Kickoff Sunday, Dec 19th 1:00pm Eastern

Jets (
15.75) at

Dolphins (
26.25)

Over/Under 42.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Jets Run D
12th DVOA/29th Yards allowed per carry
Dolphins Run O
15th DVOA/30th Yards per carry
Jets Pass D
32nd DVOA/30th Yards allowed per pass
Dolphins Pass O
3rd DVOA/17th Yards per pass
Dolphins Run D
7th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per carry
Jets Run O
17th DVOA/27th Yards per carry
Dolphins Pass D
29th DVOA/16th Yards allowed per pass
Jets Pass O
23rd DVOA/20th Yards per pass

COVID UPDATES COMING THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND ON OWS

Game Overview ::

By papy324>>
  • The Jets almost always allow at least one significant stat line.
  • Ty Johnson is underpriced for his role if Tevin Coleman sits.
  • Myles Gaskin is underpriced for his role if Malcolm Brown and Phillip Lindsay sit.
  • Devante Parker brings a nice floor/ceiling combination at his price.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

The 3-10 Jets come into this game worse than their record. How can you be worse than 3-10? Robert Saleh’s squad has a sorry negative 171 point differential on the year. The only other three teams in their realm of ineptitude are the Lions (-141), Texans (-179), and Jaguars (-160). Those teams all have worse records than the Jets. The Jets are fortunate to be 3-10.

Robert Saleh wants to win with mistake-free football on offense and strong defense. The problem with that formula is his team has a turnover-prone rookie QB, and they’re appalling on defense. This week they get a Dolphins defense that is middling against both the pass and the run but is defined by their style of play rather than their middle of the pack DVOA rankings. The Dolphins play man coverage and blitz at one of the highest rates in the league, and Zach Wilson isn’t the type of QB that is likely to do well against pressure. When these teams met in Week 11, Joe Flacco was under center. Flacco is much better equipped to deal with this type of defense than Wilson. The Jets coaching staff seemed willing to let Wilson throw the past two weeks, making it reasonable to expect them to try and let their young QB win this game.

How miami Will Try To Win ::

The 6-7 Dolphins enter this game off a late-season bye that every team covets late in the year. After starting 1-7, the Fish have ripped off five straight wins and are only one game behind a pack of AFC teams who are all battling for the final wildcard spot. No team has ever started 1-7 and made the playoffs (only three teams have started 1-5 before making the playoffs). Even with an extra game and expanded playoff field, it would be quite the feat for the Dolphins to reach the post-season.

The Dolphins playoff quest is aided this week by their opponent, who sports one the worst defenses in recent memory, managing to rank 32nd in DVOA against the pass, and 31st in DVOA against the run. The Jets allow offenses to choose how they want to move the ball so there is no reason for the Dolphins to deviate from their normal approach of a balanced pass-leaning offense that plays at a moderate speed (15th situational neutral pace). The Dolphins will look to roll over the sorry defense of the Jets while creating turnovers and eventually running out the clock up by multiple scores in the 4th quarter.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has a low total of 42 because the Jets are projected for their usual 17 points. The Jets have produced 17/17/21/18/9 points in their past five games, so their team total feels about right. The Dolphins should be able to have their way on offense, which will eventually force the Jets to cut bait and let Wilson throw around 40 times. That will lead to turnovers, and the Dolphins should be able to win this game going away in the fourth quarter. 


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DFS+ Interpretation ::

By LexMiraglia10 >>

Tua Tagovailoa:

  • Tua’s only two games over 20 DK pts (25.4, 28.5) came against defenses allowing 18.9 & 21.6 QB DK pts/g and ranked 31st & 29th in def pass DVOA
  • Jets are allowing 20.1 DK pts/g and are ranked 32nd in def pass DVOA
  • Jets allowed 3 QB TDs in the first 4 games
  • Jets have allowed 20 QB TDs in the last 9 games
  • Every QB has scored 2+ TDs vs NYJ since Week 4
  • Tua has 2+ TDs in 5/7 full games this year
  • Tua in first matchup with NYJ: 27/33 for 273 yds, 2 TD, INT

