Week 18 Angles Email
Happy Thursday!
New members: Every Thursday morning, we send out the Angles email — in which we take a critical, “overview” look at the slate ahead.
In This Week’s Angles Email…
We’ll be providing a snapshot breakdown of the playoff situation, potential motivation, and macro setup for all 26 teams on the Week 18 Main Slate.
We also have some awesome end-of-season deals that you’ll find at the bottom of this week’s Angles Email(!).
The Lay Of The Land ::
Week: 18
Total Main Slate Games: 13
Slate Overview:
The story stretches back to Peyton Manning, and to his Colts teams that often locked up the number one seed in the AFC before the end of the season. Those teams were trendsetters offensively, but they were also trendsetters in becoming first team to consistently use that final week of the season as if it were an extra bye. It was a big, seemingly-annual story at the time, as most other coaches “played to win,” even if their playoff seeding was settled (perhaps resting injured players, or taking players out early if the game was out of hand, but otherwise treating Week 17 like any other week), while the Colts ‘tarnished the competitive nature of the sport’ by resting their key players. There was a certain level of satisfaction among other fanbases when the Colts would come out rusty in the Divisional round, and the years when they lost that first playoff game as the number one seed were practically national holidays. ‘The Colts lost momentum. Two weeks without football is too much.’ Etc., etc.
Since that time, a couple key things have happened.
Firstly, it has become incredibly rare for season-long leagues to stretch into the final week of the regular season…
And secondly, more and more teams have found value in following the Colts’ example.
Which brings us to the present :: Week 18, 2021. Some teams have playoff seeding set. A lot of teams have nothing to play for. And each team will handle this week a little bit differently.
In this week’s NFL Edge, we’ll dive deeper into what each individual game looks like; but as has become tradition for us at OWS :: we’ll use this week’s Angles Email to provide an overview, snapshot look at what we might be able to expect from each team on this week’s Main Slate.
Packers at Lions
The setup :: The Packers have the number one seed in the NFC locked up. The Lions have nothing to play for…but that has been the case nearly all season.
What to (potentially) expect :: Matt LaFleur has cryptically said the Packers will play to win (over the last few seasons, this has become coachspeak for, “We won’t play starters the whole game, but I don’t want to come out and say that”), but Davante Adams has said he doesn’t envision playing the entire game. It is “likelier than not” (I would go so far as to say, “far likelier than not”) that the Packers play their key starters for limited snaps. We should expect all healthy Lions to play, and to play with the same level of intensity they have been playing with all season.
Colts at Jaguars
The setup :: The Colts need a win in order to take care of business for their playoff spot. The Jags, of course, have nothing to play for.
What to (potentially) expect :: Expect the Colts to be full-throttle in this one, only resting starters if the game is fully and irrevocably in hand (i.e., same as would be the case on any week earlier in the season). The Jags will continue to play what passes for “their best.” This is their Super Bowl, so to speak…but it’s a participation-prize Super Bowl for a not-very-good team.
Washington Football Team at Giants
The setup :: Neither team has anything to play for (duh).
What to (potentially) expect :: Neither team has anything to play for, but that shouldn’t change the approach for either squad. We may see some banged-up players inactive, but each team should be expected to treat this week like any other week.
Bears at Vikings
The setup :: Neither team has anything to play for, and each coach is likely coaching his last game for his respective team.
