XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 17 is Showdown Party City with games on Christmas and Saturday. Can’t wait! The first game of the week has the Chiefs visiting the Steelers for a game with a 42.5 point total and Kansas City favored by 2.5. As we’ve discussed in multiple Chiefs Showdown writeups all season, they aren’t really an elite-tier offense anymore. They’re not bad at 23.7 points per game, which is slightly above average, but this is no longer the “Patrick Mahomes throws all over the place and crushes” Chiefs team of years past. Instead, they’re primarily winning based on their defense, which is allowing just 18.5 points per game (3rd lowest in the league), and on a penchant for eeking out close games. Also important to note is that if the Chiefs win this game they clinch the 1 seed, so no reason not to expect them to go all-out here.

PITTSBURGH

On the Steelers side, Jaylen Warren has out-snapped lead back Najee Harris for three straight games. Two of these were losses in which Pittsburgh trailed for most of the game, but one was a win against the Browns. Najee’s the main guy here in positive game scripts but with the Chiefs being the better overall team and also effectively impenetrable to opposing rushing (just 4 YPC allowed), it’s hard to think Warren doesn’t give the Steelers a better chance to win here. Warren’s floor and ceiling are also boosted, of course, by his strong passing game role. Najee can still spike (and has multiple games this season of 5-6 targets of his own), so he belongs in player pools. I think there’s a decent chance that Warren actually comes in at higher ownership in this one, which makes the guy with the goal-line role interesting from a contrarian standpoint. Overall, though, I prefer Warren this week. Cordarelle Patterson is also hanging around and stealing a handful of touches and we know his deal: lots of per-play upside, some schemed usage around the goal line, not a lot of volume. He’s a punt option.

In the passing game, the Steelers are expected to get George Pickens back, which could not come at a better time as their passing attack has been stuck in neutral without him. Pickens makes the whole thing work because defenses have to respect him and that opens up opportunities for other guys as well. While the Chiefs are absolutely elite against the run they’ve only been average-ish against the pass, allowing roughly league average passing yards per game and yards per pass attempt, which gives us some semblance of hope for the Steelers offense. Pickens is the crown jewel here and the best skill position play in the game. Behind him…well, it’s a carousel. Van Jefferson and Calvin Austin play meaningful snaps and then 2 out of 3 of Mike Williams, Scotty Miller, and Ben Skowronek should fill in the rest. Jefferson is on the field a fair bit but does very little – he’s averaging just 2.3 targets per game (that includes three games without Pickens, mind you) and has only hit double-digit DK points once. It’s worth noting that Jefferson is tied with Pickens for the most targets inside the 10 yard line with 7, so if that trend continues it at least gives him some touchdown equity. Calvin Austin is the better play and will also be the more popular play as we’ve already seen multiple ceiling games from him with Pickens on the field. He has tons of big play ability (and perhaps Pickens being back will open up more opportunities for him to hit one). The other three are all punt options and relatively thin ones at that. They’re all playing 20-35% of the snaps and can be projected for just 1-2 targets.

At tight end, Pat Freiermuth has been making a bit of a late-season surge to try and reward anyone who was patient enough to draft and hold him through this lost season. Muth went three games in a row with touchdowns and double-digit DK points, which at his price would do nicely, before failing to find paydirt last week against Baltimore. His volume has been sporadic all season long, bouncing between 2 and 7 targets per game while averaging just 4. He doesn’t have a ton of yardage upside so he probably needs a touchdown to pay off. The bad news here is that he only has 4 targets inside the 10 yard line on the season. TE2 Darnell Washington looked like he was making a bid to usurp Freiermuth a few weeks ago but has disappeared from the offensive game plan with just 2 targets in the past four games. He can still be included in player pools as a punt option as can TE3/touchdown vulture MyCole Pruitt, but you’re drawing thin here. Overall this passing offense really centers on Pickens and it gets really thin/spread out after him. I’d be aggressive in using limits to prevent too many secondary Steelers pieces from being paired together as the lack of volume makes it highly unlikely several of them are going to hit together.

KANSAS CITY

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

The more exciting game of the Christmas duo, this one has the Ravens at the Texans for a 47.5 total game with Baltimore favored by 3. The big news is of course the injury to Tank Dell, who dislocated his kneecap and was hospitalized. That leaves Houston awfully thin at wide receiver once more, which has been a trend this season, going into a critical game against one of the best teams in the league. Yikes. 

HOUSTON

On the Texans side, their run game runs into an absolute brick wall as the Ravens defense has been the best in the NFL against opposing run games, both on an efficiency basis (just 3.6 yards per carry) as well as a volume basis (just 83 rushing yards per game allowed). Mixon has had some huge games this year – a whopping six games of 25+ DK points (ok, one was 24.9, sue me), but it’s noteworthy that all of those games have come against teams who are below-average at stopping the run. With Dell hurt and the receiving corps in shambles, I expect the Texans will try to get Mixon going as much as they can. If he’s able to find room they’ll be happy to ride him but the odds of him finding a lot of room are fairly low. I do expect his passing game role to spike here, though. Mixon is a capable receiver who is already averaging 4 targets per game on the season and I’d be shocked if he doesn’t get at least 5 here. There’s an interesting ownership angle to consider here if you want to play Mixon, which is that with a 2-game Christmas slate as well, he’s going to project for lower ownership on one or the other slate. I’m not sure which yet, but once our ownership is up, I’d consider leaning more heavily into Mixon on whichever slate has less ownership (if you want to invest here at all, that is). RB2 Dare Ogunbowale has one of the smallest backup roles in the league – he racked up some opportunities in the three games Mixon missed early in the year but has just 20 total opportunities in the 12 games in which Mixon has been healthy. RB3 Dameon Pierce is more of a direct backup to Mixon than Ogunbowale, and should Mixon get hurt, it’s Pierce who I think steps into the bigger role on the ground (though an injury would open things up more for Ogunbowale in the passing game, which, especially if the Texans are losing, could well be more valuable). 

In the passing game, we should see Nico Collins get all the work he can handle while some combination of Xavier Hutchinson, Robert Woods, John Metchie, and perhaps Jared Wayne play the rest of the wide receiver snaps. Nico is obviously going to project as an obvious smash play as one of the NFL’s best receivers going up against a defense facing the NFL’s 2nd-highest opposing passing play percentage at 63.6%. The Ravens are giving up a ton of passing volume despite being roughly average against opposing passing on a per-play basis (6.8 yards per pass attempt allowed, league average is 6.6). Nico is always a great play and is likely to be the highest owned skill position player on the slate (I bet Lamar is higher, Nico 2nd overall). It’s worth noting that the Baltimore pass defense has tightened up lately, though after allowing an insane 295 passing yards/game in their first 10 games they’ve held their last five opponents to just 175 yards/game. Now, they’ve played the Eagles, Chargers, Giants, and Steelers (twice) in that span – not exactly a murderer’s row of passing offenses – but they’ve also legitimately looked better. So, while I view this as a favorable matchup, I think it isn’t quite as soft as it looked in the season’s first half. Nico’s still a great play but at expected very high ownership there is at least a case to be made for avoiding him beyond “well, football’s weird.” I’ll be playing him though because, well…Nico forever. For the rest of the guys, Metchie and Woods stand out as the top options to me. Since earning a real role in Week 8, Metchie has 24 targets in seven games. Not elite, obviously, but he’s at least earning a role. Woods is a veteran who can run nice routes but has very little upside at this point in his career with only 1 catch over 20 yards on the season. At $4,800 he’s a bit overpriced for what is basically a floor play – he’s priced near the kickers but I think has only a modest chance of outscoring them. Hutchinson has struggled to earn targets all year even when given the opportunity and is someone I would view only as a punt option.

