Slate Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• Running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire and backup (but currently starting) right tackle Lucas Niang has yet to practice this week (as of Wednesday), while there are currently no Kansas City players on the league’s COVID list. (UPDATE: Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been ruled OUT)
• The Broncos will start Drew Lock at quarterback to end their season, as Teddy Bridgewater was placed on IR with his concussion. Joining Teddy B as OUT for the Broncos will be guard Dalton Risner and safety Kareem Jackson. Punter Sam Martin, kicker Brandon McManus, and tackle Calvin Anderson are on the league’s COVID list.
• The Cowboys enter Week 18 relatively healthy, but they will be without starting perimeter wide receiver Michael Gallup after he suffered a season-ending torn ACL last week. Additionally, linebacker Micah Parsons hit the league’s COVID list on Wednesday and will miss this game. (UPDATE: tackle Tyron Smith and cornerback Anthony Brown were added to the COVID list on Thursday)
• The Eagles have 12 players currently on the league’s COVID list, most notably running backs Jordan Howard and Boston Scott, tight ends Dallas Goedert and Jack Stoll, center Jason Kelce, defensive tackle Fletcher Cox, and cornerback Avonte Maddox. Additionally, guard Landon Dickerson, tackle Lane Johnson, and running back Miles Sanders have yet to practice this week with various ailments.

How Kansas City Will Try To Win ::

The Chiefs have been fairly consistent this season as far as offensive play calling goes, ranking towards the top of the league in overall pass rate (fourth), situation-neutral pass rate (fourth), overall pass rate over the previous month of play (18^th), and situation-neutral pass rate over the previous month of play (first). They also continue to be the most efficient offense in the league, ranking first in drive success rate, first in plays per drive, first in yards per drive, first in points per drive, and second in time of possession per drive. Because their offense hasn’t hit the deep areas of the field at the same high success rate as we’ve grown accustomed to, they have resorted to more short area early-down passing and zone run-blocking concepts designed to generate second-and-third-and-manageable situations. This offensive scheme change has led to increased time of possession (30:45 per game, on average) and an elite third-down conversion rate (first in the league). The main knock against the Chiefs offense this season has been turnovers, as the team comes into Week 18 with the second most fumbles per drive and 13^th most interceptions per drive. Finally, the COVID issues that plagued the Chiefs over the previous three weeks are seemingly in the rearview mirror, as Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce both returned to their standard snap rate roles in Week 17.

The run game has a few variables at play this week, with Clyde Edwards-Helaire still not practicing and fill-in starting right tackle Lucas Niang also yet to practice this week after sustaining a knee injury in his start in Week 17 (UPDATE: Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been ruled OUT). Left tackle Orlando Brown returned to a full practice on Wednesday and should be good to go this weekend. With CEH out of the lineup last week, Darrel Williams commanded a hefty 80% snap rate en route to 17 running back opportunities, 107 total yards, and two touchdowns. I would expect more of the same this week should CEH miss again (appears likely at this point). Derrick Gore and Jerick McKinnon backed Williams up last week in extremely modest roles (13% snap rate for Gore and 8% snap rate for McKinnon). The matchup on the ground yields a borderline elite 4.54 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Broncos defense allowing 22.0 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (10^th-fewest in the league).

The Chiefs have continued to utilize Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce in near every-down roles while rotating all of Demarcus Robinson, Mecole Hardman, Byron Pringle, and Josh Gordon through as situational pass-catchers. Tight ends Blake Bell and Noah Gray operate in modest roles as either situational tight ends or primary blockers. The Broncos have been extremely effective at slowing down their opposition through the air this season, allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers and the third-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. Although there isn’t a true “weakness” of Denver’s pass defense, they are most vulnerable to deep passing, having forced the fourth-deepest aDOT in the league. That has also come with the fourth-lowest completion rate allowed (60.62%), meaning the deeper aDOT faced is by design in an attempt to force teams into lower probability passing.

How Denver Will Try to win ::

The Broncos rank towards the bottom of the pack in overall pass rates this season at 56%, a rate value that hardly changed over the past two weeks. Why is that important? Well, Weeks 15 and 16 were two games without Teddy Bridgewater, one in which the Broncos played tightly with the Raiders and one where they were blown out by the Chargers. In those two games, Drew Lock attempted just 22 and 25 pass attempts, while the combination of Melvin Gordon III and Javonte Williams combined for 14 and 24 rush attempts (only 42 and 57 offensive plays). Because of the way this Broncos team is built, with an extremely slow pace of play, high rush rates, and a defense that ranks third in the league in points allowed per game, Denver has seen a wild range of offensive plays run throughout the season, and there have been very few instances where their low pass rates have increased, meaning total pass volume is frequently a reflection of the total number of offensive plays run and not a change in game calling. This is important to understand in a game against the Chiefs, one in which they do not have anything to play for.

Here is the split in snap rates between Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon III, respectively, over the previous four games: 49%/50%, 59%/41%, 52%/55%, 50%/50%. Williams has seen running back opportunity counts of 17, 19, nine, and 15 over that time, while Gordon has seen running back opportunity counts of 24, 16, eight, and 14 over the same timeframe. This backfield should very much continue to be regarded as a true timeshare outside of the variance associated with us not knowing how the team will handle personnel decisions in a game with no meaning. As in, there is a possibility that the team gives Gordon increased run because his contract expires at the end of the season, there is a possibility we see Williams see increased run as the running back of the future for the Broncos, and there is a possibility we see the two continue to split work evenly in Week 18. The matchup on the ground yields a borderline elite 4.465 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Chiefs defense allowing 24.1 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields.

Both Tim Patrick and Jerry Jeudy missed last week’s game on the COVID list and both have been activated and should be good to go this week. In last week’s game, tight end Noah Fant took advantage of the thinned-out pass-catching corps, putting up his second-most fantasy points and yardage of the season. With Jeudy and Patrick both back, expect a return to a spread passing offense amongst all of Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, Noah Fant, Albert Okwuegbunam, and the running backs. The Chiefs have really come on over the second half of the season on defense, having allowed 10 points or fewer in five of their previous eight contests. Of note, all five of those games were played at home. But the bigger picture here is that the communication issues, coverage issues, and in-game lapses that we were seeing from the Chiefs early in the season have all but dried up, and we should return to regarding the Chiefs as one of the better “prevent” defenses in the league. The Chiefs have forced the seventh-shallowest defensive aDOT this season, but have really struggled with tackling after the catch, surrendering the third-most yards after the catch.

Likeliest Game flow ::

It is likeliest we see the Chiefs jump out to an early lead, but what happens after that carries a wide range of potential outcomes. We’ve seen the Chiefs take their foot off the proverbial gas in the second half of games this season, a trend that has not been fully realized by the field. This should allow the Broncos the opportunity to continue a ground-heavy approach for deeper into the game, putting a relative cap on the fantasy utility from each side (I say “relatively” because this is only a two-game slate). I would expect this game to land short of each respective team’s combined offensive plays per game number (66.3 for the Chiefs and 61.4 for the Broncos) and there is a legitimate concern that the heavy zone defense from the Broncos mutes the overall fantasy upside of this game as a whole. Furthering the overall “meh” feeling from this game environment is the very clear run-filtering biases exhibited by both defenses.

Slate Scenarios ::

• The Chiefs need a win and a loss by Tennessee (at Houston) to secure the one-seed in the AFC; they could also fall as far as the five-seed should they lose and the Bengals (head-to-head record), Bills (head-to-head record), and Patriots (better conference record) win. Anything from the one to five-seed is on the table. Playing in the first game of Week 18, we can expect maximum effort from the Chiefs here.
• The Broncos have been eliminated from the playoffs and currently occupy the 13-seed in the AFC with a record of 7-9, womp womp.
• The Cowboys can finish anywhere from the two-seed to the four-seed, with most scenarios leaving them in the four-seed. They would require a win plus a loss from the Rams (home versus the 49ers) in order to jump into the two or three-seed. It remains to be seen what their level of effort will be, but we have to think they come out all systems go considering the 49ers need a win to secure their own playoff berth and the Cowboys play on Saturday.
• The Eagles are locked into either the six-seed or seven-seed in the NFC, with either a win at home versus Dallas or a Saints win in Atlanta securing the six-seed. Either way, we know (and they know) they’ll either be traveling to Los Angeles, Tampa Bay, Dallas, or Arizona in the Wildcard Round. Furthermore, the multitude of injuries and COVID issues place the Eagles in a possible short-handed situation.

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Slate Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• Running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire and backup (but currently starting) right tackle Lucas Niang has yet to practice this week (as of Wednesday), while there are currently no Kansas City players on the league’s COVID list. (UPDATE: Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been ruled OUT)
• The Broncos will start Drew Lock at quarterback to end their season, as Teddy Bridgewater was placed on IR with his concussion. Joining Teddy B as OUT for the Broncos will be guard Dalton Risner and safety Kareem Jackson. Punter Sam Martin, kicker Brandon McManus, and tackle Calvin Anderson are on the league’s COVID list.
• The Cowboys enter Week 18 relatively healthy, but they will be without starting perimeter wide receiver Michael Gallup after he suffered a season-ending torn ACL last week. Additionally, linebacker Micah Parsons hit the league’s COVID list on Wednesday and will miss this game. (UPDATE: tackle Tyron Smith and cornerback Anthony Brown were added to the COVID list on Thursday)
• The Eagles have 12 players currently on the league’s COVID list, most notably running backs Jordan Howard and Boston Scott, tight ends Dallas Goedert and Jack Stoll, center Jason Kelce, defensive tackle Fletcher Cox, and cornerback Avonte Maddox. Additionally, guard Landon Dickerson, tackle Lane Johnson, and running back Miles Sanders have yet to practice this week with various ailments.

How Dallas Will Try To Win ::

The Cowboys rank towards the top of the league in situation-neutral pass rate over the previous month of play (eighth) and overall pass rate over the previous month of play (10^th-ranked 60%). The biggest change to how we should expect the Cowboys to approach the coming games is the season-ending injury to Michael Gallup, who suffered a torn ACL in the first half of Week 17. That’s a relatively massive change for the expected alignments of the primary pass-catchers because of Cedrick Wilson and his hefty slot snap rate (82%). Since Wilson has been the primary fill-in for Gallup this season, and because he plays such a heavy slot snap rate, we should expect CeeDee Lamb to be bumped to the perimeter at a higher rate. What has been most interesting about the shift back to a more pass-balanced approach on offense over the second half of the season is the fact that it appears to have been a dedicated effort to change the identity of this team back to a pass-heavy emphasis, as Dak Prescott comes into this game with seven straight weeks of 37 or more pass attempts (and that includes 37, 39, and 40 pass attempts in convincing wins over the Giants, Washington, and the Saints during that stretch). The final note for the Cowboys involves their playoff situation, with every single playoff scenario except two precise outcomes leaving them with the four-seed in the NFC. This could influence their personnel decisions to some extent. 