What to (potentially) expect :: Matt Nagy made the bold move this year of refusing to build his offense around the strengths and weaknesses of his mobile rookie quarterback, which should finally put an end to his reign of terror in Chicago. Mike Zimmer, meanwhile, entered Year Eight as the head coach of the Vikings essentially placing a bet on himself as a superior defensive mind, believing that the “offense compliments defense” structure he prefers could pay off with an overhauled unit on his side of the ball. In my opinion, it’s a tough situation for Vikings fans, as the grass is not always greener on the other side. Zimmer could pretty easily be placed in the top-50% of NFL head coaches; and while he was never going to be a juggernaut…well, who is? There are only eight active NFL head coaches who have won a Super Bowl as the boss of their team…and only one active head coach has won more than one Super Bowl ::
Bill Belichick — 6
Bruce Arians — 1
Andy Reid — 1
Pete Carroll — 1
John Harbaugh — 1
Mike McCarthy — 1
Sean Payton — 1
Mike Tomlin — 1
Zimmer proved in the past that he can keep his team in the mix in the playoffs; and from a standpoint of parity/variance, that’s really all it takes. If you’re good enough to keep your team in the mix, you’re good enough for everything to break your way one year.
That said, Zimmer has plenty of flaws (the most glaring may be his propensity to blame players and assistant coaches for anything that goes wrong; there’s a guy on that list, above, who has more Super Bowl wins than the others, and who always does the opposite :: taking the blame onto himself; interesting strategy Zimmer chooses to employ there), and it seems the time has finally come for the Vikings to try something different. Hey, who knows. Maybe they’ll stumble onto super-green grass…
Anyhow :: expect each team to consider resting severely-banged-up players (i.e., making them inactive), but players who are active should be played in their normal manner, in a game each team will be trying to win.
Titans at Texans
The setup :: The Titans need to win this game in order to lock up the immensely valuable One Seed. The Texans, of course, have nothing to play for.
What to (potentially) expect :: The Titans will be all-in on trying to win this game. They are one of the least imposing “number one seeds” in recent memory, but if they have Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown, Mike Vrabel, and two games at home, they could be a legitimate contender when it’s all said and done. This game is the key that unlocks the extra week of rest for Derrick Henry and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Texans, meanwhile, appear to have played David Culley and Davis Mills into another season at the center of the rebuild, and will be doing everything they can to spoil the Titans season.
Steelers at Ravens
The setup :: Technically, each team can still make the playoffs.
What to (potentially) expect :: Each team needs a lot of help, but this game has been placed in the early time slot (the NFL, for all its flaws on the “league office” end, is excellent at setting up Week 18 to maximize the product, with division matchups across the board each year, and with games scheduled in such a way that “teams who could be waiting on news from other games” won’t have the luxury of waiting on that news), which means we can fully expect both teams to be playing all healthy players, and to be playing with “the win” in mind.
Bengals at Browns
The setup :: The Bengals can, theoretically, improve their playoff seeding. The Browns have nothing to play for.
What to (potentially) expect :: The Bengals can improve their playoff seeding (in fact, they can climb as high as the One Seed if A) they win, B) the Titans AND Chiefs lose, and C) one of two additional things goes their way), but the statistical improbability of the Bengals climbing materially higher in the standings should have them treating this week like something of a bye week. Joe Burrow (knee) has already said he does not expect to play, and Zac Taylor (when asked) said Ja’Marr Chase “potentially” could play. Vegas has given the Bengals an implied team total of only 16.0. The Browns, meanwhile, will be starting Case Keenum (Mayfield will finally give his mutilated left shoulder a breather), and could look to take things easy on key, banged-up players, but they should otherwise be approaching this as an opportunity to finish a disappointing, turmoil-filled season on a strong note.
Panthers at Buccaneers
The setup :: The Bucs have something to play for (below). The Panthers do not (duh).
What to (potentially) expect :: While the One Seed still comes with the only bye, the Two Seed comes with home games for the first two rounds — a decidedly meaningful advantage in full stadiums. The Bucs can earn the Two Seed with a win and a Rams loss (to the 49ers, in a game the 49ers need to win in order to make the playoffs), which should have the Bucs treating this like any other week. The Panthers, of course, have been out of the running for multiple weeks, so we shouldn’t expect anything different from them here.
