Kickoff Sunday, Nov 7th 1:00pm Eastern

Texans (
20.5) at

Dolphins (
24.5)

Over/Under 45.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Texans Run D
24th DVOA/31st Yards allowed per carry
Dolphins Run O
30th DVOA/30th Yards per carry
Texans Pass D
19th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per pass
Dolphins Pass O
22nd DVOA/17th Yards per pass
Dolphins Run D
13th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per carry
Texans Run O
32nd DVOA/32nd Yards per carry
Dolphins Pass D
9th DVOA/16th Yards allowed per pass
Texans Pass O
29th DVOA/28th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>
  • This game is a battle between two 1-7 teams, expect sloppy football.
  • The Dolphins have been choosing to throw, and their passing game has a cake matchup.
  • Tua Tagovailoa, Davante Parker, and Jaylen Waddle are all priced below $6,000 on DK.
  • The Dolphins defense might end up being the best play from this game.

How houston Will Try To Win ::

The 1-7 Texans come into this game riding a seven-game losing streak. Since beating the hapless Jaguars to open the season, the Texans have only played one competitive game. They managed to score 22 points last week in the final eight minutes of the 4th quarter against the Rams backups, after going down 38-0. The spread was 16.5 for those keeping track. If you remove those eight minutes versus backups, and you remove the Texans mysteriously competitive game against the Pats, their last four losses have come at a score differential of 140 to 8. Yowzers.

The Texans don’t try to win, as much as they try to survive. They’ve been smacked 40-0, 31-3, 31-5, and 38-0 (until reserves entered the game), in four of their last five games. David Culley looks lost as a coach, but in his defense, he doesn’t have any talent on the roster. The Texans play slow (27th situational neutral) even when they’re losing (20th when trailing), and they’re always losing. The Texans are playing the brand of football that is designed to “keep the score respectable,” rather than win. Yet, they still can’t keep the score respectable. This week, they draw the Dolphins who are 26th in DVOA against the pass, and 16th in DVOA against the run, creating a mini pass-funnel. There is no reason to expect the Texans to be able to take advantage of the Dolphins weaknesses. We can expect the Texans to try and throw, eventually falling behind and giving up.

How miami Will Try To Win ::

A wise man once said, “when you’re playing the Texans, it’s hard to lose, but when you’re the Dolphins, it’s hard to win.” The 1-7 Dolphins are also riding a seven-game losing streak, making this is a matchup between the two worst records in the AFC. Unlike the Texans, the Dolphins are competitive, having lost close games to the Colts/Jags/Falcons, and only getting pasted by the Bucs in their five most recent contests. Last week, the Dolphins lost a competitive game against the Bills, who scored a TD they didn’t need as time expired to win by fifteen. The spread closed at 14.5 for those keeping track. 

This week, the Dolphins draw a Texans team with a similar record, but a much weaker roster. The Texans are 16th in DVOA against the run, and 31st against the pass, presenting us a mini pass-funnel, but all are paths of least resistance against this talent deficient defense. The Dolphins have been attacking through the air since Tua Tagovailoa returned, attempting 47/40/39 passes in their last three games. There is no reason to think the Dolphins will lean away from how they’ve been playing, and it’s reasonable to expect the Fish to take a lead while throwing, before cruising down the stretch to victory. 

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has a reasonable total of 46.5 but only one side is expected to do much scoring, as the Texans can’t seem to ever produce a team total that breaks twenty points. How bad are you to be a seven-point dog against a 1-7 team? Texans bad. The most likely game flow in this one is that it follows a similar game script to all the Texans lopsided games. The Dolphins should move the ball against the Texans with relative ease, and the Texans will “try” to come back, before eventually giving up in the 4th quarter.