The run game for the Cowboys continues to be a “1A/1B” situation, with last week serving as the first game in six weeks that lead back Ezekiel Elliott saw more than a 64% snap rate (70%). During that time, he has not eclipsed a modest 20 running back opportunities (in fact, he hasn’t gone over 20 running back opportunities since Week 8), with the team instead electing to involve Tony Pollard at a greater frequency in games they are able to run the football more. This also appears to be a concerted effort and would be unlikely to change this week. So, while we can be fairly certain Zeke won’t see more than 20 running back opportunities here, there are legitimate paths to Tony Pollard being more involved (a couple of different “outs” there, as both positive game flow and the team’s personnel decisions likely influencing Pollard’s snap rate and opportunity share). The matchup on the ground yields a borderline elite 4.525 net-adjusted line yards metric against an Eagles defense allowing 25.2 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields.

As covered above, the biggest story for the Cowboys passing offense this week will be the absence of Michael Gallup. We’re likely to see CeeDee Lamb shifted to a heavier perimeter snap rate, leaving the slot mostly to Cedrick Wilson. We also have the curious case of Amari Cooper and his interview antics, who has recently stated he has all the tools and talent to lead the league in major receiving categories as long as his team supported him with heavier targets. In the two games since his first spout off, Amari has commanded 18 total targets, his heaviest two-game stretch of targets since Week 6 and 8. The last time Gallup missed time (Week 2 to Week 9), Lamb and Cooper each had only one game of double-digit targets, so there isn’t a ton on paper separating the two here (for comparison’s sake, Lamb and tight end Dalton Schultz each saw four games of seven or more targets during that stretch, while Cooper saw seven or more targets only twice during that same span). Finally, tight end Blake Jarwin saw his 21-day practice window opened in his bid to return from IR. The Eagles have forced the shallowest aDOT in the league, have allowed the third-highest completion rate against, and rank in the middle of the pack in YAC per reception allowed. That theoretically plays into the games of Cedrick Wilson and the tight ends more than the more downfield roles of Cooper and Lamb.

How PhilaDelphia Will Try to win ::

A large piece of the “how Philadelphia will try to win” puzzle depends on who they have available come game day, as they are dealing with a dangerous combination of little left to play for, a COVID outbreak, and multiple injury issues. Two members of their offensive line have yet to practice this week, Miles Sanders has yet to practice this week, and 12 players currently reside on the league’s COVID list. Additionally, the Eagles have locked up a playoff berth and will finish the season in either the sixth or seventh spot in the NFC. Knowing they will be playing on the road in the Wildcard Round regardless of the outcome of all games this weekend could influence their decision-making process amidst no less than 15 players currently either injured or dealing with COVID. Reports from beat writers urge that the team is likely to rest “key guys” on Saturday. What shouldn’t change is the team’s identity, which has grown into one of the heaviest rush rate teams in the league (first in overall rush rate on the season at 52%, second in overall rush rate over the previous month of play at 55%, and 10^th in situation-neutral rush rate over the previous four weeks at 56%. We know this team would like to run the football, but the multiple COVID cases and injuries in the backfield could force their hand here.

The backfield is a veritable mess currently, with Miles Sanders ruled out with his hand injury and Boston Scott and Jordan Howard on the COVID list (placed there on Monday, meaning they have a chance to suit up this weekend assuming they clear the updated protocols). As things currently stand, rookie Kenneth Gainwell, recently-signed practice squad member Kerryon Johnson, and practice squad member Jason Huntley are the only healthy running backs in the organization. Should both Howard and Scott miss, I would tentatively expect both practice squad backs to be elevated to the active roster for Saturday, with Gainwell likely stepping into the lion’s share of the backfield work for the Eagles. Should both Howard and Scott make it back, it is likely this backfield will look much more familiar. Last week, Scott led the way with a 52% snap rate, followed by Howard at 34%, and Gainwell at 13%. The matchup on the ground yields a healthy 4.475 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Dallas defense allowing only 20.2 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (third-fewest in the league).

The Eagles pass game has been a case of “haves and have-nots” for the better part of the season, with only rookie DeVonta Smith and tight end Dallas Goedert operating in near every-down roles. Quez Watkins was typically amongst that group but has played 51% of the offensive snaps or fewer in two of the previous three weeks since Philadelphia’s Week 14 bye. Further complicating things is the presence of both Goedert and backup tight end Jack Stoll on the COVID list, which is a big deal for an offense that has increased their 12-personnel usage rates over the last three games. Both Goedert and Stoll were placed on the list on Monday, meaning they have a chance to return in time for Saturday’s game. And all that doesn’t even take potential personnel decisions into account. The other wide receivers in play are Jalen Reagor, Greg Ward, and JJ Arcega-Whiteside, each of whom has maintained modest, situational roles in the offense. Basically, there is no shortage of unknowns surrounding the Eagles passing game this week.

Likeliest Game flow ::

Because of all the variance associated with the unknowns surrounding the Eagles this weekend, we have to view this game through the lens of weighted potential outcomes as opposed to the likeliest outcomes. The phrase “weighted potential outcomes” is used to describe the process of leveraging expected ownership versus individual outcome probabilities to generate organic leverage where possible. This means the most optimal way to approach this spot is to build players into lineups that tell very distinct stories with respect to possible game flows, how each coaching staff is likeliest to react to those individual game flows (personnel snap rates, rush-pass rates, game flow decisions, game management decisions, etc), and who would benefit the most from those in-game decisions. We’ll cover a few of the most likely situations and the likeliest beneficiaries in the combined DFS+ section below.

Slate Scenarios ::

• The Chiefs need a win and a loss by Tennessee (at Houston) to secure the one-seed in the AFC; they could also fall as far as the five-seed should they lose and the Bengals (head-to-head record), Bills (head-to-head record), and Patriots (better conference record) win. Anything from the one to five-seed is on the table. Playing in the first game of Week 18, we can expect maximum effort from the Chiefs here.
• The Broncos have been eliminated from the playoffs and currently occupy the 13-seed in the AFC with a record of 7-9, womp womp.
• The Cowboys can finish anywhere from the two-seed to the four-seed, with most scenarios leaving them in the four-seed. They would require a win plus a loss from the Rams (home versus the 49ers) in order to jump into the two or three-seed. It remains to be seen what their level of effort will be, but we have to think they come out all systems go considering the 49ers need a win to secure their own playoff berth and the Cowboys play on Saturday.
• The Eagles are locked into either the six-seed or seven-seed in the NFC, with either a win at home versus Dallas or a Saints win in Atlanta securing the six-seed. Either way, we know (and they know) they’ll either be traveling to Los Angeles, Tampa Bay, Dallas, or Arizona in the Wildcard Round. Furthermore, the multitude of injuries and COVID issues place the Eagles in a possible short-handed situation.

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• Guard/tackle Billy Turner and cornerback Jaire Alexander are the only players on the league’s COVID list for the Packers; tackle David Bakhtiari started the week with a limited showing before being downgraded to a “DNP” on Thursday as he attempts to return from an extended absence, while defensive end Keke Kingsley has yet to practice this week.
• Tackles Taylor Decker and Penie Sewell are joined by linebacker Austin Bryant on the league’s COVID list; fullback Jason Cabinda is the only player yet to practice this week for the Lions.
• Although the Packers have secured the number one seed in the NFC, any players they completely rest would go a full three weeks between their Week 17 game and the Divisional Round.

How green bay Will Try To Win ::

The Packers don’t necessarily care as much about winning as they do about making it through this game healthy while getting some live game repetitions along the way. Why is that the case? Since they have the one-seed locked up, the main decision for the Packers this week is whether or not to rest their starters in a meaningless game. That said, any starters that fully rest would go a full three weeks between live NFL action, as they would have last played in Week 17 and wouldn’t until their Divisional Round game. This puts head coach Matt LaFleur in an interesting spot, as he has to play the risk-reward game in order to come to the decision he feels is the best for his team. Although we don’t know for sure (at least not right now) what his final decision will be, the situation that makes the most sense is to get his starters some live game reps before pulling them in the second half. That will be my assumption for the remainder of this write-up. We know the Packers are going to play slow, we know they are going to remain balanced as far as play-calling goes, and we know they should carry top-end efficiency for as long as the starters are in. The matchup with the Lions presents a situation that they should be able to beat anywhere on the field.

Running back Aaron Jones has had his practice reps managed since returning from his missed game with a knee injury. His high in running back opportunities since returning to the lineup has been just 18 opportunities, and I wouldn’t expect more than a handful here. Some will point to AJ Dillon being the likeliest beneficiary, but he has become such an integral part of this offense that I don’t see him taking on much of an increased role even with Jones unlikely to see much run, meaning we should see between six to 10 opportunities from each before they make way for Patrick Taylor, who saw six opportunities last week with Kylin Hill on IR. The matchup on the ground is pristine, yielding a robust 4.645 net-adjusted line yards metric, leaving the only concern the lack of certainty surrounding expected workloads. That would be a different discussion should Jones and/or Dillon rest, in which case the remaining member(s) of this backfield become highly intriguing.

It’s a similar story for the passing game here, as I’d expect Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Allen Lazard, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Josiah Deguara to play about half of the game. They should give way to Jordan Love, Equanimeous St. Brown, Juwann Winfree, Amari Rodgers, and Tyler Davis, likely leaving all members of the Packers passing game highly reliant on efficiency and touchdowns as a means of generating any fantasy utility. The matchup through the air is another pure one, as the Lions have been routinely victimized by deep passing on a league-average completion rate allowed. Should we get a more concrete answer before kickoff of what to expect with respect to personnel usage, we can adjust those thoughts based on who would be on the field this week.

How detroit Will Try To Win ::

The Lions come into their season finale battling through injuries, inconsistent quarterback play, and mass underperformance (outside of D’Andre Swift earlier in the season and Amon-Ra St. Brown later in the season). This is an organization with a lot to figure out in the offseason, but one that has a coaching staff hungry for improvement. They would like nothing more than to end their season with an emphatic victory at home against their divisional rivals. That is, assuming they don’t think the Jaguars can beat the Colts, in which case a victory would be a monumental failure (they currently hold the second overall pick in next years draft and can secure the first pick with a loss and a Jaguars win, however unlikely that may be). We’ve talked about this all season, but this Lions offense is built around the power run and intermediate passing games (of course, they’d like to be more aggressive downfield but are largely incapable of doing so based on the shortcomings of their quarterback room). Their year-long situation-neutral pass rate sits at a low 47%, which jumps all the way up to 63% when playing from behind this year. They run the league’s second-slowest situation-neutral offense, which jumps all the up to the second-fastest offense in the second half.

