GAME Overview ::
By mike johnson >>
- Green Bay has clinched a playoff berth but is unable to win its division – effectively locking them into the No. 5- No. 7 range of seeds in the NFC.
- Minnesota will be the No. 1 seed in the NFC if it can win this week against Green Bay and next week in Detroit.
- These teams met in Week 4, with the Vikings jumping out to a huge lead before holding off a furious comeback from Green Bay in a 31-29 victory.
- Packers WR Christian Watson injured his knee on Monday night and has yet to practice this week, putting his status in doubt.
- Vikings QB Sam Darnold has nine passing touchdowns in his last three games.
HOW green bay WILL TRY TO WIN ::
The Packers are in an interesting spot as they are unable to win their division, have clinched a playoff berth, are playing on a short week, but still have a lot to play for. The reason they still have a lot to play for is the huge variance involved in whether they end up as the No. 5, No. 6, or No. 7 seed. Only one game ahead of the Commanders, if Green Bay loses and the Commanders beat the Falcons on Sunday night, then next week those two teams will be vying for the No. 6 or No. 7 seed. Green Bay has had a great season, and the Packers’ only losses this season have come against teams above them in the NFC right now (DET x2, MIN, and PHI). While it is nice that they have “taken care of business” against everyone else, it would be huge for this team to have a signature win heading into the playoffs. Also, if Green Bay can win both remaining games and the Vikings lose their last two games, then the Packers can swipe the No. 5 seed and get to face the NFC South winner in the opening round, rather than traveling to play the Eagles or the red-hot Rams.
The Packers’ approach offensively will be extremely interesting in this spot. Green Bay has been one of the most run-heavy offenses in the league this season and especially of late, riding Josh Jacobs heavily during their recent hot streak. Their only losses since Week 4 both came against the Lions. Jacobs has scored nine touchdowns in the last five games, and the Packers rank 29th in pass rate over expectation (PROE) for the season. What makes this spot interesting is the matchup and context of this game. The Packers gave up 31 points to Minnesota in the first matchup between these teams (28 in the first half) and are dealing with several key defensive injuries. While Green Bay’s natural tendency has been to lean on its running game, this week, against the Vikings’ elite run defense, it is hard to imagine the Packers not being forced to throw the ball at a much higher rate than normal. Packers head coach Matt LaFleur is great at scheming and game-planning for matchups, and the savvy thing to do here may be to proactively increase their throw rate by their own will rather than being backed into the corner to do so. Minnesota blitzes more than any defense in the NFL and plays almost exclusively zone coverage. Packers slot WR Jayden Reed has elite metrics against the blitz and is also far more effective against zone coverage than he is against man, making him a prime option to pop in this game. Green Bay WR Christian Watson is likely to miss this game, which means WR Dontayvion Wicks should see a healthy complement of snaps and WR Romeo Doubs and TE Tucker Kraft may have more consistent workloads. The Packers have nothing to lose and a lot to gain, while testing and sharpening their passing game prior to the playoffs against a strong opponent may be the optimal approach for them both for this week and looking ahead.
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