XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Thursday night brings the Seahawks to Chicago to take on the Bears in a 42.5 total game (noticeably bet down from 45.5 at open) with Seattle favored by 3.5. Looks like Vegas is leaning to this one being low scoring. And maybe that’s right, but I think there are paths to more upside that are viable as well.
CHICAGO
On the Bears side of things, D’Andre Swift has a robust running back role, though Roschon Johnson is back to be a vulture threat. Swift has a stranglehold on the overall rushing work but faces significant game script risk as he often gets phased out when Chicago falls behind (except when we take an under and they’re facing the Vikings, oddly). With modest passing game work, he fits best on rosters built around the Bears winning the game or at least keeping it competitive. At $7,600, he brings a lot of ceiling for his price and while his floor is modest, I think it’s worth the risk of taking an overweight position. Johnson has a modest RB2 role that has only averaged about 4 carries per game but he notably has gotten a ton of work close in, as he’s tied with Swift with 9 carries each inside the 5 yard line. He’s priced at a point where a single goal line rush for a score isn’t likely to get him into winning lineups but it wouldn’t take much more than that if he gets a catch or two and another couple of carries.
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In the passing game, Caleb Williams continues to put up strong fantasy performances in losing efforts with at least 26 DK points in 3 of his last 5 games. If the Bears fall behind, volume should be there for Caleb but it is worth noting that their last five games have come against the Lions twice, the Vikings twice, and the 49ers – they’ve had a pretty rough stretch of schedule and gave up 30+ points in 4 of those 5 games. It’s likely that their defense holds Seattle to a more modest score, which could put a damper on Caleb’s passing volume if the Bears decide to try to be more run-balanced. Fortunately for us, Chicago runs an extremely tight receiving corps with DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze at wide receiver and Cole Kmet at tight end playing almost all of the offensive snaps. Marcedes Lewis, a blocking tight end, plays a modest role and then Collin Johnson, Tyler Scott, and Gerald Everett play a handful of snaps here and there and are nothing but (very) thin punt options. The offense has really flowed through Moore and Allen. Moore has a robust 25.6% target share (and has run a route on every single Caleb dropback this season, which is kind of nuts). The Bears are really focused on getting the ball in his hands with room to run as his aDOT is only 7.8 yards, but then he’s 5th in the NFL with 432 yards after the catch. Allen actually has a higher aDOT of 9.7 yards and an elite target share of 27.9%. Moore is more explosive as Allen is aging, but the volume is on Allen’s side and he’s been incredibly consistent all season long. Odunze is Chicago’s deep threat with a lower target share but a healthy 13.8 ADOT and 31.5% of the team’s air yards, while Kmet has become something of an afterthought in this offense with just an 11.1% target share (3.6 per game). Phew. Kmet’s upside in this offense is minimal as he’s often just forgotten about in games and he isn’t even used in a traditional tight end role in the red zone – he’s last of the four major receivers in red zone targets by a wide margin (8 targets red zone targets, while Allen is 2nd to last with 14). He’s cheap enough that he should still be in player pools because it doesn’t take much for him to outscore the kickers he’s priced around, but the floor here is low. Allen and Moore are the primary guys and the two I would want to invest most heavily in, while Odunze is in the middle pricing-wise and also usage-wise. Odunze is similar to Kmet except better – his floor is low (but higher than Kmet’s) while his ADOT gives him a robust ceiling.
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