D’Andre Swift, Jamaal Williams, and Craig Reynolds split the backfield work last week (Swift’s first game back from four missed games) at a 57%/32%/22% clip, and I’d expect that split to remain rather sticky this week. It simply doesn’t make sense to run Swift into the ground, nor does it make sense to sit him entirely. That should lead to somewhere between 12 to 15 running back opportunities for Swift and Williams, with Reynolds left to fight for the six to eight remaining opportunities from the backfield. The matchup on the ground yields an above-average 4.415 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Packers defense ranked second-worst in that regard. The Packers cede only 21.5 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields, primarily due to facing the third-fewest rush attempts against (the combination of routine positive game script and an extremely slow pace of play simply mute the rushing output against).

Amon-Ra St. Brown has seen 11 or more targets in five straight games, which have come with a mixture of Jared Goff and Tim Boyle at quarterback. His crisp routes, ability to separate within five yards of the line of scrimmage, and quickness have made him the favorite target of both quarterbacks and the only real threat from this offense of late. Furthermore, the slot wide receiver has now scored five total touchdowns in his last five games (four receiving and one rushing). It bears mention that his price has come up to almost-prohibitive levels for a pass-catcher with a 6.9 aDOT, but there is nothing here to preclude him from once again cracking double-digit targets. Expect Kalif Raymond and Josh Reynolds to return to their starting perimeter roles after missing last week on the league’s COVID list, each typically floating around 70% snap rates. The tight end room has been a mess since TJ Hockenson was lost for the season, with all of Brock Wright, Shane Zylstra, Jared Pinkey, and Ross Travis playing significant snaps over the previous four weeks (who?).

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

We’re likely to see the Packers score two to three touchdowns in the first half, assuming the starters end up playing (which, again, I think is most likely here). This should make this game environment a familiar sight for the Lions, who have shown to be extremely aggressive in the second half of games they trail. Expect the Lions to increase their pace of play to extreme levels, their pass rates to above-average levels, and their desperation in the second half. It is also likely the starters for the Packers don’t touch the field in the second half, providing a viable opportunity for the Lions to claw their way back into the game. Whatever production the Lions can muster is likeliest to flow through Amon-Ra St. Brown and the running backs.

scenarios:

• The Packers have clinched the one-seed and only bye out of the NFC.
• The Lions have long been eliminated from post-season contention and currently hold the number two pick in 2022’s NFL draft – they could secure the first overall pick should they lose, and the Jaguars win this week. 

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• Only safety Andrew Sendejo finds himself on the league’s COVID list for the Colts; defensive tackle DeForest Buckner and cornerback Xavier Rhodes have yet to practice this week (as of Thursday).
• The Jaguars currently have eight players on the COVID list, most notably center Brandon Linder and three defensive starters (including both starting safeties); linebacker Myles Jack and tight end James O’Shaugnessy have yet to practice this week (as of Thursday).
• Win-and-in for the Colts, it’s that simple for them this week.
• The Colts have the highest Vegas implied team total on the slate at almost 30 points.
• The Jaguars have no incentive to win here, as a loss would secure the number one overall pick in the 2022 NFL draft.

How Indianaplois Will Try To Win ::

Clog the running lanes and play aggressive, ball-hawking defense while running the football behind a top-five offensive line. That’s basically what the Colts aim to accomplish on a weekly basis. They have both the third-highest overall rush rate and rush rate when trailing, have generated the most turnovers in the league (tied with Dallas), attempt the fifth-fewest passes per game, and allow just 21.2 points per game. Their situation-neutral pace of play is the slowest in the league, while their overall pace of play ranks 31^st. That’s really it – very simple to analyze and digest. Their opponent this week should do very little to slow down how the Colts like to approach games. The only hit to the fantasy prospectus of the Colts here is the potential for the team to rest players later in the game should they pull away from the Jaguars, because the team will be playing in next week’s Wildcard Round should they win.

Jonathan Taylor, man. The dude is an animal. Taylor’s high in snap rate over the first five weeks of the season was 55%. In the 11 games since then, he has not dipped below 65%, with eight of the last nine games checking in at 71% or more. He even has a game with a 98% snap rate in that timeframe (Week 15). Taylor is very clearly one of the most well-rounded running backs in recent history, capable of grinding out difficult four-to-five-yard gains inside, bouncing it out off the edge, catching the ball out of the backfield, and breaking away in the second level. Furthermore, Taylor has seen at least 21 running back opportunities in each of the last eight games, an absolutely absurd stretch. Oh, and he has four games in his last eight with 29 or more running back opportunities! As if Taylor needed more going for him, he is currently 266 rush yards short of the vaunted 2,000 yards mark. However unlikely it may be, we’ve seen as many as 253 rush yards from Taylor in his short career (Week 16 of 2020 against this same Jaguars team). It’s actually not outside the realm of possibility that his coach actually calls a game to help him get there, as Frank Reich is one of the more well-liked coaches from his players and has shown a propensity to pay attention to records and the like (although Reich’s primary concern is with winning football games). The matchup on the ground yields an elite 4.55 net-adjusted line yards metric against a defense allowing 25.1 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields, including 4.3 yards per carry. Behind Taylor, expect Nyhiem Hines to mix in for a now-modest role in a primary pass-catching and hurry-up capacity.

Carson Wentz hasn’t attempted more than 28 passes since a Week 12 game against the Buccaneers and we shouldn’t expect more than 24-28 pass attempts here, at the absolute maximum. Wide receiver Michael Pittman is the only pass-catcher with a near every-down role, regularly playing 95%+ of the offensive snaps. Zach Pascal, Ashton Dulin, and TY Hilton have been splitting the remaining wide receiver snaps virtually in three, with all of Jack Doyle, Mo Alie-Cox, and Kylen Granson splitting the snaps at tight end. There is no reason to go here on the largest slate of the season.

How Jacksonville Will Try to win ::

First of all, I’m not sure the Jaguars will try or should be trying, to win this game, as they currently hold the number one overall pick in next year’s draft. That said, they have an interim head coach (Darrell Bevell) that could be auditioning for his first head coaching gig (he has assumed interim head coaching duties in back-to-back seasons for different organizations). The Jags are also a very young team, for which additional game reps mean a good deal. Even if we expect the Jags to exhibit maximum effort for the duration of the game, their chances of generating any real success are heavily diminished by a lack of talent and their opponent. Jacksonville averages only 14.2 points per game (lowest in the league), allow 27.9 points per game (second-most in the league), and generate only 304.6 yards of offense per game. All signs point to an increase in their pass play rate against a pass-funnel opponent.

The backfield has been relegated to a three-way, demi-timeshare between Dare Ogunbowale, Ryquell Armstead, and a splash of Tavon Austin. Those three “backs” will be running behind the league’s 11^th-most efficient run-blocking offensive line against an opponent that ranks top-three against the run. Ogunbowale should be considered the lead back here, having played 66% of the offensive snaps a week ago, where he turned 11 total opportunities into 68 yards and a score (through the air). The matchup on the ground yields an average 4.33 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Colts defense allowing just 21.2 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields.

Over his last seven games, quarterback Trevor Lawrence has four games of 38 or more pass attempts and three games of 28 and below, with two of those games seeing the Jaguars run 48 offensive plays or fewer. Basically, this team has been forced into increased aerial aggression more often than not, even though they are much more efficient on the ground. Against a Colts team that tilts pass-funnel, in a game environment highly likely to see the Jags playing from behind for the majority of the game, we should tentatively expect Lawrence to land on the higher side of his wildly fluctuating range of pass attempts. The two primary pass-catchers for this offense are Marvin Jones, Jr. and Laquon Treadwell. Each play near every-down roles on the perimeter, with slot snaps being shared between running back/wide receiver hybrid Tavon Austin and LaViska Shenault, Jr. Tight end James O’Shaugnessy has been ruled out for this game, leaving tight end duties to blocking tight end Chris Manhertz, Luke Farrell, and Kahale Warring. The Colts rank near the middle of the league in both opponent completion rate and yards allowed per completion, making narrowing down where pass game production is likeliest to flow rather difficult. What we do know is that MJJ and Treadwell are on the field almost every offensive snap.

Likeliest Game flow ::

It is likeliest we see the Colts come into Jacksonville and walk the Jaguars off the field. The Colts carry the week’s highest Vegas implied team total, hold the week’s largest spread, and very clearly are the better team in all aspects. Although we’ve seen some weird things happen in the league this year, this is definitely not a spot to overthink. The game environment is almost entirely up to the Jaguars to dictate, in that we should loosely expect the Colts to not only take their foot off the gas late if they are handily controlling the game but likely rest starters in the process. If the Jaguars can muster a couple of scores within the first three quarters, wheels up for the main pieces of this game.

Scenarios ::

• Jacksonville has long been eliminated from playoff contention but they are “playing” for the number one pick in 2023’s NFL draft.
• The Colts can earn the five-seed with a win and some help and could fall out of the postseason entirely with a loss – very much a win or go-home endeavor here.
• Finally, the Colts play in the early time slot while the Bills and Patriots play in the afternoon time slot and the Chargers and Raiders (two teams chasing them) play on Sunday Night Football.

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DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>

• The Giants backfield is a timeshare.
• Jaret Patterson is likely to compliment Antonio Gibson.
• Both team’s passing attacks are a mess.
• There isn’t a lot to like for DFS in this game.

How washington Will Try To Win ::

The 6-10 Football Team comes into this game completing another disappointing campaign, coming off four straight division losses, including a 56-14 drubbing by the hated Cowboys. The WFT have talented pieces but when Ryan Fitzpatrick went down early in the year this team was doomed to another tough season. Ron Rivera is among the coaches that must be nervous about their job, giving him an incentive to win this game. Win or lose, it might not be enough to get Rivera another season in Washington. 

The Football Team has become a slow-paced side (19^th in situational neutral pace) that doesn’t speed up when losing (30^th in pace when trailing), making them a team that sucks the life out of games. The Giants defense has been below average against the pass (17^th in DVOA) and poor against the run (29^th in DVOA) presenting as a mini-run funnel but also as a defense that is weak no matter how you choose to attack. Rivera is adaptable and likely to attack the Giants run defense rather than turning things over to his shaky QB. Expect the Football Team to try and win with a run balanced approach if they are ahead on the scoreboard.   

How new york Will Try To Win ::

The 4-12 Giants are polishing off one of the worst seasons in recent memory. They lost star RB multiple times throughout the year to lower bodies injuries, had every manner of misfortune befall their WR group, were reminded that their TE isn’t good at football, fired their offensive coordinator mid-season, and lost their starting QB to a mysterious neck injury that seems to be getting worse. All of this behind an offensive line that desperately needs an overhaul, and a defense that can’t stop anyone. The Giants are a mess.

