Game Overview ::
By mjohnson86 >>
- Clear avenues to attack for both teams, through the air for the Chargers and on the ground for the Eagles.
- Both teams are at a critical point in their seasons as they try to jockey for postseason position.
- Two rookie head coaches that have had very different perceptions from outsiders based on their first few weeks in charge. Staley is well-liked and heavily focused on analytics, while Sirianni seems to do or say something head-scratching every other week that causes people inside and outside the organization to question his abilities.
How los angeles Will Try To Win ::
Philadelphia has been a very inconsistent defensive team this year but there has been some consistency in the situations they thrive in, as opposed to those where they struggle. They have given up four or more touchdowns in half of their games (against the Cowboys, Chiefs, Buccaneers, and Raiders) while holding their opponents to two or fewer touchdowns in the other half of their games (against the Falcons, 49ers, Panthers, and Lions). This week, the Chargers come to town equipped with explosive offensive pieces and a young stud QB. While the Chargers have struggled to get going the last couple of weeks against the Patriots and Ravens, they should be able to get things moving again in this matchup.
The Chargers throw the ball at the fourth highest situation-neutral rate in the league through eight weeks, which is no surprise considering they have two high profile wide receivers, an elite all-purpose running back, and an ascending star at QB. I would expect the Chargers to continue throwing at a high rate in this game, and to continue playing at the second-highest situation-neutral pace in the league, 28.13 seconds per snap. The teams that have taken it to Philadelphia offensively have done a majority of their damage underneath and in the intermediate areas, as the Eagles play a lot of deep zone and give a lot of two-high safety looks in coverage. Tyreek Hill got loose on them in Week 4, but other than that, the damage they give up is mostly from accurate quarterbacks picking them apart. Derek Carr and Tom Brady had combined for a 65 for 76 passing line — an insane 85.5% completion rate — in the two weeks prior to the Eagles Week 8 throttling of the Lions. Carr and Brady also combined for 8.2 yards per passing attempt so it isn’t like the Eagles were just giving up short dump-offs that inflated the completion percentage.
Ekeler should see something in the range of 12 to 15 carries with the Chargers spelling him for another five to eight carries from his backups, but this game will be primarily attacked through the air. Keenan Allen is so good at finding openings underneath against these types of teams, and Mike Williams has settled into his “X” receiver role this year that makes him more than a deep threat. Add Ekeler’s usage and explosiveness in the passing game, and some athletic tight ends to the mix, and Herbert should be dealing.
How philadelphia Will Try To Win ::
The Eagles had their best all-around game of the year in Week 8 as they took it to the Lions, and took some heat off QB Jalen Hurts and Head Coach Nick Sirianni. Now they return home to “The Linc” to try to prove to the Philly faithful that it wasn’t just a fluke. With the NFL moving to a 17 game season and now having seven playoff spots in each conference, the Eagles are still very much alive to make the playoffs at 3-5 despite their rocky (to say the least) first half of the season. The Eagles are only a game behind the current seven-seed, the Panthers, who they also hold a tie-breaker over. The Eagles also get to play the Giants and Washington two times each, so if they can get out of here with a win, they could be in great position to make a run down the stretch.
The Eagles should have a clear plan of how they should attack this matchup. After passing at a top 10 rate through the first six weeks of the season, the Eagles have altered direction significantly the last two weeks including an insane 46 rushing attempts to only 16 pass attempts in Week 8. While a lot of that was driven by game script last week, the Eagles will no doubt recognize they played their best game of the season when they leaned on the run, and they are facing the Chargers league-worst run defense. The Eagles will likely also look to use Jalen Hurts on designed runs as the Chargers struggled to contain Lamar Jackson a couple weeks ago and are built to deter deep passing and force teams to the ground. The Eagles offensive struggles this year have almost all been due to putting too much on Hurts plate in the passing game and forcing him to do things he isn’t as comfortable with. In this spot, the Eagles should be able to move the ball well on the ground and let Hurts find short-area openings in the passing game from favorable down and distance situations.
Likeliest Game Flow ::
This game has a LOT of potential for explosiveness and offensive production. Both offenses have playmakers and a clear path to attack that, in theory, will offer very little resistance. As the highest game total on the main slate, and basically being a “pick ‘em,” this game has a lot of “Week 8 Titans vs. Colts” vibes to it. Both offenses operate at a top-five situation-neutral pace so even if the Eagles turn run-heavy, there should be enough plays to go around. The game projects to stay close, which would be good for a potential back and forth shootout. If it doesn’t stay close, either scenario below would also provide a lot of fantasy appeal:
- If the Chargers pull ahead it would just turn the Eagles to a more aggressive approach while the Chargers would still lean on the pass as the easiest way to move the ball and sustain drives; also, Brandon Staley is analytically minded and not the type of coach who is likely to just “sit” on a lead early.
- If the Eagles jump out to a lead, the Chargers would likely abandon the run almost entirely and turn their tempo up to even higher levels. Of the two offenses, the Eagles have the higher likelihood of laying an egg, which means that in a scenario where they score points early, it raises the floor of the entire game as it eliminates a “complete dud that drags down the Chargers” scenario.
