Patriots (

22.25) at
Colts (

23.75)

COVID UPDATES COMING THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND ON OWS

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86>>

• Both teams enter this game, which has huge AFC playoff implications, off of their bye weeks and heading into a stretch of critical games.
• Both teams have top 10 overall defenses by most metrics, with the weakest area for either team being the Colts pass defense.
• These are two of the slowest-paced offenses in the league, and also two of the most run-heavy teams.
• We have a general blueprint (from a familiar face for New England fans) of the game plan the Patriots may use on both sides of the ball.
• Both teams are relatively healthy for this point in the season and should be able to play in their desired manners on both sides of the ball without huge adjustments forced by personnel issues.

How new england Will Try To Win ::

The Patriots are having a tremendous season and currently sit on top of the AFC. They are in the midst of a seven-game winning streak and are 8-2 in their last ten games with both losses coming in walk-off fashion to the Bucs and Cowboys. This success has been built on the strength of their defense, run game, coaching, and execution. Mac Jones has received a ton of credit for this season, and he has certainly been very, very good as a rookie and was a perfect fit for this team, so this is not meant to be a knock on him in any way, but the situation around him could hardly be any better. The Patriots are so well-coached and execute all of the little things so well that it eliminates much of the chaos that most rookie QBs have to deal with. The strength of his O-Line, defense, and running game also keep him in favorable game scripts at almost all times, as the Patriots have only trailed by more than one score at any point in two games this season (Week 3 against the Saints and Week 5 against the Texans). 

The Patriots are notorious for designing game plans that attack the weaknesses of their opponents and for finding ways to attack personnel or scheme deficiencies. The Colts are one of the stronger “pass funnel” defenses in the league, with a premier run defense and a secondary that has sprung leaks on multiple occasions throughout the season. While it is unlikely the Patriots take a completely pass focused approach (as they did in a similar matchup with Tampa Bay), we should certainly expect a much higher pass-rate in this game than their 52% situation-neutral pass rate they’ve shown over the course of the season, which ranks 31st out of the 32 NFL teams. Bill Belichick is also very well known for his record when he has extra preparation time like he has this week as the Patriots come off of their bye. The last time we saw the Patriots, they were running the ball on almost every play (literally) in a terrible weather game against the Bills. It would be classic Belichick to come out of the bye and totally flip that script by throwing at a 65-70% clip. The Colts are a zone-heavy team that mixes up their zones rather than sitting in the same couple of looks all game. This is actually a good thing for the Patriots as their personnel does not have a lot of high-end talent that is going to go out and win 1-on-1 matchups consistently. 

Ironically, I think that the game plan for this game for the Patriots will likely look very similar to what Tom Brady (New England’s former leader) and the Bucs did to the Colts a few weeks ago. The Bucs spread the Colts out and attacked them in the short areas of the field with their passing game while mixing in downhill runs with their physical lead RB Leonard Fournette. Something similar from the Patriots would make a lot of sense as the Colts run defense is built on speed and athleticism and the Patriots RBs Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson are very physical runners, so spreading them out with personnel and formation, and then running right at them would likely cause a lot of issues. In any sport, the best way to neutralize power is with speed, and the best way to neutralize speed is with power. The Colts defense is built on the speed of their linebackers, so getting them into “nickel” personnel packages and then punching them in the mouth with a downhill running scheme would, in theory, be the best way to use their strengths against them. Tom Brady spent almost 20 years building game plans with Belichick and is very involved in that aspect of the Bucs offense, so it is highly likely that the Patriots will see this matchup the same way the Bucs saw it. We should expect the Patriots to spread the field and find openings in the Colts zones in the short and intermediate areas while attacking them on the ground in a very particular way.

How indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

While the Patriots are a team that will make dramatic changes in their approach based on the opponent, the Colts are at the other end of the spectrum as a team that will try to impose their will through their clear offensive strength and engine in Jonathan Taylor. After receiving questionable early-season usage, Taylor has seen 29 opportunities (carries plus targets) per game over the last four games. That kind of workload is as good as there is in the league currently, and despite knowing it is coming, opponents have not been able to slow him down as he has averaged over five yards per carry in eight of his last 11 games. That being said, JT’s least productive game where he also saw the least volume, was against the Buccaneers who laid the blueprint for how to somewhat take him away.