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DFS+ Interpretation ::

By LexMiraglia10 >>

Overview:

  • Matchup of teams whose only win came in W1
  • HOU actually looked half-competent with Tyrod Taylor (may return this week)

Tyrod Taylor / Davis Mills:

  • Mills has 9 TOs in 6.5 games
  • Mills has scored over 11 DK pts just twice, and one came after falling down 38-0 vs LAR
  • Tyrod’s 1.5 games: 291:2, 4:40 // 125:1, 1:25:1
  • MIA has allowed the 3rd most DK pts/g behind the most pass yds allowed
  • Josh Allen also added 90 yds, TD on the ground in his two matchups
  • 862 QBs on teams implied for fewer than 20 pts since 2014 have averaged 14.14 DK pts (1.84 below expectation) with a putrid 37.4% consistency

Brandin Cooks:

  • Cooks in 5.5 games with Mills: 4:28:1 // 9:112 // 5:47 // 3:23 // 9:89 // 5:21 // 6:83:1
  • Cooks in 1.5 games with Taylor: 5:132 // 5:50
  • Top performing WR vs MIA: Agholor (5:72:1) // Diggs (4:60:1) // Renfrow (5:77:1) // Pittman (6:59) // Brown (7:124:2), Evans (6:113:2) // MJJ (7:100:1) // Gage (4:67:1) // Beasley (10:110)
  • Cooks has 70 tg on the season; the next closest HOU WR is Collins with 19
  • Collins has 15 of his 19 tg in the last 3 weeks since returning from injury

HOU RBs:

  • First game without Ingram, rushing: Lindsay (3:8) // DJ (2:4) // Burk (4:21:1) // Phillips (5:11)
  • First game without Ingram, receiving: Lindsay (0) // DJ (1:-1) // Burk (3:27) // Phillips (2:9)

Tua Tagovailoa:

  • Pass att vs HOU: 51 // 24 // 34 // 30 // 30 // 20 // 28 // 32
  • Tua’s pass att: 27 // 47 // 40 // 39
  • Tua scored 25.4 & 28.5 in recent games vs pass defenses ranked 32nd & 29th in def pass DVOA
  • HOU ranks 16th in def pass DVOA
  • HOU has allowed the 4th highest pass yds/att and 15 TDs to 7 INT

MIA WRs:

  • WR targets in games together: Parker (43) // Waddle (43)
  • WR targets in Tua games: Parker (7, — , —, 11) // Waddle (6, 13, 8, 12)
  • Tua games: Parker (4:84 // 8:85) // Waddle (4:61:1 // 10:70:2 // 7:83 // 4:29)
  • HOU has allowed the 4th highest success rate & 4th highest yds/att to WRs
  • WRs with 70+ yds vs HOU: Chark (86:1), MJJ (77:1) // Moore (126) // Diggs (114), Sanders (74) // Hilton (80) // Kupp (115:1), Van (88)
  • HOU has allowed the 5th highest rate of explosive passes to WRs
  • HOU has allowed 20 deep completions on 31 deep WR targets
  • MIA deep WR targets: Parker (4 of 11) // Waddle (1 of 8) // Hollins (2 of 4)

Mike Gesicki:

  • TEs with 40+ yds vs HOU: O’Shag (48) // Bryant (49), Hooper (40) // Henry (75:1) // Ertz (66:1)
  • HOU has allowed six TE TDs
  • Gesicki yds since barely playing W1: 41 // 86 // 57:1 // 43 // 115 // 85:1 // 48
  • Gesicki tg with Parker playing: 2 // 6 // 12 // 6 // 4

Myles Gaskin:

  • Gaskin has just three games of 10+ att with a high of 15
  • Gaskin in those games: 13:65 // 15:67 // 12:36
  • Gaskin’s tg with Tua: 5, 6, 4, 4
  • Gaskin’s season high in touches is 19 (twice)
  • 14 RBs in eight games have topped 50 total yds vs HOU
  • RBs with 14+ rush att vs HOU: Singletary (14:79), Moss (14:61:1) // Harris (14:58:1) // Edmonds (15:81) // Henderson (14:90:1)