At tight end, we should expect Dalton Schultz to be heavily involved and I’d bet on him to be 2nd on the team in targets behind Nico. Schultz has had a disappointing season but he does have 2 touchdowns in his last three games. At $5,200 he’s priced near the kickers but I believe he’s a favorite to beat them. He’s underpriced without Tank Dell and is someone I view as a core piece in this Showdown. TE2 Cade Stover is expected to return after having his appendix taken out and should come back to a modest volume role that has resulted in ~1.5 targets per game. 

BALTIMORE

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Thursday night brings the Seahawks to Chicago to take on the Bears in a 42.5 total game (noticeably bet down from 45.5 at open) with Seattle favored by 3.5. Looks like Vegas is leaning to this one being low scoring. And maybe that’s right, but I think there are paths to more upside that are viable as well. 

CHICAGO

On the Bears side of things, D’Andre Swift has a robust running back role, though Roschon Johnson is back to be a vulture threat. Swift has a stranglehold on the overall rushing work but faces significant game script risk as he often gets phased out when Chicago falls behind (except when we take an under and they’re facing the Vikings, oddly). With modest passing game work, he fits best on rosters built around the Bears winning the game or at least keeping it competitive. At $7,600, he brings a lot of ceiling for his price and while his floor is modest, I think it’s worth the risk of taking an overweight position. Johnson has a modest RB2 role that has only averaged about 4 carries per game but he notably has gotten a ton of work close in, as he’s tied with Swift with 9 carries each inside the 5 yard line. He’s priced at a point where a single goal line rush for a score isn’t likely to get him into winning lineups but it wouldn’t take much more than that if he gets a catch or two and another couple of carries. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, Caleb Williams continues to put up strong fantasy performances in losing efforts with at least 26 DK points in 3 of his last 5 games. If the Bears fall behind, volume should be there for Caleb but it is worth noting that their last five games have come against the Lions twice, the Vikings twice, and the 49ers – they’ve had a pretty rough stretch of schedule and gave up 30+ points in 4 of those 5 games. It’s likely that their defense holds Seattle to a more modest score, which could put a damper on Caleb’s passing volume if the Bears decide to try to be more run-balanced. Fortunately for us, Chicago runs an extremely tight receiving corps with DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze at wide receiver and Cole Kmet at tight end playing almost all of the offensive snaps. Marcedes Lewis, a blocking tight end, plays a modest role and then Collin Johnson, Tyler Scott, and Gerald Everett play a handful of snaps here and there and are nothing but (very) thin punt options. The offense has really flowed through Moore and Allen. Moore has a robust 25.6% target share (and has run a route on every single Caleb dropback this season, which is kind of nuts). The Bears are really focused on getting the ball in his hands with room to run as his aDOT is only 7.8 yards, but then he’s 5th in the NFL with 432 yards after the catch. Allen actually has a higher aDOT of 9.7 yards and an elite target share of 27.9%. Moore is more explosive as Allen is aging, but the volume is on Allen’s side and he’s been incredibly consistent all season long. Odunze is Chicago’s deep threat with a lower target share but a healthy 13.8 ADOT and 31.5% of the team’s air yards, while Kmet has become something of an afterthought in this offense with just an 11.1% target share (3.6 per game). Phew. Kmet’s upside in this offense is minimal as he’s often just forgotten about in games and he isn’t even used in a traditional tight end role in the red zone – he’s last of the four major receivers in red zone targets by a wide margin (8 targets red zone targets, while Allen is 2nd to last with 14). He’s cheap enough that he should still be in player pools because it doesn’t take much for him to outscore the kickers he’s priced around, but the floor here is low. Allen and Moore are the primary guys and the two I would want to invest most heavily in, while Odunze is in the middle pricing-wise and also usage-wise. Odunze is similar to Kmet except better – his floor is low (but higher than Kmet’s) while his ADOT gives him a robust ceiling. 

SEATTLE

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• The Chargers are coming off a huge win over the Broncos and will lock up a playoff spot with a win, although they will still have an 84% chance of making the playoffs if they lose.
• The Chargers could end up anywhere from the 5th to 7th seed in the AFC, with the 5th seed being highly coveted to avoid the Bills or Ravens in the opening round.
• Los Angeles running back Gus Edwards has been ruled out, but J.K. Dobbins may return from injured reserve.
• Patriots QB Drake Maye has 18+ fantasy points in seven of his ten starts this season.
• Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson fumbled for the seventh time this season in Week 16 and his workload may take a hit because of it.

How los Angeles Will Try To Win ::

The Chargers are on the verge of a playoff berth in their first season under Jim Harbaugh. There is a lot to be decided during the last two weeks, however, as they could be the 5, 6, or 7 seed in the AFC, and that distinction will be very important for them. If Los Angeles can get the 5-seed, they will face the Texans in the first round in a very winnable game. If they are the 6 or 7 seed, they would travel to Buffalo or Baltimore and have to immediately face one of the strongest teams in the league in a hostile environment. A look at the Chargers schedule shows that their nine wins have come mostly against weaker opponents, with the two wins over the Broncos and a road win over the now-benched Kirk Cousins and the Falcons being the only wins that really stand out. As such, winning these last two games and potentially getting a softer matchup for the opening round of the playoffs would be huge.

All through the offseason, Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman talked about how they wanted the identity of this team to be defense and the running game. Mixed reviews on that so far, as they rank 17th in rushing offense DVOA and 25th in yards per rush attempt. Their offensive line play has been inconsistent and their running back room is arguably among the least talented in the league, while also dealing with injuries throughout the season. Veteran RB Gus Edwards is out for this game after having his best outing of the season in Week 16. However, J.K. Dobbins may return from injured reserve this week just in time. Explosive, but inconsistent, rookie RB Kimani Vidal will be involved as will veteran journeyman Hassan Haskins who had the game-sealing TD last week against Denver. The Chargers pass rate is higher than they’d like it to be, in large part because of the lack of effectiveness they’ve had, but this week they face a Patriots run defense ranked 28th in DVOA. They may not have a massive output from their running game, but they should at least be able to keep moving the ball forward and setting up shorter down and distance situations. That will likely allow them to extend drives and get into scoring territory early and often against New England’s defense, which is the 7th worst in the league in 3rd down defense.