The Football Team’s defense has been weak against the pass (28^th in DVOA) and solid against the run (10^th in DVOA). The Football Team has been attackable through the air, but the Giants set up exceedingly poorly to take advantage of their opponent’s weaknesses. Jake Fromm is expected to start and Joe Judge might as well throw caution into the wind letting Fromm try to exploit the Football Team’s poor secondary. The Giants have had no continuity in their offensive play calling or personnel the past two months, which has led to point totals of 10/13/9/21/6/10/3 in their past seven games. The G-men are averaging a sorry 10.2 points per game during that stretch.  Expect the Giants to try and pass, but ultimately fail offensively.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has a comically low total (38) because this game is quite possibly a pairing of the two worst offenses in the league. You can’t expect either team to score many points, even though both defenses are also weak. Washington is still the better side since the Giants are in total shambles. The most likely game flow has the Football Team successfully being able to play “hide the QB,” riding their defense and running game to a sloppy low-scoring victory.

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DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>

• This game means nothing for either team, but means a lot to both coaches who are trying to save their jobs.
• Vikings games are highly game flow dependent.
• This is an all or nothing DFS spot.
• Dalvin Cook is the best floating play from this game.

How chicago Will Try To Win ::

The 6-10 Bears come into Week 18 having been eliminated from the playoffs for the past three weeks. Matt Nagy’s seat is on fire and riding a two-game meaningless winning streak is unlikely to save him. Nagy announced that Fields is expected to return as a full practice participant this week, which means he is healthy enough to start. The Bears want to play slow (23^rd in situational neutral pace) but have been aggressive lately as Nagy has been more willing to let Fields throw. Nagy seems to know that his best chance at holding onto his job is showcasing Fields’ development.

The Vikings defense has been beatable through the air (16^th in DVOA), and weak against the run (25^th in DVOA), presenting as a mini-run funnel. That difference shouldn’t tilt the Bears away from playing a pass-balanced style designed to put up points in Nagy’s last chance to show the Bears brass why he deserves one more year. Fields threw 39 times in these team’s first meeting and it’s reasonable to expect a similar game plan.

How minnesota Will Try To Win ::

The 7-9 Vikings come into Week 18 at the tail end of another disappointing year. They were expected to compete with the Packers for the NFC North, but they failed to even be a threat for a wildcard playoff berth. The Vikings have talent on their roster but continue to underperform and have particularly disappointed on defense. Mike Zimmer is a defensive-minded coach that has a lot of skilled players on offense that should be a good combination but it hasn’t worked in Minnesota. 

The Vikings want to play at a moderate pace (17^th situational neutral) but are willing to speed way up if they’re behind (4^th in pace), which makes Vikings games highly susceptible to game flow. This week they get a Bears defense that has been respectable against the pass (10^th in DVOA), but weak against the run (23rdin DVOA). This sets up well for how the Vikings prefer to attack. Expect them to slam Dalvin Cook and use the threat of run to set up downfield shots; the usual formula, in what is possibly Mike Zimmer’s last game as the Vikings head coach.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has a moderate total (45) which feels like a hedge between things playing out as a slow-paced division game with a lot of running, and the Bears taking a lead which will turn the Vikings into a fast-paced aggressive team. Neither side has anything to play for, but both coaches do, as they could easily be the first two head coaches released when the season ends. Expect both teams to play hard, with the most likely outcome being the Vikings riding their running game to a win.

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Tributaries ::

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• The Titans don’t currently have any players on the COVID list; defensive tackle Naquan Jones has yet to practice this week while cornerback Jackrabbit Jenkins was downgraded from a limited showing on Wednesday to a “DNP” on Thursday.
• Derrick Henry was designated for return from IR on Wednesday.
• Only defensive back Justin Reid finds himself on the COVID list for the Texans; wide receiver Chris Conley, tight end Jordan Akins, and wide receiver Chris Moore have yet to practice this week.

How Tennessee Will Try To Win ::

The Titans have really gotten things done on the defensive side of the ball over the last month of play, holding their last four opponents to only 9.75 points per game. These weren’t games against world-beater teams, but they held a Dolphins team in contention for the postseason to just three points, the likely playoff-bound 49ers to 17 points, and the fighting-for-their-lives Steelers to 19 points (not to mention the shutout against the Jags). In a game against another struggling offense (30^th-ranked 15.9 points per game this year), we should expect the same macro game plan here. Said game plan involves a slow pace of play (27^th overall), elevated rush rates (second-highest overall rush rate this season), a defense designed to get after the quarterback (41 sacks) through organic pressure (fourth-lowest blitz rate), hold opponents to primarily-short passing (7.7 aDOT against), and clamp down against the run (fewest fantasy points per game allowed to opposing backfields). That defensive game plan feels tailored precisely to their opponent this week, one that prefers to run the football and plays at a slow pace.

Derrick Henry saw his 21-day practice window opened on Wednesday this week, giving him at least a shot at returning for the season finale. The team has until 4 pm Eastern on Saturday to make that decision, but I would tentatively expect he is held out to be allowed the extra two weeks to get fully healthy for the playoffs. As in, his 21-day practice window spans all the way until the Wednesday before what would be their Divisional Round game, and they clearly can activate him earlier should they lose this week. Should Henry be held out, the primary rushing duties would fall to D’Onta Foreman, who has seen 20 or more running back opportunities in three of Tennessee’s last five games. He also saw his highest snap rate of the season last week at 65%, which came in a game with both Dontrell Hilliard and Jeremy McNichols active. The matchup on the ground yields an above average 4.42 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Houston defense allowing a robust 28.0 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. The increase in snap rate for Foreman came at the direct expense of McNichols last week, and I’d expect the same this week in a game that plays to an increase to the already-high rush rates of the Titans.
The Titans pass-catcher are getting healthy at the right time, as Julio Jones’ stint on the COVID list allowed him time for his hamstring woes to heal up. The only regular pass-catcher out this week appears to be MyCole Pruitt, and even then he was only serving a modest role at tight end. Expect Tommy Hudson to see some run as the third tight end this week. It remains to be seen exactly how the snap rates will shake out for the Tennessee pass-catchers, but I would tentatively expect them to take it rather easy on AJ Brown and Julio Jones here, as each has recently returned from multi-week absences due to injury. Their Week 16 game is likeliest the best comparison, a game that saw AJ Brown, Julio Jones, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, and Chester Rodgers all play between 50% and 74% of the offensive snaps in a loose rotation. As in, lead tight end Geoff Swaim could see the highest snap rate of all Tennessee pass-catchers here. Expect him to be joined by Anthony Firkser and the aforementioned Tommy Hudson. Houston has allowed the fourth-highest average yards per completion at 11.3 and have allowed the 12^th-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks.

How Houston Will Try to win ::

Houston wants to be another slow-paced, high rush rate team, checking in with a 24^th-ranked situation-neutral pace of play and an above average 46% rush rate on first and second down with the score within seven points. They are also a team that will open things up in the second half of games they are trailing, bringing the fifth-fastest second-half pace of play and 12^th-ranked second-half pass rate into Week 18. This is another example of a team whose motivation for winning is put in question, as a win could cost them a draft slot or two. Houston averages just 59.6 plays per game (second-lowest in the league, ahead of only Seattle), which should primarily be attributed to a combination of slow pace of play, poor offensive efficiency, and poor standing in defensive efficiency.

Rex Burkhead has played his way into a contract extension over the previous seven weeks of play, emerging as the unquestioned lead back of this backfield. He has seen 18 or more running back opportunities in four of those last seven games, but should be thought of as a “borderline yardage and touchdown back,” as the Texans simply don’t target their backfield at a high rate (as in, it’s not that Burkhead isn’t effective through the air, it’s just that this offense doesn’t send the backs on routes, meaning the majority of his targets come from broken plays). Expect Royce Freeman to serve as the primary change of pace back while David Johnson is welcomed back to serve as the primary third-down option. The matchup on the ground could not be worse, yielding a laughable 3.705 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Titans defense allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing backfields.

Brandin Cooks has commanded a massive 26.7% team target market share and 40.4% of the team’s available air yards, and that’s with a missed game this season. All of that to say, this pass offense has been “Brandin Cooks or bust,” and when Cooks is removed from the game, the entire Texans pass game has often failed. That said, Cooks has been viable all season in games we can project the Texans to pass more and against opponents they are likelier to achieve success against. Cooks has both working in his favor this week. Behind Cooks, Chris Conley and Niko Collins have operated as the WR2 and WR3 this season. Conley is currently listed as questionable after failing to practice at all this week, possibly opening up snaps for Danny Amendola and Chris Moore (if active, he’s also questionable). The tight end situation has remained a three-way timeshare, just now the snaps are split amongst Brevin Jordan, Pharaoh Brown, and Antony Auclair, with Jordan Akins largely being phased out. The expected range of pass attempts for quarterback Davis Mills should land in the 28-32 range, with a slight chance at more should the Texans fall behind big early.

Likeliest Game flow ::

The Titans are likely to assert themselves sooner rather than later here, with a defense built to handle exactly how the Texans would like to attack and an offense well-suited to take advantage of Houston’s shortcomings. The slow combined pace of play in the first half is likely to lead to a low-scoring half, particularly from the Texans. Similarly, the increase in expected pace of play in the second half from the Texans should lead to an additional possession or two for the Titans, a slight boost to whichever players we can project to still remain in the game should they have the game in hand. Since the Titans are highly unlikely to adjust their offensive game plan unless down by multiple scores into the second half, and since the Texans are highly unlikely to find themselves in that scenario, we should expect this likeliest scenario to carry a higher degree of certainty than other spots on the slate, particularly considering how the various game flows influence the decision-making processes of teams.

Scenarios ::

• The Titans can clinch the one-seed and only bye out of the AFC with a win.
• They can also back their way into the one-seed with losses by the Chiefs, Bengals, and Patriots.
• The Texans have long been eliminated from post season contention.

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DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>

• The Steelers should let Ben throw in what is probably his last game.
• Dionte Johnson is priced for his floor, but has a great matchup.
• The Ravens backfield swings between featuring Devonte Freeman and being a timeshare.
• Mark Andrews is priced $800 above the second most expensive TE (George Kittle).

How pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::

The 8-7-1 Steelers are coming off an emotional win against the Browns and barring a crazy circumstance, it will be Ben Roethlisberger’s last home game. Speaking as a lifelong Steelers season ticket holder that will always remember your first game and your last, thanks Ben. Despite the win last week, the Steelers still need help to make the postseason. They must win, and the Colts need to lose to the Jaguars. The Colts aren’t likely to lose to the Jaguars, but you never know, which will keep Pittsburgh playing hard. 

The Steelers play quickly (8^th in situational neutral pace) and stay within the top 12 in pace regardless of score. They want to attack with an up-tempo short passing game designed to hide their deficiencies along the offensive line and Ben’s aging arm. The Ravens are weak against the pass (30^th in DVOA) and strong against the run (6^th in DVOA) presenting one of the clearest pass funnels in the league. This matches up well with how the Steelers want to attack, and Pittsburgh is unlikely to deviate from its normal short-passing strategy. Considering the narrative that this is probably Ben’s last game, against the biggest rival of his career, there is every reason to think the Steelers will come out throwing.  

