XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Week 17 wraps up with what would have been one of the games of the week if it had been on the main slate as the Lions visit the 49ers. This game has a juicy 50.5 point total with Detroit favored by 3.5. What’s exciting for DFS purposes is that while the 49ers have struggled to score this year (only 22 points per game, which is actually slightly above average, but far less than we’ve become used to seeing in the past few years), the Lions defense is so wrecked by injuries that we might see some offensive works. The Lions, of course, score on everyone, leading the NFL in scoring with a whopping 32.9 points per game. Hopefully, we get a fun one.
MONDAY UPDATE: LIONS MOTIVATION
I want to touch on the topic of motivation for the Lions here. Detroit is in a weird situation where this game doesn’t matter at all to them, but their Week 18 matchup against the Vikings matters quite a bit in terms of playoff standings and seeding. So the question is, will Detroit rest guys? I don’t really know…I chatted with the OWS brain trust and the general consensus was it would be unlikely to see any large-scale rest situation both because of the kind of coach Dan Campbell is and because it’s Week 17, and we’ve never seen a team do a Week 17 rest, only to play in Week 18. The Lions have nothing to play for tonight beyond pride and “momentum,” but the assumption of rational coaching is a very dangerous thing, and coaches/players tend to think about this stuff differently than we as fans/fantasy players do. But, we could be wrong, and with a lot of ownership projected on key Lions pieces (especially Jahmyr Gibbs) it makes sense to at least consider what happens if we are.
If Detroit takes it easy on anyone, Gibbs is by far the most likely to be scaled back, because with Montgomery out he’s an irreplaceable part of the offense. If he gets scaled back it’s most likely in favor of Craig Reynolds, though it’s certainly possible that we see more of Sione Vaki or Jermar Jefferson. In the passing game it’s less likely we see guys not play because it’s just hard to sit a bunch of pass catchers given the depth available, but we could potentially see more of Allen Robinson (who would be the direct replacement for St. Brown, I think) and/or Tom Kennedy. At tight end, Shane Zylstra could play more if the Lions scale back on Sam LaPorta. Will this happen? No clue – our best guess is no, but if you’re playing a lot of lineups it at least makes sense to consider it as a possibility, or if you have a strong take you want to lean into, we want you to be prepared for how to handle any rest/scale-back situations.
SAN FRANCISCO
On the 49ers side of things, Isaac Guerendo is off the injury report, which should help put their run game back in gear. In Guerendo’s two starts this year he took 31 carries for 131 yards (4.4 YPC) while catching 6 of 6 targets and scoring 2 touchdowns. This offense is a gift to running backs with elite blocking and a great scheme. While Trent Williams being on IR certainly impacts it, as long as they have George Kittle and Kyle Juszczyk, they’ll find ways to be effective. The Lions look like a great run defense but it’s more because of volume than efficiency. They’re only roughly league average against the run on a per-carry basis, they just play from ahead so often that opposing running backs tend to get game scripted out. That is a risk for Guerendo, but the close spread, the heavy reliance of San Francisco on their run game, and Guerendo’s modest $8,400 price all help to mitigate that. He’s not my favorite play in the game but he’s a reasonable option. RB2 Patrick Taylor is way too expensive for his role as he was priced up for lead back duties.
Showdown Ownership Projections!
Ownership updates automatically
In the passing game, Deebo Samuel finally had a good game last week. Yes, really…I know it’s wild. Deebo put up 20 DK points for the first time since Week 6 and looked spry, catching 7 of 9 targets and taking 5 carries for 25 yards. It’s possible Deebo was just in a slump, it’s possible he’s been dealing with some nagging injury, it’s possible he’s just getting older, but whatever the cause it was great to see him have a good game. Now at a wildly cheap-for-him $7,600 we’re faced with a decision…is he back? Because if he is, this price is like $2k too cheap. Or, it could just be one random good game in a bad season. I expect based on brand name he’s going to be extremely highly owned, so he’s a major decision point. I lean that he’s still the same guy we’ve seen for years, and importantly, last week he didn’t just have one fluky big play. He was consistently getting open and catching balls. Even if you believe Deebo is back, Jauan Jennings still deserves consideration as he’s been San Francisco’s most effective wide receiver all season long. Ricky Pearsall rounds out the wide receivers with a large on-field role but he isn’t earning many targets (just 11 targets in the last five games). It’s been a challenge for him to carve out space with the other main guys healthy. He’s on the field enough to be worthy of player pool inclusion as a value option, but nothing really points us to him this week.
Tight end George Kittle is playing almost every single snap and is the season’s overall TE1 with a whopping seven games of 20+ DK points. Dude is an absolute force of nature. Rotational players Chris Conley, Jacob Cowing, and Eric Saubert play minimal snaps but can be considered in MME. Here’s the overall deal with the 49ers pass catching corps: all of these guys are really volatile and have low floors. Kittle has actually shown the highest floor all season with just two games in single-digit DK points but he’s also the most expensive guy. Deebo and Jennings have shown strong ceilings for their prices but plenty of single-digit games as well. Given the state of the Lions defense (they have literally an entire starting team’s worth of players on IR), I see there being an extremely high likelihood that at least 1 of the 3 primary guys is in winning lineups…but I really have no idea who. I’m likely to use an “at least 1” rule here and then let projected ownership guide me, because I can’t really say with any confidence who the best play is among them (or, well, if Deebo really is back, he’s the best price-considered play…but I also suspect he’s going to be the highest owned of the three).
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