When Los Angeles does throw the football, we can expect to see a lot of rookie WR Ladd McConkey. The Patriots are near the top of the league in man coverage rate and McConkey has been excellent in those matchups. He ranks 5th in the league in PFF receiving grade against man and averages nearly twice as many fantasy points per route run against man than he does against zone. The Patriots do have a shutdown CB in Christian Gonzalez, but he does not travel into the slot often if at all, which should just work to funnel even more work to McConkey as he runs roughly 2/3 of his routes from the slot. Given the matchup, circumstances, and state of the Chargers backfield, we could be looking at a career game for the rookie. To sum up the Chargers offensive approach this week, we are likely to have an extremely high rate of targets for McConkey and then the ball spread around to a lot of other players through the running game and passing game. Expect a few downfield shots from Herbert as well, which will almost certainly be directed to the side of the field opposite Gonzalez.

How new england Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike Johnson >>

• Denver will lock up a playoff spot in the AFC with a victory.
• Rain is likely in Cincinnati for this game, although we won’t know the amount, severity, or duration of what to expect until closer to kickoff.
• The Bengals still have an outside shot at a playoff berth if they win both remaining games and have a few other outcomes work in their favor.
• This game will feature a battle of strength vs. strength as the elite Denver secondary tries to slow down Cincinnati’s top-ranked passing offense.
• Broncos RB Jaleel McLaughlin is likely to return this week, making Denver’s backfield a three-headed monster once again.

How denver Will Try To Win ::

Denver put themselves on the hot seat a bit with their Week 16 loss to the Chargers, as they now sit in the 7th seed with a two game cushion on the Bengals, Dolphins, and Colts. Theoretically, the Broncos could fall out of the playoffs if they lose their last two games and any of the three aforementioned teams were to win their last two. Obviously, the Bengals are this week’s opponent which adds a level of importance to this game, while the Colts and Dolphins face the downtrodden Giants and Browns and are both favored to win, setting up a situation where if Denver loses this game they could be put into a “playoff situation” in Week 18 where they must win to get in. The good news for Denver is their Week 18 opponent is the 15-1 Chiefs who just clinched the #1 seed in the AFC and are likely to rest several key players in the final game of the regular season. That knowledge provides a level of security for Denver’s peace of mind, but they could still get as high as the 5th seed if they win both remaining games which would give them an optimal first round matchup against the reeling Texans. All of that is a long way of saying Denver will be approaching this game with everything they’ve got and essentially treating it like a playoff game.

The matchup for Denver’s offense is very good against a Bengals defense that has struggled most of the season. Recent performance shows that Cincinnati has produced a lot of sacks and turnovers, but their last three opposing QBs were Cooper Rush, Will Levis, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson. During their five games prior to that, mostly against more respectable QBs and offenses, they were allowing 35 points per game. Speaking of opponent dependent units, the Broncos have had a soft recent schedule of opponents and are averaging 33 points per game over their last five outings. What does this all tell us? The Bengals are, by most accounts, a below average defense and the Broncos have consistently produced against average to below average defenses.

If we are confident Denver can/should produce against the Bengals, the next step in our analysis is to figure out “how” that production will occur. Denver’s backfield will once again be a three-headed monster with the return of RB Jaleel McLaughlin. Things seem to rotate in terms of which player is featured as they take a “hot-hand” approach and different guys seem to match up better in certain situations. Cincinnati ranks 27th in run defense DVOA and is far from a tough unit to move the ball on in that manner. The Broncos offensive line has been great this season and should generate a strong push and help keep this offense ahead of the sticks. When Denver takes to the air, they continue to spread things around to many different players. WR Courtland Sutton is clearly the alpha on this team and is in position for a strong outing against a Bengals pass defense that has been beatable as well. Denver has five different WRs who run double digit routes on a weekly basis, and three tight ends splitting time as well. Everything comes down to rookie QB Bo Nix, who has been exceptional this season and has particularly thrived in strong matchups like this one. Denver ranks 7th in PROE this season and 5th over the past four weeks, while Nix has shown an ability to make throws to all areas of the field and isn’t afraid to take downfield shots. Denver’s defense is strong enough that they can usually depend on it, but after giving up 34 points to the Chargers last week and facing an elite Bengals offense they are more likely to start this game aggressively pursuing points rather than being cautious and banking on their defense helping them create separation.

How Cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

GAME Overview ::

By MIKE JOHNSON >>

• Arizona was knocked from playoff contention last week when it lost in Carolina to a pesky Panthers team.
• The Cardinals’ backfield has a lot of question marks right now as James Conner and Trey Benson are both uncertain to play with knee and ankle injuries, respectively.
• The Rams are in the driver’s seat in the NFC West and are currently one of the hottest teams in the NFL.
• Rams WR Cooper Kupp has scored less than six fantasy points in three of his last four games.
• These teams met once already this season, way back in Week 2, but the Rams were decimated by injuries and have a far different roster this time around.

HOW ARIZONA WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Arizona’s postseason hopes have been dashed, as the Cardinals blew a game in Carolina against a Panthers team that has a very poor record but has been extremely competitive recently. The Cardinals trailed basically the entire game but were able to score 10 points late in the fourth quarter to force overtime, before stalling offensively and then allowing Carolina to score a touchdown to win it. Back in August, no one really expected the Cardinals to be as competitive this season as they have been, but after heading into their bye week with a 6-4 record, it is certainly deflating for that to be the way they were bounced from contention. There is still a lot to play for, however, as this is only the second season of the Jonathan Gannon era for the Cardinals and they can squeak out a winning record by winning their last two games against the Rams and 49ers.

Arizona’s offense has been built and relied heavily on the running game all season long. We have consistently seen them struggle to move the ball offensively when they face an opponent with a strong run defense that can make them one-dimensional and force long third-down situations, as the Cardinals do not have many players who create quick separation for easy throws and the passing game concepts they use tend to lack creativity. Arizona’s best game of the season was probably the Week 2, 41-10 victory over this Rams team, but that was heavily fueled by a hot start and the Rams getting hammered with injuries. This week, Arizona’s approach will be tested, as workhorse RB James Conner and his primary backup, rookie Trey Benson, are both uncertain to play in this game. The Cardinals’ offensive play-calling has skewed run-heavy most of the year and their primary targets in the passing game have been TE Trey McBride on short and intermediate routes and running backs on schemed looks or dump-offs. Cardinals QB Kyler Murray ranks 28th out of 34 qualifying QBs in average intended air yards per pass attempt. These factors show the conservative nature of the Cardinals’ offense, as most of what they do is through the running game or short passes that are, more or less, an extension of the running game. Murray has also added over 500 rushing yards this season, although his rushing production has been highly variable with seven games of more than 40 rushing yards and seven games of less than 20 rushing yards. 