How baltimore Will Try To Win ::

The 8-8 Ravens come into Week 18 having totally collapsed down the stretch. A month ago, the Ravens looked as if they would cruise to an AFC North title, with a shot at the top seed. Four weeks later, they aren’t mathematically eliminated from the playoffs but would need a win plus a minor miracle. This sliver of hope will keep the Ravens at full speed, with the added motivation of playing a long-time rival (Ben) in his final game. Three of the Ravens four straight losses have come by a combined five points, and they’d like nothing more than to take that frustration out on Pittsburgh. 

The Ravens play slow (27^th in situational neutral pace) and stay slow in all circumstances, only speeding up (15^th in pace) if trailing by more than a touchdown. The Steelers defense has been middling against the pass (13^th in DVOA) but uncharacteristically pounded on the ground (27^th in DVOA), posting one of their worst seasons defending the run in recent history. It’s uncertain if we see Lamar Jackson or Tyler Huntley, but they are similar enough players that it shouldn’t affect the Ravens game plan. The Ravens have been surprisingly pass-heavy recently (probably due to their deficiencies at RB), but this matchup should tilt them towards the ground. Despite the matchup, the Ravens limitations at RB should keep them balanced rather than run-heavy. Expect Baltimore to try and take a lead early by playing balanced, and then relying more heavily on the ground game late to run out the clock.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has a low total (41.5) because both offenses have looked poor lately. Neither defense has been particularly strong, but bad offenses are bad offenses for a reason, and they don’t become good by facing a weak defense. Both defenses have been weak defending one area (the run for the Steelers, the pass for the Ravens), rather than overall sieves, and both are likely to get up for an always physical division rivalry game. The Steelers appear to be in better position to take advantage of the Ravens defensive weakness, but it’s worth noting the Ravens have mostly been victimized by deep passing, something the Steelers don’t do well. The Ravens would normally set up well against a team that can’t defend the run, but injuries have decimated their RBs making it less likely they slam it down the Steelers throat. The most likely game flow is a closely contested contest between two teams that know each other well ending in a one-score game that is decided late in the 4^th quarter.  

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DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The Bengals have seven players currently on the league’s COVID list, most notably Joe Mixon; five players have yet to practice this week, with reports out of Cincinnati indicating that key players are likely to rest this week (quarterback Joe Burrow and running back Joe Mixon amongst them).
• Running backs D’Ernest Johnson and Dexter Williams, and defensive tackle Malik Jackson are currently on the COVID list for the Browns; tight end David Njoku and cornerback Denzel Ward have yet to practice this week, while quarterback Baker Mayfield was placed on IR earlier this week.
• Reports out of Cincinnati indicate the team will rest key players this week, but it remains to be seen who will be inactive on game day.

How CINCINNATI Will Try To Win ::

The Bengals can finish the season anywhere from the one-seed to the four-seed, and while we don’t currently know how head coach Zac Taylor will approach his personnel decisions this week, we have to assume that the game plan and strategy will be built to maximize the players he has on the field. Taylor is one of the top offensive minds in the league and has shifted the focus of this team throughout the season to maximize his team’s potential. Here’s what we know:

• Joe Mixon was placed in the league’s COVID protocol on Wednesday and will miss this game.
• Reports from Bengals beat writers convey a message of caution relating to resting key players.
• The Bengals need a loss by the Chiefs and Titans to secure the one-seed.
• The Chiefs play on Saturday, likely influencing personnel decisions for the Bengals.
• The Titans play at the same time as the Bengals on Sunday.

With those pieces in mind, we really have no clue how Taylor is going to approach this game, but I would contend that his decisions will be heavily influenced by what the Chiefs do on Saturday. Either way, expect max effort from whatever players are active on Sunday. The Bengals have been a highly adaptable team this year, as evidenced by their rush-pass splits against various opponents this season. Against a Cleveland defense better against the pass than the run, we should expect a heavier dose of the ground game here.

Joe Mixon has seen snap rates ranging from 58% to 82% in the seven games since the team’s Week 10 bye. Behind Mixon on the depth chart are Samaje Perine, Chris Evans, and Trayveon Williams, who are all likely to be active without Mixon. The only other game where Mixon was limited this season was Week 5 against the Packers, a game in which Perine handled six times more snaps than Evans, and we have to assume Perine would step into a similar role to what Mixon has exhibited this season. That means 20-22 running back opportunities are the likeliest range of outcomes for Perine here, with Evans likely landing in the six to 10 opportunity range. The matchup on the ground yields a below-average 4.215 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Browns defense allowing 22.6 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields.

The pass game carries a higher rate of unknowns than the ground game does for the Bengals, as current reports are that Burrow and his primary pass-catchers are likely to sit. We’re going to explore the rest of this write-up leaving out any names and just dive into the pure matchup and how things set up for whichever receivers are active. Cleveland ranks in the middle of the pack in completion rate allowed at 64.35%, have held their opposition to the fifth-lowest yards per completion at 9.5, but have allowed 1.8 pass touchdowns per game (24th in the league). Joe Woods’ heavy zone defense utilizes primarily Cover-2 and Cover-3 zone concepts designed to force teams underneath. This has come to fruition as the team ranks top ten in aDOT forced (10th) and total air yards (fourth) while ranking middle of the pack in YAC allowed. Consider the matchup a slight boost to the more moderate aDOT pass-catchers from the Bengals.

How cleveland Will Try To Win ::

Cleveland would like nothing more than to end another disappointing season with a statement win. The problem is they will be playing with a backup quarterback and injuries in the secondary. Considering what we know about this team, expect a heavy reliance on the ground game behind the league’s second-ranked run-blocking offensive line for as long as possible.

Kareem Hunt continues his journey back from an ankle injury and is currently listed as questionable for Sunday. Curiously enough, we haven’t seen a drastic increase to Nick Chubb’s snap rate with Hunt out of the lineup this year, with the team instead electing to give D’Ernest Johnson (who is currently on the COVID list) and Demetric Felton increased run. We should tentatively expect more of the same here, putting a hard cap on Chubb’s expected range of opportunities (21-23 opportunities in three of the Browns last four games). The matchup on the ground yields an average 4.345 net-adjusted line yards metric against the pass-funnel nature of the Bengals defense. The Bengals have allowed 24.4 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields this season.

Case Keenum has been named the starter for the Browns this week, whose 6.4 intended air yards per pass attempt value would rank second to last in the league, just ahead of the 6.3 value for Jared Goff. That means we should expect a heavier dose of Jarvis Landry and the tight ends through the air. The issue for the Browns is that the Bengals defense is built to clog the middle of the field and take away higher probability passing, instead almost daring teams to throw deep against them. Not good, Bob. Expect Donovan Peoples-Jones, Rashard Higgins, and Anthony Schwartz to fill the remaining wide receiver snaps, and all three of David Njoku, Austin Hooper, and Harrison Bryant to see snaps at tight end, assuming Njoku plays. Austin Hooper and Harrison Bryant are in a route on only 41% and 39% of their snaps that come on pass plays, so the upside remains limited to touchdown equity.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

There really is no telling what the likeliest game flow is here outside of the fact that we should expect a run-heavy approach from each team, making this game unlikely to provide team-based upside. As such, the most optimal way of attacking this spot is to utilize targeted one-offs or completely stay away. Basically, there isn’t much in this one to provide enough of a spark to make team stacks and full game stacks viable. Expect a slow-paced, run-heavy game environment with a more conservative approach from each team.

Scenarios ::

• Although the Bengals are technically still alive for the one-seed in the AFC, they would need to win while both the Titans and Chiefs lose.
• The Bengals can only fall as far as the four-seed based on having already locked up the AFC North.
• The latter of those two situations, when paired with the numerous nagging injuries and COVID issues, is likely the driving force behind the decision to rest key starters this week for the Bengals; they know they are hosting a home playoff game in the Wildcard Round regardless of the outcome this week.
• The Browns were eliminated from postseason contention two weeks ago.

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DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>

• This is a rare rematch of a matchup that we saw just two weeks ago, with the Bucs winning the first game in Carolina 32-6.
• Tampa Bay has a chance at securing multiple home games in the playoffs despite a tumultuous second half of the season.
• Sam Darnold has continued to look shaky this season for the Panthers, with one last audition for next season against a tough defense.
• Tampa Bay’s strength lines up with the strength of the Panthers defense.

How carolina Will Try To Win ::

Carolina was able to stay with their running game in Week 17 against the Saints, despite limited success, because the Saints were unable to generate much offense themselves to force the issue. In this matchup against one of the league’s top offenses, Carolina is unlikely to be able to maintain the near 50/50 run-pass split that they operated with last week. Tampa Bay also operates as one of the more extreme “pass funnel” defenses in the league, so Carolina is likely to need to move the ball with short area to intermediate passing. The Panthers attempted 45 passes compared to just 15 rushes in the Week 16 matchup with the Bucs, and that was with Cam Newton starting and playing a good portion of the game. It is highly likely that the Panthers will be forced to have Darnold throw 40+ times again in this game against a Tampa Bay defense that gave up solid production to Zach Wilson, Braxton Berrios, and the Jets last week. In the Week 16 game, the Panthers only managed a meager 5.58 yards per pass attempt.

The only scenario where I could see the Panthers being able to stay balanced would be if they make a big play or get a turnover that leads to an early score and lead that gives them some control of the game.

How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::

Tampa Bay’s offense is second in the league in pace of play and leads the league in pass rate. While the Panthers have a very good pass defense, which is the easier path to attack them, they will be without star cornerback Stephon Gilmore, and there is a chance that some other key players will sit as well. Coming off an ugly performance in Week 17 and with all of the negativity around the Bucs over the last week, I would expect Tom Brady to come out focused and dice up the Panthers through the air. The Bucs are already without Leonard Fournette, and now Ronald Jones is likely to miss Sunday’s game with an ankle injury, leaving Ke’Shawn Vaughn as the lead running back. Vaughn has looked good the last two weeks, but the Bucs are unlikely to give him 25-30 touches, increasing the likelihood of an aggressive passing attack for Tampa Bay.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This is a game that means a lot for the Bucs in terms of playoff seeding, as well as momentum heading into the playoffs. Coming off the bad performance in New York and with a lot of new pieces on offense, the Bucs will treat this game with laser focus and like a dress rehearsal to get things rolling heading into the playoffs. Last year the Bucs won four straight games heading into the playoffs, scoring an average of 37 points per game, as they built momentum for their playoff run. This year, they have an ugly win against the Jets and a shutout loss to the Saints in the last three weeks. I don’t know if the “Angry Tom” narrative is real, but I do know that when good teams with high-end quarterbacks play poor teams whose seasons are over, it usually has a predictable outcome.