MIA WRs:

  • Jets have allowed the 7th fewest WR DK pts/g thanks to the 5th fewest WR TDs allowed (9) & 3rd fewest WR rec allowed (10.8 rec/g) on the 2nd fewest faced WR tg
  • WRs with 70+ yds vs NYJ: DJ Moore (80) // Patrick (98) // Higgins (97) // Diggs (162:1), Davis (105) // Hollins (72:1)
  • Waddle with Tua (4:61:1 // 10:70:2 // 7:83 // 4:29 // 8:65 // 9:137:1 // 9:90)
  • Parker with Tua (4:81 // 8:85 // 5:62)
  • Waddle finished with 8:65, rush TD in the first matchup with NYJ (no Parker)

Mike Gesicki:

  • Gesicki tg with Tua (full): 2, 9, 8, 4, 6, 3, 11
  • Gesicki tg without Parker: 7, 9, 8, 8, 7, 6, 3
  • Gesicki tg with Parker: 2, 6, 12, 6, 4, 11
  • Gesicki has 40+ yds in 10/13 games (other three he combined for 17 yds)
  • Gesicki has 80+ yds in three games
  • TEs with 40+ yds vs NYJ: Henry (42) // Pitts (119:1), Hurst (40:1) // Gesicki (50) // Goedert (105:2) // Vannett (44)
  • NYJ have allowed the 3rd highest success rate to TEs

MIA RBs:

  • NYJ have allowed 36.4 DK pts/g to RBs; next closest is 31.2 DK pts/g
  • The Jets have allowed the 3rd most RB rush yds, most RB rush TDs, 4th most RB rec, & 2nd most RB rec yds/g
  • Four RBs have had 60+ rec yds vs NYJ (two more of 40+) (four more of 30+)
  • Gaskin’s five games of 15+ DK pts: (5:25, 10:74:2) // (15:67, 4:10:1) // (20:34:1, 6:23) // (23:89, 3:7:1) // (16:49:2, 2:3)
  • Gaskin’s 23 att vs the NYJ were the most he’s had all year
  • Gaskin touches since W7: 19 // 16 // 26 // 16 // 27 // 18 // 17

Zach Wilson:

  • MIA has allowed 20 TDs to 11 INT in 13 games (8 INT in last 6 g)
  • Wilson has thrown just 6 TDs to 11 INT in 8 games
  • Wilson’s only game of 20 DK pts (W13) was still just 22 DK pts (thanks to a rush TD)
  • Wilson missed the first MIA matchup in which Flacco went for 291:2
  • Allen (3) & Brady (5) are the only QBs with more than 2 TDs vs MIA
  • Wilson will continue to be without top WRs Davis & Moore for the rest of season

NYJ WRs:

  • After Moore’s late stretch tearing it up was cut short by injury, Berrios led the Jets in receiving (52 yds) in the first game without both Davis & Moore
  • Tg in W13: Berrios (10) // Crowder (6) // Cole (6) // DJ Montgomery (6)
  • Top performing WR vs MIA: Agholor (5:72:1) // Diggs (4:60:1) // Renfrow (5:77:1) // Pittman (6:59) // Brown (7:124:2), Evans (6:113:2) // MJJ (7:100:1) // Gage (4:67:1) // Beasley (10:110) // Cooks (6:56) // Bateman (6:80) // E Moore (8:141:1) // DJ Moore (4:103) // Golladay (3:37)

NYJ RBs:

  • Total yds since Carter went down::
  • Coleman: 70 // 77 // –
  • Johnson: 42 // 15 // 57
  • Walter: 38 // 11 // –
  • Perine: – // – // 28
  • MIA has allowed 30+ rec yds to 6 RBs
  • MIA has allowed 60+ rush yds to 8 RBs (3 of 100+)
  • MIA allowed 9 RB TDs in first seven weeks, but has allowed none over the last six (those opponents: BUF, HOU, BAL, NYJ, CAR, NYG)
  • Carter has between 9-16 rush att in all nine games he’s played since W1
  • Carter’s only game of 20+ DK pts came with 14 tg from Mike White and 172 total yds