Patriots at Dolphins
The setup :: The Patriots are locked into the playoffs, but they still have a shot at the division title and a home game in the first round. The Dolphins are eliminated from the playoffs, but will be looking to spoil the Patriots season (as they’ve done multiple times in Miami on the last week of the season over the last couple decades), and to finish an encouraging season on a high note.
What to (potentially) expect :: There is a theoretical chance the Patriots will start pulling starters in the fourth quarter if the Bills are annihilating the Jets (the Pats need the Bills to lose if they want to win the division), but given that they never operated this way in the Brady years, it would be surprising if they started doing so now. The Patriots are likeliest to play this game down to the wire. The Dolphins are likeliest to do the same.
Saints at Falcons
The setup :: The Saints make the playoffs with a win and some help. The Falcons have nothing to play for, but should still be playing hard, with “momentum.”
What to (potentially) expect :: The only way the Saints are pulling starters (outside of a blowout win): If the 49ers are beating the Rams by so much, it’s obvious there is no mathematical way the Rams can come back. In other words :: Saints aren’t resting starters, outside of a blowout win. The Falcons, meanwhile, rank near the bottom of the league in pretty much every category, and nevertheless managed to stay in the playoff hunt deep into the season. They should be looking to finish the season strong.
Jets at Bills
The setup :: The Bills win the division with a win. The Jets have nothing to play for.
What to (potentially) expect :: The Bills will be all-in on trying to win this one, and Vegas has given them an implied team total of 28.5. The Jets will still be playing with all-out effort (for whatever that’s worth), as they haven’t let up in the “effort” department all season.
49ers at Rams
The setup :: The 49ers need a win in order to squeeze into the playoffs (they also get in with a Saints loss to the Falcons, but these games will be taking place at the same time, and if the Falcons are winning, they’re almost certainly not winning in a mega-blowout). The Rams need to win in order to lock up the Two Seed, and could fall from “home field the first two rounds” to “no home games at all” with a loss.
What to (potentially) expect :: This is one of the most obvious spots on the slate. Both teams are playing this one as if it’s a playoff game.
Seahawks at Cardinals
The setup :: The Cardinals are in the playoffs, but they need a win and a Rams loss to lock up the division. The Seahawks have nothing to play for, but this is nothing new.
What to (potentially) expect :: Expect both teams to approach this one as if it’s any other week — with the Cardinals, in particular, approaching this as a borderline-playoff game. The Seahawks will be looking to spoil their division rival’s season.
In Conclusion ::
Be sure to read the NFL Edge for deeper thoughts on how each team will try to win, but this gives you a good sense of where teams are from a macro perspective, and what we can expect as a “starting point” for most teams on the slate.
Week 18 Specials ::
1. OWS For Life
A few weeks ago, we created 200 “OWS For Life” membership levels, and made them available to Inner Circle members. This week, we’re opening the “OWS For Life” membership level to the entire OWS Fam.
How this works:
1. You buy OWS For Life.
2. We cancel your OWS Annual or Inner Circle membership (if applicable)
3. You never pay a dollar for OWS NFL content again
Current price of OWS Annual for new members: $129
Current price of Inner Circle for new members: $179
Current (limited) price of OWS For Life: $399
#math
2. Lock In Your OWS Price For Life
If you joined OWS Free (and dabbled in OWS Week) this season, a heads up :: We have always allowed OWS members to lock in their entry price for life (so that their original subscription price is the price they always pay), and as such, I wanted to remind you that we have one or two price bumps to OWS Annual and Inner Circle coming this next season. If you want to lock in the current price ($129 OWS Annual // $179 Inner Circle), you can find that on the OWS Join Page. (Though…math-wise…OWS For Life would probably be the play, if you think you’ll still be into DFS two or three years from now.)
3. 20% Off All Marketplace
Through the end of the playoffs, we’re taking 20% off all Marketplace courses(!!!).
Code :: OWSFAM20
With that, we’ll call a wrap on this week’s Angles email. I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend.
-JM
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