Raiders (

19.5) at
Saints (

18)

GAME Overview ::

By HILOW >>

• Saints QB Derek Carr (hand) and RB Alvin Kamara (groin) did not practice Wednesday while WR Chris Olave returned to a full practice (head).
• The Raiders have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game in the five games without Gardner Minshew this season and average 37.6 pass attempts per game on the season.
• Rookie tight end Brock Bowers needs five receptions to break Puka Nacua’s rookie receptions record and 420 yards (unlikely) to break his rookie receiving yards record.
• The Raiders have not been able to control many game environments this season. Their two wins with Minshew under center resulted in pass attempts of 38 (Ravens) and 24 (Browns) while their lone win with Aidan O’Connell under center resulted in 38 pass attempts (Jaguars). They trailed by 10 in the fourth quarter against the Ravens, were tied 10-10 at the half against the Browns, and led 13-7 at the break against the Jaguars.
• The Saints became the first team all season to get shut out in Week 16 against the Packers (the Texans joined them as the only two teams to not score an offensive point with their 31-2 loss to the Ravens on Christmas).
• Spencer Rattler looks atrocious under center, missing routine throws, unable to diagnose the blitz, unable to diagnose coverages, and quick to develop “happy feet” and dance around the pocket with his eyes not downfield.

HOW LAS VEGAS WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Raiders have been almost entirely unable to run the football this season. Their most capable pure runner, Sincere McCormick, was placed on injured reserve ahead of Week 16 and will miss the rest of the season. That inability to run has forced them into increased passing volume for most of the season, with Las Vegas currently ranked third in pass attempts per game at 37.6 heading into Week 17. O’Connell has pass attempts of 40, 35, and 38 in his three starts this season, with he and Desmond Ridder combining for 37 in Week 14 and Ridder attempting 39 in his full start in Week 15. It is worth noting that all five of those games were losses and the Raiders are currently one-point road favorites, but the consistency of volume through the air in games without Minshew this season has been striking.

With Zamir White and McCormick on injured reserve, the backfield has become a tight two-man timeshare between Alexander Mattison and Ameer Abdullah, with Mattison the primary early-down grinder and Abdullah playing primarily as the change-of-pace and clear passing down option. Abdullah has returned solid fantasy production the last two games behind elite pass volume (19.5 and 19.6 DK points) but he has seen just 10 total carries in that span. Both backs are averaging sub-2.5 yards after contact per attempt while Mattison averages just 3.2 yards per carry this season, making the elite matchup against a Saints team allowing 2.33 yards before contact per attempt and 23.0 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields mean far less.

Nobody on the Las Vegas roster is happer to have Aidan O’Connell back under center than Bowers. O’Connell has started and finished three games for the Raiders this season (Week 6, Week 13, and Week 16). In those games, Bowers has seen 37 targets (10 in Week 6, 14 in Week 13, and 13 in Week 16) on a 37.2% target rate, 0.35 targets per route run, 310 receiving yards, 2.95 yards per route run, a gaudy 40.8% first-read target rate, and 0.64 fantasy points per route run. For context, Jakobi Meyers saw just 15 targets in those games. It is clear that Bowers is O’Connell’s top target. The only blemish on his otherwise stellar ledger was the absence of an end-zone target in those three games, but he returned fantasy scores of 16.1, 33.2, and 20.9 while scoring just one touchdown.

After 11 catches last week against the Jaguars, Bowers needs just five receptions to break Nacua’s rookie receptions record. Although ridiculously unlikely, he also needs 420 yards in the final two weeks to break Nacua’s rookie receiving yards record (1,486). Expect Tre Tucker and Meyers to be on the field for almost every offensive snap, but Tucker saw just seven targets in O’Connell’s three starts and Meyers has been slightly less involved with O’Connell under center (it is worth noting that Meyers missed the team’s Week 6 contest when O’Connell started). 

How NEW ORLEANS Will Try To Win ::