have allowed the 8th fewest WR DK pts/g thanks to the 7th fewest WR TDs allowed (12) & 5th fewest faced WR tg
  • WRs with 70+ yds vs NYJ: DJ Moore (80) // Patrick (98) // Higgins (97) // Diggs (162:1), Davis (105) // Hollins (72:1) // MJJ (74) // Grayson (81:1)
  • Diggs has 70+ yds in 7/16 games after reaching 70+ yds in 15/18 games in 2020
  • Diggs has five 20+ pt DK scores this year (21.4, 23.9, 33.2, 20.4, 21.5) after 10 in 18 games in 2020
  • Diggs had 25+ DK pts in 7 games last year
  • Diggs has 25+ DK pts in just 1 game this year
  • That game came against the Jets when he had 33.2 DK pts

Devin Singletary:

  • Singletary’s touches since W12: 16 // 10 // 11 // 23 // 18 // 24
  • Singletary’s yds in those games: 48 // 36 // 89 // 96:1 // 78:1 // 110:2
  • Singletary’s DK pts in those games: 5.8 // 3.6 // 14.9 // 16.6 // 18.8 // 26
  • Jets have allowed the most DK pts to RBs by wide margin
  • RBs with 80+ total yds vs NYJ: CMC (187) // Gordon (81:1) // Henry (177:1), McNichols (85) // CPatt (114) // Harris (113:2) // Mixon (91:2) // Taylor (200:2), Hines (108:1) // Gaskin (96:1) // Sanders (142), Gainwell (87:1) // AK (145:1) // Duke (127:2)
  • BUF RBs in first NYJ matchup: Singletary (49:1) // Breida (50:2) // Moss (27:1)

Zach Wilson:

  • Wilson’s only games of 20+ DK pts: 226:2:1, rush TD vs PHI // 102:1, 91:1 vs JAC
  • BUF ranks 2nd in def pass DVOA
  • BUF has allowed just 11 pass TDs to 19 INT
  • Only QBs over just 200 yds vs BUF: Tua (205), Heinicke (212), Tanny (216), Mahomes (272), Brady (363)
  • BUF intercepted Mike White 4 times in first matchup

NYJ WRs:

  • BUF has allowed the fewest WR DK pts/g (25.4)
  • BUF has allowed just five WR TDs, and 115.2 WR yds/g

Michael Carter:

  • Of BUF’s 14 RB rush TDs allowed, 10 of them came from Henry, Taylor, & Harris alone
  • RBs with 50+ yds vs BUF: Gibson (104:1) // Henry (156:3) // Gaskin (55) // Hyde (73) // Carter (82:1) // Taylor (204:1) // Harris (111:1), Stevenson (78) // Fournette (132:1) // Abdullah (55:1) // Harris (103:3) // Davis (57:1)
  • Carter vs BUF: 16:39:1, 4:43 (White was QB)
  • Carter receiving in Wilson games: 81 yds in 8 games
  • Carter receiving without Wilson: 244 yds in 5 games
  • Carter left concussed last week (Coleman also out) and Walter got 14 rush att
  • Rush att in two weeks before last week: Carter (24) // Coleman (22)