With that in mind, this game sets up for the Bucs to take control of the game early and really pour it on. The Bucs control the tempo in that scenario and force Darnold to throw the ball at a very high rate against a secondary that should be in much better shape than they were last week (when multiple starters were on the COVID list and cleared Sunday morning, then had flight issues that kept them from arriving at the stadium until right before kickoff). The Bucs may pull their starters and key players in the 4th quarter of this game if they are in clear control and/or the Rams are able to pull away from the 49ers (thus locking Tampa into the 3-seed), but even in that scenario, they will have likely done a ton of damage already.

scenarios:

The Bucs are currently the 3-seed but can get up to the 2-seed with a win and a Rams loss. The Rams play at the same time as the Bucs in a game that the 49ers also need to win. The 49ers also beat the Rams in their first matchup, so the 2-seed is very viable for the Bucs. This would be a big deal as it would give Tampa Bay back-to-back home games in the first two rounds of the playoffs, as well as a chance for a home game in the NFC Championship if the Packers were to lose in the divisional round. The Bucs also have incentives for Brady and Gronk that are attainable, and Mike Evans can reach his 8th consecutive 1,000-yard season. They will approach this game in a normal fashion until it is fully in control.

Pay attention to news out of Carolina regarding players being surprisingly inactive or limited. They may be looking for a franchise quarterback in the draft and currently would have the 6th pick in the draft. Depending on other results, if they win, they could fall as far as the 9th pick, and if they lose, they could move up as far as the 3rd pick. The Panthers are an analytically driven team and are likely very aware of this situation. They likely don’t need to give the Bucs any help in taking care of this game, but it wouldn’t be surprising for them to be “overly cautious” with some key guys to make sure they don’t hurt their future in a meaningless game.

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DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By MJohnson86 >>

• A lot has changed for these teams since they faced in Week 1 where the Dolphins won a tight 17-16 game.
• New England has a chance to win the division with a win and a loss by the Bills.
• Miami has a chance to have back-to-back winning seasons for the first time since 2002-2003.
• New England has a balanced, methodical attack while Miami has a pass-heavy attack that is likely to put a lot on Tua’s plate this week.

How New ENgland Will Try To Win ::

The Patriots have established themselves as a balanced and dangerous offense, ranking top-10 in the league by most metrics in both rushing and passing efficiency. They have a dominant offensive line and use a high rate of heavy personnel with multiple tight ends and/or a fullback. The Dolphins run defense has improved significantly from the poor unit we saw in 2020 and early in this season but is still the easier path to attack them. Mac Jones has been surgical this season with a 67% completion percentage and a solid 7.2 yards per pass attempt. It has been extremely impressive to see him pick up a complex Patriots offense so quickly and make the reads to get the ball to the right spot regularly. The Patriots deploy a diverse set of personnel groups and formations, forcing defenses to adjust and stay on their toes. This makes things easier on both the running game and passing game, as teams are unable to load the box against the run and also forced to respect the two-headed backfield of Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson, which gives Jones some easier reads when he drops back.

New England is likely to approach this game with their usual balanced approach and personnel groupings, exploiting weaknesses in the Dolphins (including a run defense that the Titans gashed last week). They also operate at the 5th slowest situation-neutral pace in the league and are unlikely to push the tempo in this game.

How Miami Will Try to win ::

Miami does not own their 1st round pick and has a chance to finish the year with a winning record with a win this week. Head coach Brian Flores is a Patriots disciple so this game will mean something extra to him as well, so we should expect a full effort from Miami (who beat New England in Week 1). The Dolphins are eliminated from the playoffs because of tiebreakers, but this game will still mean something to them. Tua Tagovailoa is not in the clear to be the Dolphins starting quarterback next season, with one last audition to prove himself and keep them from pursuing quarterback replacements via trades and free agency.

Miami is middle of the pack in situation-neutral pace of play and ranks 8th in the league in pass rate. Given all of the rumors around Tua this season and his miserable performance in Week 17, I would not be surprised to see the Dolphins put a lot on his plate and give him one last chance to show what he can do, for better or worse. The Patriots have one of the top pass defenses in the league, which would usually be something that would push the Dolphins to a more run-focused attack, but Week 18 is a different animal and long-term evaluations and plans will likely take precedent over just what may be slightly more +EV for them in the context of this week. While I don’t think the Dolphins will just abandon the run and throw every play, I do think that a more aggressive passing attack that asks Tua to push the ball down the field and make more plays is highly likely.

Likeliest Game flow ::

This game is likely to stay close early on, as the Patriots are the better team and have a balanced and methodical offense while the Dolphins are a respectable team who won’t just let them march down the field repeatedly like the Jaguars allowed last week. As noted previously, the Dolphins may become more aggressive in this game but as long as the Patriots are still playing to win and have all their guys on the field it is unlikely that Miami would be able to turn this game’s tempo up significantly. We should expect another competitive game between these teams, who have both changed and improved in the 16 weeks since they last faced each other. However, there is a chance that the “likeliest game flow” gets disrupted by external influences – that scenario is outlined below….

Scenarios ::

• The Patriots are currently the 5-seed in the AFC but can win the AFC East and move up as high as the 2-seed if they win and the Bills lose to the Jets.
• If the Bills beat the Jets, the Patriots will be locked into either the 5-seed or 6-seed.
• The Bills are 17-point home favorites and beat the Jets 45-17 a few weeks ago.
• If the Patriots don’t see a difference between the 5-seed and 6-seed, this game may actually mean more to the Dolphins than it does to the Patriots. Bill Belichick has lost key players in meaningless games before, I wouldn’t be surprised with him treating this as a glorified preseason game once the Bills take control of the Jets.
• The Patriots will approach this game like normal, as they can’t let a chance to win the division get away. However, if the Bills perform as expected we can reasonably expect the Patriots to switch gears mid-game with a trip to Cincinnati or Buffalo likely on the horizon for the Wild Card round of the playoffs in just six or seven days.

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DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By MJohnson86 >>

• Very simple for the Saints – must-win game if they want a chance to get in the playoffs.
• These teams had an eventful game in their first meeting, with the Falcons pulling off a 27-25 last-second win.
• Both offenses have turned into run-heavy teams over the second half of the season, ranking 21st and 23rd in the league in situation-neutral pass rates.
• The Falcons were eliminated from playoff contention last week.

How New Orleans Will Try To Win ::

New Orleans will continue to be a run-heavy operation with Taysom Hill operating as their quarterback. The Saints have run the ball on 51% of their offensive plays during Hill’s four starts. This week they face a Falcons run defense that is 30th in DVOA, 26th in yards per carry allowed, and 28th in PFF rush defense grade. The Falcons are also a team who just had their playoff hopes put to rest last week and have nothing to play for, other than ruining the Saints chances at the playoffs.

New Orleans will use their dual-threat rushing attack to stretch the Atlanta defense and attack their overmatched front seven horizontally. The Saints also involve their running backs heavily in the passing game, essentially acting as an extension of the running game at times as a way to stay conservative but give defenses a different look. The Saints had a condensed target tree in last week’s win over Carolina, with Kamara and Marquez Callaway combining for 16 of the 23 targets that Saints pass catchers saw. This week may see a return of Mark Ingram, while Deonte Harris should be practicing in full after missing most of last week on the COVID list; both situations that should work to spread the distribution of targets a bit more evenly than we saw last week. The Saints have their season on the line and will lean into their clear and obvious strength against a team that is dead in the water and is already vulnerable to rushing attacks.

How Atlanta Will Try to win ::

One of the great mysteries of the 2021 NFL season will be how the Falcons were able to stay in the playoff race until Week 17. The Falcons have somehow managed a 7-9 record despite a -136 point differential, which is 27th in the league. Of the nine games the Falcons have lost, seven of them have been by double digits with four of those being by over 20 points. Truly incredible stuff that a team who was that consistently bad was able to find a way to seven wins and also impressive that all seven of their wins were in one-score games.

Atlanta was a pass-heavy team last season and early this year, but the losses of Julio Jones and then Calvin Ridley have transitioned them to a balanced squad out of necessity. Matt Ryan has a potential out in his contract after this season, and the Falcons may be at a point where a change is coming, making this potentially his last game with the franchise. While that is not necessarily likely (it would be a $40 million cap hit to the Falcons to cut him), it also would not be entirely surprising if they let him go, take their lumps in 2022, and draft a new franchise QB in 2023. The Falcons have been splitting their backfield pretty evenly between Mike Davis and Cordarrelle Patterson recently, as Patterson is clearly dealing with some health issues. It wouldn’t be shocking for Patterson to be rested this week. The Saints have an elite run defense, but their pass defense is also very good – which is no surprise as it has been their defense that has kept them in postseason contention despite a disappointing offensive season. Kyle Pitts is also battling a hamstring injury but needs 58 receiving yards to break the NFL single-season record for receiving yards by a rookie tight end. The Falcons will continue their balanced attack but are likely to struggle to move the ball consistently.

Likeliest Game flow ::

The Saints are likely to control this game as the Falcons offense is simply not explosive enough to take a big lead on the Saints defense in a must-win game. New Orleans is methodical and run-heavy, meaning this game is likely to be a grinder with the Saints gradually pulling ahead. This has been a heated rivalry over the years, so I don’t expect the Falcons to just roll over, but the Saints running game is likely to keep the chains and the clock moving as Atlanta has struggled mightily with good running games this year. Just last week the Bills, a normally pass-first team, ran for 233 yards and four touchdowns against them. Buffalo spread the field and ran with their own dual-threat QB, Josh Allen, and their running backs – potentially setting the blueprint for the Saints in Week 18.

Scenarios ::

• The Saints will make the playoffs if they win and the 49ers lose, a very realistic outcome considering San Francisco is playing in Los Angeles against the current 2-seed Rams who must win to hold on to their division lead.
• The Falcons were alive for the playoffs until last week when they lost to the Bills 29-15.
• Perhaps the most unpredictable teams in the last week of the season are those who were just eliminated from the playoffs. Teams who were eliminated long ago have been playing for nothing for a while, so there is less reason to change things for this last week. Teams that were just knocked out often have some players who were playing through injuries that they can now shut down or players who they will protect for future years and/or salary cap purposes in case they want to cut them in the off-season. Something to keep in mind with Atlanta and other teams in similar situations.