With two weeks to prepare for this game, the Patriots will almost certainly force Wentz to beat them and bait him into any negative tendencies they have found. If you are up for it, I highly recommend reading this article where Frank Reich dives deep into the RPO (run-pass option) concepts used in the Colts offense and how they became uncharacteristically pass-heavy in that Bucs game due to the defenses they were seeing. I think it is likely that the Patriots will stack the box and send run blitzes at the Colts that force them to put the ball in Wentz’s hands and throw more. As discussed earlier, the Patriots overall philosophy is to take away the strengths of their opponents and force them to beat them in a different way than they want to. The Colts do not have high-end personnel in their passing game and Carson Wentz. The Patriots have PFF’s #2 graded coverage unit and are #2 in pass defense DVOA and #3 in yards per pass attempt allowed. The Patriots are going to use the predictable tendencies of the Colts to funnel their play-calling in a particular direction (towards the pass) and trust the strength of their secondary to hold down the undermanned Colts receiving corps.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

When I started researching to write this game up, I had a much different view of how this section would go than where I ultimately landed. Despite how run-heavy both teams have been this season, the dynamics of the coaching chess match that any Patriots game inevitably becomes will likely turn this game into something far different than most people are expecting. The Patriots are almost certain to turn up their passing volume significantly in a matchup like this, and at the very least, change the personnel and formations that they run from to expose the underlying weaknesses of the Colts defense. On the other side of the ball, the Patriots will dictate things by exploiting the flexible nature of the Colts play calls and concepts. In true Belichick fashion, this game will be played on the Patriots terms. While I would feel that way about this game in any week, the fact that this game is happening after their bye week only strengthens my resolve in how they will see this matchup and how they will prepare.

Both teams are well-coached and are good enough on both sides of the ball to adjust and move the ball down the field. Assuming the Patriots are able to force Wentz to throw more, it is entirely possible he has success against their man coverage (if stacking boxes and sending run blitzes, the Patriots will almost certainly have to play man coverage which is easier to read for a QB like Wentz, who struggles against complex defenses and can lock in on receivers and not go through progressions when he is asked to do too much). Likewise, JT has plenty of talent and is capable of breaking through the line for big plays against any defense. Basically, what I am saying is that everything laid out in the previous paragraph is the important part to consider from a game flow perspective, as the game is likely to be highly competitive but the pass rate and aggressiveness of both offenses will likely be much higher than we are used to seeing. The result of this will be more play volume and higher volatility than you would usually expect in a matchup of teams with such heavy run rates. 

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Saturday Slate DFS Breakdown::

Note: This was written before the Browns/Raiders game was moved to Monday leaving this a single game only slate. We’re leaving this here for the related thoughts explored. Xandamere’s Showdown thoughts are below.

Mjohnson86>>

QUARTERBACK::

• On such a small slate we want to be especially careful to consider all possibilities and not rule anything out because of how fluky NFL games can be. That being said, Derek Carr and Case Keenum (or Baker Mayfield if he is cleared in time) are going to be a tough sell. The Raiders/Browns game has weather concerns and both offenses are looking like they will be severely undermanned, especially in their receiving corps. Likewise, both teams are far more likely to lean on their running games and operate in a manner that mutes play volume and scoring opportunities. 
• Meanwhile, as noted in the Edge writeup for the NE/IND game, Mac Jones and Carson Wentz are very likely to have increased pass rates than we are used to seeing. To put it all together, Jones and Wentz are likely to both see higher volume *and* higher efficiency than the QBs in the CLE/LVR game. 
• If Keenum starts, a lot of people will likely move towards him for the salary savings but there aren’t too many high-end salaries on the slate so saving the money really isn’t necessary to make lineups work. Sacrificing floor and ceiling just to save a few hundred bucks on a loosely priced slate is not a route I will be taking.
• Derek Carr does have some downfield threats and the Browns have had a few games where they gave up big plays this year. If going to this game at QB, he is the route I would take.
• QB is one of the bottleneck positions on a slate like this, and it is so easy for a player to become a “must” have in your lineup if they can separate themselves on a raw score or points-per-dollar basis. Ultimately, the questions around the LVR/CLE game and the way I am seeing NE/IND playing out will keep me off of QBs from the earlier game, as I see the likelihood of Carr or Keenum/Mayfield posting a separating score being much lower than their likely ownership, and thus not worth the risk in sacrificing certainty and projection. I will go with Jones and Wentz while finding ways to make unique lineups through my overall roster construction and approaches at other positions.

RUNNING BACK::

• There are very interesting dynamics among the RBs on this slate, as two of the teams have split backfield tendencies and the other two have backs that they like to rely on but will likely be keyed on by their opponents. 
• Jonathan Taylor is clearly the player most likely to “break the slate.” The matchup and game script may give reasons to fade Taylor, but there isn’t a lot of pressure in pricing for the slate so fading the player with hands down the highest ceiling is tough to justify in GPPs. 
• Nick Chubb also has some slate-breaking upside and is not hard to find the salary for.
• Players like Nyheim Hines and Jalen Richard (discussed more below) are far more viable on DraftKings than on FanDuel or Yahoo. 
• Rhamondre Stevenson and D’Ernest Johnson are very intriguing to me. Both have shown tremendous talent and they fit their matchups very well. I expect Damien Harris to play but if he doesn’t then Stevenson would become a lock. I outlined the stats for running backs against the Raiders in the Edge writeup, and if Johnson assumes Kareem Hunt’s usual role he could easily be one. 

WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS::

• Hunter Renfrow and Michael Pittman are the clear best options on this slate at wide receiver.
• Patriots receivers (and tight ends) are likely to see increased pass volume due to the nature of the week’s matchup.
• Donovan Peoples-Jones looked like he was establishing himself as the Browns alpha wide receiver last week coming out of their bye, and now Jarvis Landry is out.
• Foster Moreau is the only tight end on the slate who is not sharing time.
• David Njoku’s COVID status will be interesting to watch. If he is active, his talent in a featured pass-catching role would be really fun to see. If Njoku is not active, Harrison Bryant at minimum price becomes possibly the best value on the slate.
• Mo Alie-Cox is priced at $2,400 on DraftKings (I didn’t even know that was possible). He is an insane athlete and the Colts are coming out of a bye week. He is the type of athlete/player that a couple of schemed looks coming out of the bye would make sense for. He also has two games with zero points in the last six weeks.

WAYS TO GET UNIQUE::

• Carson Wentz + NE Defense – Playing a defense against your quarterback is generally a losing strategy in DFS, outside of Jameis Winston’s wild 2019 season. However, on short slates we must consider the variance and smaller player pools at respective positions. Given the way I think the NE/IND game is likely to play out and the nature of the two games involved, a game script that forces Wentz to pass a lot could (or may even be likely to) end with him as the highest scoring QB and the Patriots as the highest-scoring defense. Wentz has attempted over 40 passes only twice all season. In those two games, he has thrown four interceptions and taken five sacks while posting fantasy point totals of 20.3 and 26.3 points.
• Pass Catching RBs – Nyheim Hines and Jalen Richard are both stone minimum price on DraftKings. An in-game injury to Jonathan Taylor or Josh Jacobs or a game script where their team falls behind would likely result in some rushing attempts and a healthy amount of targets for either Hines or Richard. It’s even possible that either of these backs could see more opportunities without an injury ahead of them. Hines has shown explosive upside in the past and Richard is healthy for the first time since Kenyan Drake went down for the season. The Raiders have been apprehensive about giving Jacobs a bell cow role and it would not be surprising for Richard to slide into the change of pace role Drake previously held. These are somewhat thin angles to consider on a normal slate but important to consider here.
• Stacking RBs – Thinking through unique ways that a game can play out that wouldn’t be profitable to even consider on a full slate, but are very possible within the context of any specific game, is important to keep in mind on a small slate like this. Both the Browns and Patriots have multi-headed backfields that could gobble up the scoring for their teams. Playing multiple running backs from the same team feels unnatural for DFS players who play mostly on main slates, where that is very rarely an optimal approach, and those tendencies will usually carry over to smaller slates like this. Combining this thought with the previous point on pass-catching RBs, this strategy would also be viable with the Raiders and Colts backfields as it is entirely reasonable for the “stud” backs to get some yards and touchdowns early and the pass-catching backs to deliver value on late-game passing game usage.
• 2-TE Builds – All of these teams have fairly spread out passing attacks, and there aren’t any high-end alpha-type receivers dominating targets (outside of Hunter Renfrow, who isn’t really a priority red zone target). Likewise, three of the four teams on the slate have multiple TEs that see the field a lot and are regularly involved in game plans. Assuming Darren Waller doesn’t play, no TE will be priced over $4,200 and the lack of dominant receivers increases the chances of all of the tight ends finding a way into the end zone. A unique construction that has multiple low-priced players scoring touchdowns would certainly be a potential “path to first”.
• Multiple LVR players without Carr – Usually when playing multiple pass catchers from the same team, you almost always use the QB with them. However, given the context of the slate, I think you could play two or even three pass-catchers from the Raiders without using Carr. It isn’t hard to imagine a scenario where Renfrow has a similar game to last week (13 receptions for 117 yards and one TD, on 14 targets). However, what if the TD goes to someone else? Zay Jones, Foster Moreau, and Bryan Edwards are all averaging over four targets per game since Darren Waller went out and are all $3,700 or less on DK. If Renfrow has a 20-25 point game without scoring a TD, his raw score will likely be necessary to win a tournament while increasing the chances that one or two of those other players gets in the end zone. At those prices, scoring a TD could make any of them a top points-per-dollar play on the slate. Both of those things could happen with Carr throwing for only 250 yards and one or two TDs, and having a couple of turnovers. As the highest-priced QB on the slate, there’s a good chance that fading a stat line like that would be +EV, while two or even three of his pass-catchers keep you on track for a winning score.

