Kickoff Sunday, Dec 19th 1:00pm Eastern

Texans (
17) at

Jaguars (
23)

Over/Under 40.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Texans Run D
30th DVOA/31st Yards allowed per carry
Jaguars Run O
18th DVOA/22nd Yards per carry
Texans Pass D
9th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per pass
Jaguars Pass O
2nd DVOA/22nd Yards per pass
Jaguars Run D
1st DVOA/24th Yards allowed per carry
Texans Run O
28th DVOA/32nd Yards per carry
Jaguars Pass D
7th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per pass
Texans Pass O
29th DVOA/28th Yards per pass

Covid Updates coming throughout the weekend on OWS (Posted at 8:30 pm ET Dec 16th).

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>
  • The Texans are in “see what we have” mode 
  • Brandin Cooks is underpriced for his role and matchup 
  • James Robinson has more upside than the field will realize 
  • Both defenses are attractively priced for a game with a total under 40 featuring two bad offenses 

How houston Will Try To Win ::

The 2-11 Texans limp into this game having regularly been blown out all season. Their playoff hopes vanished long ago, and they are playing for evaluations the rest of the season. The expectations weren’t high, but the best fans can do now is root for the number one pick. The Texans play slow (21st in situational neutral pace) but speed up in the second half (4th in pace) because they’re constantly losing. David Culley thinks he’s found something in Davis Mills and let him throw it 49 times after surprisingly naming him the starter over Tyrod Taylor. Culley might as well find out what he has with Mills since the season is lost and Tyrod isn’t the long-term answer.

This week the Texans draw a team struggling just as much. The Jaguars’ defense has been beatable through the air (31st in DVOA) and middling against the run (13th in DVOA). The Texans look like they want to see what Mills can do down the stretch, and while it’s not reasonable to predict another 49 pass attempts, there is good reason to think Mills will once again eclipse 40 in a game where the matchup should tilt the Texans towards the air. Expect the Texans to play balanced, leaning pass-heavy, with a willingness to go extremely pass-heavy if they fall behind.

How jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

The 2-11 Jaguars enter this game also “competing” for the top pick, as they try to make it two number one picks in a row. Are the Jaguars still moving to London and becoming the Red Coats? Is that still on? How will they try to win? That’s a harder question. The talentless Jags have scored 7/9/17/10/14/7/0 points in their last seven games and don’t seem to have an identity, looking like a different offense almost every week. They seem to favor playing slow (20th in situational neutral pace) but speed way up in the second half (3rd in pace) because they’re always chasing points.

This week they get a Texans defense that has been run over (28th in DVOA) but has held up well against the pass (8th in DVOA), presenting a run funnel defense. The Jags have been willing to throw or run with high volume seemingly out of nowhere, but this matchup should tilt them towards the ground. Expect the Jags to come out with a balanced offense that leans run and to stick with a conservative approach if the game remains close.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has one of the lowest totals you’ll see at 39 and pits two of the worst teams in the league against each other. This game features teams with negative point differentials north of 150. Both defenses are weak, and both offenses are equally weak, creating a setup of weakness on weakness for both sides of the ball. Bad offenses and are bad offenses for a reason, and playing a bad defense doesn’t make them good. The most likely game flow has both teams struggling to move the ball, and each finishing around 20-points, with the winner being determined by who makes fewer mistakes.


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DFS+ Interpretation ::

By LexMiraglia10 >>

Trevor Lawrence:

  • HOU has allowed 250.8 pass yds/g and 20 TDs to 14 INT
  • Lawrence has thrown for 250 yds just three times, and not once in the seven games since the Bye
  • Lawrence has thrown just 2 TDs to 6 INT in that seven-game span
  • Lawrence’s most pass yds (332) & TDs (3) came in a Week 1 blowout loss to HOU, but he’s yet to throw more than 1 TD in a game since
  • Lawrence has seven games of 20+ rush yds
  • Josh Allen (41) is the only QB with more than 11 rush yds vs HOU