The Rams’ defense blitzes and gets QB pressure at roughly league-average rates, while the Cardinals’ offensive line ranks sixth in PFF pass-blocking grade. The Rams have had strong defensive outings mainly when they can push around weaker opponents. While Arizona is not elite, the Cardinals are also not a pushover and should be able to give Murray time in this one. The one caveat to that is if Arizona is unable to run the ball as effectively as it would like to, its pass protection may suffer in long down-and-distance situations. The first matchup between these teams saw Murray make several off-script plays, as he broke contain and hit receivers (mainly Marvin Harrison Jr.) downfield against a depleted Rams secondary. Los Angeles is healthier now and it is highly relevant that the Cardinals’ big plays were not due to schematic or coaching advantages. The Rams play the third-highest rate of zone coverage and Harrison’s success this season has been largely against man coverage. He is certainly capable of hitting in this matchup again, but the past performance should not be used as an indicator of future success. The Cardinals will likely not change their stripes this late in the season and will ride their running game and pepper McBride with targets to slowly matriculate the ball down the field.

How LOS ANGELES Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The Bills are getting healthy at the right time; their starting offense is now fully healthy while three injured players on the defensive side of the ball all practiced in some capacity in each practice this week.
• Jets WR Davante Adams (hip), CB Sauce Gardner (hamstring), and OLs Morgan Moses (knee) and Alijah Vera-Tucker (ankle) missed both practices so far this week (as of Thursday). We’ll have to wait until Friday’s injury report to gauge their respective chances of suiting up this week but all four veterans are capable of playing without practicing.
• Buffalo is effectively locked into the #2 seed while the Jets are playing for nothing more than follow-on contracts.
• Since the firing of former head coach Robert Saleh, the Jets rank fourth in pass rate over expectation.
• Until last week’s 21-point outing against the Patriots, the Bills had scored 30 points or more in seven consecutive games since Week 6.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

The Jets have long been eliminated from postseason contention. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers and wide receiver Davante Adams are highly likely to be playing their second to last game together (as long as Adams suits up on Sunday – currently has yet to practice this week with a hip issue), with each player likely playing for their next contract at the tail ends of their respective illustrious careers. There are two interesting aspects of the bond between those two players: Rodgers currently sits at 499 career passing touchdowns and he has been targeting Adams relentlessly since Garrett Wilson’s sideline tirade about not being targeted. Finally, interim General Manager Phil Savage and interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich appear to be auditioning for interviews in the coming offseason. Former head coach Robert Saleh was fired on October 8 ahead of the team’s Week 6 game against the Bills. Since that time, the Jets rank fourth in pass rate over expectation and have had only one game below neutral. Rodgers averaged 34.8 pass attempts per game in that span.

Primary back Breece Hall has seen 19 or more opportunities in nine of 14 games this season but has seen more than 21 opportunities just once since the coaching changes. In other words, Hall appears highly likely to see 19 to 21 opportunities in this spot but remains highly unlikely to see a workload more robust than that range. His elite pass game involvement has kept his ceiling high (two games of 29.1 DK points or more this season but a modest floor has now been reflected in his salary). The matchup on the ground is solid on paper against a Bills defense allowing 2.27 yards before contact per attempt (sixth most), 4.6 yards per carry (ninth most), and 24.3 fantasy points per game (third most) to opposing backfields. Week 16 was the first time since before the team’s Week 12 bye in which Hall returned to a true workhorse role after fighting through a knee injury for the previous month of play.

Allen Lazard returned to the active roster ahead of Week 14, making it now three games with all of Garrett Wilson, Davante Adams, and Lazard on the field together. The target breakdown during that three-game stretch has gone as follows: Adams (35), Wilson (23), Conklin (11 in two games), and Lazard (10). Adams has seen 11 or more targets in six of his last seven games, with two games of 28.9 DK points or more in that stretch. You have to go back to Week 9 against the Texans to find a GPP-viable score from Wilson. One of the primary aspects of this matchup is going to be Buffalo’s ability to get off the field on third down as they now rank near the bottom of the league in most meaningful metrics on third down this season. Adams has 253 of his 719 receiving yards while in New York on third down, clearly operating as Rodgers’ top option when it matters most.

How buffalo Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>

• The most notable injury on the Jaguars is OT Walker Little who was a DNP with an ankle.
• The most notable injury on the Titans is WR Tyler Boyd who was a DNP with a foot.
• The Titans drew the weakest secondary in the league and appear more willing to throw with Mason Rudolph than they were with Will Levis.
• Tyjae Spears played more snaps than Tony Pollard for the first time all season in the past two weeks. He appears to be the lead back, but it’s still a timeshare.
• Chig Okonkwo saw 11/10 targets in the past two games and has a good chance of being the cheap TE of the week.
• The Jaguars have been much more pass happy with Mac Jones under center, but he hasn’t been able to turn that volume into strong fantasy scores.
• The Jaguars backfield has become an ugly timeshare between Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby.
• Brian Thomas Jr. has seen double digits target in each of the past four weeks and has scored over 30 DK points two weeks in a row.

How tennessee Will Try To Win ::

The 3-12 Titans limp into Week 17 having officially benched their franchise QB Will Levis. It’s been a sad year in Tennessee, especially for first year head coach Brian “Clowning” Callahan. Yet another nepotism coach, Brian upped the ante by hiring his father as the O-line coach. Thought of as a bright offensive mind coming out of Cincinnati, Callahan appears to be another OC who benefited from having an elite QB. Many people (including myself) anticipated that the Titans offense would look much like the Bengals offense of the past four seasons. That notion wasn’t just based on Callahan’s pass happy ways with Joe Burrow, but also his personnel decisions. The Titans made no effort to sign Derrick Henry. The move appeared “sharp” initially, since it was assumed, Callahan was going to use shifty Tyjae Spears in the passing game while saving money at RB. That thought was quickly dashed when the Titans gave Tony Pollard the same yearly money Henry took from the Ravens. There aren’t many people who would argue Pollard is a better player than Henry, making the move instantly look silly. The Titans also brought in WRs Calvin Ridley/Tyler Boyd, further reinforcing the idea that they were going to be a passing team in 2024. 

Despite all the roster adjustments indicating the Titans were going to be aggressive, nothing could be further from reality. The Titans favor the run (25^th in PROE) and play at a plodding pace (31^st in seconds per play). It’s hard to be almost dead last in seconds per play when you’re 3-12, showing that despite being consistently behind, the Titans have chosen to run out the clock on themselves. Mike Vrabel/Arthur Smith might have had dinosaur offensive philosophies, but they did get the most out of their O-line, which has fallen apart (26^th ranked by PFF) under Callahan’s father. Even though the Titans have struggled up front, they might be able to hold up against the Jags sorry pass rush (31^st in sack percentage). The Jags have been bad against the run (23^rd in DVOA) and horrific against the pass (32^nd in DVOA). “Horrific” is a kind description for the Jags pass defense. It is dead last in DVOA by a massive margin, so much so that the Jaguars are ranked last in overall defensive DVOA, even though they’re only “bad” against the run. It’d be logical to assume that any coach who isn’t brain dead would have a pass first game plan against the Jags, but in their first matchup, the Titans threw the ball only 32 times and started the game with 10 out of 11 run plays! It makes sense to throw against the Jags, but that’s not how Clowning Callahan saw things in their last matchup. Maybe he learned his lesson? Maybe he is a robot without the ability to learn? It’s hard to be sure. Expect the Titans to come out passing, but don’t be surprised if they decide to clown.

How Jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

GAME Overview ::

By HILOW >>

• Saints QB Derek Carr (hand) and RB Alvin Kamara (groin) did not practice Wednesday while WR Chris Olave returned to a full practice (head).
• The Raiders have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game in the five games without Gardner Minshew this season and average 37.6 pass attempts per game on the season.
• Rookie tight end Brock Bowers needs five receptions to break Puka Nacua’s rookie receptions record and 420 yards (unlikely) to break his rookie receiving yards record.
• The Raiders have not been able to control many game environments this season. Their two wins with Minshew under center resulted in pass attempts of 38 (Ravens) and 24 (Browns) while their lone win with Aidan O’Connell under center resulted in 38 pass attempts (Jaguars). They trailed by 10 in the fourth quarter against the Ravens, were tied 10-10 at the half against the Browns, and led 13-7 at the break against the Jaguars.
• The Saints became the first team all season to get shut out in Week 16 against the Packers (the Texans joined them as the only two teams to not score an offensive point with their 31-2 loss to the Ravens on Christmas).
• Spencer Rattler looks atrocious under center, missing routine throws, unable to diagnose the blitz, unable to diagnose coverages, and quick to develop “happy feet” and dance around the pocket with his eyes not downfield.

HOW LAS VEGAS WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Raiders have been almost entirely unable to run the football this season. Their most capable pure runner, Sincere McCormick, was placed on injured reserve ahead of Week 16 and will miss the rest of the season. That inability to run has forced them into increased passing volume for most of the season, with Las Vegas currently ranked third in pass attempts per game at 37.6 heading into Week 17. O’Connell has pass attempts of 40, 35, and 38 in his three starts this season, with he and Desmond Ridder combining for 37 in Week 14 and Ridder attempting 39 in his full start in Week 15. It is worth noting that all five of those games were losses and the Raiders are currently one-point road favorites, but the consistency of volume through the air in games without Minshew this season has been striking.

With Zamir White and McCormick on injured reserve, the backfield has become a tight two-man timeshare between Alexander Mattison and Ameer Abdullah, with Mattison the primary early-down grinder and Abdullah playing primarily as the change-of-pace and clear passing down option. Abdullah has returned solid fantasy production the last two games behind elite pass volume (19.5 and 19.6 DK points) but he has seen just 10 total carries in that span. Both backs are averaging sub-2.5 yards after contact per attempt while Mattison averages just 3.2 yards per carry this season, making the elite matchup against a Saints team allowing 2.33 yards before contact per attempt and 23.0 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields mean far less.

Nobody on the Las Vegas roster is happer to have Aidan O’Connell back under center than Bowers. O’Connell has started and finished three games for the Raiders this season (Week 6, Week 13, and Week 16). In those games, Bowers has seen 37 targets (10 in Week 6, 14 in Week 13, and 13 in Week 16) on a 37.2% target rate, 0.35 targets per route run, 310 receiving yards, 2.95 yards per route run, a gaudy 40.8% first-read target rate, and 0.64 fantasy points per route run. For context, Jakobi Meyers saw just 15 targets in those games. It is clear that Bowers is O’Connell’s top target. The only blemish on his otherwise stellar ledger was the absence of an end-zone target in those three games, but he returned fantasy scores of 16.1, 33.2, and 20.9 while scoring just one touchdown.

After 11 catches last week against the Jaguars, Bowers needs just five receptions to break Nacua’s rookie receptions record. Although ridiculously unlikely, he also needs 420 yards in the final two weeks to break Nacua’s rookie receiving yards record (1,486). Expect Tre Tucker and Meyers to be on the field for almost every offensive snap, but Tucker saw just seven targets in O’Connell’s three starts and Meyers has been slightly less involved with O’Connell under center (it is worth noting that Meyers missed the team’s Week 6 contest when O’Connell started). 

How NEW ORLEANS Will Try To Win ::

GAME Overview ::

By HILOW >>

• Buccaneers TE Cade Otton (knee) and WR Sterling Shepard (hamstring/foot) have been ruled out for Week 17, leaving only Mike Evans, Jalen McMillan, and Payne Durham as the pass catchers we expect to operate as every-down players in the offense.
• The Panthers have five starting defensive players listed on the injury report for Week 17, with CB Jaycee Horn (doubtful), CB Chau Smith-Wade (out), LB Josey Jewell (out), LB Jadeveon Clowney (questionable), and DE A’Shawn Robinson (questionable) carrying varying degrees of availability.
• Panthers WR Xavier Legette had an interesting week of practice, returning to a full session Wednesday before managing only limited sessions Thursday and Friday, prompting a questionable designation.

HOW CAROLINA WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Panthers have played much better as a team recently, winning or losing by one score or less in six of their previous seven games, failing to do so against only the Cowboys in Week 15. That includes games against these same Buccaneers, the Cardinals, the Eagles, and the Chiefs. They have achieved this through balance on offense and improving quarterback play from Bryce Young. They have also been willing to unleash Young in the right game environments, asking him to throw the football 34 times against the Eagles, 46 times against these Buccaneers, 35 times against the Chiefs, and 37 times against the Broncos. That said, this unit would prefer to remain balanced on offense unless otherwise forced.

Chuba Hubbard was the unsung workhorse of the league during the first half of the season, only to see rookie Jonathon Brooks enter the equation and promptly reinjure his ACL, thusly thrusting Hubbard back into an unsung workhorse role. That has led to some absolutely massive fantasy performances in the right game environments and matchups, this one likeliest to not support that trend. The Buccaneers have allowed just 1.80 yards before contact per attempt, 4.4 yards per carry, and 18.5 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields and are likeliest to control the game environment, meaning we are unlikely to see Hubbard enjoy elite volume and production in this spot.

The Carolina offense has been rooted in 11-personnel all season, with Legette and Jalen Coker now playing as near every-down pass catchers when healthy and Adam Thielen operating in a pure slot role. David Moore has filled in well as the fourth option when the team has dealt with injuries but is likely to revert back to a complementary role should Legette return to the active gameday roster. Legette had an interesting week of practice, getting in a full session on Wednesday before limited sessions Thursday and Friday, leaving his status on Sunday up in the air. Tommy Tremble has operated as the lead tight end when healthy, with rookie Ja’Tavion Sanders playing complementary snaps. Both Jamel Dean and Zyon McCollum are healthy for Week 17 and the Tampa defense has operated as a true slot funnel with them both on the field this season, making Thielen an interesting option as the bulk of his routes originate from the slot.

How TAMPA BAY Will Try To Win ::

GAME Overview ::

By HILOW >>

• Giants WR Malik Nabers (toe) missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday but is reportedly taking the practice field Friday as he attempts to play in Week 17.
• Giants RB Tyrone Tracy (ankle) followed a similar practice schedule this week but is also reportedly set to practice Friday.
• Giants QB Drew Lock is dealing with a shoulder issue but is reportedly on track to start against the Colts.
• Colts QB Anthony Richardson (back/foot) has yet to practice this week and it was Joe Flacco taking all the first-team reps with the ones on Thursday. It certainly appears as if Flacco will be under center for the Colts against the Giants.
• Josh Downs stands out as one of the top point-per-dollar plays on the slate, assuming Flacco starts.

