GAME Overview ::
By HILOW >>
- Giants WR Malik Nabers (toe) missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday but is reportedly taking the practice field Friday as he attempts to play in Week 17.
- Giants RB Tyrone Tracy (ankle) followed a similar practice schedule this week but is also reportedly set to practice Friday.
- Giants QB Drew Lock is dealing with a shoulder issue but is reportedly on track to start against the Colts.
- Colts QB Anthony Richardson (back/foot) has yet to practice this week and it was Joe Flacco taking all the first-team reps with the ones on Thursday. It certainly appears as if Flacco will be under center for the Colts against the Giants.
- Josh Downs stands out as one of the top point-per-dollar plays on the slate, assuming Flacco starts.
HOW INDIANAPOLIS WILL TRY TO WIN ::
The Colts are still alive in the AFC playoff picture. They need to win out and get some help, but they are very much still alive. Both the Chargers and Broncos play on Saturday, so they might have a better idea of where their playoff fate stands entering Sunday. They now appear likely to start Flacco under center as Richardson is dealing with multiple injuries and has yet to practice this week, while it was Flacco taking all reps in practice with the first team. If you remember from earlier in the season, the team followed a similar path when they knew Richardson would not play, making it highly likely we see Flacco under center against the Giants. We saw head coach Shane Steichen change his offense multiple times this season for very specific reasons, meaning it stands to reason that the offense is likely going to look much different with Flacco under center.
Per Rich Hribar on Searching for Ceiling, Jonathan Taylor was the least efficient back in the league with Flacco under center as the offense fundamentally changed. Digging a little deeper, Taylor had a poor 5.9% explosive-rush rate, inflated 64.7% stuffed rate, 0.15 missed tackles forced per attempt, and 11.6 fantasy points per game in the two games played with Flacco under center earlier this season. For context, one of those games came against the Vikings in Week 9, while he hit the century mark against the Bills a week later. As we talked about in recent weeks with the Giants, they are more middle of the road than terrible against the run on a per-rush basis, typically victimized by immense volume against. On the season, the Giants have allowed 1.89 yards before contact per attempt, 4.8 yards per carry, and 22.9 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields.
The Colts have held the highest rush rate over expectation (RROE) since Richardson returned to the starting lineup in Week 11 after ranking 12th in the league in pass rate over expectation (PROE) in Flacco’s four starts (Week 5, Week 6, Week 9, and Week 10). In those four games, Flacco attempted 44, 38, 27, and 35 passes while throwing multiple touchdowns three times. Downs was healthy in all four games, seeing target counts of (sequential order) 12, nine, nine, and 10 as Flacco’s primary target. Alec Pierce, Michael Pittman (three games), and Adonai Mitchell were all distant afterthoughts with Flacco, seeing 17, 16, and 18 targets in Flacco’s four starts, respectively. Downs had a ridiculous 0.36 targets per route run, 2.43 yards per route run, 33.0% first-read target rate, and 0.56 fantasy points per route run with Flacco under center. Downs sticks out as one of the top point-per-dollar plays at the wide receiver position should Flacco start this week (again, appears likely).
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