Overall, this was a really fun slate to dive into and research. There are a lot of unknowns and things could go many different ways on Saturday, which makes things really interesting from a GPP perspective. As always, the most important thing will be making sure your roster tells a story and finding ways to be unique without stretching the bounds of certainty and likelihood too far. Hopefully, these thoughts are helpful, and if not, I will look forward to hearing about how wrong I was in Discord on Saturday night!

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

MJohnson86 already wrote up the game in fantastic detail, but now that we’re down to just a single game on Saturday, I’m going to add some Showdown notes in bullet points:

• Damien Harris being out makes Rhamondre Stevenson an incredible play at $8,200. He will also be one of the highest-owned plays on the slate, but for good reason. I agree with MJohnson on expecting the Patriots to pass at a higher rate than normal for them, but Rhamondre will still be heavily involved, especially if the game is close (or if the Pats pull off the upset).
  • Side note here that Nyheim Hines correlates well with Stevenson. Stevenson will get more work if the Patriots are playing from ahead, while Hines will see more work if the Colts are playing from behind. Like magic!
• Jonathan Taylor is the highest floor, highest ceiling play on the slate. Duh. He’s also the most expensive. If you’re the Patriots, you’re going to gameplan to stop him and make the Colts beat your elite secondary (3rd in DVOA) with Carson Wentz. Whether or not the Patriots can be successful in doing so is one of the lynchpins of the slate. Personally, in large-field tournaments, Taylor is a play I would want to be underweight on, not because he isn’t a fantastic play but because he’s likely to push 75%+ ownership, and if he fails, he drags down a HUGE chunk of the field with him. 
• I hate guessing at Patriots receiver usage, but I guess I have to here. When price is factored in, I prefer Meyers, then Agholor, then Henry, then Bourne, then Jonnu. 
  • On this note, I would not be concerned about the Patriots snap counts from last week against Buffalo. The Patriots had a very specific run-focused game plan, which meant they heavily utilized their best blocking pass-catchers (Jonnu Smith and N’Keal Harry). I would expect both to revert to their more normal roles in this one.
• Brandon Bolden has an attractive pass-catching role for just $1,800 and fits best in lineups built around the Colts winning the game. Bolden is also questionable. If he misses, I don’t know who gets the RB2 role for the Patriots. JJ Taylor is on the Covid list, Harris is out, Jakob Johnson is a fullback. Maybe Ozigbo gets called up from the practice squad, or maybe Gunnar Olszewski sees some work? If Bolden misses, the RB2 situation has a lot of uncertainty, and embracing risk in tournaments could pay off (Bolden missing would also, of course, boost Stevenson’s role in the passing game significantly).
• On the Colts side, Michael Pittman is the best pass-catching option. Duh. Beyond Pittman and Taylor, this offense gets really spread out. Zach Pascal is my favorite for his role and price, but all of T.Y. Hilton, Ashton Dulin, Dezmon Patmon (who?), and then Jack Doyle, Mo Alie-Cox, and Kylen Granson at tight end will see the field. That’s a lot of dudes and it’s hard to rank these guys. Alie-Cox and Doyle would be my favorites after Pittman and Pascal: Doyle for his solid role, Alie-Cox for his freakish athleticism. But everyone on this offense outside of Taylor and Pittman is a high-risk option in this spread-out offense.

Some groups to consider

• At most 1 kicker
• At most 1 defense
• Pair captain pass catchers with their QBs (or consider boosting the QB if using a captain receiver if you don’t want 100% exposure to this pairing – discussed in further detail in the 2020 update to my Advanced Showdowns course)
• If using an RB captain, apply a negative correlation to the opposing defense and kicker (you can see how to do so in my FantasyLabs tutorial video)
• Pair captain quarterbacks with at least 2 pass catchers (note here that in this Showdown I would be more likely than usual to captain a quarterback – especially Wentz – because there aren’t many dominant pass-catching options. It’s entirely feasible to see a pass-heavy game script in which one of the QBs is the highest overall scorer on the slate)
• At most 2 Colts pass catchers not named Pittman 
• At most 1 of Taylor and Hines (not a “must” rule, but they’re pretty significantly negatively correlated)
• At most 2 of Bourne, Harry, Henry, and Jonnu
• If Bolden is out, at most 1 of Ozigbo and Olszewski if you’re trying to go the “guess the RB2” route