HOW INDIANAPOLIS WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Colts are still alive in the AFC playoff picture. They need to win out and get some help, but they are very much still alive. Both the Chargers and Broncos play on Saturday, so they might have a better idea of where their playoff fate stands entering Sunday. They now appear likely to start Flacco under center as Richardson is dealing with multiple injuries and has yet to practice this week, while it was Flacco taking all reps in practice with the first team. If you remember from earlier in the season, the team followed a similar path when they knew Richardson would not play, making it highly likely we see Flacco under center against the Giants. We saw head coach Shane Steichen change his offense multiple times this season for very specific reasons, meaning it stands to reason that the offense is likely going to look much different with Flacco under center.

Per Rich Hribar on Searching for Ceiling, Jonathan Taylor was the least efficient back in the league with Flacco under center as the offense fundamentally changed. Digging a little deeper, Taylor had a poor 5.9% explosive-rush rate, inflated 64.7% stuffed rate, 0.15 missed tackles forced per attempt, and 11.6 fantasy points per game in the two games played with Flacco under center earlier this season. For context, one of those games came against the Vikings in Week 9, while he hit the century mark against the Bills a week later. As we talked about in recent weeks with the Giants, they are more middle of the road than terrible against the run on a per-rush basis, typically victimized by immense volume against. On the season, the Giants have allowed 1.89 yards before contact per attempt, 4.8 yards per carry, and 22.9 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields.

The Colts have held the highest rush rate over expectation (RROE) since Richardson returned to the starting lineup in Week 11 after ranking 12^th in the league in pass rate over expectation (PROE) in Flacco’s four starts (Week 5, Week 6, Week 9, and Week 10). In those four games, Flacco attempted 44, 38, 27, and 35 passes while throwing multiple touchdowns three times. Downs was healthy in all four games, seeing target counts of (sequential order) 12, nine, nine, and 10 as Flacco’s primary target. Alec Pierce, Michael Pittman (three games), and Adonai Mitchell were all distant afterthoughts with Flacco, seeing 17, 16, and 18 targets in Flacco’s four starts, respectively. Downs had a ridiculous 0.36 targets per route run, 2.43 yards per route run, 33.0% first-read target rate, and 0.56 fantasy points per route run with Flacco under center. Downs sticks out as one of the top point-per-dollar plays at the wide receiver position should Flacco start this week (again, appears likely).

How NEW YORK Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb (shoulder) was shut down for the season, leaving Jake Ferguson, Jalen Tolbert, Brandin Cooks, KaVontae Turpin, Luke Schoonmaker, Jonathan Mingo, Jalen Brooks, and Ryan Flournoy as the remaining pass-catchers.
• Eagles QB Jalen Hurts (concussion) appears unlikely to play while still in the league’s concussion protocol, putting Kenny Pickett in line to start.
• Saquon Barkley needs 268 rushing yards to break Eric Dickerson’s single season rushing record.
• Kenny Pickett targeted A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith on 23 of 24 passes after taking over for the concussed Jalen Hurts last week but failed to lead a touchdown drive after the first quarter (the team scored twice after he took over, one on the drive he took over on a touchdown pass to Brown and one on a two-play drive where Saquon Barkley did everything).
• The Eagles are effectively locked out of the No. 1 seed out of the NFC and could be at risk of resting their players in the second half of Week 17 and in Week 18.

How dallas Will Try To Win ::

The Cowboys have been much more competitive over their previous five games, winning four and losing by a touchdown to the Bengals. They’ve also averaged 27.4 points per game during that five-game stretch after scoring more than 25 points just once with Dak Prescott under center to start the season (a Week 1 blowout win over the Browns). Much of that success can be attributed to a soft schedule that has allowed the team to focus more heavily on the run game (the Panthers, Giants, and Commanders are all bottom four run defenses while the Bengals rank 23^rd), something that may be more difficult to muster against the stout Philadelphia defense (the Eagles are top 10 in rush defense metrics). I would say it is likely the team begins the game with a run-focused offensive approach before making adjustments based on game flow.

Rico Dowdle now has four consecutive games with a 70% snap rate or higher while Week 16 against the stout Tampa Bay rush defense was the first time in five weeks he saw less than 20 opportunities. Even so, he has just one touchdown since becoming the true lead back and has returned a 4x salary multiplier his Week 17 salary just once while seeing no more than three targets in a game during that span. The matchup on the ground is also much more difficult than he has seen in those five games, with the Eagles holding opposing backfields to 1.67 yards before contact per attempt (sixth), 4.3 yards per carry (eighth), and 14.7 fantasy points per game (second). This is a much different spot on paper than the ones he enjoyed during his recent stretch as the alpha.

Alpha wide receiver CeeDee Lamb has now been shut down for the season after struggling through a painful AC joint injury in his shoulder the previous six weeks. That is likely to leave their pass-catching depth chart looking rather sparse, likely consisting of Jake Ferguson, Jalen Tolbert, Brandin Cooks, KaVontae Turpin, Luke Schoonmaker, Jonathan Mingo, Jalen Brooks, and Ryan Flournoy, likely in that order for targets. The level of volume for the pass offense gets a bit murky considering the team’s recent performances, but I would make an educated guess that none of that lot is overly likely to see enough volume to warrant fantasy consideration with Cooper Rush under center and in this matchup.

How philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

GAME Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• This game has the potential for potentially severe rain showers throughout it, which would hurt downfield passing and explosiveness.
• The Dolphins still have an outside chance at a playoff berth if they win both remaining games and have a few other outcomes go in their favor.
• Browns QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson is likely to make another start in this game after an unimpressive 2024 starting debut against the Bengals.
• Dolphins RB De’Von Achane has scored 20+ fantasy points in eight of 11 games with Tua Tagovailoa under center.
• Miami WR Jaylen Waddle returned to practice Thursday after a knee injury that has held him out for nearly two weeks. His status is still uncertain for this game.

HOW MIAMI WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Dolphins are still alive for an AFC playoff berth at the time of this writing, but that could change by kickoff. The Broncos and Chargers both play on Saturday, and if both of those teams win, then Miami will be eliminated from the playoffs. While the Dolphins are still likely to put their best foot forward when they step on the field regardless of that situation, their overall player usage and how aggressive they are with key players who are tending to injuries such as Waddle and Tyreek Hill is something that we need to consider. Waddle is a young cornerstone of the franchise, are they really going to put him out there on a wet field two weeks after sustaining a scary-looking knee injury in a game that can do nothing to alter their season’s outcome? Even Achane, whose slight build and injuries during his rookie season had many questioning if he could hold up to a feature-back role, would be a candidate for having his work scaled back if the game is more or less meaningless at that point. If either of Denver or the Chargers loses on Saturday, then throw all of that out the window. But if Miami is knocked out of the playoffs 24 hours before this game kicks off, then the floor for everyone on the offense becomes significantly lower.