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Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>

• The Bills need a win in order to clinch the AFC East and can get as high as the 2-seed depending on other outcomes.
• The Jets offense has come alive to end the season, averaging 24.7 points per game over the last three weeks.
• Both teams have shown high pass rates and tempo over the course of the season and recently.
• These teams previously met in New York, with the Bills winning 45-17.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

The Jets had only scored 24 or more points in one Zach Wilson start this season prior to Week 15. Since then, they have hit that mark in all three of their games, including a game they should have won against a very good Tampa Bay defense. While this comparison may be a stretch, we don’t have to look far in this game to see a highly criticized first-round pick who struggled early in his rookie season before the light bulb came on to end the year – as Josh Allen’s second half to his rookie season certainly propelled him to the improvement we have seen since. Let me be clear, Wilson hasn’t been anything close to great recently, but he at least hasn’t kept the Jets from staying in games. Young players adjusting to the NFL take some time, and players can get better. This will be a game where Wilson will have to show a lot of improvement to keep the Jets competitive.

New York has the second-highest situation-neutral pass rate and plays at an above-average pace this season. Unfortunately, the Bills have one of the top pass defenses in the league and have destroyed many of the weaker teams they have played this season – including the Jets. New York is unlikely to significantly change their play calling or approach for the final game in the season, so that pass rate is something we should expect to stay consistent here unless they can somehow take a lead or the weather turns this game into a mess. The passing game should focus on screens and short-area passing to protect Wilson from the Bills pass rush and keep him from challenging PFF’s #2 graded coverage unit.

How buffalo Will Try To Win ::

Buffalo destroyed the Jets in their first meeting and should be able to have their way again here in a must-win game at home. The Bills have become a much more balanced team this season than we saw last year, running the ball at a 47% rate over the last three weeks. It is important to note, however, that two of those games were against a “run funnel” defense of the Panthers and the poor rushing defense of the Falcons in poor weather.

The Bills need a win and have advantages everywhere. They can attack in any manner that they want. While they have been run-heavy of late and during their first game with the Jets, the Bills are likely to have great efficiency both on the ground and through the air. In the Week 10 meeting with the Jets, Allen threw for 366 yards on just 28 pass attempts. The weather in Buffalo on Sunday looks clear but currently looks like it will have 15-20 mph winds throughout the game. While this may have a small effect on deep passing, Allen has a strong enough arm to overcome the slight weather issues. Also, with a victory appearing to be easily attainable through any mode of attack, it would make sense for the Bills to limit the number of hits Allen takes with the playoffs just a week away. This leads me to think the Bills may lean on their passing game more early in the game and use their running backs rather than Allen when they do decide to run. Last week against the Falcons, Allen ran the ball 15 times, including a lot of designed runs. I would be very surprised to see the Bills use him in that way again this week unless they are pressed in a close game late.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The Bills are extremely likely to take control of this game early on. The Bills are likely to be aggressive early in the game in an attempt to knock out their opponent early in the game and let them rest some key players for the last quarter or more of a game they are favored to win by three scores. The Bills are also likely to throw often in an effort to limit Allen’s hits on running plays which, combined with the high pass rate of the Jets, should result in a first half with high play volume and potentially high scoring (at least on the Bills side).

The Jets will attack in a more horizontal and short-area fashion early in this game but will progressively be forced to be more aggressive down the field. The Bills pass rush and secondary are likely to tee off on Zach Wilson early in the game, although if they smash early as expected, it would not be surprising to see some solid second-half production from the Jets passing game against Buffalo’s backups.

scenarios:

• Buffalo must win to clinch the AFC East. 
• If they lose, they can drop as low as the 6-seed.
• If they win, they can jump as high as the 2-seed if the Bengals and/or Chiefs lose.
  • The Bills will know the results of those games prior to kickoff.
• Both teams should be playing this game like a normal game, with the Jets trying to maintain momentum into the off-season.

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DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>

• The nature of the San Francisco offense hinges significantly on the health and availability of Jimmy Garoppolo. 
• These teams played earlier this season, with San Francisco leading wire-to-wire in a 31-10 victory.
• These teams have very different offensive approaches in terms of pace and play calling, but both are very effective.
• Both teams need a win to maximize their playoff situations, making this close to an actual playoff game.

How san francisco Will Try To Win ::

The big question for the 49ers this week surrounds the health of Jimmy Garoppolo, who has a torn tendon in his right thumb (his throwing hand). This, understandably, makes playing quarterback in the NFL very difficult. Throwing the ball becomes harder, but there is also the dynamic of taking snaps, ball handling on handoffs and fakes, and taking hits. Jimmy has been throwing in practice this week and reportedly looks pretty good, but there is a difference between a controlled environment and a live game when that thumb will take some hits early and often. If Garoppolo is not able to play, Trey Lance will start again. Lance has struggled twice this season but looked better in the second half last week against the Texans as he led the 49ers to a victory.

When evaluating San Francisco, the reality is that they will either be playing with a raw, athletic quarterback who has been inconsistent and underwhelming in his first two starts, or they will have a quarterback who was already a game manager that they will now have to take extra care to protect and preserve. Either scenario calls for a run-heavy game script, as the 49ers will try to slow the game the way their 28th ranked situation-neutral pace has done to opponents all season. In the first meeting of these teams, the 49ers ran the ball 44 times compared to only 19 pass attempts. While that tells one story, the reality is they were not very effective (averaging only 3.2 yards per carry on 37 running back attempts) and were only able to maintain that high run rate because of the big lead they built due to the Rams offensive struggles (which we will get to shortly). The Rams defense is no joke, ranking top-5 against both the run and the pass, and Aaron Donald can single-handedly ruin a game for an offense. The 49ers will definitely lean into their running game and perhaps would be most effective doing so with Lance under center to act as another threat to the defense with his legs. When the 49ers do throw the ball, they will likely look to find ways to get the ball in the hands of their elite playmakers (Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk), who can change a game in a blink with their ability to break tackles and outrun defenders. The method by which the 49ers attack through the air will change dramatically depending on who is under center, as Jimmy throws mostly underneath and over the middle of the field while Lance is able to make more throws to the perimeter and down the field.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

Los Angeles is a top-5 team in terms of both pass rate and pace of play. They have a division title and multiple home playoff games riding on this game, so I would expect them to lean into “what got them here” by continuing to play to their strengths. This is especially true against a 49ers team whose secondary has been ravaged by injuries and COVID recently. Four of San Francisco’s top five cornerbacks are currently on the COVID list, placed there on either Tuesday or Wednesday of this week. The only one left from those top five who are practicing this week is 34-year-old Josh Norman, who is PFF’s 82nd graded cornerback out of 87 players who have played at least 50% of the snaps this season. The 49ers also have one of their starting safeties on the COVID list and another starting safety battling a shoulder injury. This is not good news against a highly efficient Rams passing offense.

All season, the 49ers have been easier to throw the ball on than it has been to run against them. The 49ers also have the 2nd best run defense DVOA in the league due to a great front seven, and with the current state of the secondary, that difference should only grow in terms of “path of least resistance.” The Rams expect Cam Akers back just six months removed from tearing his Achilles, but he should only mix in for 10-15 snaps in his first game back. The 49ers will likely get several of their defensive backs off the COVID list prior to Sunday, but even in that case, they will not have practiced all week. We have seen several times in the past few weeks that players returning from the COVID list often struggle, especially without practice time to get their conditioning back. The sharp thing for the Rams to do would be to take an extremely pass-heavy attack and play at a blistering pace, as playing defensive back in the NFL is not for the faint of heart, and high pass volume and pace would wear those players down very quickly.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The first time these teams played, Matthew Stafford had a couple of early turnovers, and the 49ers took an early lead that allowed them to control the pace of the game and make Los Angeles one-dimensional. That was a Monday night game in San Francisco when the Rams offense was dealing with a lot of unexpected changes – they had just lost Robert Woods to a torn ACL that week in practice, and Odell Beckham Jr. was signed three days before the game. The Rams were also heading into their bye week and playing on the road. This week, the Rams enter the game on a five-game winning streak, are at home, and have a division title on the line.

The likeliest game flow here is a close game that ultimately the Rams are slightly more likely to control. Their passing game should be more effective than it was the first time these teams met, and with so much riding on the game and in a home environment, I would expect that the Rams won’t hand the 49ers early control again. The 49ers personnel issues in the secondary continue to be an issue, and they will likely struggle to hold the Rams down because of this, while the 49ers offense has a lot of questions at the most important position right now, making it difficult to expect a high level of offensive output from them. If the Rams can take control, I would expect much more pace and scoring from this game than we saw in the first meeting, which combined for 41 total points and 117 total plays (well below league average), especially with so much on the line.

scenarios:

• Los Angeles must win to secure a division title and the 2-seed.
• San Francisco must win to secure a playoff spot.
• If San Francisco loses, they would still have a chance to get in the playoffs if New Orleans were to lose.
• The only scenario for either team’s motivations to change mid-game would be if Atlanta were to jump out and dominate the Saints, making the game meaningless for San Francisco. This is an unlikely outcome in that game, meaning we should expect both teams to give everything they have.

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Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>

• These teams are very different now than they were a couple months ago when Arizona beat Seattle 23-13 on the road.
• This game may quietly have the most offensive upside of any game on the slate.
• Both teams are playing at a fast pace and throwing often recently.
• Motivation is there on both sides, as Arizona has a lot to play for and Pete Carroll would love to play spoiler.

How seattle Will Try To Win ::

Despite some inconsistent results, these are not the Seahawks that the public often perceives as a team that pounds the ball and plays at a slow pace. Seattle is 10th in the league in situation-neutral pace this year, increasing their no-huddle rate and general offensive tempo significantly from past years. Also of note, the Seahawks ranked 6th in the league in situation-neutral pass rate from Weeks 10 through 16. Week 9 was the Seahawks bye week and Russell Wilson returned after that, while in Week 17, the Seahawks went to a run-heavy approach as they throttled an overmatched Lions defense in a home game with sloppy weather. Other than that, Russ has been letting it rip a bit, with the added caveat being that they have had some tough matchups and some health issues that have kept them from truly being explosive or effective at many times.

There has been a lot of talk about the Seahawks possibly parting ways with Pete Carroll after this season. This means this could be the final game of a historic run in Seattle for Carroll. On the other hand, this is a chance for the Seahawks to make a statement win to end the season and build into next year, perhaps mending the relationship with Russell Wilson and becoming the offense they should/could have been the last couple of years. I would expect a highly aggressive approach to this game from Seattle in a “nothing to lose, everything to gain” spot. The Cardinals have a very formidable defense against both the run and the pass but have been beatable of late, giving up 25 points per game over the past four weeks. Rashaad Penny has finally emerged as the talented lead back the Seahawks envisioned when they drafted him, and his efficiency of late has unsurprisingly coincided with the Seahawks being more aggressive through the air. Russell Wilson has had some big games in Arizona over the years, and after playing in bad weather the last two weeks, a dome game will be a welcome sight as Russ and the boys look to get cooking one last time to end the season.