TOP PLAYS OF THE WEEKEND
SORTABLE GREEN ZONE TOUCHES
TEAM & PLAYER DK POINTS
DFS+ Interpretation ::
By LexMiraglia10 >>
- Hurts passing first 4 g: 264:3 // 190:0 // 326:2:2 // 387:2
- Hurts passing last 4 g: 198:0:1 // 115:1:1 // 236:2 // 103:0
- Pass yds vs LAC: 135 // 237 // 260 // 196 // 305 // 167 // 218
- Only SF & BUF have allowed fewer pass yds
- Hurts rushing in 12 starts: 18:106 // 11:63:1 // 9:69 // 8:34:2 // 7:62 // 10:82:1 // 9:35 // 8:47 // 9:30:2 // 10:44:2 // 13:61 // 7:71
- QB rushing vs LAC: Heinicke (3:17) // Mahomes (4:45) // Lamar (8:51)
- LAC has allowed the 4th fewest QB DK pts/g
- PHI WR tg: Smith (56) // Reagor (32) // Watkins (28)
- LAC has allowed 2.5 WR DK pts/g less than the next closest team (26.3 DK pts/g)
- Smith’s only 20+ pt score came against a KC defense allowing 36.8 WR DK pts/g
- No WR has scored 20 DK pts vs LAC this year
- Goedert had a season-high in rec & yds in his first game without Ertz (6:72)
- Goedert received 7 targets on 14 Hurts pass att in W8
- TEs vs LAC: Thomas (3:30:1) // Jarwin (3:37) // Kelce (7:104) // Waller (4:50:1) // Njoku (7:149:1) // Andrews (5:68:1) // Henry (1:33)
- RB rush att without Sanders: Gainwell (13) // Scott (12) // Howard (12)
- Gainwell received most of his touches late in garbage time
- RB rush yds with 12+ att vs LAC: Gibson (90) // Zeke (71:1), Pollard (109:1) // CEH (100) // Jacobs (40) // Chubb (161:1), Hunt (61:2) // Harris (80:1)
- LAC ranks 4th in def rush DVOA
- PHI ranks 12th in def pass DVOA
- Carr is the only QB with 300+ pass yds vs PHI
- PHI has played weaker QBs much tougher, while allowing Dak (3 TD), Mahomes (5 TD), Brady (2 TD) to have much bigger games
- PHI has 6 INT
- Herbert has 16 TDs to 6 INT on season
- Herbert has more games below 20 DK pts this year (4) than above (3), and all three came in a 3-game stretch Wks 3-5 (30.8, 21.3, 45.8)
- Keenan’s yds by week: 100 // 108 // 50 // 36 // 75 // 50 // 77
- Keenan’s DK score by W9 salary multiplier: 3.3 // 2.7 // 2.8 // 1.6 // 2.0 // 1.5 // 2.9
- His highest score was 22 in W1
- PHI has allowed the 3rd fewest WR DK pts/g
- Williams has games of 22.2 // 22.1 // 36.2 // 39.5 DK pts
- His other three games: 2.1 // 4.7 // 3.9
- Keenan leads in tg 69 to 61, but Williams has had the high ceiling games
- Elite WRs vs PHI: Ridley (5:51) // Deebo (6:93) // Lamb (3:66), Cooper (3:26) // Hill (11:186:3) // Moore (5:42) // Brown (9:93:1), Godwin (5:43), Evans (2:27)
- Keenan has spent 54.5% of his snaps in the slot
- Williams has spent 86% of his snaps on the outside
- Darius Slay has spent 88% of his snaps as an outside CB
- Cook has topped 30 yds just twice all year, and not since W4
- Three LAC TEs have caught at least one pass in three separate games
- RZ targets: Cook (5) // Parham (2) // Anderson (1)
- PHI has allowed 6 TE TDs
- PHI ranks 22nd in def rush DVOA
- PHI has allowed the 2nd highest success rate on RB targets
- Ekeler’s touches (att, tg): (15, 0) // (9, 9) // (11, 6) // (15, 5) // (17, 5) // (6, 7) // (11, 10)
- So in total: 15 // 18 // 17 // 20 // 22 // 13 // 21
- RBs with 15+ touches vs PHI (total yds:TDs): Davis (72) // Mitchell (53) // Zeke (116:2) // CEH (114:1) // Chuba (134) // Fournette (127:2) // Drake (79:1) // Swift (51)
- PHI has allowed the 2nd most DK pts/g to RBs (31.3)
- Ekeler has scored 22+ DK pts in 5/7 games: 22.5, 22.7, 32.5, 33.9, 24.4
- He scored 2 & 3 TDs in the two 30+ pt scores
- LAC leading scorers in the two Ekeler didn’t score 22+: Williams (22.2), Keenan (22) // Cook (12.5), Keenan (10)
- LAC pts in the 5 good games: 17 // 30 // 28 // 47 // 24
- LAC pts in the 2 bad games: 20 // 6