JAC WRs:

  • WRs with 70+ yds vs HOU: Chark (86:1), MJJ (77:1) // Moore (126) // Diggs (114), Sanders (74) // Hilton (80) // Kupp (115:1), Van (88) // Waddle (83) // Westbrook (107) // Pittman (77) // Lockett (142:1)
  • HOU has allowed six 20+ DK pt scores to WRs
  • HOU has allowed the 3rd highest success rate to WRs
  • MJJ yds since Chark injury: 24 // 25 // 100 // 35 // 21 // 35 // 52 // 11 // 70
  • Since Chark injury, MJJ has 8/10 games under 10 DK pts (13 & 26 in other two) 
  • Laviska has one game over 13 DK pts (17), and 10/13 games under 10 DK pts
  • Treadwell has led JAC in receiving over the last 3 weeks with 53, 62, 68 yds
  • Agnew (IR) is the last JAC WR to catch a TD, and it occurred in Week 8
  • JAC WRs vs HOU in W1: MJJ (5:77:1) // Chark (3:86:1) // Viska (7:50)

James Robinson:

  • Robinson’s rush att in full games: 5 // 11 // 15 // 18 // 18 // 17 // 12 // 12 // 17 // 8 // 6
  • Robinson total touches:yds in full games: 11:54 // 14:64 // 21:134 // 20:76 // 19:147 // 21:101 // 17:84:1 // 15:38:1 // 21:115 // 12:35 // 6:4
  • Robinson has seemingly drawn the ire of the Urban Meyer tank-his-job train, though his 6 carries were still all but 1 of the rush att JAC had in Week 14
  • 20 RBs in 13 games have topped 50 total yds vs HOU
  • 6 RBs have topped 90 total yds vs HOU
  • Total yds from last 4 backfields vs HOU: 166 // 150 // 218 // 171

Davis Mills:

  • HOU’s only two wins have come with Tyrod Taylor, and Mills starts have come with loss margins of 15, 40, 3, 28, 26, 16, 20
  • In 5 games of action vs CLE (0.5), CAR, BUF, IND, ARI, IND (0.5), Mills has TOTALED 33.06 DK pts with just one game of 200+ yds
  • In 3 games vs NE, LAR, SEA, Mills has scored 27.7, 24.4, 21 DK pts and thrown for 300+ yds in all three
  • Mills’s only three scores over 11 DK pts have come in 22-25 L to NE, 22-38 L to LAR (down 38-0), and 13-33 L to SEA
  • JAC has allowed 244 pass yds/g, with four 300-yd passers (2 more of 290+)
  • JAC ranks 31st in def pass DVOA
  • Seven QBs have scored multiple TDs vs JAC

HOU WRs:

  • WRs over 70 yds vs JAC: Cooks (132) // Sutton (159) // Green (112), Kirk (104) // Boyd (118), Chase (77) // Waddle (70:2) // Lockett (142) // Diggs (85) // Pittman (71) // Aiyuk (85:1) // Kupp (129:1)
  • JAC has allowed the 5th highest success rate & 6th highest yds/att to WRs
  • Cooks in 7 games with Mills: 4:28:1 (half) // 9:112 // 5:47 // 3:23 // 9:89 // 5:21 // 6:83:1 // 3:38 (half) // 8:101
  • 60+ yd games: Cooks (6) // Moore, Conley, Collins (1)
  • After three 20+ DK pt scores to open the year, Cooks has just two (20.3, 21.1) in the previous ten games
  • Cooks went for 5:132 in the opener vs JAC
  • Cooks’s 108 tg are trailed by Collins’s 40, after Collins received career-high 10 tg in W14

HOU RBs:

  • Rush att leader since trading Ingram (6g): Burkhead (55) // Johnson (29) // Freeman (14)
  • Ingram’s 14.5 DK pts in W1 on 26 rush att is the highest score from a HOU RB this year