Covid Updates coming throughout the weekend on OWS (Posted at 8:30pm ET Dec 16th).
Game Overview ::
By papy324 >>
- There isn’t a ton to love for DFS in this game
- The Titans’ backfield is a timeshare
- Dionte Johnson is finally priced appropriately
- Najee Harris leads the league in touches, but will cost a significant premium
How tennessee Will Try To Win ::
The 9-4 Titans come into this game in firm control of their division. They hold a two-game lead with four to play, and a victory would make them the division winner in all but a total collapse scenario. The Titans are also in a three-way tie for the number one seed, giving them a huge incentive to win out. There might not be a team in the league that would benefit more from getting a week off, as the Titans are currently projected to get Derrick Henry back “around” Week 18. Earning a first-round bye would all but ensure King Henry is at full speed for the Titans drive to the Superbowl.
The Titans draw a Steelers’ defense that is falling apart at the seams, ranking an uncharacteristically bad 30th in DVOA against the run and an equally poor 22nd in DVOA against the pass. The Titans play slow in all situations and still want to run the ball even without Henry in the lineup. The Steelers were pasted by Dalvin Cook for 205 yards and by Joe Mixon for 165 yards in two of their past three games. There is no reason for the Titans to deviate from their preferred method of attack against a defense that hasn’t been able to stop anyone on the ground. Expect a slow-paced, balanced attack that leans ground-heavy.
How pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::
The 6-6-1 Steelers are in the basement of their division but are only half a game behind a pack of 7-6 AFC teams, all vying for the last two wild card spots. Ben Roethlisberger has publicly declared this is his last season, and the Pittsburgh faithful would love to send him off with a playoff run. Unfortunately, the Steelers are coming off a five-game stretch where they tied the lowly Lions and have only beaten the Ravens in an emotionally charged home game that they won by one point. Their defense has collapsed in their other three recent games, giving up 41/41/36 points against the Chargers, Bengals, and Vikings.
The Steelers run an up-tempo (11th situational neutral pace) short passing attack designed to hide the fact that Big Ben can’t throw the ball down the field like he could in his younger days. The Titans are middling against the pass (14th in DVOA) and the run (18th in DVOA), which shouldn’t tilt the Steelers away from their preferred method of attack. Expect Pittsburgh to come out throwing the ball short while continuing to feed Najee Harris touches on the ground and through the air.
Likeliest Game Flow ::
This game has a low total of 41.5 because it’s difficult to project either team for a lot of points. The Steelers offense has looked one-dimensional all year as they try to operate behind one of the worst O-lines in football. The Titans’ defense has improved as the season has worn on, and they are likely to slow Pittsburgh down. The Titans’ offense hasn’t been the same since losing Derrick Henry and is also down stud WR A.J. Brown. The Steelers defense has been bad lately, but they are playing at home, and their season is on the line. Their defense still has talent, and it’s easy to see them getting up for this game against the wounded Titans. The most likely scenario is a grind-it-out affair that stays close throughout, with the winning team getting there in the 4th quarter.
OWS FAM GOOGLE DRIVE
BANKROLL TRACKER
TOP PLAYS OF THE WEEKEND
SORTABLE GREEN ZONE TOUCHES
TEAM & PLAYER DK POINTS
WEEKLY HAND-BUILDER
DFS+ Interpretation ::
By LexMiraglia10 >>
Ben Roethlisberger:
- Ben’s only two games of 20+ DK pts: 22.9 in 37-41 loss to LAC // 28.8 in 28-36 loss to MIN (both games on primetime)
- Ben threw for more than 1 TD just once in first 7 games, but has averaged 2.2 TDs over the last 5 games with just one game under 2 TDs