If the weather were to cooperate and Miami is still alive, this would profile as the spot where Tyreek might come back to life. The Browns play near the league high in single-high safety coverage and Hill thrives against those looks historically. You can say the same for Waddle. This version of the Dolphins has worked primarily through Achane and TE Jonnu Smith as the focus has been getting the ball out of Tagovailoa’s hands quickly all season. Miami has not been overly aggressive, but the Browns’ defense does play aggressively and opens themselves up to big plays. That is why Hill would be a great candidate for a bounce-back game here if things lined up. Unfortunately the forecast looks gloomy with rain and wind is likely to play a factor. Tua is a QB who thrives on precision and timing, and while his arm is sufficient most of the time, a spot where footing is tougher and it is harder to drive the ball downfield would not be good for his outlook. The Cleveland offense does not present a very strong threat entering this game, so look for Miami to have a “prove it” mindset where they value ball control through running and short-area passing. It will be a priority of theirs to not “give” away points to the Browns through negative plays that give short fields to Cleveland and let them play from a positive game script. Miami will look to methodically build its lead and count on the Browns’ shaky offensive situation to break down and hand the Dolphins a lead that they can systematically build upon as they slowly apply pressure to a floundering opponent.

How CLEVELAND Will Try To Win ::

GAME Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• Green Bay has clinched a playoff berth but is unable to win its division – effectively locking them into the No. 5- No. 7 range of seeds in the NFC. 
• Minnesota will be the No. 1 seed in the NFC if it can win this week against Green Bay and next week in Detroit.
• These teams met in Week 4, with the Vikings jumping out to a huge lead before holding off a furious comeback from Green Bay in a 31-29 victory.
• Packers WR Christian Watson injured his knee on Monday night and has yet to practice this week, putting his status in doubt.
• Vikings QB Sam Darnold has nine passing touchdowns in his last three games.

HOW green bay WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Packers are in an interesting spot as they are unable to win their division, have clinched a playoff berth, are playing on a short week, but still have a lot to play for. The reason they still have a lot to play for is the huge variance involved in whether they end up as the No. 5, No. 6, or No. 7 seed. Only one game ahead of the Commanders, if Green Bay loses and the Commanders beat the Falcons on Sunday night, then next week those two teams will be vying for the No. 6 or No. 7 seed. Green Bay has had a great season, and the Packers’ only losses this season have come against teams above them in the NFC right now (DET x2, MIN, and PHI). While it is nice that they have “taken care of business” against everyone else, it would be huge for this team to have a signature win heading into the playoffs. Also, if Green Bay can win both remaining games and the Vikings lose their last two games, then the Packers can swipe the No. 5 seed and get to face the NFC South winner in the opening round, rather than traveling to play the Eagles or the red-hot Rams.

The Packers’ approach offensively will be extremely interesting in this spot. Green Bay has been one of the most run-heavy offenses in the league this season and especially of late, riding Josh Jacobs heavily during their recent hot streak. Their only losses since Week 4 both came against the Lions. Jacobs has scored nine touchdowns in the last five games, and the Packers rank 29th in pass rate over expectation (PROE) for the season. What makes this spot interesting is the matchup and context of this game. The Packers gave up 31 points to Minnesota in the first matchup between these teams (28 in the first half) and are dealing with several key defensive injuries. While Green Bay’s natural tendency has been to lean on its running game, this week, against the Vikings’ elite run defense, it is hard to imagine the Packers not being forced to throw the ball at a much higher rate than normal. Packers head coach Matt LaFleur is great at scheming and game-planning for matchups, and the savvy thing to do here may be to proactively increase their throw rate by their own will rather than being backed into the corner to do so. Minnesota blitzes more than any defense in the NFL and plays almost exclusively zone coverage. Packers slot WR Jayden Reed has elite metrics against the blitz and is also far more effective against zone coverage than he is against man, making him a prime option to pop in this game. Green Bay WR Christian Watson is likely to miss this game, which means WR Dontayvion Wicks should see a healthy complement of snaps and WR Romeo Doubs and TE Tucker Kraft may have more consistent workloads. The Packers have nothing to lose and a lot to gain, while testing and sharpening their passing game prior to the playoffs against a strong opponent may be the optimal approach for them both for this week and looking ahead.

How minnesota Will Try To Win ::

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Sunday Night Football brings us an exciting game between two teams that need to win. As it stands right now, Washington is extremely likely to make the playoffs, even if they lose, but it’s not guaranteed. The Falcons are currently calculated at a 36% chance to make the playoffs if they lose and an 86% chance if they win (keep in mind I’m writing this on Friday before the Sat/Sun games). It’s safe to say both teams will be motivated in this one. The Commanders are favored by 4 in a 47.5 total game and of course, the big news is Atlanta handing the QB reins over to rookie Michael Penix and benching their expensive bust Kirk Cousins. The Falcons beat the Giants 34-7 in Penix’s debut and he looked alright but not great, completing two thirds of his passes for 7.5 yards per attempt (not bad), though he threw a pick and didn’t manage a touchdown pass. On the road against stiffer competition than New York’s paper-thin defense, a big part of this game is going to be about whether Penix can improve from his debut or if the tougher matchup gives him trouble. 

WASHINGTON

On the Commanders side, Brian Robinson leads the backfield but has struggled to put up significant fantasy scores even on this strong offense. The passing game role he seemed to be building early on the season has collapsed (11 targets in the first four games, but then just 10 more in the next seven games), leaving him as a 2-down back with restricted workloads and a quarterback who is a threat to vulture him. Robinson has only reached the 20-carry mark twice this season and has been held to 12 or fewer carries in 5 of his 12 games, including three wins. As a home favorite, he’s a stronger play than his game logs would indicate but $9k is a very full price. I’ll have some but he’s not a core play for me. With Austin Ekeler still on IR, the RB2 role has been filled primarily by Jeremy McNichols with Chris Rodriguez mixing in here and there. At $2,800, McNichols is a reasonable play but not an especially strong one (you’d need a TD or a Robinson injury), while Rodriguez is a pure punt option. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, McLaurin has been on an absolute tear with 6 touchdowns in his last four games. Just outside of the top 10 wide receivers in PPR fantasy points per game, McLaurin seems to be living up to his potential with Jayden Daniels at quarterback, but it’s worth noting he’s doing so on efficiency and big plays. He’s only hanging out at 6.5 targets/game for a 22.4% target share (and keep in mind this is on an offense with below-average passing volume). He’s getting by because he’s ranked 5th in the NFL in total air yards – he’s getting a lot of deep targets. The Falcons defense is built around keeping things in front of them and preventing big plays (they’re allowing just 9.5 yards per completion, 2nd lowest in the NFL) so this isn’t the best matchup for his skillset. He’s talented enough to hit in any matchup, but I’m ranking him down just a bit here. With Noah Brown hurt, the Commanders are pretty thin behind McLaurin. Olamide Zaccheaus and Dyami Brown have been playing the most snaps and then Jamison Crowder (who is apparently still in the league) has seen his role climb in the last couple of weeks. But…Brown is out this week. Luke McCaffrey has had a disappointing rookie season and has largely disappeared from the offense. He could see a bit more involvement just because the Commanders are so thin at WR, but he’s a scary play given how little he’s done in the NFL this year. Zaccheaus smashed last week with a 5/70/2 line on 8 targets – just be aware it was a 4/21/1 line and then he had a 49 yard broken play. He’s generally a guy with a very limited route tree, and more of a possession receiver, so it’s tough for him to find much yardage upside (this was only his 2nd game of the season over 50 yards). At $6,400, he’s a reasonable play with Brown out but I’m just a little nervous that he’s going to project well and thus become really chalky. At chalk ownership (say, 35% or more), I’m comfortable being underweight here and just crossing my fingers. Crowder is interesting, though. His snaps have already gone from 27% to 46% in the last two weeks, and Brown being out could force him into a nearly full-time role. He scored 2 red zone touchdowns last week so he’s earned trust for these important targets. His yardage upside is modest, but overall I see him as having a pretty similar profile to Zaccheaus, except for half the price.

