Game Overview ::
By papy324 >>
- Both QBs in this game offer some appeal as salary saver options.
- Volume is likely to pile up on the ground for both sides.
- The WRs on both sides of this game are a mess.
- Devonte Booker played 93% of the snaps last week and is priced below $6,000 on DK.
How las vegas Will Try To Win ::
The 5-2 Gruden-less Raiders come into this game having won two straight and sitting atop a division many predicted them to finish in last. Rather quietly, the Raiders have put up at least 26 points in every game since Week 2, outside of a total dud against the Bears. Derrick Carr is also silently playing the best football of his career, ranking 6th overall in Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR). DYAR is like WAR (Wins Above Replacement) in baseball and compares a player against a league-average replacement. Carr is sixth in the NFL in DYAR, behind only Stafford/Brady/Prescott/Murray/Rodgers. The Raiders were adaptable under John Gruden, and that hasn’t changed with his departure. This week, they draw the Giants, who are stronger against the pass (11th DOVA) than they are against the run (21st in DVOA), which should tilt the Raiders toward testing the Giants on the ground to start this game. The Raiders play at an above-average speed (12th in situational natural pace), but slow down when they’re winning (25th in pace when ahead), and there is a good chance they will be leading this game. The Raiders should remain balanced, attempting to gash the Giants defense on the ground to set up shots through the air.
How new york Will Try To Win ::
The 2-6 Giants are led by a coaching staff that is hoping to keep their jobs for the remainder of the season. The G-men have certainly been bit by the injury bug, but they are also vastly underperforming based on the talent on their roster. The Giants try to play fast (7th situational neutral pace), and maintain that pace when winning, but slow down (18th in pace when leading) if they are up on the scoreboard. The Giants are rarely winning, which means they tend to play most of their games at an elevated pace. Unfortunately, running a bunch of plays in a Jason Garrett offense usually means you’re running many plays that go nowhere.
The Raiders are about the same at defending the pass (19th in DVOA), as they are the run (13th in DVOA), which doesn’t create a clear path of least resistance. That’s perfect for Garrett, as he wouldn’t be looking for one anyway. Although the Raiders are slightly weaker against the pass, there is a good chance the Giants decide to run the ball. They limited Daniel Jones to 33/32 pass attempts the past two games, which resulted in a win, and a competitive loss. Garrett is the type of coach that will keep trying “what’s been working,” regardless of matchup. That type of thinking will lead Garrett to limit Jones’ attempts, even if the best way to win is by attacking the Raiders weak secondary.
Likeliest Game Flow ::
This game has a middling 46.5 total that has started to creep up on some sites early in the week. The game is expected to be competitive, and both defenses can be exploited. The most likely game flow has both teams trying to lean on the run (the Raiders because it makes sense, and the Giants because it has been working recently), which will take some of the air out of this game. The offenses are the better side of the ball on both sides, so points should come, but a shootout isn’t the most likely outcome.
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TEAM & PLAYER DK POINTS
DFS+ Interpretation ::
By LexMiraglia10 >>
- The Giants have scored under 20 offensive pts in 14/24 games with Garrett as OC
- The Giants have never scored 30 offensive pts with Garrett as OC
- Pts allowed by LV: 27 // 17 // 28 // 28 // 20 // 24 // 22
- In 24 Garrett games, Jones/McCoy/Glennon have scored 1 TD or less in 16 of them
- QB TDs vs LV: 1 // 1 // 1 // 3 // 1 // 3 // 2
- Teddy Bridgewater in heavy comeback mode is the only QB over 300 yds vs LV
- Since his four week hot start, Jones DK pts read: 4.8, 8.1, 17.5, 17.1
- LV has allowed the 14th fewest QB DK pts/g (19.3)
- QB rushing vs LV: Lamar (12:86) // Brissett (7:37:1) // Fields (3:4) // Hurts (13:61)
- Jones has 5 games this year of 25+ rush yds: 27:1 // 95:1 // 39 // 27 // 28
- The Giants main WRs just can’t seem to get healthy together in 2021, with no full games together since W2
- LV has allowed the 4th fewest WR DK pts
- WRs with 20+ DK pts vs LV: Diontae (22.5) // Sutton (23.4)
- Golladay, Shepard, Toney all have just one 20+ pt score this year each, and all are questionable to play in W9
- Booker without Saquon: 16:42:1, 3:16:1 // 12:41, 4:28 (Penny scored TD) // 14:51:1, 2:15 // 15:60, 5:65
- Saquon had 52/66 RB touches in his full games (52/63 att, 19/24 tg)
- Saquon’s targets with Garrett: 9 // 3 // 3 // 7 // 6
- Saquon’s total yds with Garrett: 66 // 27 // 69 // 94 // 126
- LV ranks 13th in def rush DVOA & has allowed the 5th lowest success rate on RB tg
- Ekeler is the only RB over 20 DK pts vs LV
- Carr’s top target (Waller) is still questionable, and his top WR (Ruggs) has been charged by the police
- None of Edwards, Renfrow, Jones can replicate Ruggs skillset in this offense
- Carr has passed for 300+ yds in 5/7 games this year, and has scored 2 TDs in 6/7 games this year
- QB TDs vs NYG: 2 // 2 // 2 // 3 // 3 // 4 // 0 // 1
- NYG rank 11th in def pass DVOA
- NYG have allowed the 9th most WR DK pts/g
- Renfrow has 10+ DK pts in 6/7 games, but just two games of 15+ pts (16.5, 18.7)
- Edwards season-high in DK pts is 13.3, and he has four games of sub-10 DK pts
- Edwards has one game of more than 5 tg in his career (6)
- Ruggs absence would vacate 5.1 tg/g
- Zay Jones aDOT is nearly the same as Ruggs (16.1 vs 16.9)
- NYG have allowed 4 TE TDs
- Top TEs vs NYG: Fant (6:62) // Thomas (5:45) // Pitts (2:35) // Johnson (2:20:1) // Schultz (6:79) // Higbee (5:36) // Kelce (4:27)
- Since W1’s 10 rec & 105 yds, Waller has just 4 or 5 rec in every game and one game over 60 yds (65)
- Waller saw 7+ targets in 11 games in 2020 (7 games over 10 targets)
- Waller’s 2021 targets: 19 // 7 // 7 // 7 // 8 // 5 // –
- Moreau went for 6:60:1 in Waller’s absence vs PHI
- Jacobs had six games with 20+ rush att in 2020 (five wins)
- Jacobs season-high in 2021 is 16 rush att
- 17 of Jacobs’s first 21 career TDs came in 8 games (2, 2, 2, 3, 2, 2, 2, 2); 3/4 of the 1-TD games came vs LAC
- Jacobs has now scored just one TD in three straight games, as Drake has scored 3 TDs in the last two games
- Drake hadn’t topped 8 rush att before his 14 in W8 after Jacobs left early
- Drake had 17 tg in the first three weeks
- Jacobs has out-targeted Drake 14 to 6 over the last four games
- RB rush att vs NYG: 25 // 17 // 19 // 33 // 35 // 30 // 15 // 24
- RBs with 70+ yds vs NYG: Gordon (118) // McKissic (93), Gibson (73) // CPatt (102), Davis (70) // Kamara (120) // Zeke (112), Pollard (103) // Henderson (107) // Williams (110)
- Games with 70+ yds in 2021: Jacobs (82) // Drake (70, 73, 79)
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