49ers (

21.5) at
Rams (

25)

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>

• The nature of the San Francisco offense hinges significantly on the health and availability of Jimmy Garoppolo. 
• These teams played earlier this season, with San Francisco leading wire-to-wire in a 31-10 victory.
• These teams have very different offensive approaches in terms of pace and play calling, but both are very effective.
• Both teams need a win to maximize their playoff situations, making this close to an actual playoff game.

How san francisco Will Try To Win ::

The big question for the 49ers this week surrounds the health of Jimmy Garoppolo, who has a torn tendon in his right thumb (his throwing hand). This, understandably, makes playing quarterback in the NFL very difficult. Throwing the ball becomes harder, but there is also the dynamic of taking snaps, ball handling on handoffs and fakes, and taking hits. Jimmy has been throwing in practice this week and reportedly looks pretty good, but there is a difference between a controlled environment and a live game when that thumb will take some hits early and often. If Garoppolo is not able to play, Trey Lance will start again. Lance has struggled twice this season but looked better in the second half last week against the Texans as he led the 49ers to a victory.

When evaluating San Francisco, the reality is that they will either be playing with a raw, athletic quarterback who has been inconsistent and underwhelming in his first two starts, or they will have a quarterback who was already a game manager that they will now have to take extra care to protect and preserve. Either scenario calls for a run-heavy game script, as the 49ers will try to slow the game the way their 28th ranked situation-neutral pace has done to opponents all season. In the first meeting of these teams, the 49ers ran the ball 44 times compared to only 19 pass attempts. While that tells one story, the reality is they were not very effective (averaging only 3.2 yards per carry on 37 running back attempts) and were only able to maintain that high run rate because of the big lead they built due to the Rams offensive struggles (which we will get to shortly). The Rams defense is no joke, ranking top-5 against both the run and the pass, and Aaron Donald can single-handedly ruin a game for an offense. The 49ers will definitely lean into their running game and perhaps would be most effective doing so with Lance under center to act as another threat to the defense with his legs. When the 49ers do throw the ball, they will likely look to find ways to get the ball in the hands of their elite playmakers (Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk), who can change a game in a blink with their ability to break tackles and outrun defenders. The method by which the 49ers attack through the air will change dramatically depending on who is under center, as Jimmy throws mostly underneath and over the middle of the field while Lance is able to make more throws to the perimeter and down the field.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

Los Angeles is a top-5 team in terms of both pass rate and pace of play. They have a division title and multiple home playoff games riding on this game, so I would expect them to lean into “what got them here” by continuing to play to their strengths. This is especially true against a 49ers team whose secondary has been ravaged by injuries and COVID recently. Four of San Francisco’s top five cornerbacks are currently on the COVID list, placed there on either Tuesday or Wednesday of this week. The only one left from those top five who are practicing this week is 34-year-old Josh Norman, who is PFF’s 82nd graded cornerback out of 87 players who have played at least 50% of the snaps this season. The 49ers also have one of their starting safeties on the COVID list and another starting safety battling a shoulder injury. This is not good news against a highly efficient Rams passing offense.

All season, the 49ers have been easier to throw the ball on than it has been to run against them. The 49ers also have the 2nd best run defense DVOA in the league due to a great front seven, and with the current state of the secondary, that difference should only grow in terms of “path of least resistance.” The Rams expect Cam Akers back just six months removed from tearing his Achilles, but he should only mix in for 10-15 snaps in his first game back. The 49ers will likely get several of their defensive backs off the COVID list prior to Sunday, but even in that case, they will not have practiced all week. We have seen several times in the past few weeks that players returning from the COVID list often struggle, especially without practice time to get their conditioning back. The sharp thing for the Rams to do would be to take an extremely pass-heavy attack and play at a blistering pace, as playing defensive back in the NFL is not for the faint of heart, and high pass volume and pace would wear those players down very quickly.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The first time these teams played, Matthew Stafford had a couple of early turnovers, and the 49ers took an early lead that allowed them to control the pace of the game and make Los Angeles one-dimensional. That was a Monday night game in San Francisco when the Rams offense was dealing with a lot of unexpected changes – they had just lost Robert Woods to a torn ACL that week in practice, and Odell Beckham Jr. was signed three days before the game. The Rams were also heading into their bye week and playing on the road. This week, the Rams enter the game on a five-game winning streak, are at home, and have a division title on the line.

The likeliest game flow here is a close game that ultimately the Rams are slightly more likely to control. Their passing game should be more effective than it was the first time these teams met, and with so much riding on the game and in a home environment, I would expect that the Rams won’t hand the 49ers early control again. The 49ers personnel issues in the secondary continue to be an issue, and they will likely struggle to hold the Rams down because of this, while the 49ers offense has a lot of questions at the most important position right now, making it difficult to expect a high level of offensive output from them. If the Rams can take control, I would expect much more pace and scoring from this game than we saw in the first meeting, which combined for 41 total points and 117 total plays (well below league average), especially with so much on the line.

scenarios:

• Los Angeles must win to secure a division title and the 2-seed.
• San Francisco must win to secure a playoff spot.
• If San Francisco loses, they would still have a chance to get in the playoffs if New Orleans were to lose.
• The only scenario for either team’s motivations to change mid-game would be if Atlanta were to jump out and dominate the Saints, making the game meaningless for San Francisco. This is an unlikely outcome in that game, meaning we should expect both teams to give everything they have.

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DFS+ Interpretation ::