- 9/13 QBs vs TEN have scored 2+ TDs
- Seven QBs have passed for 290+ yds vs TEN
- Ben has thrown for 270+ yds just four times all season
- TEN ranks 14th in def pass DVOA
- TEN has the 5th most QB hurries per PFR
- Ben has the fastest time to throw in the NFL
PIT Pass-Catchers:
- Only ATL allowed more WR DK pts than TEN in 2020
- TEN has allowed the 2nd most WR DK pts in 2021 (43.3)
- Nine WRs vs TEN in 2021 have scored 20+ DK pts: Hopkins (26.3), Kirk (24) // Lockett (34.8), Swain (21) // Davis (24.1) // Diggs (23.9), Beasley (21.8) // Pittman (30.6) // Kupp (20.5) // Bourne (23.1)
- TEN has allowed 16 WR TDs
- TEN has allowed the 11th highest success rate to WRs on the most WR tg faced
- Diontae has 49 tg more (130) than next closest (81, Claypool)
- Diontae has 10 games of 10+ tg
- Diontae has 7 games of 80+ yds; 3 of 100+ yds
- Diontae had 3 TDs through Week 10; but was a dropped TD away from 4 TDs in last 4 weeks
- Claypool has just three games of 15+ DK pts (18.6, 27, 17.5), and last week’s was the first time since W5
- Claypool has just four games with 5+ rec
- TEN has allowed the lowest success rate & yds/att to TEs
- Only TEs over 40 yds vs TEN: Arnold (64) // Kelce (65) // Higbee (51) // Jonnu (49)
- Only TEs to score vs TEN: Hollister, Sweeney, Doyle
- Freiermuth has 4+ tg in 8 games
- Freiermuth’s tg since W8: 7 // 6 // 9 // 7 // 4 // 4 // 3
- Freiermuth leads PIT pass-catchers with 7 TDs (6 in last 7 games since Bye)
Najee Harris:
- Top RB total yds vs TEN: Edmonds (106) // Carson (31) // Taylor (72), Hines (79) // Carter (34) // Robinson (147) // Singletary (43) // Williams (50) // Taylor (122) // Hendy (58) // Ingram (108) // Burkhead (40) // Harris (52), Bolden (54) // JRob (4)
- TEN has allowed the 4th fewest RB rush yds, and 2nd fewest RB DK pts/g (19.5)
- TEN has allowed just 8 RB rush TDs, 1 RB rec TD
- Najee has 80+ rush yds in 5/13 games, and five games of under 50 rush yds
- Najee has 1+ TD in 8/13 games
- TEN has allowed the 9th lowest success rate on RB tg
- TEN has allowed 40+ rec yds to 5 RBs
- Najee has 8 games of 5+ tg
- Najee has just 3 games of 40+ rec yds, and not since W6
Ryan Tannehill:
- The total is set at just 41.5 points
- Since 2020, the game scores of his 10 games of 20+ DK pts read: 46-25, 42-36, 35-41, 42-16, 41-38, 33-30, 30-24, 25-16, 27-3, 34-31
- That’s 8/10 games in which TEN scored 30+ pts, and 6/10 games in which the combined total finished over 60
- TEN offensive pts with Henry: 13 // 33 // 25 // 24 // 30 // 34 // 27 // 34
- TEN offensive pts without Henry: 21 // 23 // 13 // 13 // 20
- PIT has allowed the 11th most pts/g (24.77)
- Teams to score more than that average vs PIT: LV, GB, CHI, LAC, CIN, MIN
- Tannehill has passed for 300 yds in just 5 of his 30 starts since 2020
- PIT has allowed 231.8 pass yds/g, with just four QBs over 275 yds
TEN WRs:
- PIT has allowed the 13th lowest success rate to WRs
- PIT has allowed 15 WR TDs
- WRs with 70+ yds vs PIT: Ruggs (113:1) // Sutton (120:1), Patrick (89) // Keenan (112), Williams (97:1) // Higgins (114:1) // Jefferson (79:1), Osborn (83:1)
- TEN WRs with 70+ yds: Brown (91, 133:1, 155:1) // Julio (128) // Westbrook (107) // Johnson (100)
- Julio vs SEA in W2: 128 yds
- Julio in six other games: 241 yds (40.2 yds/g)
- Julio’s only games above 5 tg (6, 8, 6 in Weeks 1, 2, 14)
TEN RBs:
- RBs with 80+ total yds vs PIT: Singletary (80) // Mixon (94) // Dillon (97), Jones (99) // Javonte (86) // Collins (98) // Montgomery (80) // Swift (135) // Ekeler (115) // Mixon (163) // Freeman (97) // Dalvin (222)
- PIT allowed 0 RB TDs in first five games; RB TDs since: 1 // 1 // 0 // 2 // 4 // 2 // 1 // 2
- 11 rush att was an individual TEN RB high in three games with Adrian Peterson
- In the two games since cutting him::
- Foreman: 19:109 // 13:47:1 /// Hilliard: 12:131:1 // 6:13 /// McNichols: DNP // 8:16
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