Speaking of guys who have similar profiles, Zach Ertz…is also similar. Low aDOT, low yardage role but decent touchdown equity and on the field a lot. In a raw points projection, he should probably be a bit ahead of Zaccheaus and Crowder because he’s likely on the field more, but again, all of these guys are fairly similar, so price and ownership should dictate our approach. Finally, John Bates fills a modest TE2 role with a whopping 11 targets on the year. 

ATLANTA

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 17 wraps up with what would have been one of the games of the week if it had been on the main slate as the Lions visit the 49ers. This game has a juicy 50.5 point total with Detroit favored by 3.5. What’s exciting for DFS purposes is that while the 49ers have struggled to score this year (only 22 points per game, which is actually slightly above average, but far less than we’ve become used to seeing in the past few years), the Lions defense is so wrecked by injuries that we might see some offensive works. The Lions, of course, score on everyone, leading the NFL in scoring with a whopping 32.9 points per game. Hopefully, we get a fun one. 

MONDAY UPDATE: LIONS MOTIVATION

I want to touch on the topic of motivation for the Lions here. Detroit is in a weird situation where this game doesn’t matter at all to them, but their Week 18 matchup against the Vikings matters quite a bit in terms of playoff standings and seeding. So the question is, will Detroit rest guys? I don’t really know…I chatted with the OWS brain trust and the general consensus was it would be unlikely to see any large-scale rest situation both because of the kind of coach Dan Campbell is and because it’s Week 17, and we’ve never seen a team do a Week 17 rest, only to play in Week 18. The Lions have nothing to play for tonight beyond pride and “momentum,” but the assumption of rational coaching is a very dangerous thing, and coaches/players tend to think about this stuff differently than we as fans/fantasy players do. But, we could be wrong, and with a lot of ownership projected on key Lions pieces (especially Jahmyr Gibbs) it makes sense to at least consider what happens if we are.

If Detroit takes it easy on anyone, Gibbs is by far the most likely to be scaled back, because with Montgomery out he’s an irreplaceable part of the offense. If he gets scaled back it’s most likely in favor of Craig Reynolds, though it’s certainly possible that we see more of Sione Vaki or Jermar Jefferson. In the passing game it’s less likely we see guys not play because it’s just hard to sit a bunch of pass catchers given the depth available, but we could potentially see more of Allen Robinson (who would be the direct replacement for St. Brown, I think) and/or Tom Kennedy. At tight end, Shane Zylstra could play more if the Lions scale back on Sam LaPorta. Will this happen? No clue – our best guess is no, but if you’re playing a lot of lineups it at least makes sense to consider it as a possibility, or if you have a strong take you want to lean into, we want you to be prepared for how to handle any rest/scale-back situations.

SAN FRANCISCO

On the 49ers side of things, Isaac Guerendo is off the injury report, which should help put their run game back in gear. In Guerendo’s two starts this year he took 31 carries for 131 yards (4.4 YPC) while catching 6 of 6 targets and scoring 2 touchdowns. This offense is a gift to running backs with elite blocking and a great scheme. While Trent Williams being on IR certainly impacts it, as long as they have George Kittle and Kyle Juszczyk, they’ll find ways to be effective. The Lions look like a great run defense but it’s more because of volume than efficiency. They’re only roughly league average against the run on a per-carry basis, they just play from ahead so often that opposing running backs tend to get game scripted out. That is a risk for Guerendo, but the close spread, the heavy reliance of San Francisco on their run game, and Guerendo’s modest $8,400 price all help to mitigate that. He’s not my favorite play in the game but he’s a reasonable option. RB2 Patrick Taylor is way too expensive for his role as he was priced up for lead back duties. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

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In the passing game, Deebo Samuel finally had a good game last week. Yes, really…I know it’s wild. Deebo put up 20 DK points for the first time since Week 6 and looked spry, catching 7 of 9 targets and taking 5 carries for 25 yards. It’s possible Deebo was just in a slump, it’s possible he’s been dealing with some nagging injury, it’s possible he’s just getting older, but whatever the cause it was great to see him have a good game. Now at a wildly cheap-for-him $7,600 we’re faced with a decision…is he back? Because if he is, this price is like $2k too cheap. Or, it could just be one random good game in a bad season. I expect based on brand name he’s going to be extremely highly owned, so he’s a major decision point. I lean that he’s still the same guy we’ve seen for years, and importantly, last week he didn’t just have one fluky big play. He was consistently getting open and catching balls. Even if you believe Deebo is back, Jauan Jennings still deserves consideration as he’s been San Francisco’s most effective wide receiver all season long. Ricky Pearsall rounds out the wide receivers with a large on-field role but he isn’t earning many targets (just 11 targets in the last five games). It’s been a challenge for him to carve out space with the other main guys healthy. He’s on the field enough to be worthy of player pool inclusion as a value option, but nothing really points us to him this week.

Tight end George Kittle is playing almost every single snap and is the season’s overall TE1 with a whopping seven games of 20+ DK points. Dude is an absolute force of nature. Rotational players Chris Conley, Jacob Cowing, and Eric Saubert play minimal snaps but can be considered in MME. Here’s the overall deal with the 49ers pass catching corps: all of these guys are really volatile and have low floors. Kittle has actually shown the highest floor all season with just two games in single-digit DK points but he’s also the most expensive guy. Deebo and Jennings have shown strong ceilings for their prices but plenty of single-digit games as well. Given the state of the Lions defense (they have literally an entire starting team’s worth of players on IR), I see there being an extremely high likelihood that at least 1 of the 3 primary guys is in winning lineups…but I really have no idea who. I’m likely to use an “at least 1” rule here and then let projected ownership guide me, because I can’t really say with any confidence who the best play is among them (or, well, if Deebo really is back, he’s the best price-considered play…but I also suspect he’s going to be the highest owned of the three). 

DETROIT