Chargers (

23.75) at
Patriots (

17.75)

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• The Chargers are coming off a huge win over the Broncos and will lock up a playoff spot with a win, although they will still have an 84% chance of making the playoffs if they lose.
• The Chargers could end up anywhere from the 5th to 7th seed in the AFC, with the 5th seed being highly coveted to avoid the Bills or Ravens in the opening round.
• Los Angeles running back Gus Edwards has been ruled out, but J.K. Dobbins may return from injured reserve.
• Patriots QB Drake Maye has 18+ fantasy points in seven of his ten starts this season.
• Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson fumbled for the seventh time this season in Week 16 and his workload may take a hit because of it.

How los Angeles Will Try To Win ::

The Chargers are on the verge of a playoff berth in their first season under Jim Harbaugh. There is a lot to be decided during the last two weeks, however, as they could be the 5, 6, or 7 seed in the AFC, and that distinction will be very important for them. If Los Angeles can get the 5-seed, they will face the Texans in the first round in a very winnable game. If they are the 6 or 7 seed, they would travel to Buffalo or Baltimore and have to immediately face one of the strongest teams in the league in a hostile environment. A look at the Chargers schedule shows that their nine wins have come mostly against weaker opponents, with the two wins over the Broncos and a road win over the now-benched Kirk Cousins and the Falcons being the only wins that really stand out. As such, winning these last two games and potentially getting a softer matchup for the opening round of the playoffs would be huge.

All through the offseason, Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman talked about how they wanted the identity of this team to be defense and the running game. Mixed reviews on that so far, as they rank 17th in rushing offense DVOA and 25th in yards per rush attempt. Their offensive line play has been inconsistent and their running back room is arguably among the least talented in the league, while also dealing with injuries throughout the season. Veteran RB Gus Edwards is out for this game after having his best outing of the season in Week 16. However, J.K. Dobbins may return from injured reserve this week just in time. Explosive, but inconsistent, rookie RB Kimani Vidal will be involved as will veteran journeyman Hassan Haskins who had the game-sealing TD last week against Denver. The Chargers pass rate is higher than they’d like it to be, in large part because of the lack of effectiveness they’ve had, but this week they face a Patriots run defense ranked 28th in DVOA. They may not have a massive output from their running game, but they should at least be able to keep moving the ball forward and setting up shorter down and distance situations. That will likely allow them to extend drives and get into scoring territory early and often against New England’s defense, which is the 7th worst in the league in 3rd down defense.

When Los Angeles does throw the football, we can expect to see a lot of rookie WR Ladd McConkey. The Patriots are near the top of the league in man coverage rate and McConkey has been excellent in those matchups. He ranks 5th in the league in PFF receiving grade against man and averages nearly twice as many fantasy points per route run against man than he does against zone. The Patriots do have a shutdown CB in Christian Gonzalez, but he does not travel into the slot often if at all, which should just work to funnel even more work to McConkey as he runs roughly 2/3 of his routes from the slot. Given the matchup, circumstances, and state of the Chargers backfield, we could be looking at a career game for the rookie. To sum up the Chargers offensive approach this week, we are likely to have an extremely high rate of targets for McConkey and then the ball spread around to a lot of other players through the running game and passing game. Expect a few downfield shots from Herbert as well, which will almost certainly be directed to the side of the field opposite Gonzalez.

How new england Will Try To Win ::