How arizona Will Try To Win ::

Arizona leads the league in no-huddle rate and plays at the 7th fastest situation-neutral pace in the league. Also of note, the Cardinals lead the league in situation-neutral pass rate over the last four weeks. The loss of DeAndre Hopkins took a noticeable toll on this offense for a couple of weeks as everyone was forced into new roles. However, the Cardinals seem to have found themselves a bit in a huge win at Dallas last week. Also of note is the return of Kyler Murray’s dual-threat ability, as he has been dynamic as a runner since returning from their Week 12 bye after dealing with ankle and shoulder injuries earlier this season.

The Seahawks defense has given up 27 points per game the last two weeks against the Bears and Lions. Now they face a Cardinals team that is getting its groove back and has a lot on the line. I would expect Arizona to play at a very fast pace and spread out this talent deficient Seattle defense with an aggressive attack. The Seahawks actually have a solid run defense, but run defense metrics don’t necessarily account for having to deal with a dual-threat quarterback like Murray. The Cardinals backfield is beat up right now, with James Conner missing the last two games (he has been back at practice in a limited capacity this week) and Chase Edmonds failing to practice so far this week after handling heavy workloads in Conner’s absence. The Cardinals are likely to put the ball in Kyler’s hands often against a Seattle pass defense that ranks 30th in PFF pass-rush grade and 26th in coverage grade, while also grading poorly in both DVOA and yards per pass attempt. Any way you slice it, the Seattle defense is attacked most effectively through the air and with speed, which fits the Cardinals just right.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The first time these teams played Colt McCoy was the Cardinals QB, the game was outdoors in Seattle, Rashaad Penny played a very small role, and both defenses were healthier and playing at a higher level. This game is likely to be highly competitive and may have the most upside of any game on the slate, in my humble opinion. Arizona is the most likely team to take control of this game, but it would not surprise me if Seattle is able to find some explosive plays early against a familiar opponent. 

Due to the quarterbacks involved, if either team falls behind we can expect them to aggressively try to get back in the game. Arizona is likely to put the game in Kyler Murray’s hands, due to the nature of the matchup and the state of their backfield. Seattle is likely to put the ball in Russell Wilson’s hands, as they have been doing the second half of the year, and they have a chance to play spoiler and make themselves relevant in an otherwise irrelevant season. The prospects of a game between these teams with the ball in the hands of two dynamic players like Kyler and Russell Wilson is extremely exciting. Let’s not forget the game between these two teams in Arizona last year, when the teams combined for 71 points and almost 1,100 yards of total offense. That was early in the year before Kyler got hurt and the Seahawks offense went into a shell. While an output like that may be a pipe dream, something that far exceeds current market perception and expectations is very much in play.

Scenarios ::

• Arizona can win the division if they win and the Rams lose.
• Winning the division would result in at least one home playoff game, as the Cardinals would be either the 2-seed or 3-seed, depending on the outcome of the Bucs game. 
• Arizona has locked up a playoff spot and is currently the 5-seed in the NFC.
• Arizona can’t drop any lower than their current seed.
• Seattle has been eliminated from the playoffs for several weeks.

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XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Sunday Night Football brings us an awesome game as the Chargers visit the Raiders. Whoever wins this game gets into the playoffs, so we have plenty of motivation on both sides – no questions around who’s going to play the full game in this one. The game also has a 49 point total, the highest of Week 18, with the Chargers favored by 3. We can expect both teams to be going all-out here, and for their primary players to be heavily utilized. In a game like this, I personally think there’s less risk of random dudes finding a bigger role unless there’s an in-game injury.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

Los Angeles

On the Chargers side, Austin Ekeler should get all the workload he can handle. I expect his snap count to be higher than the 58% he saw in Week 17, and more in the 70-75% range that we’ve seen earlier in the season (possibly even higher). Ekeler’s pass game role is elite and he’s been getting the goal-line carries that eluded him earlier in his career, making him the strongest skill position play in this game. The Raiders are 9th in run defense DVOA and 25th against the pass, but where they’re most vulnerable in the passing game is in the short areas of the field, right where Ekeler gets his work. Gimme. Behind Ekeler, Justin Jackson should still see a few RB2 snaps, but in this must-win game, I’d expect Jackson’s role to be pretty modest unless the Chargers get out to a huge lead and want to protect Ekeler for the playoffs. At $5,200, I’d be off Jackson unless you want to either bet on an injury to Ekeler or a blowout win.

In the passing game, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are the main wide receivers (duh), with Jalen Guyton and Josh Palmer having moved into something of an even split as the season has gone on (something I wrote about ages ago and was, unfortunately, several weeks too early on). We know the deal with these guys by now: Allen is the short area volume hog, while Mike Williams was moved out of his early-season X receiver role and back to the deep threat route tree that he has spent most of his career in. Allen brings a rock-solid floor but I feel he’s overpriced for his likeliest range of outcomes. We’ll have to see if the field agrees or not. If he’s highly owned, I would aim to be underweight, but if the field overlooks him because of his price, he still definitely has upside. Williams brings a theoretical high ceiling but he’s only exceeded 15.3 DK points twice since Week 5, which is when he was moved out of the X receiver role, but at $7,200, I feel like his upside easily justifies his price – just know that his floor is also quite low. And speaking of low floors, Guyton and Palmer both have floors of zero, but they also have significantly more upside than the kickers they’re priced near. Personally, I prefer Palmer as the receiver whose role has been growing throughout the season. Either one is viable here in tournaments and neither should be considered safe for cash. I will have more Palmer than Guyton exposure in my MME builds. At tight end, Donald Parham was placed on injured reserve but that did not lead to a large increase in workload for Jared Cook, as he saw 63% of the snaps in Week 16 which is just slightly above his season average. I view Cook as a higher floor but lower ceiling play compared to Guyton and Palmer, and he’s also more expensive, but that whole “middle of the field” weakness of the Raiders plays to the Chargers attacking them with tight ends. To go back to the rankings, I’d go Palmer, then Cook, then Guyton in tournaments. Cook will be backed up by Stephen Anderson, who played 78% of the snaps last week and saw one target, and then Tre McKitty, who played 52% of the snaps and saw three targets. Both can be considered as MME punt plays.

Las Vegas

On the Raiders side, Josh Jacobs is listed as questionable but got in limited practices all week and thus seems likely to play. Jacobs seems to be in and out of games frequently with little injuries and thus has only seen 20+ carries twice this year and has only hit the 100-yard bonus once, but his passing game role has been relatively solid with at least three targets in every game but two this year. The Chargers are dead last in run defense DVOA, and so we can expect the Raiders to run the ball as much as possible (and as much as the game script allows for). Jacobs feels underpriced to me at $7,800, as while he isn’t quite a full-fledged bell cow, he is extremely likely to see at least 18 running back opportunities with several of them being targets in a fantastic matchup. Behind Jacobs, Peyton Barber should steal a handful of carries and a target or two, while passing-game specialist Jalen Richard has actually been out-targeted by Barber since making his return in Week 15. Barber gets the “RB2 in Showdown” exposure level (which for me is about 8-10% of my MME entries), while Richard can be considered a thin punt option.

In the passing game, the big question is if Darren Waller returns. Waller is questionable and appeared like he might have been ready to come back in Week 17 until being put on the COVID list. He cleared the protocols in time to get in some practice sessions so this isn’t a “he didn’t practice all week but he’s active” situation. If he plays, I expect he’ll be ready to rock. My guess is that given the importance of the game, he’ll be in, which obviously puts a dent in all of the other Raiders pass-catchers as his 8.4 targets per game leads the team. If he plays, he’s really the WR1 of this offense, and he would reduce all of Zay Jones, Bryan Edwards, DeSean Jackson, and Foster Moreau to MME-only plays in my eyes. Hunter Renfrow is the other Las Vegas receiver who is viable no matter Waller’s status (Renfrow has smashed several times with Waller playing beside him). We know the deal with Renfrow by now: he’s Las Vegas’s version of Keenan Allen, vacuuming up short-area targets at high volume. Renfrow is a full $2,000 cheaper than Allen, leading me to prefer him to Keenan. Zay Jones has earned himself a real role with this team, and while that role would be dinged a bit by Waller’s return, I think it’s still a solid one with 34 targets in the last four weeks (and strong performance on those targets as well). Jones is in that salary wasteland range, slightly cheaper than Mike Williams and more than Jared Cook, and players in that price range tend to end up under-owned. As uncomfortable as it sounds, I want to be overweight on him. Edwards and Jackson are tourney-only plays as both are highly volatile and neither have had many “boom” performances. Of the two, I prefer Jackson, as he tends to at least earn targets when he’s on the field, while Edwards just runs wind sprints down the sideline on every play. Foster Moreau is an MME punt play if Waller is active, and an extremely strong on-paper option if Waller misses, as at $2,600, he’s the cheapest full-time player in the game (besides Edwards, who is a full-time sprinter but does very little else). 

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Memberships remaining :: 53*

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Outlook

The way this game should play out is a close-fought affair. The Raiders are likely to prefer to keep the ball on the ground, to take advantage of the matchup and keep it out of Justin Herbert’s hands, so the thing likeliest to drive a different outcome is if the Chargers get out to a multi-score lead that forces more aerial aggression out of Las Vegas. It’s worth noting here that the Chargers are catching the Raiders at a time when Derek Carr has looked pretty atrocious, having not exceeded 12.52 DK points in his past FIVE games and with five interceptions against just four touchdowns in that span. The Raiders have also scored 17 or fewer points in four of those five games. Obviously, missing Daren Waller is a relevant factor here, but worth noting because if Waller misses, we could potentially see Las Vegas really struggle once again. 

Normally, this is where I talk about other scenarios of how the game could play out, and of course, there are different ones, with the most likely one to me being the Chargers just stomping on the Raiders. But frankly, I think the most likely option is a relatively close game and I expect ownership will be pretty reasonably distributed between the run and passing games (i.e. the old “flip the script of betting on touchdowns coming where the field isn’t expecting” doesn’t seem especially viable here). 

Cash Games

In cash games, my player pool consists of the quarterbacks and running backs, the kickers, Moreau (if Waller is out), and then if you need a mid-range play, I’d look to someone like Jones (if Waller is out) or Palmer. 

Tournaments

In tournaments, I want to be overweight captain on Ekeler, Jacobs, Waller, and Mike Williams.

Some groups to consider

• At most 1 kicker
• At most 1 defense
• Pair captain pass catchers with their QBs (or consider boosting the QB if using a captain receiver if you don’t want 100% exposure to this pairing – discussed in further detail in the 2020 update to my Advanced Showdowns course)
• If using an RB captain, apply a negative correlation to the opposing defense and kicker (you can see how to do so in my FantasyLabs tutorial video)
• Pair captain QBs with at least 2 pass catchers
• If Ekeler captain, no Jackson (unless building a 5-1 Chargers onslaught)
• At most 1 of Barber and Richard
• At most 1 of Edwards and Jackson
• At most 1 of Guyton and Palmer (or, at most 2 of Guyton, Palmer, and Cook)