Browns (

22.75) at
Bengals (

24.75)

Game Overview ::

By MJohnson86 >>

• Both of these teams play at a plodding pace, meaning this game will need the offenses to be very efficient in order to take off.
• There is a lot of uncertainty on both sides of the ball in how they will choose to attack, and how successful they will be with those strategies.
• Cleveland’s defense has been “Jekyll and Hyde” this season and has been extremely matchup sensitive in its performance.
• Cincinnati is a team that has evolved throughout the season and is still in the process of settling on an identity.

How Cleveland Will Try To Win ::

The Browns have what many teams aspire for — an offensive identity. They rely on their running game, which is ranked #1 in DVOA and #1 in yards per carry, to wear teams down and control the clock. Even without Kareem Hunt the last few weeks, D’Ernest Johnson has stepped in admirably and allowed Cleveland to maintain their favored approach of using multiple backs which lets the Browns heavily rely on their backfield without running one player into the ground. The Browns also play at a plodding situation-neutral pace of 33.40 seconds per snap — 29th in the league. Their ability to run the ball, which keeps the clock moving, and take their time between plays makes for long drives that shorten games with fewer possessions. 

Through the air, Baker Mayfield is quietly 2nd in the league in average intended air yards, at 9.1 yards per attempt. Cleveland’s offense leverages the success of their running game by using high amounts of play-action passing and taking deep to intermediate shots. You will often hear of teams “using short passes as an extension of the running game”, but Cleveland’s offense is not designed like that — at least usually that’s not the case. However, the Browns primarily have two players who have more explosive abilities that can be used effectively down the field: Odell Beckham Jr. (OBJ) and Donovan Peoples-Jones (DPJ). OBJ has essentially been kicked off the team and DPJ is nursing a groin injury that has kept him out of the last two games. 

After watching Mike White and the Jets dice up the Bengals by spreading them out and peppering them with short passes, perhaps the Browns look to employ a similar attack this week. It is a strategy that would make sense as they have good pass catching tight ends, solid options out of the backfield, and their wide receiver room is made up of possession-style receivers. Also, the Browns will be without All-Pro tackle Jack Conklin, which means they will likely have less success than usual running the ball. The lack of downfield threats for the Browns will make it more difficult to take shots down the field through play-action, thereby forcing them to spread the field and stretch the defense horizontally through quick passes and misdirections.

How Cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

Cincinnati’s yearlong stats don’t necessarily tell the whole story of the team they currently are. The Bengals started the year relying on their running game and protecting their franchise QB, Joe Burrow, who was returning from an ACL injury. They have gradually picked up the pace with their passing, however, and have thrown at the 4th highest rate in the league over the last two weeks. Now they are entering a Week 9 matchup with a Browns defense that provides some clear “pass funnel” features and whose performance has been very matchup dependent so far this season. What I mean by that is this:

• KC, ARI, and LAC vs Cleveland defense — 39 points per game (ppg)
• HOU, CHI, MIN, DEN, PIT vs Cleveland defense — 12.6 ppg

The Browns defense as a unit has some talent and can be very good. However, they have been torched by some of the better offenses in the league. This makes sense, as a unit that relies on personnel outplaying their opponents will be able to overwhelm outmatched teams. Unfortunately, when their talent advantage is neutralized, this appears to be a team that has a lot of schematic flaws and communication issues that well-coached teams can take advantage of. Cleveland ranks 3rd in DVOA against the run while struggling to the tune of the #25 ranking against the pass. The way things line up, Cincinnati is going to be incentivized to continue their recent increase in pass rate in this matchup. What we want to figure out is how successful they will be in taking to the air, which it appears depends on which group from above you think they belong in. If we break those teams down by quarterback, this is what it looks like:

• Mahomes, Murray, Herbert — 39 ppg
• Tyrod, Fields, Cousins, Bridgewater, Roethlisberger — 12.6 ppg

In my opinion, Joe Burrow is clearly better at this point than every quarterback in the bottom group and is playing at a level recently that would put him at least very close to the top group. My lean is that the Bengals, with their talented receiving corps and backfield, will be able to have a lot of offensive success and move the ball against this Browns team.

Likeliest Game flow ::

This is a big game for both teams and they are both average to above average on both sides of the ball. However, it is also true that none of the four units (CLE D, CLE O, CIN D, CIN O) are juggernauts that will clearly dictate how this game plays out. These teams rank 29th and 30th in situation-neutral pace and both are also top-10 in the league in run rate. However, there are clear signs laid out above that would lead us to believe that at least one of those things (run rate) will change on one or both sides of the ball this week. 

The Browns are going to slow this game down if they can — that’s just how they are built and how they’d prefer to play. Ultimately the pace, scoring, and volume that this game sees will depend on the success of the Bengals — specifically their passing game. You can look at the splits I laid out in the Cincinnati section and, based on where you feel the Bengals passing game fits in, that should give you a decent idea of how to approach this spot. If the Bengals are able to move the ball efficiently and vertically early in the game, they could build a quick lead and force the Browns to copy the Jets attack from last week with quick, spread passing. There is also a chance that the Browns lean that way from the start — when the 28th ranked offense in the league just dropped 34 points on the team you are about to play, you may want to take notice and attack similarly. In either regard, if the Browns pass rate rises and the Bengals have early success throwing the ball this game could greatly exceed expectations. The Jets, who have been one of the more plodding offenses this season, had a whopping 78 offensive plays last week against the Bengals.

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DFS+ Interpretation ::